Uncommon Knowledge
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Average mortgage rates fell moderately for a third consecutive day yesterday. But don’t get too comfortable. The two economic reports that are most consequential for those rates are both due over the next few days. And they could change everything.
First thing, it was looking as if mortgage rates today might fall, perhaps modestly. But that could change later in the day.
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Program | Mortgage Rate | APR* | Change |
---|---|---|---|
Conventional 30-year fixed | 7.1% | 7.12% | -0.06 |
Conventional 15-year fixed | 6.46% | 6.49% | -0.08 |
Conventional 20-year fixed | 7.03% | 7.05% | -0.01 |
Conventional 10-year fixed | 6.48% | 6.51% | -0.11 |
30-year fixed FHA | 6.11% | 6.77% | -0.13 |
30-year fixed VA | 6.43% | 6.54% | -0.08 |
5/1 ARM Conventional | 6.29% | 7.36% | Unchanged |
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here. |
Are the steady falls in mortgage rates we’ve been seeing in recent days the start of the sustained downward trend I’ve been predicting? It’s possible. But I doubt it.
I’m not expecting that to begin properly for at least a couple of months and perhaps longer.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations are:
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to move downward. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
This morning, we finally saw the February jobs report (aka the employment situation report). And it might prove less bad for mortgage rates than one might fear.
Yesterday, I described the report’s three headline figures. Here they are again with this morning’s actual figures shown in bold:
You can see that the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings numbers would typically be good for mortgage rates. But markets tend to react to nonfarm payrolls primarily. And The Wall Street Journal (paywall) reported the data under the headline, “Hiring Boom Continues With 275,000 Jobs Added.”
Still, the news wasn’t as dire as it could have been: Two out of three ain’t bad. So, I’m hoping that markets won’t punish mortgage rates too badly.
One caveat on today’s report — and other important ones. Markets don’t always respond in the ways we’ve come to expect. Sometimes, there’s a delayed reaction. Other times, investors might discover something hidden in the minutiae of the report that changes their response. And, occasionally, they just act perversely.
Just as this week has been dominated by this morning’s jobs report, next week is likely to pivot on Tuesday morning’s consumer price index (CPI).
We’re also due February’s retail sales figures on Wednesday and various inflation and other reports. But the CPI’s likely to rule next week.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Mar. 7 report put that same weekly average at 6.88% down from the previous week’s 6.94%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Feb. 12 and the MBA’s on Feb. 20.
Forecaster | Q1/24 | Q2/24 | Q3/24 | Q4/24 |
Fannie Mae | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% |
MBA | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.1% |
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Here are some things you need to know:
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
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Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
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No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Source: themortgagereports.com
He pointed to the marked improvement in sentiments toward selling, which could signal an influx of existing home listings in the near future. He also noted a lingering optimism among consumers that mortgage rates might see a decline over the next 12 months, which could potentially energize the housing market even more. “If their expectations … [Read more…]
Jeremy Sicklick, co-founder and CEO of HouseCanary, shed light on the challenges. “In January, we saw net new listings and contract volumes trend at multi-year seasonal lows. Although those metrics are slightly up versus last month, the housing market is still facing significant pressures,” he said. Sicklick pointed to the Federal Reserve’s aim of maintaining … [Read more…]
President Joe Biden has proposed an annual tax credit that would give Americans $400 a month for the next two years to put towards their mortgages.
Addressing the affordability crisis in the housing market in his State of the Union address on Thursday, Biden said: “I know the cost of housing is so important to you. Inflation keeps coming down, and mortgage rates will come down as well.
“But I’m not waiting. I want to provide an annual tax credit that will give Americans $400 a month for the next two years as mortgage rates come down, to put towards their mortgage when they buy their first home, or trade up for a little more space.”
Home prices skyrocketed during the pandemic, driven by relatively low mortgage rates, high demand and low inventory. At their peak, the median listed price for a home in the U.S. reached $465,000 in June 2022, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED).
While the housing market experienced a price correction between late summer 2022 and spring 2023, prices remain historically high, propped up by lingering low supply. In June 2023, the median listed price for a home in the U.S. was $448,000. As of January 2024, this was $409,500, according to data from FRED.
While home prices have stayed high for the past three years, a rise in mortgage rates driven by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive hike rate campaign last year has led to many aspiring homebuyers being completely squeezed out of the market. In December last year, the reserve said that it would have stopped rising rates, but mortgages are yet to significantly come down.
High mortgage rates, together with the historic shortage of homes in the U.S.—due to the fact that the country hasn’t built enough homes to meet demand since the housing crash of 2008—have contributed to the current affordability crisis.
In late 2023, J.P. Morgan said that, based on then-current trends, housing affordability could be restored in 3.5 years. Newsweek contacted J.P. Morgan for comment by email on Friday morning.
Biden is now calling on Congress to provide a one-year tax credit of up to $10,000 to middle-class families who sell their starter home—a home below the median home price of the area where it is located—to another owner or occupant. The White House said that this proposal could help nearly 3 million American families.
On Friday, Biden’s announcement on the tax credit was met with a standing ovation and roaring applause by Democratic lawmakers, while about half of the House stayed seated.
The president also mentioned other measures to address the housing affordability crisis in the U.S. These included down-payment assistance for first-generation homeowners, tax credit to build more housing, and lowering costs by building and preserving millions of homes.
“My administration is also eliminating title insurance on federally backed mortgages,” Biden told lawmakers on Friday.
“When you refinance your home, you can save $1,000 or more as a consequence. We’re cracking down on big landlords who break antitrust laws by price-fixing and driving up rents. We’ve cut red tape, so builders can get federal financing,” the president said among the cheering of some lawmakers.
Update, 3/8/24, 8 a.m. ET: The headline on this article was updated.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
The originators who are weathering the industry headwinds told HousingWire that a significant decline in mortgage rates is no longer expected.
“Generally speaking, originators did not expect mortgage rates to be as high as they are right now. But look, I think a lot of it is wishful thinking. The refinance boom lasted three years. Why would the higher rate environment not last as long?” said Craig Strent, former CEO of Apex Home Loans and head of the faculty of mentors at The Loan Atlas, a mortgage coaching platform.
“A lot of people are going after not a lot of deals, and it’s easy to fall into a race to the bottom and get commoditized. It’s a survival of the people that are doing the right things,” Strent added.
The high-performing LOs are not putting a lot of focus on a potential decline in mortgage rates. Rather, their priorities are buyer education and the nurturing and building of more referral relationships to expand their market share, loan originators who spoke to HousingWire said.
“For every five phone calls I have, only one out of five of those will actually supply paperwork. They want to know what the rates are and they say it’s too high,” said Justin Wood, production manager at CMG Financial.
Many of his buyers are still waiting for rates to come down before seeking preapproval for a mortgage. On the other hand, some buyers see the value of getting a higher-rate mortgage in the current environment.
Having a fully preapproved mortgage, buyers will be able to jump on the opportunity more quickly when they find the home they’ve been looking for, Wood explained.
These are the borrowers who know it’s unrealistic to get mortgage rates as low as 3% and realize a drop in mortgage rates will entail a rise in list prices due to lower levels of housing inventory.
What’s changed about first-time homebuyers is that they no longer expect to get mortgages at 4% levels like they did during the COVID-19 pandemic, said Khash Saghafi, a loan officer at Liberty Home Mortgage Corp.
Saghafi has clients who recently decided to pull the trigger and move to a bigger house by selling their home that had a 2.375% mortgage rate.
The couple was quoted 7% for a $500,000, three-bedroom home in early March, and they decided to go ahead with the purchase as they expect to refinance the mortgage when rates eventually decline.
“What I tell all loan officers, no matter who I talk to, is that there’s no foreclosure crisis coming on the horizon,” Saghafi said. “For that reason, real estate prices are only going in one direction — and that’s up. So, whatever you’re looking at today, it’s going to be more expensive 12 months from now.”
Educating borrowers on the reasons why they should be in the market now is crucial in adding value, Saghafi and other mortgage professionals emphasized.
“Even though the rates are higher now, I think it’s a great market for a first-time homebuyer,” Saghafi said. “Interest rates going up definitely cooled the market, but overall, that is not the problem.”
The rationale behind this thinking is that if a borrower can afford their current monthly mortgage payment, they can always refinance when rates drop, rather than waiting until rates decline only to see home prices soar.
“I have spoken to multiple people that feel trapped in their home,” Strent said. “They say, ‘Why would I sell my $600,000 home at 3.5% to buy a $1 million house at 7%?’ That 7% rate is high now, but you’re going to refinance. If you wait for rates to drop to 5%, that $1 million house is going to be $1.4 million because everybody else is going to want it.”
Mike Simonsen, founder and president of real estate analytics company Altos Research, expects home prices to climb for the rest of the spring and peak in June.
“There are buyers on the sidelines and if rates were to finally fall again, you’ll see inventory fall with new bidders, you’ll see fewer price reductions and you’ll see the leading indicators of home sales prices … climb over last year,” Simonsen wrote in recent commentary.
According to Michael Clark, vice president at Primary Residential Mortgage, there’s no secret to grabbing market share — it’s about doing outbound sales activities, addressing agents’ fears and adding value for them.
“Our philosophy is, ‘Go help agents that are sending you buyers.’ Market their listings; go to their listings. By doing so, you are adding value to their marketing efforts and getting them a contract even if you don’t write a loan on that home,” Clark said.
When an agent sees this effort, they will be more likely to send buyers, refer the loan officer to other agents through word of mouth, and even pick up some clients at an open house.
Clark’s team of 73 loan originators who cover the East Coast funded $81 million in loans in January 2024, up 35% from January 2023. More than 20 of his LOs produced at least $1 million in volume during the opening month of this year and 10 of them topped $2 million.
“All those guys weren’t doing that much volume in 2019,” Clark noted.
U.S. mortgage origination volume is expected to be $2 trillion in 2024 and $2.3 trillion in 2025, according to forecasts from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). For comparison, lenders funded $2.4 trillion in first-lien mortgages in 2019, prior to the pandemic.
“Buyers are shopping left and right, but we don’t get shopped. Why? Because there’s an actual relationship — we are their mortgage adviser,” Clark said. “We’re not just some transaction coordinator that is trying to push paper to a closing table.”
“I always tell our loan officers and our team, activity breeds activity,” Wood said. “There’s a tough market out there for sure, but I think it’s creating a lot of good opportunities for people that are ready to go and serious about buying.”
Source: housingwire.com
Mortgage rates eased slightly this week, enough to reheat the homebuying momentum as the market heads into a traditionally busy season of the year, according to Freddie Mac.
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.88% for the week ending March 7, according to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. That’s a drop from the previous week when it averaged 6.94%. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.73%.
The average rate for a 15-year mortgage was 6.22%, down from 6.26% last week and up from 5.95% last year.
The slight drop in borrowing costs led to a nearly 10% jump in mortgage applications, indicating that buyer interest is strong as the market heads into the spring homebuying season, according to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Applications survey.
“Evidence that purchase demand remains sensitive to interest rate changes was on display this week, as applications rose for the first time in six weeks in response to lower rates,” Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater said. “Mortgage rates continue to be one of the biggest hurdles for potential homebuyers looking to enter the market. It’s important to remember that rates can vary widely between mortgage lenders, so shopping around is essential.”
If you are looking to take advantage of the current mortgage rates by refinancing your mortgage loan or are ready to shop for the best rate on a new mortgage, consider visiting an online marketplace like Credible to compare rates and get preapproved with multiple lenders at once.
SOCIAL SECURITY: COLA INCREASING BUT MEDICARE COSTS RISING TOO IN 2024
While the Federal Reserve has said that the plan to reverse interest rate hikes is still in the works, the timeline for when those cuts will begin has been unclear. A reversal in interest rates is crucial in creating more affordability for buyers also dealing with record home price gains.
However, housing supply is improving, according to a recent Redfin report. New listings rose 13% from a year earlier nationwide during the four weeks ending March 3, the most significant increase in nearly three years. And home prices have also lost some momentum. Roughly 5.5% of home sellers dropped their asking price, the highest share of any February since at least 2015, while the share of affordable homes on the market has increased, according to Realtor.com.
“Mortgage rates remain stubbornly high, and since there is no indication that the Fed will set interest rates meaningfully lower in the short term, it is unlikely that mortgage rates will fall much this year,” Voxtur Analytics Senior Vice President David Sober said in a statement. “If a potential homebuyer is waiting for a lower rate, with house prices still rising overall, they probably won’t get the deal they want anytime soon.”
If you’re looking to become a homeowner, you could still find the best mortgage rates by shopping around. Visit Credible to compare your options without affecting your credit score.
AMERICANS LIVING PAYCHECK TO PAYCHECK OWN 60% OF CREDIT CARD DEBT: SURVEY
Despite the continued increase in rates, homebuyers could save on borrowing costs by shopping for the best rate with the right lender.
When mortgage rates are high, borrowers can save more by shopping around. Mortgage rate variability more than doubled in 2022 when rates exceeded 7%, according to Freddie Mac research. Borrowers who shopped for five different rate quotes could have saved more than $6,000 over the life of the loan, assuming the loan remains active for at least five years.
“The increase in rate dispersion means that consumers with similar borrower profiles are being offered a wide range of mortgage rates,” Genaro Villa, a macro and housing economics professional for Freddie Mac, said in the research brief. “In the context of today’s rate environment, although mortgage rates are averaging around 6%, many consumers that fit the same borrower profile could have received a better deal on one day and locked in a 5.5% rate, and on another day locked in a rate closer to 6.5%.”
If you are ready to shop for a mortgage loan or are looking to refinance an existing one, you can use the Credible marketplace to compare rates and lenders and get a mortgage preapproval letter in minutes.
SECURE 2.0: OPTIONAL PROVISIONS KICK IN TO HELP RETIREMENT SAVERS WITH EMERGENCIES AND STUDENT LOAN DEBT
Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.
Source: foxbusiness.com
Lately, mortgage rates have surged higher, climbing from as low as 2% to over 8% in some cases.
Despite this, home builders have been enjoying healthy sales of newly-built homes.
And somewhat incredibly, they haven’t had to lower their prices in many markets either.
The question is how can they continue to charge full price if financing a home has gotten so much more expensive?
Well, there are probably several reasons why, which I will outline below.
The first thing working in the home builders’ favor is a lack of competition. Typically, they have to contend with existing home sellers.
A healthy housing market is dominated by existing home sales, not new home sales.
If things weren’t so out of whack, we’d be seeing a lot of existing homeowners listing their properties.
Instead, sales of newly-built homes have taken off thanks to a dearth of existing supply.
In short, many of those who already own homes aren’t selling, either because they can’t afford to move. Or because they don’t want to lose their low mortgage rate in the process.
This is known as the mortgage rate lock-in effect, which some dispute, but logically makes a lot of sense.
At the same time, home building slowed after the early 2000s housing crisis, leading to a supply shortfall many years later.
Simply put, there aren’t enough homes on the market, so prices haven’t fallen, despite much higher mortgage rates.
There’s also this notion that home prices and mortgage rates have an inverse relationship.
In that if one goes up, the other must surely come down. Problem is this isn’t necessarily true.
When mortgage rates rose from record lows to over 8% in less than two years, many expected home prices to plummet.
But instead, both increased. This is due to that lack of supply, and also a sign of strength in the economy.
Sure, home buying became more expensive for those who need a mortgage. But prices didn’t just drop because rates increased.
History shows that mortgage rates and home prices don’t have a strong relationship one way or the other.
Things like supply, the wider economy, and inflation are a lot more telling.
For the record, home prices and mortgage rates can fall together too!
So we know demand is keeping prices mostly afloat. But even still, affordability has really taken a hit thanks to those high rates.
You’d think the home builders would offer price cuts to offset the increased cost of financing a home purchase.
Well, they could. But one issue with that is it could make it harder for homes to appraise at value.
One big piece of the mortgage approval process is the collateral (the property) coming in at value, often designated as the sales price.
If the appraisal comes in low, it could require the borrower to come in with a larger down payment to make the mortgage math work.
Lower prices would also ostensibly lead to price cuts on subsequent homes in the community.
After all, if you lower the price of one home, it would then be used as a comparable sale for the next sale.
This could have the unintended consequence of pushing down home prices throughout the builder’s development.
For example, if a home is listed for $350,000, but a price cut puts it at $300,000, the other homes in the neighborhood might be dragged down with it.
That brings us to an alternative.
Instead of lowering prices, home builders seem more interested in offering incentives like temporary rate buydowns.
Not only does this allow them to avoid a price cut, it also creates a more affordable payment for the home buyer.
Let’s look at an example to illustrate.
Home price: $350,000 (no price cut)
Down payment: 20%
Loan amount: $280,000
Buydown offer: 3/2/1 starting at 3.99%
Year one payment: $1,335.15
Year two payment: $1,501.39
Year three payment: $1,676.94
Year 4-30 payment: $1,860.97
Now it’s possible that home builders could lower the price of a property to entice the buyer, but it might not provide much payment relief.
Conversely, they could hold firm on price and offer a rate buydown instead and actually reduce payments significantly.
With a 3/2/1 buydown in place, a builder could offer a buyer an interest rate of 3.99% in year one, 4.99% in year two, 5.99% in year three, and 6.99% for the remainder of the loan term.
This would result in a monthly principal and interest payment of $1,335.15 in year one, $1,501.39 in year two, $1,676.94 in year three, and finally $1,860.97 for the remaining years.
This assumes a 20% down payment, which allows the home buyer to avoid private mortgage insurance and snag a lower mortgage rate.
If they just gave the borrower a price cut of say $25,000 and no mortgage rate relief, the payment would be a lot higher.
At 20% down, the loan amount would be $260,000 and the monthly payment $1,728.04 at 6.99%.
After three years, the buyer with the higher sales price would have a slightly steeper monthly payment. But only by about $130.
And at some point during those preceding 36 months, the buyer with the buydown might have the opportunity to refinance the mortgage to a lower rate.
It’s not a guarantee, but it’s a possibility. In the meantime, they’d have lower monthly payments, which could make the home purchase more palatable.
Price Cut Payment |
Post-Buydown Payment |
|
Purchase Price | $325,000 | $350,000 |
Loan Amount | $260,000 | $280,000 |
Interest Rate | 6.99% | 6.99% |
Monthly Payment | $1,728.04 | $1,860.97 |
Difference | $132.93 |
At the end of the day, the easiest way to lower monthly payments is via a reduced interest rate.
A slightly lower sales price simply doesn’t result in the savings most home buyers are looking for.
Using our example from above, the $25,000 price cut only lowers the buyer’s payment by about $130.
Sure, it’s something, but it might not be enough to move the needle on a big purchase.
You could take the lower price and bank on mortgage rates moving lower. But you’d still be stuck with a high payment in the meantime.
And apparently home buyers focus more on monthly payment than they do the sales price.
This explains why home builders aren’t lowering prices, but instead are offering mortgage rate incentives instead.
Aside from temporary buydowns, they’re also offering permanent mortgage rate buydowns and alternative products like adjustable-rate mortgages.
But again, these are all squarely aimed at the monthly payment, not the sales price.
So if you’re shopping for a new home today, don’t be surprised if the builder is hesitant to offer a price cut.
If they do offer an open-ended incentive that can be used toward the sales price or interest rate (or closing costs), take the time to consider the best use of the funds.
Those who think rates will be lower in the near future could go with the lower sales price and hope to refinance. Just be sure you can absorb the higher payment in the meantime.
Read more: Should I use the home builder’s lender?
Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com
Moderation in mortgage rates led to a pickup in demand for residential real estate, but limited inventories across the country hindered actual home sales, the Federal Reserve reported in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts that was published Wednesday.
Several Fed districts reported that a dearth of for-sale inventory contributed to faster home price growth since January. The spring homebuying season, which got underway a bit earlier than usual, was off to a good start in districts like New York and Dallas.
“Should mortgage rates fall, demand for residential real estate would increase, encouraging buyers who had been waiting on the sideline to move forward with home purchases,” according to the Beige Book.
The outlook for future economic growth remained generally positive as economists, market experts and business organization leaders interviewed for the report noted expectations for stronger demand and less restrictive financial conditions over the next six to 12 months.
The Beige Book, which was compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco using information gathered on or before Feb. 26, does not reflect the most recent rise in mortgage rates, which have surpassed 7% on HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center.
The Beige Book is published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. The FOMC is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged when policymakers gather on March 19-20. The benchmark rate was last changed in July 2023, when it was raised to a range of 5.25% to 5.5%.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated Wednesday that policymakers still need to gain “greater confidence” that the battle against inflation is conquered before cutting interest rates.
“We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle,” Powell said during testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. “If the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year.”
Following are excerpts of statements on housing conditions from the Federal Reserve districts, drawn from the newly released Beige Book.
***
Boston: Residential Realtors expressed growing optimism as both property listings and pending home sales increased. Contacts cited modest declines in mortgage rates since last fall as a likely reason for buyers’ increased willingness to enter the market.
Although inventory levels remained low, listings increased by modest to significant margins around the First District in recent months, lending increased optimism for sales moving forward. Still, contacts emphasized that the number of units for sale stayed far short of what they considered a balanced market, and that a dearth of inventories had contributed to faster house price growth from 2022 to 2023.
New York: Housing markets strengthened as the spring selling season got underway a bit earlier than normal. While inventory generally remained exceptionally low, inventory in New York City has begun to normalize. Many buyers who were waiting for a reprieve in mortgage rates have started to return with the intention of refinancing later. Though mortgage rate lock-in continues to limit new listings, particularly in the New York City suburbs, listings have increased in upstate New York as people have continued to leave the area for warmer climates.
Still, with such limited inventory, home prices have continued to press higher. Bidding wars were prevalent in the New York City suburbs but have been more limited in upstate New York.
Philadelphia: The inventory of for-sale properties remained extremely low as it has since the pandemic began. But real estate agents noted that higher interest rates have severely limited new listings over the past year and were responsible for the significantly lower level of closings.
New-home builders continued to report steady sales at relatively strong levels, in part because of the lack of existing for-sale homes. Most expect their pipeline of contracts to keep construction busy through the year.
Cleveland: Residential construction contacts reported that demand increased as mortgage rates declined. But real estate agents indicated existing-home sales changed little because inventory remained low.
Looking ahead, homebuilders and real estate contacts anticipated that demand would increase should mortgage rates fall, encouraging some “customers [who had been] waiting on the sideline” to move forward with home purchases.
Richmond: Respondents noted an increase in listings and buyer activity, but the elevated mortgage rate made buyers more tentative on making home purchase decisions. Sales prices have flattened, but there were still multiple offers on many homes.
Days on market increased slightly but remained below historic averages. The home construction market was constrained as it was difficult to find land and to receive permitting for new developments. Residential construction costs started to moderate this period.
Atlanta: As mortgage rates retreated from cyclical highs, homeownership affordability improved throughout the district. But home sales in most major markets ended the year well below seasonal norms and remained significantly behind pre-pandemic levels. Potential buyers locked into historically low mortgage rates remained reluctant to move, and migration into the district moderated through 2023, resulting in diminished housing demand.
Existing-home inventory levels were also suppressed by the “lock-in effect,” resulting in flat to moderate price growth in many markets. Demand for newly constructed homes was boosted by the lack of existing homes and builders.
Chicago: Residential real estate activity was down moderately, although prices were steady overall. High interest rates and a low supply of existing homes for sale continued to hold back activity.
St. Louis: Residential real estate sales have slowed since our previous report. Contacts in Arkansas and Tennessee reported that the low end of the market continues to be strong, while contacts in Missouri and Southern Indiana reported higher-end homes selling better. Rental rates for residential real estate have remained unchanged since our previous report.
Minneapolis: Single-family development remained soft, with modest but spotty increases in some district markets compared with a year earlier. A Minnesota contact said that “consumers quite abruptly stopped spending discretionary income on larger home improvements.”
Dallas: Home sales rose during the reporting period, and contacts noted that the spring selling season was generally off to a good start. Cancellation rates were down, buyer incentives were less prevalent, and builders said they were raising prices slightly in some markets.
Outlooks were positive, although contacts cited economic and political uncertainty, diminished affordability and tight lending.
San Francisco: Real estate activity rose slightly overall. Residential construction strengthened. Demand for single-family homes picked up slightly, as mortgage rates, though still elevated, moderated a bit in recent weeks. To attract reluctant homebuyers, some homebuilders began offering variable-rate mortgages at below-market interest rates, which revert to market pricing after a year, at which point buyers are reportedly expecting rates to be lower.
Source: housingwire.com
Home lending is near a two-decade low, with purchasing, refinancing and home equity lending all declining.
Mortgages secured by residential properties of one to four units declined 13.8% from the third quarter of 2023 to 1.35 million in the fourth quarter, according to real estate data provider ATTOM’s fourth-quarter 2023 U.S. Residential Property Mortgage Origination Report.
After another period of high home prices and mortgage rates coupled with low for-sale home inventory, residential lending was down 16.5% from a year ago and 67.7% from a high hit in the first quarter of 2021.
“Multiple powerful forces continued to conspire against the mortgage industry during the fourth quarter, slicing back huge portions of their business,” ATTOM CEO Rob Barber said.
Average interest rates for 30-year fixed loans rose to between 7% and 8% at the end of 2023, prompting home mortgage lending to fall and driving home ownership costs up at a time when record home prices across most of the country already were unaffordable.
Lenders issued $417.4 billion in residential mortgages in the fourth quarter, down 14.9% from $490.3 billion in the third quarter and 18.6% from $512.7 billion in the fourth quarter of 2022.
The largest quarterly declines were in Anchorage Alaska, down 45.3% from the third quarter; St. Louis, down 42%; Charleston, South Carolina, down 33.5%; Rochester, New York, down 31.5%; and South Bend, Indiana, down 25.7%.
Residential refinance mortgages in the fourth quarter stood at 487,671, down from 529,683 in the third quarter and down 5.3% from 514,915 in the fourth quarter of 2022. The largest quarterly declines were in Anchorage, Alaska, down 46.9%; St. Louis, down 39.2%; South Bend, Indiana, down 35%; Rochester, New York, down 31.5%; and Tulsa, Oklahoma, down 17.1%.
Home equity line of credit (HELOC) lending also fell, decreasing to 240,564 in the fourth quarter from 275,551 in the third quarter. HELOCs were down 25.6% from 323,369 a year earlier.
“There were signs during the peak buying season of 2022 that things were starting to turn around, with increases in purchase, refinance and HELOC deals,” Barber said. “That could happen again this year as we head into this year’s peak period, especially with interest rates coming down recently. But the fourth-quarter numbers revealed continued gloomy times for lenders, no matter how you sliced the pie.”
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This article Home Lending Hits Rock Bottom: Two-Decade Low As Buying, Refinancing And Equity Loans Plummet originally appeared on Benzinga.com
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Source: finance.yahoo.com