Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

A limit order allows investors to buy or sell securities at a price they specify or better, providing some price protection on trades.

When you set a buy limit order, for example, the trade will only be executed at that price or lower. For sell limit orders, the order will be executed at the price you set or higher. By using certain types of orders, traders can potentially reduce their risk of losses and avoid unpredictable swings in the market.

Table of Contents

How do Limit Orders Work?

In the simplest terms, limit orders work as a sort of restriction that an investor can choose (to either buy or sell) with “limits” on a minimum or maximum price. An investor places an order to buy a stock at a minimum price, for instance, or places an order to sell at a maximum price, in an effort to maximize their returns.

There are two types of limit orders investors can execute: buy limit orders and limit sell orders. An important thing to know is that while a limit order specifies a desired price, it doesn’t guarantee the trade will occur at that price — or at all.

When you set a limit order, the trade will only be executed if and when the security meets the terms of the order — which may or may not happen, depending on the overall market conditions. So, when an investor sets a limit order, it’s possible to miss out on other investing opportunities.

Types of Limit Orders

As mentioned, there are two types of limit orders investors can execute: buy limit orders and limit sell orders.

For buy limit orders, you’re essentially setting a ceiling for the trade — i.e. the highest price you’d be willing to pay for each share. For sell limit orders, you’re setting a price floor — i.e. the lowest amount you’d be willing to accept per share.

•   What is limit order to buy? If a trader places a buy limit order, the intention is to buy shares of stock. The order will be triggered when the stock hits the limit price or lower.

For example, you may want to buy shares of XYZ stock at $15 each. You could place a buy limit order that would allow the trade to be carried out automatically if the stock reaches that purchase price or better.

•   What is limit order to sell? If a trader places a limit order to sell, the order will be triggered when the stock hits the limit price or higher. So you could set a sell limit order to sell XYZ stock once its share price hits $20 or higher.

As noted above, the main upside of using limit orders is that traders get to name a desired price; they generally end up paying a price they expect; and they can set an order to execute a trade that can be executed even if they are doing other things.

In this way, setting limit orders can help traders seize opportunities they might otherwise miss because limit orders can stay open for months or in some cases indefinitely (the industry term is “good ‘til canceled,’ or GTC). The limit order will still execute the trade once the terms are met.

Limit Order vs Market Order

Limit orders differ from market orders, which are, essentially, orders to buy a security immediately at its given price. These are the most common types of orders. So, while a market order is executed immediately regardless of terms, limit orders only execute under certain circumstances.

Limit orders can also be set for pre-market and after-hours trading sessions. Market orders, by contrast, are limited to standard trading hours (9:30am to 4pm ET).

Remember: Even though limit orders are geared to a specific price, that price isn’t guaranteed. First, limit orders are generally executed on a first-come-first-served basis. So there may be orders ahead of yours that eliminate the availability of shares at your limit price.

And it bears repeating again: There is also the potential for missed opportunities: The limit order you set could trigger a trade. But then the stock or other security might hit an even better price.

In other words, time is a factor. In today’s market, computer algorithms execute the majority of stock market trades. In this high-tech trading environment, it can be hard as an individual trader to know when to buy and sell. By using certain types of orders, like limit orders, traders can potentially limit their losses, lock in gains, and avoid swings in the market.

Though limit orders are commonly used as a part of day trading strategies, they can be useful for any investor who wants some price protection around their trades. For example, if you think a stock is currently undervalued, you could purchase it at the current market price, then set a sell limit order to automatically sell it when the price goes up. Again, the limit order can stay open until the security meets your desired price — or you cancel the order.

However, speculating in the market can be risky and having experience can be helpful when deciding how and when to set limit orders.
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Limit Orders vs Stop Orders

There is another type of order that can come into play when you’re trying to control the price of a trade: a stop order. A stop order is similar to a limit order in that you set your desired price for a stock, say, and once the stock hits that price or goes past it, a market order is triggered to execute the purchase or sale.

The terms of a limit order are different in that a trade will be executed if the stock hits the specified price or better. So if you want to sell XYZ stock for $50 a share, a sell limit order will be triggered once the stock hits $50 or higher.

A stop order triggers a market order once XYZ stock hits $50, period. By the time the order is executed, the actual stock price could be higher or lower.

Thus with a stop order there’s also no guarantee that you’ll get the specified price. A market order is submitted once the stop price is hit, but in fast-moving markets the actual price you pay might end up being higher or lower.

Stop orders are generally used to exit a position and to minimize losses, whereas limit orders are used to capture gains. But two can also be used in conjunction with each other with something called a stop-limit order.

Stop-Limit Orders

A stop-limit order is a combination of a stop order and a limit order. Stop-limit orders involve setting two prices. For example: A stock is currently priced at $30 and a trader believes it’s going to go up in value, so they set a buy stop order of $33.

When the stock hits $33, a market order to buy will be triggered. But with a stop-limit order, the trader can also set a limit price, meaning the highest price they’re willing to pay per share — say, $35 per share. Using a stop-limit order gives traders an additional level of control.

Stop-limit orders can also help traders make sure they sell stocks before they go down significantly in value. Let’s say a trader purchased stock XYZ at $40 per share, and now anticipates the price will drop. The trader doesn’t want to lose more than $5 per share, so they set a stop order for $35.

If the stock hits $35 — the stop price — the stock will be triggered to sell. However, the price could continue to drop before the trade is fully executed. To prevent selling at a much lower price than $35, the trader can set a limit order to only sell between $32 and $35.

When a Trader Might Use a Limit Order

There are several reasons why you might want to use a limit order.

•   Price protection. When a stock is experiencing volatility, you may not want to risk placing a market order and getting a bad price. Although it’s unlikely that the price will change drastically within a few seconds or minutes after placing an order, it can happen, and setting a limit order can set a floor or a ceiling for the price you want.

•   Convenience. Another occasion to use a limit order might be when you’re interested in buying or selling a stock but you don’t want to keep a constant eye on the price. By setting a limit order, you can walk away and wait for it to be executed. This might also be a good choice for longer-term positions, since in some cases traders can place a limit order with no expiration date.

•   Volatility. Third, an investor may choose to set a limit order if they are buying or selling at the end of the market day or after the stock market has closed. Company or world news could be announced while the market is closed, which could affect the stock’s price when the market reopens. If the investor isn’t able to cancel a market order while the market is still closed, they may not be happy with the results of the trade. A limit order can help prevent that.

Limit orders can also be useful when the stock being traded doesn’t have a lot of liquidity. If there aren’t many people trading the stock, one order could affect the price. When entering a market order, that trade could cause the price to go up or down significantly, and a trader could end up with a different price than intended.

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When to Consider a Market Order vs a Limit Order

If you’re trying to parse out when a market order or a limit order is the best tool to use, consider the following.

A trader might want to use a market order if:

•   Executing the trade immediately is a priority

•   The stock is highly liquid

•   They’re only trading a small number of shares

•   The stock has a narrow bid-ask spread (about a penny)

A trader might want to use a limit order if:

•   They want to specify their price

•   They are trading an illiquid stock

•   They want to set a long-term trade (or even walk away for their lunch break and still have the trade execute)

•   They feel a stock is currently over- or undervalued

•   The stock has a large bid-ask spread

•   They are trading a larger number of shares

How to Set a Limit Order

When placing a limit order with your brokerage firm, the broker or trading platform might ask for the following information:

•   The stock or security

•   Is it a buy or sell order

•   Number of shares to buy or sell

•   Stock order type (limit order, market order, or another type of order)

•   Price

When setting up a limit order, the trader can set it to remain open indefinitely, (until the stock reaches the limit price), or they can set an expiration date.

For example, say a trader would like to purchase 100 shares of stock XYZ. The highest price they want to pay per share is $26.75. They would set up a limit buy order like this:

Buy 100 shares XYZ limit 26.75.

Is a Limit Order Bad?

Limit orders are not necessarily good or bad. As mentioned, they can offer advantages to investors who understand how to use them.

For example, limit orders can offer more control and flexibility than using market orders. And they can work well in a number of different trading situations. If the stock being traded is highly volatile, for instance, a limit order can help traders retain control and avoid paying an unexpected price.

Each time a trader does research on a stock and decides to buy or sell shares, they also consider their goals and the current market conditions to decide whether to place a market or a limit order.

Pros and Cons of Using Limit Orders

Each type of order has pros and cons depending on the particular situation.

Pros of Limit Orders:

•   The trader gets to name their price. One of the chief reasons traders rely on limit orders is to set baselines for profits and losses. They won’t end up paying a price they didn’t expect when they buy or get a price below their target when it’s time to sell.

•   The trader can set the order and walk away. Day trading can be time consuming and it requires a significant amount of knowledge. Investors who use limit orders don’t have to continuously watch the market to get the price they want.

•   Traders may pay less in fees. Commissions can take a bite out of your profits, something many investors would prefer to keep to a minimum. When trading illiquid stocks, sometimes the bid-ask spread is enough to cover broker fees.

•   Insulate against volatility. Volatility can cause you to make emotional decisions. Limit orders can give traders more control over their portfolio and ward off panic-buying or selling.

•   Ride the gaps. Stock prices can fluctuate overnight due to after hours trading. It’s possible to benefit from price differences from one day to another when using limit orders.

For example, if a trader places a buy limit order for a stock at $3.50, but the order doesn’t get triggered while the market is open, the price could change overnight. If the market opens at $3.30 the next morning, they’ll get a better price, since the buy limit order gets triggered if the stock is at or below the specified price.

Cons of Limit Orders:

•   The order may never be executed. There may not be enough supply or demand to fulfill the order even if it reaches the limit price, since there could be hundreds or even thousands of other traders wanting to buy or sell at the specified price.

•   The stock may never reach the limit price. For example, if a stock is currently priced at $20, a trader might set a limit order to buy at $15. If the stock goes down to $16 and then back up to $20, the order won’t execute. In this case, they would miss out on potential gains.

•   The market can change significantly. If a trader sets a shorter-term limit order they might miss out on a better price. For example, if a stock a trader owns is currently priced at $150, the trader may choose to set a sell limit order at $154 within four weeks. If the company then makes a big announcement about a new product after that period, and the stock’s price spikes to $170, the trader would miss out on selling at that higher price.

•   It takes experience to understand the market and set limit orders. New investors can miss out on opportunities and experience unwanted losses, as with any type of investment.

What Happens If a Limit Order Is Not Filled?

A limit order can only be filled if the stock’s price reaches the limit price or better. If this doesn’t happen, then the order is not executed and it expires according to the terms of the contract. An order can be good just for a single trading day, for a certain period of time, or in some cases it’s possible to leave the limit order open-ended using a GTC (good ‘til canceled) provision.

So if you placed a buy limit order, but the stock does not reach the specified price or lower, the purchase would not be completed and the order would expire within the specified time frame.

And if you’re using a sell limit order, but the security never reaches the specified sell price or higher, the shares would remain in your trading account and the order would expire.
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Limit Orders and Price Gaps

Price gaps can occur when stocks close at one price then open at a different price on the next trading day. This can be attributed to after-market or pre-market trading that occurs after the regular market hours have ended. After-hours trading can impact stock price minimally or more substantially, depending on what’s spurring trades.

For example, say news of a large tech company’s planned merger with another tech giant leaks after hours. That could send the aftermarket trading markets into a frenzy, resulting in a radically different price for both company’s stocks when the market reopens. Pricing gaps don’t necessarily have to be wide but large pricing swings are possible with overnight trading.

Limit orders can help to downplay the potential for losses associated with pricing gaps. Placing a buy limit order or limit sell order may not close the gap entirely. But it could help to mitigate the losses you may experience when gaps in pricing exist. Whether the gap is moving up or down can determine what type of limit order to place and where to cap your limit price.

The Takeaway

Limit orders can be an effective and efficient way for investors to set price caps on their trades, and also give them some protection against market swings. Limit orders offer other advantages as well, including giving traders the ability to place longer- or shorter-term trades that will be executed even if they’re not continuously watching the market. This can potentially protect investors against losses and potentially lock in gains.

That said, limit orders are complicated because they don’t guarantee that the trade will be executed at the set price. The stock (or other security) could hit the limit price — and there might not be enough supply or demand to complete the trade. There is also the potential for some missed opportunities, if the price you set triggers a trade, and subsequently the stock or other security hits an even better price.

Investors can also consider combining a limit order with a stop order. A stop-limit order can provide even more protection against potential losses.

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FAQ

Can I specify the price for a limit order?

Yes, investors can specify the price for a limit order. In fact, the price typically is the limit in a limit order, representing either a price ceiling or a price floor.

How long does a limit order stay active?

Generally, a limit order will stay active indefinitely, unless an investor cancels it or specifies otherwise. That means that if the limit is never reached, the order will not execute, and the limit order will remain active until the limit is reached.

Can I cancel a limit order once it’s placed?

Investors can cancel standing limit orders as long as conditions haven’t arrived that’s led to the order being actively executed. The cancelation process will depend on the specific exchange an investor is using, however.

What happens if the market price doesn’t reach my limit price?

If the market price of a stock does not reach the limit price — either a price floor or price ceiling — then the limit order will not execute, and the limit order will remain active until it does.

Can I place a limit order outside of regular trading hours?

It’s possible to place limit orders outside of regular trading hours, depending on the rules of a given exchange, and market conditions dictate. The order itself, of course, won’t execute until the market opens, assuming that the limit is reached.

Are there any fees associated with limit orders?

There may or may not be fees associated with limit orders, and it’ll depend on the specific exchange or brokerage an investor is using. Note that some brokerages may charge higher fees for limit orders than market orders — but some may charge no fees at all.

Are limit orders guaranteed to be executed?

No, there is no guarantee that a limit order will be executed, as it will only execute if the limit price is reached. If the limit is not reached, the order will remain active but not execute.


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Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

When it comes to the Los Angeles housing market, the numbers speak volumes.

As we navigate the contours of 2023, the Los Angeles housing market continues to dominate conversations, not just among locals but also among potential buyers, sellers and investors nationwide. Recent data shows a complex narrative: a market that is both competitive and costly, while simultaneously in a state of flux.

While the towering home prices persist in their upward trajectory, a marked reduction in the volume of homes actually changing hands year-over-year offers a nuanced and intriguing subplot.

Climbing the million-dollar ladder

As of July 2023, the median sale price for a home in LA sits at an astonishing $1 million. This represents a 4.3% elevation since the previous year.

To place this figure in a broader frame, the median sale price in Los Angeles is a whopping 132% higher than the national average. But it’s not just the overall home prices that have climbed; even the cost per square inch is inflating. The median price per square foot has ascended to $627, a 2.0% increase from last year.

Market dynamics

In the Los Angeles housing market, homes don’t linger. The average home is sold after a mere 37 days on the market, a slight but meaningful increase from 35 days in the prior year. This suggests that while the market remains fiercely competitive, it is not a feeding frenzy. On average, homes in Los Angeles receive three offers.

However, adding a layer of complexity, the number of homes sold in July 2023 reached only 1,477, plummeting 18.8% from the same period last year. These numbers indicate a fascinating conundrum: Although the demand is astronomical, supply is staggering behind, making it predominantly a sellers’ market — but with intriguing twists.

How competitive is the Los Angeles housing market?

Measuring competition in any market is complex, but when it comes to the Los Angeles housing market, there are some quantifiable indicators. According to the Redfin Compete Score™, the market ranks as “somewhat competitive.” The average home here is sold for approximately 1% above the listing price.

Migration and relocation trends

The Los Angeles housing market isn’t solely affected by prices and competition; it’s also swayed by the tides of migration. Between June and August 2023, a considerable 81% of LA homebuyers expressed intentions to remain in the metropolitan area, affirming their loyalty to the City of Angels.

Conversely, 19% are looking to spread their wings and fly to other destinations, with Las Vegas, San Diego and Bakersfield topping the list. However, Los Angeles continues to exert its magnetic pull, drawing in new residents chiefly from San Francisco, followed by Chicago and New York.

LA’s housing market at a glance

The Los Angeles housing market of 2023 is an intricate choreography of rising prices, intense yet waning competition and fluctuating migration patterns. For prospective buyers, the city’s market poses challenges, but they are not insurmountable walls. Sellers, too, need to navigate carefully. The diminishing number of homes sold indicates a potential saturation point or perhaps signs of buyer fatigue.

For everyone involved — whether you’re an investor eyeing long-term gains, a first-time buyer looking to plant roots or a seller aiming to capitalize on high prices — knowledge is power. Staying abreast of the ongoing trends and dynamics in the Los Angeles housing market is not just advisable; it’s imperative. After all, in a market as multifaceted as this, understanding the lay of the land can make all the difference.

The Los Angeles rental market

While the focus has largely been on home buying and selling, the rental sector adds another complex layer to the Los Angeles housing market. As one of the most sought-after places to live in the country, it’s no surprise that Los Angeles’ rental rates are a significant talking point as well.

Average rent and annual changes

The average rent for a studio apartment in the City of Angels hovers at $2,421, marking a 3% increase from the prior year. One-bedroom apartments haven’t been left behind in this upward trajectory, clocking in an average rent of $2,905, which also reflects a 3% annual increment. Two-bedroom apartments, meanwhile, cost an average of $3,894, but have seen a more modest annual growth of 1%.

This data paints a picture of a rental market that, much like its home-owning counterpart, experiences its fair share of challenges and costs. Apartments in Los Angeles are not for those hunting for bargains, with the average rent ranging between $2,421 and $3,894.

Rent ranges

The Los Angeles rental market shows an overwhelming skew towards the higher-end. While 0% of apartments rent in the $501-$1,000 range, a staggering 80% of them command a rent north of $2,100. This underscores the upward pressure on the cost of living in Los Angeles and speaks volumes about the limited affordability.

Neighborhoods

When it comes to neighborhoods, Bel Air tops the list for studio apartments with an average rent of $3,695. On the other hand, areas like Beverly Grove and Westwood Village have seen decreases in average rent by 11% and 14% respectively. Silicon Beach, however, is bucking the trend with an 18% annual increase, echoing the tech boom that the area is experiencing.

For those looking for more budget-friendly options, South Park, South LA and Crenshaw offer average one-bedroom rents ranging from $1,650 to $1,900, compared to the Los Angeles average of $2,905 for a one-bedroom.

Comparing Los Angeles to nearby cities

In terms of rent, Los Angeles still commands a premium compared to other nearby cities. For instance, a studio apartment in Santa Monica averages $3,540 with a 6% annual increase, while the same in Long Beach costs $2,850 but has soared by 37% in the past year. Glendale stands at $2,755 for a studio, with an 8% rise.

Understanding the trends

The fluctuating rental rates over the past year indicate a market that’s anything but static. For instance, studio rents went from $2,302 in September 2022 to peak at $2,422 in July 2023 before slightly reducing. Similar patterns are observed for one-bedroom and two-bedroom apartments, showing the market’s elasticity and potential volatility.

The Los Angeles rental market at a glance

The rental landscape in Los Angeles is a vital part of the overall housing market, influencing and influenced by similar factors like location, demand and economic status. Whether you’re a potential tenant eyeing the city’s ritzy neighborhoods or someone seeking more affordable options, the Los Angeles rental market provides a plethora of choices — albeit at a generally high price point.

For individuals and families not yet ready to commit to homeownership, or those who prefer the flexibility that renting provides, understanding the dynamics of the rental market is as crucial as grasping the trends in home buying and selling.

When you’re ready to enter LA as a local, there will be an apartment waiting for you on Rent.

Rent prices are based on an average from Rent.’s multifamily rental property inventory as of July 2023.
Other demographic data comes from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The rent information included in this article is used for illustrative purposes only. The data contained herein do not constitute financial advice or a pricing guarantee for any apartment.

Source: rent.com

Apache is functioning normally

Apache is functioning normally

At last glance, 30-year fixed mortgage rates were sitting above 7%. Despite this, there are virtually no homes for sale.

One would assume that after such a massive interest rate spike, demand would flounder and supply would flood the market.

Yet here we are, looking at a housing market that has barely any for-sale inventory available.

And when you remove the new home inventory (from home builders) from the equation, it’s even worse.

Let’s explore what’s going on and what it might take to see listings return to the market.

Why There Are No Homes for Sale Right Now?

The housing market is highly unusual at the moment, and has been for quite some time.

In fact, since the pandemic it’s never really been normal. The housing market came to a halt in early 2020 as the world stopped, but then took off like a rocket.

If you recall, the 30-year fixed spent the entire second half of 2020 in the sub-3% range, fueling voracious demand from buyers.

And as Zillow pointed out, the age demographics had already lined up nicely for a surge of demand anyway.

Around that time, some 45 million Americans were expected to hit the typical first-time home buyer age of 34.

When you combined the demographics, the record low mortgage rates, a pandemic (which allowed for increased mobility), and already limited inventory, it didn’t take much to create a frenzy.

At the same time, you had existing homeowners buying up second homes on the cheap, due to those low rates and generous underwriting guidelines.

And let’s not forget investors, who were taking advantage of the very accommodative interest rate environment and the insatiable demand from buyers.

The rise of Airbnb and short-term rentals (STRs) coincided with this low-rate environment, potentially taking additional inventory off the market.

This quickly depleted supply, which was already trending down thanks to a lack of new home building after the prior mortgage crisis.

Home builders got burned in the early 2000s as foreclosures and short sales spiked and prices plummeted. And their excess supply sat on the market.

As a result, they developed cold feet and didn’t build enough in subsequent years to keep up with the growing housing needs of Americans.

Collectively, all of these events led to the massive housing supply shortage.

Low Mortgage Rates Got Buyers in the Door, But Will They Ever Leave?

Low supply aside, another unique issue affecting housing supply is a concept known as mortgage rate lock-in.

In short, there’s an argument that today’s homeowners have such low mortgage rates that they won’t sell. Or can’t sell.

Either they don’t want to give up their low mortgage rate simply because it’s so cheap. Or they are unable to afford a home purchase at today’s rates and prices.

Simply put, most can’t trade in a 3% rate for a 7% rate and purchase a home that’s probably more expensive than theirs was a few years earlier.

And this isn’t some tiny subset of the population. Per Freddie Mac, nearly two-thirds of all mortgages have an interest rate below 4%.

And nearly a quarter have a mortgage rate below 3%. How on earth will these folks sell and buy a replacement home if prices haven’t come down, but have in fact risen?

The answer is most will not budge, and will continue to enjoy their low, fixed-rate mortgage for many years to come.

This further explains why inventory is so tight and not really improving, despite the Fed’s attack on housing demand via 11 rate hikes.

[Why are home prices not dropping?]

Housing Supply Is at an All-Time Low

Redfin reported that the total number of homes for sale hit a record low in August.

Active listings were down 1.1% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, and a whopping 20.8% year-over-year.

That’s the biggest annual decrease since June 2021. However, new listings have ticked higher the past two months on a seasonally adjusted basis.

In August, new listings increased 0.8% from a month earlier after increasing the month before that.

But due to nearly a year’s worth of monthly declines prior to that, new listings were still off a big 14.4% year-over-year.

This meant months of supply stood at just two months, well below the 4-5 months usually considered healthy.

Redfin Economics Research Lead Chen Zhao noted that “new listings have likely bottomed out,” arguing that those who are locked in by low rates have already decided not to sell.

That leaves those who must sell their property, due to stuff like divorce or a change in work-from-home policy.

Interestingly, even some WFH homeowners are moving back closer to work, but keeping their homes because they can rent them out.

Because homeowners got in so cheap, it’s not out of the question to keep the old house and go rent or buy another property.

All of this has created a huge dearth of existing home supply, but there is one winner out there.

Home Builders Are Gaining a Ton of Market Share

While existing homes, also known as previously-owned or used homes, are hard to come by, newly-built homes are somewhat plentiful.

In fact, newly built single-family homes for sale were up 4.5% year-over-year in June, per Redfin, while existing homes for sale were down 18%.

And roughly one-third of homes for sale were new builds, up markedly from prior years and well above the norm that might be closer to 10%.

Astonishingly, new homes accounted for more than half (52%) of single-family homes for sale in El Paso, Texas.

Similar market share could be seen in Omaha (46%), Raleigh (42.1%), Oklahoma City (39%), and Boise (38%).

Meanwhile, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts that new home sales will increase 12.3% this year, and 13.9% in 2024.

As for why home builders are seeing a big increase in market share, it’s mostly due to a lack of competition from existing home sellers.

In short, they’re the only game in town, and they don’t need to worry about finding a replacement property if they sell (like existing homeowners)

Additionally, they’re able to tack on huge incentives such as rate buydowns, including temporary and permanent ones, along with lender credits.

This allows them to sell at higher prices but make the monthly payment more palatable for the buyer.

Perhaps more importantly, it allows buyers to still qualify for a mortgage at today’s sky-high prices.

When Will More Homes Hit the Market?

For now, this new reality is expected to be the status quo. After all, those with so-called golden handcuffs have 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.

That means they can continue to take advantage of their dirt-cheap mortgage for the next few decades.

This includes second home owners and investors, who got in cheap when prices were much lower and mortgage rates were also on sale.

Meanwhile, the home builders don’t seem to be going nuts with supply, and even if they ramped up production, it wouldn’t satisfy the market.

Remember, existing home sales typically account for around 85-90% of sales, so builders won’t come close to satisfying demand.

The only real way we get a big influx of supply is via distress, sadly. That could be the result of a bad recession with mass unemployment.

And it could be triggered by the 11 Fed rate hikes already in the books, coupled with a lack of new stimulus and the resumption of things like student loan payments.

Compounding that is sticky inflation, which has made everything more expensive and is quickly depleting the savings accounts of Americans.

But even then, you could argue that a mass loan modification program would be unveiled to at least keep owner-occupied households in their properties.

Considering how cheap their housing payments are, assuming they’ve got a low fixed-rate mortgage, it’d be hard to find them a cheaper alternative, even if renting.

In the early 2000s this wasn’t the case because the typical homeowner held a toxic mortgage, such as an option ARM or an interest-only loan. And many weren’t even properly qualified to begin with.

Read more: Today’s Housing Market Risk Factors: Is Real Estate in Trouble?

Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com

Apache is functioning normally

I read a Wall Street Journal editorial piece that cited a stat to say home prices are 13% below last year. That’s blatantly wrong. Home prices remain just fractionally above where they were a year ago. The point of the editorial seemed to be to scaremonger over government programs to help home buyers and student loan borrowers. If home prices are tanking, that means more borrowers are under water. So, the author tried to use new construction prices from back in April to describe the whole U.S. housing market now. 

The fact is that while people who bought homes in May of last year in say, Austin, Texas, are probably underwater a bit, in general home prices across the country are roughly unchanged from last year at this time. That’s frankly surprising given how cold the housing market froze last fall. We have significantly fewer home sales happening. Supply of homes for sale is very low, and most of the year we’ve had more buyers than sellers. There are no signs of any surge in listings, and as a result we’ve seen a floor on home prices. 

This week continues that trend. New contracts dipped as affordability is out of reach for so many. Inventory is very low and just inching up now week over week late in the summer. There are no signs in the data of home prices tanking. We stay vigilant watching for either of these trends to materialize.

And the evidence shows that the trends can change quickly. That’s why at Altos Research we track every home for sale in the country every week. Let’s look at the signals for the week of September 11, 2023. 

Inventory up slightly

There are now just over 509,000 single-family homes active unsold on the market. That’s up just a hair from last week and 7% fewer than last year at this time. Last year inventory was about to start climbing again with that autumn spike in mortgage rates. Inventory grew in 2022 for the seven weeks from mid-September through the end of October. I don’t anticipate that happening again this year. Last year’s late summer inventory growth was a reaction to a big change in mortgage rates. This year, while mortgage rates are high, they aren’t climbing now. Over the next few weeks, inventory levels will fluctuate a bit down a little, up a little in a given week then start declining reliably for the fall. 

In this chart above, each line is a year. You can see last year the light red line did that unusual jump in mid-September with that 150 basis point spike in mortgage rates. Before that change, it looked as though inventory had peaked for the year. The lesson is that consumers are most sensitive to changes in rates. This market is fragile, even though it’s not deteriorating, it could. For example if mortgage rates hit 8%, we’ll definitely see it in the data. 

Mortgage rates slow purchase demand

As inventory reaches peak supply for the year, we can see how this year’s high mortgage rates have slowed purchase demand. There are 348,000 single-family homes in contract right now, with only 54,000 new contracts pending in the last week. That’s down from 64,000 in the week prior. It was a holiday week, so it’s always slower, but this year was 14% fewer new sales than Labor Day week last year. In September 2021, when the pandemic frenzy was still underway, there were 80,000 to 90,000 new contracts each week for single-family homes. And we’re at 54,000 now. 

There’s no getting around it. Supply is limited, demand is limited. There’s just no sign of sales volume increasing. I keep hoping for it, but it isn’t here yet. 

In the chart above, each bar is the total number of single-family homes in contract for a given week. The light portion of the bar are the new contracts that week. At the far right end of the chart, the bars are getting shorter and the light portion is getting shorter. Maybe in October we’ll have year-over-year growth in the new contracts, because last year in the fourth quarter, it was frozen solid. You can see in the middle of this chart how quickly the bars got shorter each week in Q4 last year. Hopefully, this year has a slightly stronger pattern. I keep hoping. If rates tick down, we’ll see an uptick in the offers being made. 

Price reductions dip

Price reductions dipped this week to 36.1% of homes on the market from 36.2% last week. That surprised me because price reductions don’t usually peak until October. I suspect what we’re seeing is an increase in withdrawn listings. These are homes that had been on the market, not had offers, had taken a price reduction, still no offers, so now they’re done trying to sell for the year. Where we had 54,000 new contracts, we could see another 20,000 or so be withdrawn from listing. 

In this chart each line is a year, with the most homes taking price cuts late in the year, when sellers are trying to get a deal done before the holidays. I expect more price cuts before the month ends. It’s mildly encouraging that price cuts didn’t accelerate this week.

The takeaway here is that, in a market that is deteriorating, price reductions will be climbing. And that’s not happening right now. Last year,this happened twice, first starting in March after rates started climbing, price cuts started climbing very notably. It happened again in September after the last spike from under 6% to 7.5% on the 30-year mortgage. That 150 basis point change in mortgage rates surprised everyone. Offers stopped and sellers cut their prices. You can see the extra jump in September of the light red curve here. It wasn’t until November when the withdrawals started accelerating last year and price cuts as a proportion of the active listings started to reset for the new year. 

The takeaway here is that as price reductions are flat right now, over 36% of the homes on the market shows us a slow market, but not a deteriorating market. Like every week for the past couple years, we’re all on the lookout for signals that the market might tank. Can consumers handle mortgages over 7%? Price reductions have been accelerating over the last few weeks when mortgage rates inched up to the multi-decade highs. Rates have inched lower since then and we can see that the slow housing market isn’t deteriorating further. It’s not a repeat of last year. Unless mortgage rates spike to like 8%. Then, we will see that price cuts pattern again.

I’ve been pointing out lately that it is more the change in mortgage rates rather than the absolute levels that consumers are responding to. We can see that in the pattern of home list price reductions across the country.

Median home price is down

The median home price in the US is now $444,990. That’s down about 0.7% from last week. And still up about 1% from last year at this time.  The median price of the newly listed cohort is $390,000 now, that’s down from last week and essentially unchanged vs last year.  In this chart the dark red line is the market’s price, the light red line is the price of the new listings each week. Prices trend down in the second half of the year and these changes look like totally normal seasonal action.

I mentioned that The Wall Street Journal editorial that is so misinformed. The writer was trying to use New Home Sales prices from April to paint a dire picture of the whole U.S. housing market now.  

Here’s what we know about home prices now around the U.S. We’re in a supply-constrained market, and there have been sufficient buyers to support prices all year long. When mortgage rates moved from 7% to 7.5% this summer we can see the damper on buyers. That capped any year-over-year price gains. Affordability matters and consumers adjust quickly. Home prices will end 2023 roughly flat from 2022.

Since inventory isn’t falling and is down just a little from last year, that’s an indication that home prices for 2024 will be roughly flat compared to now. Some firms have been forecasting 5% or more home price gains in 2024. There is nothing in the current data that shows me that much home price strength in the next year. That forecast would be dependent on mortgage rates falling substantially before Q2 2024. At Altos, we don’t forecast mortgage rates, so your guess is as good as mine. But there is nothing in the home price data now that shows me significant gains in 2024. That’s why we expect another year of flat home price changes. 

And when we look specifically at the price of the homes heading into contract each week, we see the median price at $379,900. That’s also 1% above last year. 

This chart shows contract prices last year versus this year. Early in the year, prices were coming in below 2022, now they’re just a fraction above. Last October, home sales prices took a notable dive with that spike in mortgage rates. We’ll see a seasonal price decline in the next few months but the annual comparison only gets easier from here. 

We can see that transaction volume does not show any signs of strength. But because this is such a supply constrained market the limited number of buyers have kept a floor on prices all year. That pattern is still intact. 

Mike Simonsen is president of Altos Research.

Source: housingwire.com

Apache is functioning normally

With interest rates rising over the last year, it has made it tougher and tougher for real estate investors and owner-occupied home buyers. People need places to live whether they are rentals or personal houses and higher rates make those properties much more expensive unless someone is paying cash. While higher rates make it tougher to buy real estate that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be buying. It is extremely hard to time markets and usually, the best time to buy is when the time is right for you. A lot of people predicted a real estate crash which has not happened and I don’t expect one to either. There simply are not enough houses and high rates are making that problem worse not better.

Have high rates caused property values to decline?

There are some potential benefits to investing in real estate during a time of high-interest rates. For example, lower demand could lead to lower prices for certain properties, which could make them more affordable for investors. Additionally, rising interest rates usually indicate higher inflation which could mean rents rise faster than in a normal market. There is, however, no guarantee that either of these things happen.

We have seen prices drop in some markets like Austin but overall prices are higher now than ever before. High rates do not cause prices to drop significantly because while they lower the demand for real estate, they also lower the supply. People do not want to lose their low rate and builders slow down construction. I have personally seen lower prices on multifamily properties which is most likely caused by higher rates. There could be a few more deals available in that sector.

High rates will most likely make real estate more expensive in the long term because it decreases building. The fewer building there is, the less inventory there is, and eventually, that will catch up to us with higher prices. I would not bet on prices to decrease in the future, especially long term.

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Should you invest when interest rates are high or wait?

I think there are many more important things to consider when investing in real estate than how high rates are. Yes, they are important but not the most important thing. After all, investors have been investing in high-rate environments for decades and making money prior to 2000.

Here are some things to consider when deciding whether to invest in real estate when interest rates are high:

  • Does the property make money? Just because rates are higher, doesn’t mean that properties can’t make money. There could be markets or deals where a property cash flows even with higher rates.
  • What kind of investment are you looking for? If you are doing a live-in flip or house hack it still might make sense to buy now since you have to pay for a place to live in whether you rent or buy.
  • Can you get a great deal? I get great deals on every property I buy and I would miss out on many deals if I stopped investing because rates are high. Often a great deal will make you much more money than the increased lending costs high rates cause.
  • Do you have the cash to wait out high rates? You might be able to get great deals that don’t cash flow now, but will in the future when rents increase or rates drop. If you are financially able to handle an asset that doesn’t make much money or even loses money for a year or two it still might be worth it to buy now.
  • Are you flipping or holding? If you are flipping houses the high rates may not impact you as much as landlords holding property. There is still enough demand to sell houses and flippers can continue to buy and sell.

Will rates go down allowing a refinance?

I believe that eventually, rates will decrease which could allow investors to refinance their loans and reduce their rates significantly. This could turn a money loser into a money maker or turn a single into a home run. I would not bet everything you have on rates going down but it is likely at some point. The big question is when will they go down and how much will they decrease?

No one knows the answer to either of those questions but inflation has been decreasing and the Federal Reserve should stop raising rates soon. If rates stay high it will most likely push real estate prices even higher but if they lower rates quickly it could lead to a buyer frenzy and big increases in prices. There are not too many scenarios where I see prices dropping in the long term.

Conclusion

If you can get good deals that cash flow there is no reason not to be investing in real estate right now. If you can find good deals or cannot find properties that make money then it may not make sense to invest in this market. But remember, the market may not be getting investor-friendly any time soon. If you are buying as an owner occupant, it usually makes sens to buy whenever the time is right for you and not the when the market is perfect.

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Categories Real Estate

Source: investfourmore.com

Apache is functioning normally

PHOENIX (3TV/CBS 5) – According to Freddie Mac, mortgage rates have hit a 22-year high this week at 7.23%. The higher interest rates could be pricing out new homebuyers in the Valley.

Alexz Jones with Bison Ventures said if you can afford it, you should buy now and not wait until the rates go back down. “My advice is get into the door now; it’s not the forever home. We know rates will drop, we don’t know when, we don’t know how much,” he explained.

There is still some demand since the inventory is so low in Arizona, but it is not the same feeding frenzy sellers experienced when the rates were much lower. Jones advises buyers who can afford it to get back into the game and build equity, then refinance when rates get lower. “For people putting minimum down, or payment assistance program, this is still your time to shine because of the other people are scared of their interest rates,” he explained.

In the Phoenix metro area, the average non-mortgage debt is slightly higher, at $40,484.

He says the lower inventory could partly be attributed to sellers not wanting to return to buying a home with these higher rates.

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Source: azfamily.com