Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
The bond market–which dictates interest rates–had a generally favorable response to yesterday’s update from the Federal Reserve. While the Fed didn’t cut rates, and while they’re increasingly acknowledging that rate cuts are moving farther into the future, they still think data will evolve in a way that results in the next move being a cut as opposed to a hike.
Positive momentum continued today, in spite of several economic reports that argued the opposite case. Had these reports been top tier market movers, the counterintuitive victory would have been highly unlikely.
Friday is a different sort of day in terms of economic data. The big monthly jobs report is in a league of its own when it comes to labor market data, and while it may not currently be the most important report on any given month, it’s a consistent 2nd place behind CPI. After the jobs report, we’ll get a strong 2nd tier contender in the form of ISM’s service sector index.
These two reports have the power to accelerate or reverse the friendly tone seen in rates over the past 2 days. As for today, the average lender inched just barely to the lowest levels since April 12th. This wasn’t the case in the first half of the day, but as bonds improved, many lenders were able to issue mid-day reprices.
Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com
Housing experts say mortgage rates are likely to hover in the 7 percent range in May, amid elevated inflation that is keeping the Federal Reserve from reducing borrowing costs.
The high cost of home loans may keep buyers at bay as they await the decline of rates before they can make the leap toward homeownership.
Read more: Find the Lowest Rates From Top Mortgage Lenders
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates starting in March 2022 to its current two-decade high of 5.25 to 5.5 percent, a move geared to fight soaring inflation. This contributed to the push-up of borrowing costs, including for home loans. Inflation is still struggling to cool down to the 2 percent central bank target, which has forced policymakers to retain the high interest rate environment.
The 30-year fixed rate, for the week ending April 19, rose for the third week in a row to 7.24 percent—the highest level since November 2023.
Economic data, particularly around inflation, have come in higher than expected over the last few weeks. In March, inflation jumped to 3.5 percent on a yearly basis, up from 3.2 percent the prior month.
Unless inflation surprises in the coming weeks, mortgage rates are likely to stay in the 7 to 7.5 percent range, according to Realtor.com’s chief economist Danielle Hale. Fed policymakers are set to conclude their latest meeting on May 1, and they are unlikely to change their current stance on rates.
“Of all the data, I think that the inflation, specifically the [Consumer Price Index] out May 15, will have the biggest impact,” Hale told Newsweek. “Inflation and labor market data has come in higher and hotter than expected. This change in the data, which is driving a change in the outlook, has pushed interest rates, including mortgage rates, higher across the board.”
Read more: How to Get a Mortgage
High mortgage rates will depress buyers’ ability to buy homes.
“I expect homebuyers to approach the housing market more tepidly, and sales will reflect that trend,” Hale told Newsweek.
Orphe Divounguy, a senior economist at Zillow Home Loans, echoed Hale’s perspective on what will drive mortgage rates as inflation remains elevated.
“The fact that government borrowing remains high relative to demand for U.S. Treasury bonds is likely to continue to push yields—which mortgage rates follow—elevated,” he told Newsweek. “Looking into May, we can expect more rate volatility as investors and the Fed wait for more conclusive evidence of a return to low, stable and more predictable inflation.”
Buyers are still likely to be waiting for rates to fall but the key to the trajectory of rates will be how inflation performs over the coming months, said Holden Lewis, a home and mortgage expert at NerdWallet.
“Inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s target of 2 [percent], and mortgage rates won’t fall significantly until the inflation rate consistently drops for multiple months in a row,” Lewis told Newsweek. “Potential home buyers are holding back and waiting for mortgage rates to decline. The slowdown in home sales will allow the inventory of unsold homes to increase. That won’t stop home prices from going up, but it might slow down the pace of home price increases this summer.”
In May, policymakers from the Fed will reveal their latest rate decision and provide insights on the trajectory of borrowing costs. Also in May, the CPI inflation data reading for April will give insight into how prices are performing, which will give a signal to how rates might unfold over the next few weeks.
For the housing market, one silver lining may come from buyers who have to acquire homes due to personal situations.
Read more: How to Buy a House if You Have Bad Credit
“Purchases are likely to be dominated by movers who feel like they don’t have a choice to wait out higher rates, but rather, they have to move now for personal reasons,” Hale said.
Zillow’s Divounguy suggested that with mortgage rates expected to stay high, lower-priced homes could see escalated competition.
“We continue to expect significant competition this spring, especially for attractive listings on the lower end of the price range. New construction homes are selling well too; they’re available, and builders are offering financial incentives—such as rate buydowns and covering closing costs—to potential home buyers,” he said. “Remember, higher rates mean the home price a buyer can afford is lower, so if you’re shopping for a home in the mid-tier or lower, it’s best to assume you’ll run into some competition.”
Hale suggested that sellers, who can also be buyers, enter the housing market.
“With 80 [percent] of potential sellers having thought about selling for 1 to 3 years, it could be that higher rates are less of a deterrent this year than in the recent past,” she said.
The perspective from lenders appears to be that the 10-year treasury yields, currently at around 4.7 percent, will drop in the coming weeks to 4 percent and narrow the difference between mortgage rates and treasury rates.
“We expect the spread will tighten further by the end of 2024. The combination implies a 30-year fixed mortgage rate mostly unchanged in the coming weeks but eventually moving closer to 6.5 percent by the end of 2024,” Joel Kan, Mortgage Bankers Association’s deputy chief economist, told Newsweek.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
Having children brings many joys. But for women, it can also have a financial dark side. Becoming a mother often results in a loss of pay and opportunities for career advancement, a phenomenon known as the motherhood penalty. In fact, women experience a 60% decrease in income compared to men in the decade after their first child is born, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers’ 2023 Women in Work Index.
Many factors contribute to the motherhood penalty, and not every woman experiences it in the same way. Understanding the motherhood penalty can help women — and their families — sidestep this financial setback.
If you want to avoid the motherhood penalty and keep your budget on track, it pays to know your enemy. According to a 2023 article published in the scientific journal PNAS, women’s diminished earnings after the birth of a child is driven by both a reduction in employment and by lower earnings for those who remain employed. Let’s look at each of these factors.
Despite the fact that women today have achieved historic levels of education and are working at senior levels in the corporate world, they are still more likely than men to cut back on their working hours or stop working altogether after a baby is born. Some women may choose jobs that allow for more flexibility in hours even if those roles pay less.
Discrimination is a more insidious factor: Women make up nearly half of all U.S. workers and do the bulk of consumer spending, yet some hiring managers still believe that women’s earnings are not as critical as men’s for household support. (A quick look at any parent’s money tracker app would reveal just how untrue this stereotype is.) When two women are similarly qualified for a job, the one without children tends to earn more than the one who has kids. And when men and women hold similar positions, fatherhood seems to confer a salary advantage in many occupations.
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Dual-income households have been the norm among married couples for decades, and most households composed of married couples with children have two working parents, according to 2023 data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Families with two healthy incomes are most likely to be able to afford a home, and to be able to cover other large expenses, including the cost of kids. (A 2022 report from the Brookings Institution suggests that the average middle-income family today will spend more than $310,000 to raise a child to age 17.)
But the motherhood penalty takes an especially hard toll on families led by women. According to the 2023 Census, 21% of U.S. children are growing up in a household led by a single mother, who often has no other source of income than her own earnings. The motherhood penalty may contribute to the fact that nearly 30% of single-parent families are living below the federal poverty level.
As noted above, the unspoken ideas that women belong at home caring for their children, or that women are not vital contributors to their family finances, continue to be a driver of the motherhood penalty. This is despite the fact that households where two parents work outside the home is now the norm in the U.S.
But there is another troubling scenario. Women may leave their job because childcare costs more than they earn. The cost of caring for an infant in a childcare center averages $15,417 per year per child. In big cities, the number climbs even higher: Washington, D.C. averages $24,243, for example. And even when women don’t stop working, they may scale back their hours, or take more flexible but less well-paid positions.
The motherhood penalty is unfair, and one additional factor adds to the unfairness: In households with two working parents, where each parent earns roughly the same amount, women still spend more time on caregiving responsibilities than men do — 12.2 hours per week on average, compared with 9 hours for men, according to a 2023 Pew Research Center report. Women also spend 4.6 hours doing housework to men’s 2 hours. Women’s work may be valued less, but as the old saying goes, it’s never done.
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So what can women do to safeguard their finances from the motherhood penalty?
Consider your career choice. Women can begin to protect their financial future while they are still contemplating a career path. Some research suggests that the motherhood penalty disappears for mothers who work in business and post-secondary education. And in STEM careers, and fields such as medicine and law, mothers actually appear to earn more than women who don’t have kids.
Stand up for fair earnings. Exercise your right to be fairly compensated with every step you take in the working world. Applying for a job? Do your research to learn what is a good entry-level salary. Offered a position? Learn how to ask for a signing bonus — with unemployment relatively low, employers in industries from retail to engineering may pay you to come on board.
Change jobs. Women may be less likely to change jobs after becoming mothers, as switching jobs can be stressful and time off is often allotted based on seniority. Yet changing jobs is one way to bump up your salary. When you do switch, make sure you understand what is a competitive pay rate. A growing number of states, including California, Colorado, and New York, have passed pay transparency laws that require employers to post salary ranges when they advertise job openings.
Don’t share your status. It’s unlikely that you’ll be asked during a job interview if you have caregiving responsibilities, as doing so may violate federal and state laws. But many women casually disclose that they are parents during the interview process without thinking twice about it. Avoid talking about your personal life when interviewing for a job and consider that many employers examine applicants’ social media feeds during their screening process.
Advocate for fair pay and families. Research suggests that moms in women-dominated and low-paid professions face the greatest motherhood penalty. To help promote equitable pay that can sustain families, you can support raising the minimum wage. Lifting your voice in favor of government support for affordable childcare and for mandatory paid parental/caregiver leave can also help ensure that women who want to stay in the workforce after having a child can afford to do so.
Despite the fact that women are working outside the home in historic numbers, the motherhood penalty still exacts a perilous price for many women and their families. Acknowledging that women are financially penalized for becoming parents is a first step in fighting back against the stereotyping and discrimination that is often at the root of this problem.
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The motherhood penalty refers to the fact that women’s earnings suffer after they have children, sometimes due to discrimination in hiring or the awarding of promotions, and sometimes because women scale back on work or stop working altogether after having a child.
The motherhood penalty results in lower earnings, and because future earnings are often based on current salary, the diminishment in income often persists as a woman progresses up the ladder.
A primary way to avoid the motherhood penalty is to know your worth. Do your research on salary before taking a job, and reevaluate your salary at least yearly by looking at comparable positions.
Photo credit: iStock/Pekic
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Rates have been in retreat as bond market investors who fund most mortgage loans react to the latest economic news and scaleback in tightening by Fed policymakers.
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Mortgage rates retreated for the third day in a row Friday as the latest numbers from the Labor Department showed employers added fewer jobs than expected in April, pushing unemployment closer to 4 percent, a level not seen in more than two years.
The U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs in April, down from 315,000 in March and the most anemic growth since October 2023. Economists had expected April employment growth of 240,000 jobs.
The report came on the heels of Wednesday’s announcement by Federal Reserve policymakers that they intend to slow the pace of “quantitative tightening” — an unwinding of the central bank’s $7 trillion balance sheet — to $40 billion a month, less than half the pace envisioned two years ago.
Change in employment, by month. Red bars are the latest forecast, including revisions to previous estimates for February and March. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
“This report is nothing like bad enough to trigger a wholesale rethink at the Fed, but things will be different if the July numbers are weaker still, as we expect,” economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note to clients. “The downshift in payroll growth has come exactly when the [National Federation of Independent Business] suggested it would, and the signal for the future is unambiguous.”
Futures markets tracked by the CME FedWatch Tool last week predicted that the odds were against the Fed making more than one 25-basis point rate cut this year. On Friday, investors had repositioned their bets in line with expectations that there’s a 61 percent chance of two or more Fed rate cuts by the end of the year, with the first move now expected in September rather than December.
Pantheon economists are sticking to their forecast that the central bank will bring the federal funds rate down by a full percentage point, starting in September.
“Businesses — especially small firms — are responding to the lagged effect of the huge increase in interest rates and the tightening in lending standards, which have made working capital much more expensive and harder to obtain,” Pantheon economists said. “At the margin, this is depressing hiring and lowering the bar to layoffs.”
Unemployment, which dipped below 4 percent in February 2022, is once again flirting with that level, hitting 3.9 percent in April, up half a percentage point from a year ago.
The Fed doesn’t have direct control over long-term rates, but bond market investors who fund most mortgage loans are reacting to this week’s news.
Yields on 10-year Treasurys, which often predict trends in mortgage rates, fell 7 basis points Friday to 4.50 percent, a 25-basis point drop from the 2024 high of 4.75 percent registered on April 25.
Surveys of lenders by Mortgage News Daily showed rates for 30-year fixed-rate loans dropping for a third day in a row Friday, to 7.28 percent, down 24 basis points from a 2024 high of 7.52 percent, also registered on April 25.
Data tracked by Optimal Blue, which lags by one day, showed borrowers were locking in rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages Thursday at an average rate of 7.21 percent, down 6 basis points from the 2024 high of 7.27 percent recorded on April 25.
Borrowers taking out jumbo loans have seen spreads over conventional mortgages widen as higher interest rates and defaults on commercial loans weigh on regional banks that are often the source of those loans.
The rates published by Mortgage News Daily (MND) are higher than those reported by Optimal Blue because MND’s rate index is adjusted to account for points that borrowers often pay to get a lower rate. Optimal Blue uses actual rates provided to borrowers for rate locks, whether they paid points or not.
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Source: inman.com
Mortgage rates will probably remain above 7% in May as inflation resists the Federal Reserve’s efforts to bring it under control. It left rates unchanged at the conclusion of its April 30-May 1 meeting, and seemed as frustrated by inflation and high interest rates as home buyers are.
The Fed is trying to wrestle the inflation rate down to 2%. The central bank made progress toward that goal in the last half of 2023, and investors rang in the new year with hopes of a Fed rate cut by spring. But the inflation rate sprang a surprise: It hardly budged in the first three months of the year. Investors have convinced themselves that inflation will stick around for a while. Mortgage rates have moved higher as a consequence.
The 30-year mortgage leapt more than a quarter of a percentage point in April. Mortgage rates are unlikely to fall significantly until inflation wanes and the Fed signals that it’s getting ready to announce a rate cut. It’s unlikely that we’ll see such a turnaround by Memorial Day.
The outlook was sunnier just a few months ago. As 2023 turned to 2024, it looked as if inflation was waning in earnest. The core consumer price index had fallen every month since March. From that month to December, core CPI fell from 5.6% to 3.9%. Investors took it as a sign that inflation was headed toward the Fed’s 2% goal, and that the central bank would cut the short-term federal funds rate in the first half of 2024.
But progress on prices slowed dramatically in 2024’s first quarter, as if the inflation rate had deployed a parachute. In March, core CPI was 3.8%, or just 0.1 percentage point lower than in December. At that rate of decline, it would take more than four years for the inflation rate to drift down to 2%.
“In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the committee’s 2% inflation objective,” the Fed’s rate-setting committee announced at the conclusion of the April 30-May 1 meeting.
The statement added that the Fed won’t cut rates until the committee “has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.” That seemed to push a rate reduction months into the future.
Financial markets now expect the Fed to wait until September or November before reducing the federal funds rate. The dashed hopes for a springtime reduction led lenders to raise mortgage rates in April.
The average rate on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage moved upward week after week throughout April. In Freddie Mac’s weekly rate survey, it averaged 6.79% in the last week of March, then marched upward to 7.17% in the week ending April 25.
Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors all predict that mortgage rates will fall over the next 12 months. Their forecasts have the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropping to below 6.5% in the first quarter of 2025, compared with an average of 6.75% in the first quarter of this year.
Home prices are rising along with mortgage rates. The combination of higher prices and mortgage rates is making it harder to afford a home. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the typical mortgage payment was $2,021 for home buyers who applied for mortgages in March. That was $108 more from 12 months earlier. This means that the median mortgage payment went up 5.2%. At the same time, the median income went up 3.5%, according to the MBA. House payments are rising faster than incomes.
Homebuilders have been offering relief in the form of temporary rate buydowns. With a rate buydown, the builder reduces the buyer’s house payments for the first one to three years. They do it by subsidizing the buyer’s interest rate.
Here’s an example of how a one-year buydown might work: The buyer gets a mortgage with a 7.25% interest rate, but the first 12 payments are based on a 6.25% interest rate. That gives the buyer a discount on the monthly payments for that year.
Builders do this in recognition of the effect of rising rates and prices. “To address affordability for home buyers, we are still using incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns and we have reduced the prices and sizes of our homes where necessary,” said Bill Wheat, the chief financial officer of D.R. Horton, a prominent homebuilder, in an earnings call April 18.
The takeaway is that some homebuilders are cutting rates, even if the Fed isn’t.
Source: nerdwallet.com
The bottom line is the housing market remains in flux and is once again adjusting to the likelihood of interest rates remaining higher for longer after being teased by the potential of a falling rate environment.
This flux has created far more volatility in the housing market, particularly in recent weeks, with the MOVE Index — a measure of rate volatility in the U.S. Treasury market — jumping to as high as 121 in mid-April after ending March near 85.
Ben Hunsaker, a Beach Point Capital Management portfolio manager who is focused on securitized credit, said that during the past year, nonqualified mortgage (non-QM) AAA bond spreads have actually contracted from 155 to 135, while agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) spreads have widened from about 118 to 134 over the same period.
“With agency spreads moving out 10 to 15 basis points, you would expect that non-QM spreads also have to widen eventually, otherwise the market’s a little bit out of sync,” Hunsaker said. “On a forward-looking basis, you would expect you don’t have the same tailwinds as you did before.”
Volatility in the Treasury market, which trades at a shifting spread below that of mortgage rates, also translates into uncertainty among housing market investors. Market observers say this normally leads to investor hesitancy and a tendency to keep more money parked on the sidelines.
“When interest rate volatility goes up, you generally have lower fund flows, which you’ve seen over the last few weeks,” Hunsaker said.
On top of that, mortgage origination volumes are projected to be flat this year in the agency (Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae) sector, and only slightly better on the non-agency (non-QM) side compared to 2023, according to market experts.
Non-QM mortgages include loans that cannot be purchased by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. The pool of non-QM borrowers includes real estate investors, fix-and-flippers, foreign nationals, business owners, gig economy workers and the self-employed.
What does this market uncertainty — marked by low origination volumes and a move toward higher rates for longer — mean for the secondary mortgage market, which creates liquidity for the primary mortgage market via securitization and has a heavy finger on the scale in determining interest rates for homebuyers?
If bond yields rise in the secondary market due to a supply-demand imbalance or because of increased perceived risk, then that also tends to put upward pressure on mortgage rates in the primary market.
HousingWire interviewed a range of experts across the secondary market to get a pulse on the dynamics at play at the end of April across the following sectors: whole loan trading, agency and non-agency MBS, and mortgage servicing rights (MSRs).
Following are excerpts from their responses that reflect on the good, the bad and the ugly of the current market.
“When we came into the year, we thought we were in for as many as five or six rate cuts. That was a problem for sellers of loans. For mortgages, specifically 30-year fixed rate, it was hard to find a buyer willing to make a strong premium payment [on a whole loan purchase] when you think you are going to get four or five or six rate cuts, because that meant rates were going to fall and [mortgage] prepayments [due to refinancing] were going to increase.
“However, what we’re discovering is that those folks that had the courage to put that trade on back in the third and fourth quarter of last year are in the first quarter of this year being rewarded. Because if we are now looking at only one rate cut [in 2024], maybe even one hike — although I think that’s still a pretty low probability — but let’s just say we’re flat — then prepayment speeds should remain low.
“Higher-coupon loans now may [offer] a higher rate of return for longer than someone might have anticipated in a rate assessment that was at the beginning of 2024. … So, basically, if I’m trading [as a seller] a 7% loan right now, I may get a premium — like a solid 102 [over par] or whatever.
“The buyer is going to be happy because the prepayment speeds are likely to remain low given the current Fed stance [of higher for longer], and you can amortize that premium over a longer period of time to get a better yield. So, both seller and buyer are happier with the newer loan.“
— John Toohig, head of whole loan trading at Raymond James and president of Raymond James Mortgage Co.
“There’s a lot of cash on the sidelines. There’s a lot of money out there. This translates into whole loans too.
“In RPL and NPL, which are reperforming loans and nonperforming loans, there’s a ton of demand. We just put a bid out recently and … had over 30 bids. That tells you that folks are trying to grab those loans, either for the real estate — if it’s a nonperforming loan … such as for rentals, accumulating assets for their portfolio — or if it’s reperforming, to get cash flows at a discount.
“Those loans [RPL and NPL] are really rich on the demand side, but the only sellers are those who are forced to sell because it’s at a discount, with the stuff we’ve seen trading in the 80s [below par].
— JB Long, president of Incenter Capital Advisors
“Rate volatility has persisted in the market. It’s essentially like playing a game of Keno [with bets being placed on] what number when, and that money can be lost doing so is not surprising. From my perspective, transaction volume and mortgage origination volume has been on its back — and stayed on its back — for the last year and a half.
“ … There is a book called “Who Moved My Cheese.” And it is a very simple book that highlights a very important premise. A mouse goes looking around, looking around, looking around, and spends all its time looking for cheese. Then [after it finds the cheese], it just keeps going back to the same place, but the cheese is gone.
“The mouse forgot the whole reason he ever found the cheese in the first place, and that’s because the mouse remained nimble and adaptive, as opposed to just hitting the same button as many times as he possibly could. The point is we have to continue to evolve with an evolving market.
“ … [For example], one of the big changes in the [agency] CRT [credit risk transfer] market has been a decision by the GSEs to not issue the most subordinate [securities] tranches. They are the riskiest tranches … and they’re the ones that offer the highest return. The supply of that profile has diminished considerably because they’re not issuing it anymore.
“… So, what happens is those investors go to non-QM subs. … There’s a lot of demand for that sub now [securities backed by non-QM mortgages, particularly those linked to home equity loan products].“
— Peter Van Gelderen, specialist portfolio manager in the fixed-income group and co-head of Global Securitized at TCW
“Inflation is running hotter than expected, but I wouldn’t say it’s out of control. We’ve just been kind of consistently in a range that’s higher than what the Fed would like. .. Rates do feel rich. They do feel high, but I think the market has adjusted pretty well to where the rates are and certainly it’s within the range of expectations.
“The credit spreads [for non-agency MBS] have come in throughout the year, and so the [non-agency] securitization market is open, and it’s functioning from the originator through the aggregator to the end buyer. Everyone can still make it work.
“It’s by no means the best market anyone’s ever seen, but [non-agency mortgage] originations are growing. … It’s a market that’s diverse in product types and participants.“
— Dane Smith, senior managing director and president of Verus Mortgage Capital
[Editor’s Note: Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) expects 2024 issuance for non-agency MBS to be approximately $67 billion, up 22% year over year. Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) and closed-end second (CES) originations are expected to account for $11 billion of the increase. KBRA’s measure of non-agency loans encompasses the prime jumbo, nonprime/non-QM, and home equity lending spaces, as well as credit-risk transfer deals.]
“The lock-in effect [of homeowners staying in place due to low mortgage rates] has taken so many homes off the market that you’re seeing reduced sales volume, which creates fewer issuances of mortgages so that the market doesn’t have to metabolize that many loans.
“… But you still have this issue that the Fed displaced real money investors [in the agency MBS acquisition market] for a whole business cycle, a decade, [before pulling back from the market starting in 2022] and that market just doesn’t reappear overnight.
“… We’ve never had this many people that have a loan that’s so far below prevailing rates. So, we’re in a part of the cycle that people can’t look to a model and say, ’This is what’s going to happen,’ because we’ve never been here before.
“… Lower interest rates will create more [agency MBS] issuance, but more issuance creates a wider basis [spread from Treasurys] because there’s now a lack of investor demand versus the added MBS supply, and this creates higher primary mortgage rates to account for the lower investor bids for the excess MBS supply.
“… It’s a structural issue that I would love to see more focus on … because if you don’t have a couple of trillion dollars of excess balance sheet out there somewhere that’s priced appropriately, then the homeowner is going to end up paying more for their mortgage than they otherwise would.“
— Sean Dobson, chairman and CEO of real estate investment firm Amherst
“I think agency spreads have a pretty high correlation to interest rate volatility, so when you go from relatively low interest rate volatility, like where we came into April, to where we are today, it’s a pretty big shock to the agency mortgage market.
“And accordingly, you’ve seen agency spreads widen pretty materially. [April has] been a really bad month for agency mortgage-backed securities. … The supply-demand for agency MBS is probably in balance, however, and it’s in balance because there’s very light creation of new agency MBS [about $232 billion of agency MBS issuance in Q1 2024, compared with $223 billion in Q1 2023, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA)].
“… The money managers who really drove spreads tightening [in the agency market] from middle of last year to the end of last year, they’ve become pretty overweight in agency MBS. … But there’s still a lot of annuity money being deployed from annuity sales, and so that should be a continued tailwind [for the overall secondary mortgage market].
“Insurance is really the 900-pound gorilla in the room driving the bus, so they matter a lot, and there’s not a lot of credit creation that can satiate their needs.“
— Ben Hunsaker, portfolio manager focused on securitized credit for Beach Point Capital Management
“You were able to get [MSR] trades off [much of] last year with interest rates somewhat certain. But then when the uncertainty hit [late in the year, with rates declining] that slowed the fourth-quarter [deal volume], and that’s what was reflected [in the number of deals closing] when we came into this first quarter.
“Then all this data starts coming out and it became obvious that [rate cuts were] not going to happen, and that gave a lot more confidence to the buy side. [MSRs tend to price better in a high or rising rate environment because prepayment speeds are reduced. They tend to lose value in a falling rate environment as mortgage prepayments increase, reducing the payout of MSRs.]
“So, look, pricing began to pick up [as it became clear rate cuts were not likely in the near term], but we also saw an interesting phenomenon. And that is the capital that was tied to highly efficient, highly capable [refinance- and home equity loan-focused] recapture platforms decided it was not as concerned about interest rates [going] either way.
“If rates do not move, [they are] comfortable with the pricing that they’re paying today based on just the steady prepayment speeds and the cash flows, and they’re clipping coupons each month based off of those payments coming in. However, when rates do move, they are going to be in position to recapture [those customers via refinancing].
“… So, we now have a strong appetite for the MSR asset, whether it’s out of the money — which to us is below prevailing market rates — or at the money, and we also have a strong demand for both conventional as well as government [MSR assets].
“I will paraphrase a seasoned veteran in the industry that I was talking to recently, who said candidly, ’I have never seen the market like it is today — how extremely active and busy it is.’
“I’m not calling a peak yet. There’s a lot of interest from some pretty significant [investor] sources, who have a lot of capital [and] who are still looking to buy … And it’s driven again by [a desire to] put units on their platform, maintaining efficiencies, while also then having the ability to recapture when — and who knows when — that market opportunity presents itself.“
— Tom Piercy, chief growth officer at Incenter Capital Advisors
[Editor’s Note: Year to date, Incenter has announced auctions for some $15 billion in new bulk MSR deals, which does not include privately negotiated deals.]
“I don’t know if this is the peak or if … rates are going to continue to go up from here, and MSR values are going follow suit or not. But I think people are of the mindset that it’s now higher for longer [on rates].
“It’s hard because of low [housing] inventory levels and higher interest rates to bring in new originations, but that’s the reason why so many of these servicers keep going back to the same well, with a focus on offering cash-out refinance [or closed-end second liens, or home equity lines of credit] to existing customers, given that can be a source of some volume.
“It’s been a strong [MSR] market [so far this year], with some really attractive execution levels that are, dare I say, being influenced by one’s ability to recapture these borrowers. … It’s hard to convince a borrower with a 3% note rate to cash-out refinance into a 7% note rate, but they can still tap their equity by taking out a HELOC or closed-end second without impacting the rate on their first lien.
“I’ve got probably three or four deals I’m currently working on, so [MSR] volume and pricing are strong. We’ve seen some high-5 multiple trades [historically a great deal in this measure of pricing on MSR pools].
“I think [MSR trading volume] this year is going to be on par, if not slightly better, than last year [which would mark the fourth year in a row that the MSR market has recorded trading volume near the $1 trillion level].“
— Mike Carnes, managing director of MSR valuations at Mortgage Industry Advisory Corp. (MIAC)
[Editor’s Note: Year to date, MIAC has announced auctions for some $6.4 billion in new bulk MSR deals, which does not include privately negotiated deals.)
Source: housingwire.com
Mortgage rates have climbed five weeks in a row and are now at their highest levels since the week before Thanksgiving.
The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 7.32% in the week ending May 2, according to rates provided to NerdWallet by Zillow. It was an increase of nine basis points over the previous week. (A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.) It marked the highest level since mid-November.
The 30-year mortgage has risen 63 basis points in five weeks. That’s unusual. When mortgage rates go up, they usually climb unhurriedly, like they’re taking the stairs. But they hopped an elevator a little more than a month ago. Inflation is the culprit.
The core consumer price index stood at 5.6% year-over-year in March 2023. Six months later, core inflation had slowed to 4.1%. It looked like inflation was steadily moving toward the Federal Reserve‘s goal of 2% after the Fed had raised short-term interest rates 11 times in a year and a half.
But since last fall, progress on inflation has stalled. From October to March (the last inflation report available), core inflation dropped from 4% to 3.8%.
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Even the Fed expressed frustration about inflation’s persistence. “In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2% inflation objective,” the central bank said in a statement May 1 at the conclusion of its monetary policy meeting. That might seem like a mild-mannered assertion, but in the buttoned-up world of the Fed, it’s the equivalent of banging one’s head against the desk.
At a news conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell was asked repeatedly if the central bank will be compelled to raise short-term interest rates again to restrain inflation. He said a rate hike is unlikely. But he said he’s not in a hurry to cut the federal funds rate, either. “We want to be confident that inflation is moving … sustainably down to 2%,” he said.
The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates — financial markets do — but the central bank exerts a strong influence. This outlook wasn’t news to financial markets. Investors know that inflation is lingering. Markets concluded more than a month ago that the Fed wouldn’t cut rates in the near future. That’s when mortgage rates embarked on this multiweek rise.
Home buyers and sellers might be growing accustomed to these interest rates, prompting them to get on with their lives by making and accepting offers for real estate.
About 93,000 homeowners listed their homes for sale last week, according to Mike Simonsen, president of Altos Research, a real estate analytics firm. “That’s much more than in any week in the entire last year,” he said in his weekly YouTube commentary. He added that 76,000 offers were accepted last week, “more than any week in 2023.”
Increases in listings and sales reflect multiple motivations: Some sellers and buyers may have wanted to act before mortgage rates climb even higher, while others might have given up on the prospect of lower rates anytime soon, prompting them to take action. It’s best to avoid timing the market and instead to buy or sell a home based on one’s needs. The bottom line is that houses continue to change hands, even with mortgage rates above 7%.
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Source: nerdwallet.com
Homebuyers in the U.S. are turning to riskier adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) as high interest rates make it less affordable for purchasers locking in new fixed rate mortgages, according to a new report.
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s Market Composite Index, which measures loan application volume, found that the share of activity involving ARMs increased to 7.8% of total mortgage applications.
“One notable trend is that the ARM share has reached its highest level for the year at 7.8 percent,” Mike Fratantoni, senior vice president and chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), said in a release. “Prospective homebuyers are looking for ways to improve affordability, and switching to an ARM is one means of doing that, with ARM rates in the mid-6 percent range for loans with an initial fixed period of five years.”
Average interest rates for ARMs that are fixed for the first five years fell to 6.60% from 6.64%, with points decreasing to 0.75 from 0.87 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans. The effective rate declined from last week, the MBA noted.
HOMES ARE NOW AFFORDABLE IN JUST 6 MAJOR AMERICAN CITIES
ARMs are a type of mortgage with an interest rate that changes, or “adjusts,” throughout the duration of the loan. In certain circumstances this can save borrowers money relative to a fixed rate mortgage, but they can also cause a borrower’s payments to quickly increase if rates increase, which means borrowers should carefully consider those factors before taking out a loan.
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The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) explains that, “With an ARM, the interest rate and monthly payment may start out low. However, both the rate and the payment can increase very quickly. Consider an ARM only if you can afford increases in your monthly payment — even to the maximum amount.”
HOME PRICES SURGE TO ANOTHER RECORD HIGH IN FEBRUARY
Homebuyers and owners refinancing their mortgages have increasingly turned to ARMs with persistent inflation preventing the Federal Reserve from lowering the benchmark federal funds rate, which would in turn allow mortgage rates to decline.
“Inflation remains stubbornly high, and this trend is convincing markets that rates, including mortgage rates, are going to stay higher for longer,” Fratantoni said. “No doubt this is a headwind for the housing and mortgage markets, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increasing to 7.29 percent last week, the highest level since November 2023.”
Overall demand for mortgages fell by 2.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis from the prior week.
“Application volume is down for both purchase and refinances declined over the week and remained below last year’s pace,” Fratantoni noted.
Original article source: Buyers are taking on riskier adjustable rate mortgages as affordability worsens
Source: aol.com
A mortgage rate is highly subjective and can vary for a variety of reasons. A news story that provides an outright level like 7.5% requires context and qualification. Some online advertisements (especially among builders) could still be showing rates in the high 6’s. Some borrowers will be seeing rates of 7.625 or higher.
Loans with less than 25% down will have higher and higher costs, either in terms of upfront closing costs or the rate itself. Investment properties incur significant extra costs as do lower credit scores (you start getting hit for anything under 780 in many cases these days).
These are just a few considerations to illustrate the point that a 30yr fixed rate isn’t necessarily apples to apples. Fortunately, we can control for most of the variables by only ever looking at the same scenario, free from most of the subjective adjustments. We can also control for the practice of advertising lower rates by quoting them with implied discount points (extra upfront cost that goes toward “buying down” the prevailing rate). That’s one of the reasons the MND index is higher than Freddie Mac’s weekly survey.
All that to say, 7.5%+ might not be the exact rate you see today, but after adjusting for everything we can control, that’s the most prevalently quoted top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate again today. It’s the 3rd time we’ve seen 7.5 in the past 2 weeks.
Today’s increase followed the release or the Employment Cost Index–one of the economic reports the Fed watches closely in determining rate policy. In not so many words, it suggested higher momentum in price pressures than previously expected. This wasn’t necessarily out of line with any of the other recent inflation-related reports, but the confirmation was worth a bit of extra weakness in rates nonetheless.
Speaking of Fed rate policy, we’ll get the latest Fed announcement tomorrow. There’s zero chance of a cut (or a hike), but the Q&A portion is always worth some potential volatility in the afternoon.
Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com
Maybe you’ve recently spoken to a broker or financial adviser about investments, and they suggested exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a way to diversify your portfolio and boost your earnings.
But, you don’t know how they work or how to go about adding them to your arsenal of investments. Or perhaps you’re just starting out and want to learn more before making an investment decision?
Either way, we’ve got you covered. Read on to learn more.
In a nutshell, an exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a basket of assets that can include a medley of the following:
Exchange-traded funds are ideal for individual investors because they allow you to diversify your holdings without purchasing individual shares of each asset. And the profits are generated by the performance of the overall ETF and not individual shares.
Furthermore, ETFs trade like stocks and are easily bought and sold on the stock exchange, making it simple for investors to buy and sell.
Before exchange-traded funds hit the exchange for trading, they must be created by authorized participants or specialized investors. They conduct extensive research and choose the assets that they deem as most suitable for the portfolio.
The pool of assets is then divided into ETF shares and traded on a major stock exchange, like the NYSE or NASDAQ, or through a brokerage firm.
Each exchange-traded fund has a ticker symbol like a stock and intraday price that can be tracked throughout the day. But unlike mutual funds or index funds, prices are constantly fluctuating because ETF shares are issued and redeemed throughout the day.
Mutual funds are priced at the end of the trading day, so all buyers and sellers receive the same price. This is referred to as the NAV (net asset value.)
Individual investors can purchase ETFs, but the way returns are generated differs from what you’d see with stocks or bonds. Profits are not tied to the actual assets in the ETF, but a sum of the profits generated from interest and dividends from the overall ETF. The return is collectively based on your proportion of ownership in the ETF.
There’s no shortage of exchange-traded funds as offerings are designed to track various sectors, markets, and indexes both here in the U.S. and abroad. The types of ETFs that are most popular among investors include:
With ETFs, you can invest with minimal effort to fit your taste in securities, risk tolerance, and investment goals. This also means you can choose from various market segments. Furthermore, poor-performing assets can offset those that are performing well.
Professional fund managers do all the work for you according to your investment objectives. They also continuously monitor the performance of the ETF. But since these investments are generally passive and track an index, your fund manager won’t have to spend a bulk of their time day in and day out managing the ETF to stay ahead of the curve.
Quick note: The exception to this rule applies when you’re dealing with an actively managed ETF that is designed to beat an index.
Unlike mutual funds, ETFs are available for purchase at any time of the day. There’s also flexibility with orders as you can choose from margin, limit, or stop-loss orders. Even better, there are no minimum holding periods, like you’ll see with some mutual funds, so you’re free to sell at any point after you purchase ETF shares.
This added flexibility is also beneficial to investors because it minimizes the level of risk they’ll have to absorb if the market takes an unexpected turn for the worse. ETFs are much easier to unload in a shorter window than mutual funds, that sometimes have a 30-day holding period before they can be sold.
With taxable mutual funds, you must pay taxes on distributions, regardless of whether you keep the cash or use it to invest in more mutual fund shares. However, you will only pay capital gains on ETFs when your investment is sold.
As mentioned earlier, the performance of a particular ETF can be tracked throughout the day using the ticker. And the end of each day, the ETF’s holdings are shared with the public. But mutual funds only disclose this information on a monthly or quarterly basis.
Unless the ETF is actively managed, your administrative costs will be substantially lower than what you’d find with a portfolio that must have oversight at all times, like a mutual fund. On average, the expense ratio for most ETFs is lower than .20 per year, compared to the 1% or more per year in administrative costs that accompany actively managed mutual funds, according to Nasdaq.
But keep in mind that expense ratios aren’t the same across the board. So, it’s best to speak with the ETF issuer to get a better idea of what you’d expect to pay in administrative costs should you decide to invest in their ETFs.
Before you invest in ETFs, there are some drawbacks you should be mindful of.
Prices often change, so you could be at a disadvantage if you like to buy in small increments. And it’s not always possible to buy low and sell high if the ETF is a slow mover.
Looking to buy ETFs through an online broker? If you select an ETF that’s outside the scope of what they offer, you could incur substantial fees from brokerage commissions.
If the ETF underperforms and is forced to shut down abruptly, you have no control over the hit you may take, either through a loss on your investment or tax obligation.
When you sell ETFs, there’s a two-day settlement window that must pass before you can access your cash. This could be to your disadvantage if you need the funds right away to invest in another asset.
To invest in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), you’ll need to follow these steps:
Keep in mind that investing in ETFs carries risks, and it’s important to do your own research and consider your own financial goals and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. It’s also a good idea to consult a financial professional for personalized advice.
It’s easy to buy or sell ETFs and make them part of your investment strategy. By gaining a thorough understanding of how they work and working with a broker to analyze how they will impact your investment portfolio, you’ll have the best chance of maximizing your returns.
Source: crediful.com