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Mortgage rates posted a big jump last week after Wednesday’s release of a higher-than-expected inflation report.
As a result, HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed the average 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans at 7.24% on Tuesday, up from 7.16% one week earlier. That’s roughly 40 basis points above the rate at the start of the year. At the same time one year ago, the 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.42%. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.64% on Tuesday, up from 6.41% one week earlier.
As the market enters the peak homebuying season, last week’s above-consensus inflation figures brought the mortgage market back to a sour reality: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate may be close to or above the 7% level for longer than previously expected.
“As mortgage rates increase, it’s never good news for the housing market, especially when more sellers are in the mix,” HousingWire lead analyst Logan Mohtashami said. “We saw a bounce in demand early in the year as rates fell. However, just like last year, when mortgage rates headed higher, it limits sales growth.”
As of April 12, there were 526,000 active single-family listings on the market, up 2.6% from the previous week, according to Altos Research. This uptick in inventory is a function of high and rising mortgage rates, according to Mike Simonsen, founder and president of Altos Research.
Additionally, there were 66,000 new listings unsold last week plus another 20,000 immediate sales for 86,000 total new listings, up 32% from the same week a year ago.
Last week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices were up 3.5% in March compared to a year earlier. Investors reacted by adjusting their expectations for the number of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
At the end of 2023, many investors anticipated six rate cuts for the year. A few weeks ago, three cuts became the expected norm. Now it’s two or fewer cuts, and some experts — like former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers — have included a rate hike in their scenarios, although the likelihood of that remains low.
In remarks made Tuesday in Washington, D.C., Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that multiple measures of inflation will need to move “sustainably toward 2% before it would be appropriate to ease policy.“
“That said, we think policy is well positioned to handle the risks that we face,“ Powell said. “If higher inflation does persist, we can maintain the current level of restriction for as long as needed. At the same time, we have significant space to ease should the labor market unexpectedly weaken.”
This report was updated to include comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Source: housingwire.com
Average mortgage rates edged higher yesterday. It was a modest increase by any standards but tiny by comparison with Wednesday’s big jump.
First thing, it was looking as if mortgage rates today could fall. But that could change later in the day.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Our table is having technical problems. But we’re working hard to fix them.
Program | Mortgage Rate | APR* | Change |
---|---|---|---|
30-year fixed VA | 7.222% | 7.262% | +0.05 |
Conventional 20-year fixed | 7.007% | 7.058% | +0.07 |
Conventional 10-year fixed | 6.51% | 6.584% | +0.09 |
Conventional 30-year fixed | 7.127% | 7.173% | +0.07 |
30-year fixed FHA | 7.056% | 7.1% | +0.09 |
Conventional 15-year fixed | 6.64% | 6.713% | +0.1 |
5/1 ARM Conventional | 6.785% | 7.888% | +0.08 |
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here. |
Markets have turned gloomy over the prospects of the Federal Reserve cutting general interest rates over the next few months. And that’s been pushing mortgage rates higher.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to decrease. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Two economic reports are scheduled for this morning.
The March import price index (IPI) landed at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. And that would normally be bad for mortgage rates. Markets had been expecting it to hold steady at 0.3% and it came in at 0.4%.
So, how come mortgage rates were falling first thing? Well, it’s too early to be sure. But those rates often move in the opposite direction after a sharp movement one way or the other. That’s simply markets reflecting on the change and deciding they over-reacted.
This morning’s other report isn’t due until 10 a.m. Eastern. And that means I won’t have time before my deadline to assess its likely impact on markets. They were expecting the preliminary consumer sentiment index for April to improve slightly to 79.9% from 79.4%.
A lower figure may help mortgage rates to fall while a higher one could push them upward. But this is one of those reports that rarely move those rates far unless they contain shockingly good or bad data.
Mortgage rates might also be affected by earnings reports later from three of the biggest U.S. banks, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. If they all tell a really positive story, stock market reactions could spill over into the bond market that largely determines mortgage rates.
We’ve had April’s two most important reports over the last six days. And, taken together, they were pretty bad for mortgage rates.
Next week’s reports aren’t typically as influential by a long way. But a couple of them (retail sales and industrial production) could move mortgage rates higher if they feed markets’ current pessimism over Fed rate cuts — or push them downward if they contradict it.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Apr. 11 report put that same weekly average at 6.88%, up from the previous week’s 6.82%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Mar. 19 and the MBA’s on Mar. 22.
Forecaster | Q1/24 | Q2/24 | Q3/24 | Q4/24 |
Fannie Mae | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% |
MBA | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% |
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Here are some things you need to know:
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Source: themortgagereports.com
“I would say that there is still some unease because of rates fluctuating,” she said. “I think when we kind of settle into a range, then it’s like, ‘OK, this is the new normal – this is what we’re doing.’ But weeks like this week, when it goes a little bonkers, really rattle everyone – … [Read more…]
There are a bevy of mortgage lenders out there, but they come in two basic types: retail and wholesale. The difference is, while retail lenders work directly with individual borrowers, wholesale mortgage lenders don’t.
Instead, they fund mortgages and offer them through third parties, such as another financial institution, like a bank, credit union or other lender. Or, they partner with mortgage brokers, who work with individuals to find the right loan — sometimes at a discounted rate — and prepare the application.
Here’s what to know about wholesale lending and what to expect if you borrow money from a wholesale mortgage lender.
In wholesale lending, the borrower typically doesn’t have direct contact with the firm putting up the money. Instead, the borrower interacts with a third party — another financial institution or professional. This party is the one the borrower applies through; it’s also the one communicating with the applicant throughout the loan’s underwriting process. But it’s the wholesale lender that sets the mortgage options and terms.
It’s also the wholesaler who technically owns the mortgage. And, once their loans close, wholesale lenders typically sell them in the secondary mortgage market to free up capital to fund more mortgages.
Because they don’t do consumer advertising and marketing, and don’t have to employ customer reps, wholesale mortgage lenders often offer more competitive rates and more flexible loan options and requirements than retail lenders.
The major differences between wholesale and retail mortgage lenders:
If you’re interested in easy comparison shopping and having someone who can walk you through the lending process, the mortgage broker-and-wholesale lender route might be a good fit for you.
Mortgage brokers typically have existing relationships with wholesale lenders. They act as the lender’s loan officer, in a sense. You’ll work with the broker to complete each step in the application process. Once your application is ready for review, the broker will coordinate with the wholesale lender’s underwriting team for approval.
The broker’s role doesn’t stop with assisting the prospective borrower with their mortgage application. They also work to find you the best deal on a mortgage. Since they can shop your information around to their wholesale lender contacts, you could secure more competitive rates and terms than you would if shopping for a home loan independently. Often, they’ll present you with several options, and help you decide among them.
Below is an overview of what to expect if you decide to go the wholesale lender route via a mortgage broker:
If you’re considering wholesale mortgage lending, keep these pros and cons in mind to guide your decision:
Here are the 10 U.S. lenders doing the most wholesale mortgage business as of 2023. They are ranked by dollar volume of their wholesale mortgage operations (some of them also do retail).
Lender | Wholesale volume (billions) | % of business that’s wholesale |
---|---|---|
Source: The Scotsman Guide | ||
United Wholesale Mortgage | $12.29 | 100 |
Newrez LLC / Caliber Home Loans | $11 | 15 |
loanDepot | $8.23 | 12 |
Pennymac | $6.94 | 6 |
Paramount Residential Mortgage Group | $3.89 | 36 |
Angel Oak Mortgage Solutions | $3.22 | 94 |
CMG Home Loans | $3.19 | 15 |
Change Lending | $2.93 | 44 |
A&D Mortgage | $2.70 | 79 |
LoanStream Mortgage | $2.61 | 95 |
Getting a loan from a wholesale mortgage lender might be a good option if your credit history is less than stellar or unique, since a mortgage broker or other third party has a relationship with the lender and could get you approved under less strict requirements. Because they don’t have to spend a lot on advertising, loan officers and overhead, wholesale lenders might offer better terms and charge fewer or smaller closing costs.
However, since you’re not directly in touch with a wholesale lender, communication could be slower, and seem more mysterious. Most mortgage brokers work on commission but some also charge you a fee. Be sure to compare this cost to those of other lenders as you weigh your options.
Additional reporting by Mia Taylor
Source: bankrate.com
If you’re in the market for a home, here are today’s mortgage rates compared to last week’s.
Loan term | Today’s Rate | Last week | Change |
---|---|---|---|
30-year mortgage rate | 7.01% | 6.95% | +0.07 |
15-year fixed rate | 6.46% | 6.34% | +0.12 |
10-year fixed | 6.31% | 6.20% | +0.11 |
5/1 ARM | 6.33% | 6.45% | -0.12 |
30-year jumbo mortgage rate | 7.15% | 7.04% | +0.11 |
30-year mortgage refinance rate | 7.03% | 6.98% | +0.05 |
Average rates offered by lenders nationwide as of April 11, 2024. We use rates collected by Bankrate to track daily mortgage rate trends.
Mortgage rates change every day. Experts recommend shopping around to make sure you’re getting the lowest rate. By entering your information below, you can get a custom quote from one of CNET’s partner lenders.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
Over the last few years, high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes pushed up mortgage rates from their record lows around the pandemic. Since last summer, the Fed has consistently kept the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%. Though the central bank doesn’t directly set the rates for mortgages, a high federal funds rate makes borrowing more expensive, including for home loans.
Mortgage rates change daily, but average rates have been moving between 6.5% and 7.5% since late last fall. Today’s homebuyers have less room in their budget to afford the cost of a home due to elevated mortgage rates and steep home prices. Limited housing inventory and low wage growth are also contributing to the affordability crisis and keeping mortgage demand down.
Mortgage forecasters base their projections on different data, but most housing market experts predict rates will move toward 6% by the end of 2024. Ultimately, a more affordable mortgage market will depend on how quickly the Fed begins cutting interest rates. Most economists predict that the Fed will start lowering interest rates later this summer.
Since mortgage rates fluctuate for many reasons — supply, demand, inflation, monetary policy and jobs data — homebuyers won’t see lower rates overnight, and it’s unlikely they’ll find rates in the 2% range again.
“We are expecting mortgage rates to fall to around 6.5% by the end of this year, but there’s still a lot of volatility I think we might see,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.
Every month brings a new set of inflation and labor data that can change how investors and the market respond and what direction mortgage rates go, said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation. “Ongoing inflation deceleration, a slowing economy and even geopolitical uncertainty can contribute to lower mortgage rates. On the other hand, data that signals upside risk to inflation may result in higher rates,” Kushi said.
Here’s a look at where some major housing authorities expect average mortgage rates to land.
When picking a mortgage, consider the loan term, or payment schedule. The most common mortgage terms are 15 and 30 years, although 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages also exist. You’ll also need to choose between a fixed-rate mortgage, where the interest rate is set for the duration of the loan, and an adjustable-rate mortgage. With an adjustable-rate mortgage, the interest rate is only fixed for a certain amount of time (commonly five, seven or 10 years), after which the rate adjusts annually based on the market’s current interest rate. Fixed-rate mortgages offer more stability and are a better option if you plan to live in a home in the long term, but adjustable-rate mortgages may offer lower interest rates upfront.
The average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is 7.01%, which is an increase of 7 basis points from seven days ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) A 30-year fixed mortgage is the most common loan term. It will often have a higher interest rate than a 15-year mortgage, but you’ll have a lower monthly payment.
The average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 6.46%, which is an increase of 12 basis points from the same time last week. Though you’ll have a bigger monthly payment than a 30-year fixed mortgage, a 15-year loan usually comes with a lower interest rate, allowing you to pay less interest in the long run and pay off your mortgage sooner.
A 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage has an average rate of 6.33%, a decrease of 12 basis points from the same time last week. You’ll typically get a lower introductory interest rate with a 5/1 ARM in the first five years of the mortgage. But you could pay more after that period, depending on how the rate adjusts annually. If you plan to sell or refinance your house within five years, an ARM could be a good option.
While it’s important to monitor mortgage rates if you’re shopping for a home, remember that no one has a crystal ball. It’s impossible to time the mortgage market, and rates will always have some level of volatility because so many factors are at play.
“Mortgage rates tend to follow long-date Treasury yields, a function of current inflation and economic growth as well as expectations about future economic conditions,” says Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans.
Here are the factors that influence the average rates on home loans.
Getting a mortgage should always depend on your financial situation and long-term goals. The most important thing is to make a budget and try to stay within your means. CNET’s mortgage calculator below can help homebuyers prepare for monthly mortgage payments.
Though mortgage rates and home prices are high, the housing market won’t be unaffordable forever. It’s always a good time to save for a down payment and improve your credit score to help you secure a competitive mortgage rate when the time is right.
Source: cnet.com
American renters are fearful that their home-owning aspirations are increasingly getting out of reach, according to a recent survey by the real-estate platform Redfin, amid an environment of high home prices and elevated mortgage rates.
Almost 40 percent of the renters polled told surveyors they did not believe they would own a home of their own, up from 27 percent in a similar survey Redfin conducted in May and June. Part of the struggle for these Americans is that homes are beyond what they can afford. Securing a down payment can prove elusive, and high mortgage rates may discourage them from acquiring property.
Read more: How to Get a Mortgage in 2024
The Redfin survey sampled about 3,000 U.S. residents in February, and its analysis of renters’ expectations came from a 1,000 renters in the poll.
Mortgage rates in particular have stayed elevated over the past six months. After hitting a peak of 8 percent—the highest level since the turn of the century—mortgage rates declined to the mid-6 percent range at the end of the year and into 2024. In recent weeks, however, the cost of home loans have ticked up to above 7 percent, depressing activity in the mortgage market.
On April 11, the 30-year fixed rate rose to almost 7.4 percent, Mortgage News Daily reported, the highest levels since November 2023. The rise follows news that suggests borrowing costs may stay elevated for longer than economists initially anticipated.
High mortgage rates now mean that first-time buyers must earn about $76,000 to afford what the industry describes as a starter home, which is an 8 percent increase from a year ago and almost 100 percent higher than it was before the pandemic, Redfin said. It added that home prices have soared more than 40 percent since 2019, as buyers took advantage of low borrowing costs during the pandemic to acquire houses, increasing demand, escalating competition and pushing up prices.
Read more: Compare Top Mortgage Lenders
“Buying a home has become increasingly out of reach for many Americans due to the one-two punch of high home prices and high mortgage rates,” Redfin wrote.
Renters being unable to buy homes has in turn contributed to increased competition and price jumps in the rental market. The median asking rent is at $2,000 in the U.S., close to the record high it reached in 2022, Redfin said. Still, despite the elevated cost of rent, renting may be a more affordable option than homeownership.
“Housing costs are high across the board, but renting is a more affordable and realistic option for many Americans right now—especially those who have never owned a home and aren’t able to tap into equity from a previous sale,” said Daryl Fairweather, Redfin’s chief economist. “While owning a home is usually a sound long-term investment, the barriers to entry and upfront costs of buying are higher than renting.”
To purchase a house, a buyer would need about $60,000 as a down payment for a home loan, an amount that is out of reach for many Americans.
Fairweather added, “The sheer expense of purchasing a home is causing the American Dream of homeownership to lose some of its shine.”
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
As we approach the mid-2020s, the question on many homeowners’ and potential buyers’ minds is: what will mortgage rates look like in 2025? It’s a crucial question, as even a small fluctuation in rates can significantly impact monthly payments and overall affordability.
Looking ahead, experts offer a range of predictions, reflecting the inherent uncertainty in economic forecasting. Factors such as inflation, economic growth, monetary policy, and global market conditions all play a role in shaping the future of mortgage rates.
A conservative estimate suggests that 30-year fixed mortgage rates could be in the range of 5.5% to 7% by 2025. This prediction takes into account potential economic growth, the Federal Reserve’s likely responses to changing conditions, and the broader real estate market’s status.
Other forecasts are slightly more optimistic, with projections of a gradual decrease in mortgage rates over the next 18 months. For instance, Fannie Mae anticipates rates might slide to 6.0%, Wells Fargo expects around 5.8%, and the Mortgage Bankers Association estimates rates could fall to 5.5% by the final quarter of 2025.
However, it’s important to note that these predictions come with a degree of uncertainty. The past few years have shown that unprecedented events, such as the pandemic and geopolitical tensions, can rapidly alter the economic landscape. As a result, forecasters often advise caution and suggest that these projections are best viewed as guidelines rather than guarantees.
The consensus among experts is that while rates are expected to peak soon due to high inflation and policy measures, they will likely remain above historical lows. This means that while we may not see the rock-bottom rates of the early 2020s, there is also little expectation of a return to the double-digit rates of the 1980s.
According to recent analyses and expert predictions, there is a sense of cautious optimism about the potential for mortgage rates to trend downward in 2025. The Mortgage Bankers Association, for instance, has projected that 30-year mortgage rates could fall to around 5.6%. This forecast is based on current market trends and economic indicators, suggesting a silver lining for those hoping for more favorable borrowing conditions.
The current landscape of mortgage rates has been shaped by a variety of factors, including inflation, Federal Reserve policies, and global economic conditions. In the past, rates below 4% were considered competitive, with a historical low point of around 3.75% in 2020 serving as a benchmark for what constitutes a ‘good‘ rate. However, the economic turmoil and policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have led to fluctuations that defy simple predictions.
Looking ahead, the expectation of a downward trend is influenced by several factors. Economic recovery, inflation expectations, and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy are all expected to play a role in shaping mortgage rates in the coming years. The Federal Reserve, in particular, is anticipated to continue its delicate balancing act, adjusting interest rates to maintain economic stability while fostering growth.
It’s important to note, however, that these predictions are not guaranteed. The financial landscape is complex and subject to change due to unforeseen global events and policy shifts. Therefore, while the projections provide a general direction, individuals should remain vigilant and consult with financial advisors to understand how these trends may affect their personal circumstances.
In summary, while there is hope for a decrease in mortgage rates by 2025, it is crucial for potential borrowers to stay informed and prepared for any outcome. By keeping an eye on economic developments and seeking professional advice, one can navigate the mortgage market with greater confidence and make decisions that align with their financial goals.
Source: noradarealestate.com
Central banks have raised interest rates significantly over the past two
years to combat post-pandemic inflation. Many thought this would lead to a
slowdown in economic activity. Yet, global growth has held broadly steady,
with deceleration only materializing in some countries.
Why are some feeling the pinch from higher rates and not others? The answer
partly lies in differences in mortgage and housing market characteristics.
The effects of rising monetary policy rates on activity partly depend on
housing and mortgage market characteristics, which vary significantly across
countries, as we show in a chapter of our latest World Economic Outlook.
Housing is an important channel of monetary policy transmission. Mortgages
are the largest liability for households, with housing often serving as
their only significant form of wealth. Real estate also accounts for a large
share of consumption, investment, employment, and consumer prices in most
economies.
To assess how key housing characteristics impact the effects of monetary
policy on activity, our research leverages new data on housing and mortgage
markets compiled across countries: we find that those characteristics vary
significantly across countries. For example, the share of fixed-rate
mortgages in all country-level mortgages can vary from close to zero in
South Africa to more than 95 percent in Mexico or the United States.
Our results indicate that monetary policy has greater effects on activity in
countries where the share of fixed-rate mortgages is low. This is due to
homeowners seeing their monthly payments rise with monetary policy rates if
their mortgage rates adjust. By contrast, households with fixed-rate
mortgages will not see any immediate difference in their monthly payments
when policy rates change.
The effects of monetary policy are also stronger in countries where
mortgages are larger compared to home values, and in countries where
household debt is high as a share of GDP. In such settings, more households
will be exposed to changes in mortgage rates, and the effects will be
stronger if their debt is higher relative to their assets.
Housing market characteristics also matter: the transmission of monetary
policy is stronger where housing supply is more restricted. For example,
lower rates will decrease borrowing costs for first-time home buyers and
increase demand. Where supply is restricted, this will lead to home price
appreciation. Existing owners will see their wealth increase as a result,
leading them to consume more, including if they can use their home as
collateral to borrow more.
The same holds true where home prices have recently been overvalued. Sharp
price increases are often driven by overly optimistic views about future
house prices. These are typically accompanied by excessive leverage,
prompting spirals of falling home prices and foreclosures when monetary
policy tightens, which can lead to starker income and consumption declines.
Weaker housing transmission
Mortgage and real estate markets have undergone several shifts since the
global financial crisis and the pandemic. At the beginning of the recent
hiking cycle and after a long period of low interest rates, mortgage
interest payments were historically low, the average maturity was long, and
the average share of fixed-rate mortgages was high in many countries. In
addition, the pandemic led to population shifts away from city centers and
to relatively less-supply-constrained areas.
As a result, the housing channels of monetary policy may have weakened, or
at least been delayed, in several countries.
Country experiences vary widely. Changes in mortgage market characteristics
in countries such as Canada and Japan suggest a strengthening of the
transmission of monetary policy through housing. This is driven mainly by a
declining share of fixed-rate mortgages, an increase in debt, and more
constrained housing supply. By contrast, transmission seems to have weakened
in countries such as Hungary, Ireland, Portugal, and the United States,
where characteristics have moved in the opposite direction.
Calibrating policy
Our findings suggest that a deep, country-specific understanding of housing
channels is important to help calibrate and adjust monetary policy. In
countries where the housing channels are strong, monitoring housing market
developments and changes in household debt service can help identify early
signs of overtightening. Where monetary policy transmission is weak, more
forceful early action can be taken when signs of overheating and
inflationary pressures first emerge.
What about now? Most central banks have made significant progress toward
their inflation target. It could follow from the discussion that, if
transmission is weak, erring on the side of too much tightening is always
less costly. However, overtightening, or leaving rates higher for longer,
could nevertheless be a greater risk now.
While fixed-rate mortgages have indeed become more common in many countries,
fixation periods are often short. Over time, and as rates on these mortgages
reset, monetary policy transmission could suddenly become more effective and
so depress consumption, especially where households are heavily indebted.
The longer time rates are kept high, the greater the likelihood that
households will feel the pinch, even where they have so far been relatively
sheltered.
—This blog is based on Chapter 2 of the April 2024 World Economic
Outlook, “Feeling the pinch? Tracing the effects of monetary policy
through housing markets.” The authors of the chapter are Mehdi Benatiya
Andaloussi, Nina Biljanovska, Alessia De Stefani, and Rui Mano with
support from Ariadne Checo de los Santos, Eduardo Espuny Diaz, Pedro
Gagliardi, Gianluca Yong, and Jiaqi Zhao. Amir Kermani was an external
consultant and Jesper Lindé consulted on the modeling.
Source: imf.org
Finance of America Companies (FOA), parent company of industry-leading reverse mortgage lender Finance of America Reverse (FAR), released a new “investor update” this week to update shareholders and other stakeholders on different elements of its reverse mortgage business including its strategic initiatives, business model and an update on its integration of American Advisors Group (AAG).
The company also provides commentary for its fourth quarter 2023 financial performance, assesses its market advantages and offers an assessment of impacts stemming from changes in Ginnie Mae’s Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM)-backed Securities (HMBS) program.
The company announced the availability of the update in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). FOA begins the update by listing statistics illustrating the market potential of reverse mortgages, including the amount of home equity held by seniors ($13 trillion based on the Reverse Mortgage Market Index), a majority of seniors’ aging in place preferences and sources of anxiety in retirement.
Citing data from New View Advisors, FOA describes itself as “the largest Ginnie Mae HECM issuer for the last 10 years” when including AAG, with 37% of total 2023 issuance compared to Longbridge Financial (21%), Liberty Reverse Mortgage (16%) and Mutual of Omaha Mortgage (15%).
The company also said it “continues to evaluate new products to reach additional segments of the population facing a retirement gap,” and describes recent reverse mortgage industry consolidation following influential industry changes in 2017 and the 2022 bankruptcy of Reverse Mortgage Funding (RMF).
“As a result, the industry has consolidated from approximately 20 HECM issuers controlling 50% of the market in 2017 to only four today, and FOA’s market share has increased to 37% over that same period with the acquisition of AAG,” the company said.
Last July, the company sold its title insurance business to Essent Group, followed by strategic changes in September including a transition of its offshore-based operations to a team in the Philippines and the sale of “certain operations” of its home improvement lending business to Aqua Finance.
“Following the wind down of its forward mortgage business and sales of non-reverse segments including Lender Services, Commercial Originations and Home Improvement, FOA is focused solely on the reverse mortgage market,” the company said. “The Company has substantially completed its exit from all non-core businesses at the end of Q1’24.”
Following its acquisition of AAG in March 2023, the company became the industry’s leading reverse mortgage lender. This resulted in the company taking “aggressive actions to rightsize its originations and back-office headcount to align with continuing operations,” saying it reduced its overall headcount by roughly 30% from its Q2 2023 peak following the acquisition of AAG.
This has resulted in FOA having “less than 1,000 employees” as of the end of 2023, the company said, leaving the organization “well-positioned to evaluate opportunities for further industry consolidation,” the update explained.
The company is also transitioning into what it calls a “de-levered, cash-generation business model,” which it plans to accomplish by “monetizing its existing balance sheet while new originations generate free cash flow and long-term equity value.”
That positive free cash flow it is aiming for will potentially go toward new financing on newly-originated HECM mortgage servicing rights (HMSRs), and wants to reach a point where “incremental financing” on HMSRs create additional liquidity.
The company went into additional detail regarding changes handed down to the HMBS program by Ginnie Mae brought about by the bankruptcy of RMF. Last September, Ginnie Mae announced it would begin allowing the securitization of multiple participations related to a particular HECM in any one issuance month. In January, the government-owned company announced its plans to develop a new reverse mortgage-backed security product in response to industry liquidity challenges.
The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) announced a series of several different HECM servicing changes in November 2023 including allowing mortgage servicers to contact borrowers by phone to verify occupancy for the program’s required annual occupancy certification, as well as allowing mortgage servicers to assign a HECM to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) after the servicer funded a cure on delinquent obligations.
FOA noted several impacts on its business stemming from these changes, including increasing the “velocity” of tail securitizations; a reduction in the need for third-party financing; and increased value for the company’s HMSRs.
Ginnie Mae’s potential new HMBS product, referred to by some in the industry as “HMBS 2.0,” has other notable potential for FOA’s reverse mortgage business, the company explained.
“HMBS 2.0 may allow FoA to collapse ~$630 million of securitized buyout [unpaid principal balance (UPB)] and reissue these as [Ginnie Mae] securitizations, improving liquidity and freeing operating capital,” the company said.
In its Q4 2023 earnings report last month, FOA said that it narrowed its quarterly loss to $20 million and posted an overall improvement in its earnings to $164.7 million in fourth-quarter 2023.
The fourth-quarter loss was down from the $25 million in losses posted in Q3 2023, touted its HMBS market share and addressed remaining challenges related to the integration of AAG and two notices it received from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) about its stock price being out of compliance with continued listing standards.
Source: housingwire.com
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As economists await the release of this morning’s key Consumer Price Index inflation data, mortgage rates are up, with the 30-year fixed purchase rate hovering above 7% as of Wednesday, April 10, 2024.
The current average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 7.02% for purchase and 6.97% for refinance — up 10 basis points from 6.92% for purchase and up 4 basis points from 6.93% for refinance last Wednesday. Rates on a 15-year mortgage stand at an average 6.44% for purchase and 6.48% for refinance. The average rate on a 30-year fixed jumbo mortgage is 7.20%, up 24 basis points from last week.
Purchase rates for Wednesday, April 10, 2024
30-year fixed rate — 7.02%
20-year fixed rate — 6.81%
15-year fixed rate — 6.44%
10-year fixed rate — 6.37%
5/1 adjustable rate mortgage — 6.60%
30-year fixed FHA rate — 6.77%
30-year fixed VA rate — 7.09%
30-year fixed jumbo rate — 7.20%
Refinance rates for Wednesday, April 10, 2024
30-year fixed rate — 6.97%
20-year fixed rate — 6.81%
15-year fixed rate — 6.48%
10-year fixed rate — 6.37%
5/1 adjustable rate mortgage — 6.42%
30-year fixed FHA rate — 6.93%
30-year fixed VA rate — 7.81%
30-year fixed jumbo rate — 7.12%
Freddie Mac weekly mortgage report
Freddie Mac reports an average 6.82% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, up three basis points from last week, according to its weekly survey of nationwide lenders published on April 4, 2024. The fixed rate for a 15-year mortgage is 6.06%, down five basis points from last week.
Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, says of the report, “While incoming economic signals indicate lower rates of inflation, we do not expect rates will decrease meaningfully in the near-term. On the plus side, inventory is improving somewhat, which should help temper home price growth.”
The Fed rate does not determine mortgage rates, though it sets benchmarks that indirectly affect rates on financial products like mortgages, personal loans and deposit accounts. The Fed has a firm goal of a 2% inflation rate, and with favorable economic reports on the job market, it’s unlikely the reserve will cut rates until that goal is within reality’s reach.
Mortgage lenders keep a close eye on the key interest rate set by the Federal Reserve, the U.S.’s central bank. Called the fed rate, it’s the benchmark that affects rates on deposit accounts, loans and other financial products. Typically, as the Fed rate rises, so do APYs on savings products like CDs, high-yield savings accounts and money market accounts. Mortgage and home loan rates don’t follow the fed rate as closely, but they do reflect the same elements the Fed evaluates when making decisions on the benchmark — especially inflation.
The Federal Reserve increased the target interest rate 11 times from March 2022 to July 2023 in an effort to combat the highest inflation in four decades coming out of the pandemic.
Economists are awaiting the release of today’s Consumer Price Index data, which will answer whether inflation is continuing to cool. February’s Consumer Price Index data released on March 12 showed a month-over-month increase in consumer prices — a widely used indicator for inflation. The new data makes for an interesting week, what with the latest Producer Price Index due for release tomorrow.
At the conclusion of its rate-setting policy meeting on March 20, 2024, the Fed left the federal funds target interest rate of 5.25% to 5.50% unchanged, marking the fifth consecutive time it’s held rates steady since July 2023. In its post-meeting statement, the Federal Reserve maintained it wouldn’t cut the key interest rate until it’s confident “that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”
While bankers forecast three rate cuts by the end of the year, a growing group of economists now doubt whether the Fed will cut interest rates this year — including Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari, who told Pensions & Investments last week, “If we continue to see inflation moving sideways, then that would make me question whether we need to do those rate cuts at all.”
Government agency Freddie Mac released its March 20 economic outlook on the housing and mortgage market that predicts mortgage rates to stay at 6.5% or higher through the summer.
The summer homebuying season could bring with it a major change in the way Americans buy and sell homes. On March 15, the National Association of Realtors announced it had agreed to a settlement that, if approved by a federal judge, would bring an end to longstanding real estate broker commissions of up to 6% of a home’s purchase price. The settlement isn’t expected to affect mortgage rates, yet it paves the way for consumers to negotiate what they pay for an agent’s services, potentially saving homebuyers money in the long run — just in time for summer home sales.
The difference of even half a percentage point on your interest rate can save you hundreds of dollars a month and thousands of dollars over the life of your mortgage, but the mortgage rate you’re ultimately offered depends on the mortgage you’re interested in, payments you’re willing to pay up front and your overall financial health.
Your credit score. Knowing your credit score can help you shop around for lenders you’re likely to get approval through, as well as understand the type of mortgage for your lifestyle and income. The best mortgage rates go to borrowers with good to excellent credit — typically a FICO credit score of at least 670 — though even with fair credit, you may be able to find a mortgage offering decent rates.
Your down payment. The more money you can put down toward your home, the better it benefits your interest rate. Paying at least 20% of your home’s purchase price up front generally results in a lower interest rate — and you can avoid mortgage insurance, which increases your total cost.
Your loan term. While the 30-year mortgage remains a popular way for Americans to purchase homes, you can find terms of 20 years, 15 years and 10 years. Shorter loan terms usually come with lower interest rates, though with higher monthly payments. Longer mortgage terms can result in smaller monthly payments, though you’ll pay higher total interest over the life of your loan.
Interest rate type. Mortgage rates come with two basic types of rates — fixed and variable. Fixed-rate mortgages offer a consistent interest rate over the life of your loan, whereas adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) often start with a lower fixed rate for an agreed-on time and then adjust to a variable rate based on market conditions for the remainder of your term. Choosing between these two rates depends on your financial goals and tolerance for risk.
Lenders are financial institutions that loan money to homebuyers. A lender is different from a loan servicer, which typically handles the operational tasks of your loan, like processing payments, talking directly with borrowers and sending monthly statements.
Refinancing is a process of trading in your current mortgage to another lender for lower rates and better terms than your current loan. With a refinance, the new lender pays off your old mortgage and you then pay your monthly statements from the new lender.
Mortgage rates are determined by many factors that include inflation rates, economic conditions, housing market trends and the Federal Reserve’s target interest rate. Lenders also consider your personal credit score, the amount available for your down payment, the property you’re interested in and other terms of the loan you’re requesting, like 30-year or 15-year offers.
Mortgage rates can fluctuate daily, so it’s best to lock in a rate when you’re comfortable with the offered rate and conditions of the loan.
It’s not likely — lenders consider the market conditions and other financial factors when determining rates. You can, however, ask about how you can reduce costs in other ways when comparing mortgage lenders. For instance, many lenders offer lower rates in exchange for “mortgage points” — upfront fees you pay to your lender. A mortgage point could cost 1% of your mortgage amount, which means about $5,000 on a $500,000 home loan, with each point lowering your interest rate by about 0.25%, depending on your lender and loan.
Editor’s note: Annual percentage yields shown are as of Wednesday, April 10, 2024, at 7:45 a.m. ET. APYs and promotional rates for some products can vary by region and are subject to change.
Source: aol.com