On 02 August 2005, my friend Frank and his partner awoke at 2:45 a.m. to the dog barking and a neighbor knocking on their door. The apartment complex was on fire. They grabbed their dog and whatever they could carry and ran from the building.
“We lost everything,” he says. Later they’d find out that it was arson. A former employee of the apartment complex stole rent checks and set the office on fire. Frank was moving into a new apartment in ten days, and the new complex agreed to let them move in early. “We moved in with a plastic bag of groceries, paid for with a $50 food voucher from the Red Cross,” he says. The other 70 displaced tenants stayed in Red Cross shelters.
To make matters worse, Frank didn’t have renters insurance. “We didn’t think we’d ever need it,” he says. “You don’t see why you should pay this extra bill until you’re in a situation where you need it.” They had to start over from scratch.
Why Renters Skip the Insurance
There are any number of reasons renters don’t think insurance is a necessary expense. I myself didn’t have a policy until Frank’s situation motivated me to get one. Common reasons renters forgo an insurance policy include the following:
“What are the odds anything will happen?” The odds are not in your favor. The Bureau of Justice Statistics reports that renters are 50 percent more likely to be burglarized than homeowners.
“My landlord has insurance.” That means that your landlord (or condo association) has their valuables — the building — protected. Your belongings are not covered.
“I can’t afford renters insurance.” Many people are willing to spend a couple hundred dollars on clothes, but won’t spend the cash to protect themselves from the risk of losing everything they own. It’s possible to find a policy for $10-12 per month, though your premium will depend on location, the deductible, the insurance company, and coverage needs.
There are ways to lower the cost of coverage, including raising your deductible (make sure you can afford it, though) and having protective devices such as smoke detectors, extinguishers, and security alarms. Some insurance companies offer discounts to senior citizens. Also look for a multi-line discount, which is a discount for buying more than one type of policy from the same company (e.g., renters insurance and auto insurance).
I suspect that the main reason most people don’t have a policy, though, is that they don’t understand how renters insurance works, or why they need it.
Renters Insurance 101
Renters need a HO-4 policy. Condominium owners need a HO-6 policy. Both will cover personal property loss from “named perils,” which is insurance-speak for what you’re insured against. Your policy will likely include the following named perils:
Fire and lightning
Windstorm and hail
Smoke
Vandalism and malicious mischief
Theft
Accidental discharge of water
Other named perils covered sound like scenes from Die Hard (explosion, riot, damage caused by air crafts and falling objects), but I suppose you never know when German radical activists might terrorize your Christmas party.
Renters insurance also includes liability protection, which covers medical expenses for a person injured on your property and legal defense, if necessary. Additionally, if your apartment or condo becomes uninhabitable due to a named peril, your coverage will pay for somewhere to live in the meantime.
What is not covered: If you live an an area prone to floods, earthquakes, or hurricanes, you may need to purchase a rider, or separate policy. Also, if you have valuables that would exceed your policy limit, such as expensive jewelry or antiques, you’ll need a rider to recover the full loss.
Buying a Policy
Shopping for renters insurance is similar to shopping for other types of policies. Here are the basic steps:
Take inventory. This seems to be the step that most of us dread, but it’s where we should start. (Confession: I haven’t done it yet. It’s been languishing on my to-do list for almost a year now, but I’m going to make it a top priority.) If you lost everything, it’d be awful to have to recall every item you owned and it’s value. Better to document it. Here’s the plan of action:
Photograph or videotape each room.
List the value and serial and model number of items.
Attach receipts, if you have them.
Save the list and the photos or video to a DVD, and make at least three copies. Keep one copy in a fireproof place, one at an off-site location (could be a parent’s house or a safe-deposit box), and send one to your insurer.
There also are software programs that walk you through the process. The Insurance Information Institute provides free inventory software that helps you complete a room-by-room inventory.
Prepare. Write down a set of questions you want to ask your potential insurance providers. Some suggestions include:
Do you have brochures or any information you can send me in the mail? (Keep the ones from insurers that appear to be a good fit and use them to compare each provider’s policies.)
What could cause my rates to increase?
What discounts do you offer?
Does the liability insurance cover legal defense and medical expenses?
Do you pay actual cash value (ACV) or replacement cost coverage? (ACV coverage pays what your property was worth at the time it was destroyed or stolen, minus the deductible. Replacement cost coverage pays what it will cost to replace the items, minus the deductible. It costs more in premiums, but pays more if you file a claim.)
Do you offer separate policies for roommates? (Alternatively, talk to your roommate about splitting the cost of a policy.)
Shop around. To find the right provider and policy, consider the following:
Contact the insurance company that provides your auto insurance policy. Ask about multi-line discounts.
Call your local bank. Some banks offer insurance policies.
Search “renters insurance” online. Most providers have Web sites that give you a free quote.
Ask friends and neighbors which company they use, and if they are happy with their experience.
Updating Your Policy
Renters insurance is like many other forms of insurance – not fun to think about. But it isn’t a Ron Popeil rotisserie — don’t set it and forget it. Stay in touch with your agent to make sure you’re getting the best deal and taking advantage of new options or discounts. Also, be sure to contact her if your living situation changes, as in the following situations:
You moved. Each residence requires a unique policy.
You got a roommate: human or furball. You’ll need to decide on a separate or shared policy for the former. Make sure the latter is listed in your liability coverage.
You bought an expensive bauble or a pricey new toy. You need to have it listed in your policy, or you might need a separate rider to cover it.
It’s easier than you might think to find an affordable renters policy with good coverage, and it’s time and money well-spent. As my friend Frank says, “It’s the cheapest bill you’ll have. For very little money, we could have replaced everything we lost.”
If you are a renter, do you have renters insurance? If not, is there a reason you don’t have it?
My husband and I are in the process of building a home on 4.5 acres in the Texas hill country. At the moment, we’re still in the planning phase — not quite ready for blueprints.
Last month, our architect asked us to start thinking about the make and model of the kitchen appliances we want for our home. Visions of sleek, Thermador cooktops and double ovens danced in my head. Even when I saw the hefty price tag, I thought maybe we could find other ways to cut back so that we could afford the dream oven. After all, we’re both avid cooks. To us, eating well is one of the best ways to enjoy life. There’s no doubt we’d use it, so the purchase makes sense. Right?
Reality Check From a Minimalist
Then I happened upon an article by Mark Bittman, who writes The Minimalist column in The New York Times. In “So Your Kitchen is Tiny. So What?” he describes how he makes do with 42 square feet of kitchen space, precious little counter space, and a stove that sometimes doubles as storage for pots and pans. It is in this space that he develops most of the recipes for his cookbooks.
But when he posted a photo of his kitchen on his blog, readers were shocked. Bittman writes:
[Chefs and food writers] know that when it comes to kitchens, size and equipment don’t count nearly as much as devotion, passion, common sense and, of course, experience.
To pretend otherwise — to spend tens of thousands of dollars or more on a kitchen before learning how to cook, as is sadly common — is to fall into the same kind of silly consumerism that leads people to believe that an expensive gym membership will get them into shape or the right bed will improve their sex life. As runners run and writers write, cooks cook, under pretty much any circumstance.
With my feet firmly back on the ground, the fancy cooktop and double oven were erased from our kitchen plans. We don’t need top-of-the-line appliances to do what we love. Sure, I’ll have to cope with the quirky nuances of our oven, which loves to cook my cupcakes unevenly just to spite me, but I’ve learned its ways and I work around it. We know where the hot spots are on the stovetop, and we’ve learned how to position the racks just so for even browning. Surely if we’ve managed with a slightly cantankerous oven for this long, we’d be just fine with a new, moderately-priced range.
We do love to cook — and we like to think we’re pretty good at it — but we don’t need a 36″ Thermador to let the world know that, hey, in case you weren’t aware, we’re serious about food. That wasn’t my conscious thought as I was drooling over appliances at Lowe’s, but Bittman’s article made me question my motives (and probably saved me a couple thousand dollars). Anything that could be cooked on a fancier stove can be cooked on a standard one.
Curbing Wants, Focusing on Needs
Because we’re building a house, it dawned on me that this is just the beginning of a long list of decisions we’ll have to make — each one with a price tag. Our goal is to keep expenses down as much as possible so that we don’t feel owned by our mortgage payment. We want to pay off the house early. We want to travel. We want the flexibility that a lower house payment affords us. My fear is that we’ll be faced with so many decisions that we might lose sight of our goals.
To help us stay on track, I started thinking about questions to ask ourselves as we’re faced with more and more building decisions. I organized the set of questions into a flowchart, which we’ll use as a tool to help ignore emotions and evaluate need.
My “Should I Buy It?” Flowchart
Let’s look at how this would work using my cooktop example:
First, we’d ask ourselves whether we can afford it. Technically, yes, we could.
Is it something we need? Yes, our house will need a cooktop of some sort.
Is there a less expensive option? Yes, a standard range is much less expensive.
Is the alternative durable? Yes, there are durable ranges. (We researched Consumer Reports articles on ranges for their top picks.)
Our result? The flowchart suggests we should purchase the less expensive option.
This chart could be used for small, personal purchases, as well. For example, I’ve been coveting a blue YogiToes towel for my yoga practice. Can I afford it? Yes. Is it something I need or lack? No. I have one in red. Flowchart says don’t buy it.
I know we’ll want a few nicer features in our home, but it’s important that our spending decisions are made consciously. Little upgrades here and there could easily add up to a sizable mortgage in the end. If there’s one thing I’ve learned from being in credit card debt, it’s that the seemingly small things accumulate quickly. The only way to combat this is to be conscious of what we buy — and why we are buying it by constantly keeping a check on our credit report.
You’ve paid rent year after year and what do you have to show for it? Zilch. Zero. Nothing.
If you’re starting to dream about building equity, now is a great time to make the leap. Interest rates are still low, and real estate prices haven’t started to spike yet. Before you apply to a lender, though, there are a few things you should know.
Applying won’t damage your credit
“If you are shopping around for a mortgage and worried that the inquiries will ding your credit score, don’t worry,” said Roman Shteyn, co-founder of Credit-Land.com. “The credit bureaus know that people may go to different providers to check interest rates especially for a big purchase like a house. Loan inquiries within 30 to 45 days of each other for the same thing are lumped together and treated as a single request, and your credit score should not be impacted.”
Your past matters to lenders
They will look at previous mortgages on your credit report to determine your creditworthiness
“We all know a foreclosure has a negative impact on your credit score,” says Shteyn “but many people don’t realize a short sale can be damaging as well. It can knock your score down 85 to 160 points depending on your score at the time and how it was reported to the credit bureau.” Occasionally, a lender will agree to report a short sale as paid which will not negatively affect a credit score. But this is rare.
A short sale is not as bad as a foreclosure, which will make it more difficult to get a loan. It will remain on your credit score for seven years, and lenders will see this black mark whenever you apply for credit during this period.
Lenders handle couples with different credit scores in a special way
If you’re applying for a mortgage loan as a couple, the mortgage lender will check both of your credit reports and credit scores. The bank reviews your debt, the length of your credit history and current credit activity.
Paying bills late and too much debt can negatively impact a mortgage approval, plus influence the mortgage rate. However, some couples believe that they’ll receive a low interest rate as long as one person has excellent credit — but this isn’t always the case.
Typically mortgage lenders use the lowest credit score to determine the mortgage rate. Therefore, if you have a 790 credit score and your partner has a 670 credit score, you’re not likely to receive the most favorable rate due to your partner’s less-than-perfect credit history.
To ensure the best rate, both of you need to maintain good credit before applying for a loan. This includes paying bills on time, paying off debt and checking your credit reports for errors.
For a lender, there’s nothing like responsibility
Make other loan and debt payments on time, especially over the months leading up to the filing of your mortgage application. Every 30-, 60- or 90-day delinquency on a loan or credit card is going to reduce the credit score the lender considers as part of the loan file. That score, in turn, will determine how good a loan you get — if you get one at all.
You need to be strategic about your personal finances
Consider paying off more debt and putting down a smaller amount at closing. This move leaves borrowers with larger mortgages, but it will allow them to replace non tax-deductible, high-interest rate debt (like credit card debt) with lower-rate mortgage debt that features deductible interest.
If you have a financial setback and need to miss a payment on your other debts, miss the credit card payment first, followed by the payment on any installment loan you might have and finally, the payment for an existing mortgage. That’s because credit scoring systems look at the performance of similar loans first when deciding what type of score to assign.
Before you apply, think about the future
If your next few years are full of big life changes and multiple new financial obligations, apply for a mortgage first. Numerous credit inquiries, such as new applications for credit cards, can hurt a borrower’s credit score, especially if they’re filed in the months prior to the home loan review process.
The value of your potential home can make or break the deal
Sometimes it’s not your fault that your mortgage application is denied. If your home isn’t worth enough, lenders might not approve your request for a mortgage. Say you agree to pay $200,000 for a home and are asking for a mortgage loan of $190,000. If an appraiser determines that the home is worth only $160,000, a mortgage lender might not grant you a loan, even if you are willing to pay the higher amount.
The 3 big don’ts
We can talk about the things you should do when applying for a mortgage all day long, but realistically, avoiding the big mistakes should be your first concern. Here are five things you should remember.
Don’t make any big purchases over the next couple of months. It makes less money available for the down payment and it might require you to get yet another loan.
Don’t upgrade too fast. Lenders consider what’s known in the industry as “payment shock” when approving loans. Somebody who goes from a relatively small monthly housing payment to a huge one either won’t qualify for a mortgage or will end up having to cover too much loan with too little money.
Don’t just get pre-qualified for a mortgage, get pre-approved. Home buyers must allow their lenders to pull credit reports, check debt-to-income ratios and perform other underwriting steps. But that puts a borrower much closer to obtaining a loan and locking in a rate and term.
Wells Fargo is taking bigger precautions on its office building loans, setting aside more funds to cover potential losses as the sector continues to deteriorate.
The office market “continues to be weak” in many cities, Chief Financial Officer Michael Santomassimo said Friday. But he also argued that general trends can be misleading, and said the bank has been doing a property-by-property analysis to see where its specific risks lie.
The warning from one of the country’s largest banks hints at signs of trouble that smaller banks may share as they start reporting earnings next week. Office loans make up about 3% of Wells Fargo’s total loans, but many smaller lenders have bigger concentrations.
Wells, which has $1.9 trillion of assets, continued to conduct a deep dive into its office loan book in the second quarter, which prompted it to set aside more reserves to absorb potential losses later on.
After stress testing its commercial real estate loans, the bank’s allowance for credit losses in the CRE sector jumped to $3.6 billion in the quarter — up 64% from a year earlier. Office vacancy rates have climbed as remote work has shown staying power.
Wells Fargo executives, who also boosted CRE loan reserves in the first quarter, didn’t rule out adding more reserves as conditions evolve. But they said their current analyses covered just about every risk they can see at the moment.
“We’ve gone through a number of stress scenarios and feel like at this point, we’re appropriately reserved,” Santomassimo said on the bank’s second-quarter earnings call.
JPMorgan Chase also bumped up its reserves during the quarter due to office loans, though its executives cautioned against reading too much into the buildup, given the bank’s limited exposure to the office sector. JPMorgan Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum said the company wanted to get “ahead of the cycle,” but he noted that most of the bank’s CRE portfolio is tied to loans backed by multifamily buildings.
Wells Fargo and other large banks have manageable exposures to office buildings and other commercial real estate, said CFRA research analyst Kenneth Leon, pointing to the resilience those banks showed in this year’s stress tests. Leon credited Wells executives for displaying strong “credit risk control” and closely monitoring its CRE loan portfolio.
Wells Fargo’s CRE team is focused on “surveillance and de-risking,” Santomassimo said. The bank highlighted diversification in its portfolio, with an investor presentation showing that office loans make up 22% of its CRE book.
Loans backed by apartments, a sector that Santomassimo said is performing “quite well,” account for 26% of Wells Fargo’s CRE book. Warehouse, hotel and retail loans make up smaller chunks.
Nearly a third of Wells Fargo’s office loans are in California, and the remainder are spread across several other states. San Francisco, where Wells is headquartered, has been a source of worry in the office market, given that tech companies have embraced remote work more than many other firms. One office building there has reportedly seen an 80% drop in its value.
Asked about office-related risks in California, Santomassimo said that worries are not “isolated to California” and “you see weakness in a lot of cities these days.” He also cautioned against focusing solely on geography.
“Even in California, we’ve got as many examples where clients are actually reinvesting in buildings, even if lease rates are low or even empty in some cases, as they are going into a workout,” Santomassimo said.
Wells CEO Charlie Scharf said it’s “a very big mistake” to think that a building’s geographic location is the only factor that will determine whether losses occur.
“We have examples in cities that are struggling where the structure of our loan is quite good — the underlying property has very high lease rates for an extended period of time,” Scharf said. In markets that are doing well, specific properties may be at more risk due to a large amount of upcoming lease terminations, he added.
“That’s the level of detail that we’ve used to come up with what we think the appropriate level of reserving is,” Scharf said. “We’ve tried to be as diligent as we can.”
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage sank 10 basis points to 2.78% for the week ending on July 22, continuing several weeks of declines, according to mortgage rates data released Thursday by Freddie Mac‘s PMMS.
According to Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, concerns about the COVID-19 Delta variant and the recovery from the pandemic are taking their toll on economic growth.
While the economy continues to mend, Treasury yields have decreased, and mortgage rates have followed suit, said Khater. “Unfortunately, many homebuyers are unable to take advantage of low rates due to low inventory and high prices.”
While prospective homebuyers face a tough market, Khater added that declining mortgage rates give homeowners the chance to refinance and reduce their monthly payments.
Mortgage rates have mostly remained below 3% this year, despite predictions that they would return to higher levels earlier. Economists and investors are closely monitoring any indication from the Federal Reserve that it may begin tapering of mortgage backed securities and bond purchases.
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But that is “still a ways off,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said at a Congressional hearing last week. The U.S. central bank plans to continue its asset purchases until there is substantial progress on jobs.
That accommodative stance is bolstered by concerns about the Delta variant and the market outlook, an analysis from Goldman Sachs noted this week. The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet next week.
President Joe Biden also pushed back at concerns over rising inflation during a press conference this week. “No serious economist” is suggesting the economy is headed toward unchecked inflation, he said.
“If we were to ever experience unchecked inflation over the long term that would pose real challenges to our economy,” Biden said, adding that his administration would “remain vigilant about any response that is needed.”
Since March 2020, the Fed’s asset purchases have been split between $80 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds and $40 billion of mortgage backed securities each month, keeping the cost of long-term borrowing low, in turn depressing mortgage rates. A year ago at this time, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 3.01%.
Despite the low cost of borrowing, the housing market is showing signs of sluggishness.
Ten-year Treasury yields declined sharply last week, in part due to investor concerns about the spread of COVID variants and their impact on global economic growth, according to a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Mortgage applications for new home purchases decreased 3% from May to June, sliding 23.8% year over year, according to the latest report from the MBA.
New single-family home sales decreased 5% to 704,000 units from 741,000, the trade group found. New home sales also declined slightly, from 68,000 to 66,000 in May. Overall, sales of new homes are down 7% from last year.
Homebuilders have encountered price increases for some building materials and labor shortages have dampened new home sales and increased home price appreciation, according to Joel Kan, MBA associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting. Persistent low inventory is keeping competition for available units high, he added.
In June, the average loan price rose to a record $392,370, according to the MBA.
“In addition to price increases, we are also seeing fewer purchase transactions in the lower price tiers as more of these potential buyers are being priced out of the market, further exerting upward pressure on loan balances,” Kan said.
Average mortgage rates tumbled yesterday following a first-class inflation report. In some cases, they are now back below 7% for an excellent borrower wanting a conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage. Phew!
First thing, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might fall but perhaps only a little. However, these early mini-trends often switch speed or direction later in the day.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.122%
7.147%
+0.15
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.297%
6.321%
+0.1
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.34%
7.403%
+0.03
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.872%
6.985%
+0.05
30-year fixed FHA
7.065%
7.685%
+0.02
15-year fixed FHA
6.503%
6.972%
+0.16
30-year fixed VA
6.75%
6.959%
+0.25
15-year fixed VA
6.625%
6.965%
Unchanged
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.75%
7.266%
Unchanged
5/1 ARM FHA
6.75%
7.532%
+0.11
5/1 ARM VA
6.75%
7.532%
+0.11
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock a mortgage rate today?
The chances of mortgage rates falling far and for long later this year improved yesterday. That day’s inflation report helped a lot.
But I reckon we’ll probably need a heap more similarly rate-friendly data in order to bring about that significant and sustained fall. And, while it’s possible such a heap will be delivered quickly, it’s probably more likely we’ll see any improvements late this year or sometime in 2024.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCK if closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data, compared with roughly the same time yesterday, were:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes tumbled to 3.81% from 3.91%. (Very good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were higher. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices decreased to $75.65 from $75.94 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices rose to $1,964 from $1,959 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — held steady at 81 out of 100. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic and the Federal Reserve’s interventions in the mortgage market, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today might fall. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Yesterday
Yesterday’s consumer price index (CPI) was a real tonic for mortgage rates. Comerica Bank’s chief economist said that “the fever is breaking“ for inflation.
And The Wall Street Journal (paywall) suggested: “Inflation cooled last month to its slowest pace in more than two years, giving Americans relief from a painful period of rising prices and boosting the chances that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates after an expected increase this month.“
Note that the Journal’s writers (and many others) still expect a rise in general interest rates on Jul. 26. And that might limit how far mortgage rates can fall in the short term.
But other things could also limit the extent and duration of further decreases in mortgage rates. More and more people are talking up the possibility of a “soft landing.“ That refers to the Fed successfully driving down inflation without throwing the country into a recession.
But those of us wanting lower mortgage rates were kind of hoping for a recession. Of course, we didn’t want the bad stuff for the wider population. But mortgage rates tend to fall when the economy is in trouble and rise when it’s doing well.
So, while some falls in mortgage rates might be on the cards later in the year or in 2024, they might not be as big as we’d once been able to hope.
The rest of this week
This morning’s producer price index (PPI) for June was nothing like as important to mortgage rates as yesterday’s CPI. It and tomorrow’s import price index (IPI) are generally seen as secondary inflation measures. But, with markets hyper-sensitive to inflation news right now, they’re worth observing.
Today’s PPI was probably good for mortgage rates. The headline figure (PPI for final demand) came in at 0.1% in June, compared with the expected 0.2%. Just don’t expect it to have as positive an effect as yesterday’s news.
Please read the weekend edition of this daily report for more background on what’s happening to mortgage rates.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time low for mortgage rates was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65% for conventional, 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages.
Freddie’s Jul. 6 report put that same weekly average at 6.81%, up from the previous week’s 6.71%. But Freddie is almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
In November, Freddie stopped including discount points in its forecasts. It has also delayed until later in the day the time at which it publishes its Thursday reports. Andwe now update this section on Fridays.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the current quarter (Q2/23) and the following three quarters (Q3/23, Q4/23 and Q1/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. They were both updated in June.
In the past, we included Freddie Mac’s forecasts. But it seems to have given up on publishing those.
Forecaster
Q2/23
Q3/23
Q4/23
Q1/24
Fannie Mae
6.5%
6.6%
6.3%
6.1%
MBA
6.5%
6.2%
5.8%
5.6%
Of course, given so many unknowables, the whole current crop of forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change, unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Britain’s biggest banks are on track to make billions more from rising interest rates this year – fuelling claims they are profiteering at the expense of savers.
Major lenders stand accused of not extending a series of recent Bank of England rate hikes to savings accounts while ramping up mortgage and other borrowing costs, leading to fatter profits.
City analysts expect NatWest, which was bailed out by the taxpayer during the financial crisis, to make almost £12 billion in net interest income – the difference between what they pay savers and charge borrowers. This is £2 billion more than last year.
Lloyds Banking Group, Britain’s biggest lender and owner of the Halifax brand, is set to scoop almost £14 billion, nearly £1 billion more than a year ago.
Inflation fight: Base rate has soared as the bank of England battles inflation but savers haven’t seen as big rises as borrowers
Both will report results later this month. The Mail on Sunday and This is Money recently revealed that the six biggest lenders made £44 billion last year in net interest income, which was £8 billion more than the previous year.
But the latest forecasts indicate it will be an even bigger bonanza this year as the cost of borrowing continues to soar, with interest rates now expected at peak at over six per cent.
It comes as ministers are braced for the latest inflation data. Figures this week are expected to show the pace of price rises slowed in June to around 8 per cent.
That would be still way above the Bank’s 2 per cent target – and puts Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s promise to halve inflation by the end of this year in peril.
The Bank is poised to jack up rates again next month – from their current level of 5 per cent – as it tries to curb persistently high inflation, which is running at 8.7 per cent.
That will heap more misery on homeowners, with nearly a million of them facing an extra £500 a month in repayments as their cheaper fixed-rate deals end, the Bank reckons.
The typical cost of a two-year fixed rate mortgage has soared to 6.8 per cent from 3.8 per cent a year ago, according to financial experts Moneyfacts.
But the interest paid on instant access savings accounts has only increased to 2.6 per cent from 0.5 per cent in that time.
The growing gap has enabled banks to rake in bumper profits. Experts says banks’ profits are highly sensitive to changes in interest rates.
Barclays, for example, makes an extra £170 million for every quarter-point increase in the base rate, according to investment bank JP Morgan.
It has warned banks’ ‘super normal profitability’ raises the risk of the Government imposing a windfall tax.
MPs and regulators are investigating the profiteering claims while encouraging savers to shop around for better rates.
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey last week urged lenders to pass on interest rate rises to savers, saying they were financially strong enough to compete and offer better deals.
‘The resilience of the banking system is not a constraint on banks managing their net interest margins, and therefore managing the rates they pay to savers and the rates they charge on mortgages,’ he said.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt has also backed calls for banks to offer better returns to customers.
But Harriett Baldwin, chairman of the House of Commons’ Treasury select committee, which is examining the lenders’ rates ruse, said: ‘While it is positive to see that some firms are responding to our continued pressure, the easy access rates offered to High Street banks continue to lag, and are significantly lower than the base rate.
‘Banks must now step up and start alerting customers where better products are available.’
Lenders, however, deny charging rip-off rates and say margins of around 3 per cent have only recently recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
There are also signs savings rates have improved after bank and building society bosses were recently called in to see the Financial Conduct Authority, the industry regulator.
But David Postings, chief executive of the UK Finance trade body, was accused of being ‘completely out of touch with reality’ by Labour MP and select committee member Angela Eagle after telling yesterday’s Daily Mail bank margins ‘were not egregious at all’.
LONDON, June 29 (Reuters) – Major British lenders on Thursday announced another increase in mortgage rates offered via brokers, pushing many products above the 6% mark in painful news for many homeowners and potential buyers.
Lenders have re-priced home loan offerings repeatedly in recent weeks in a scramble to keep up with soaring funding costs, spurred by expectations of more interest rate hikes from the Bank of England as it battles stubbornly high inflation.
Barclays (BARC.L), NatWest (NWG.L) and Virgin Money (VMUK.L) informed brokers that rates on many mortgage offerings will rise again on Friday, according to emails seen by Reuters.
Nationwide Building Society, another major lender, raised rates on products offered via brokers earlier on Thursday.
“As mortgage rates continue to rise, the property market is being pushed further towards a cliff edge and there’s no real help in sight,” mortgage broker Lewis Shaw of Shaw Financial Services said.
Oxford Economics, a consultancy, said it now expected a peak-to-trough drop in house prices of around 13%.
“The high share of fixed-rate deals and a limited rise in unemployment mean we still expect the downturn to be more of a slow puncture, with prices falling steadily over a couple of years, rather than a sudden, sharp drop,” said Andrew Goodwin, Oxford Economics’ chief UK economist.
Two-year swap rates – a key determinant of mortgage borrowing costs – have soared by 0.83 percentage points over the course of June.
If sustained until the end of Friday, it would mark the biggest one-month increase since May 1989 – apart from during the market turmoil triggered by the economic agenda of former Prime Minister Liz Truss late last year.
Mortgage rates of 6% represent the same financial burden from repayments as they did in the late 1980s, even though mortgage rates were around 13% then, according to housing market analyst Neal Hudson, founder of consultancy BuiltPlace.
Mortgagors today borrow much greater sums against their income – a ratio that has risen from 2.0 in the late eighties to around 3.5 today – while changes to taxes and mortgage products have also altered the equation.
Bank of England data published on Thursday showed lenders approved more mortgages than expected in May but for the first time since records started in 1986, the value of mortgage lending contracted for a second month running.
Reporting by Andy Bruce
Editing by William Schomberg and Sachin Ravikumar
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The chart below shows the number of active listings since 1982:
The people who told you demographics in the U.S. are awful and that we resemble Japan were drinking some powerful saki. For years, people said slowing U.S. population growth means we will become Japan, but I’ve been focused on demographics and how that will affect housing from 2020-2024. Concerning the housing economics demand curve, it’s always about the net people living and working.
In reality, housing economic modeling takes a lot of work, and some people instead choose marketing gimmicks to make a name for themselves. It’s very sexy to talk gloom and doom about the housing market, but sometimes that doesn’t end well. I have been highly skeptical of stock traders when they talk about housing economics.
And here is a case in point: New home sales came in Tuesday at a big beat of estimates, but the real story is one about supply and demand.
New home sales
From Census: New Home Sales Sales of new single‐family houses in March 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 683,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 9.6 percent (±15.2 percent)* above the revised February rate of 623,000, but is 3.4 percent (±12.7 percent)* below the March 2022 estimate of 707,000.
As we can see in the chart below, it’s not like the new home sales market is booming at all; we aren’t anywhere near the top of sales in 2005 or in 2020. However, what has happened is that the housing data has stabilized.
When did this all happen? The forward-looking housing data started to improve from Nov. 9, 2022, with purchase application data, and almost everyone ignored it. The thing is, builders have time to work off their backlog of homes because they’re efficient sellers — they can cut prices, lower mortgage rates and do what they need to do to sell their product, which is a commodity to them. They don’t have the same issues as an existing homeowner because they’re not living in the home they’re selling.
New Home Monthly Supply
For Sale Inventory and Months’ Supply, The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March was 432,000. This represents a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales rate.
The builders are progressing here; their confidence improves as the monthly supply falls. Context is always crucial with all housing data, and we had a waterfall dive in many housing data lines and bounced from that deep dive.
However, the housing market is still not good enough to start issuing new housing permits. That’s when you will know housing is out of the recession, and when the builders can start building again. It’s that simple.
The data below is a significant improvement for builders, as housing completions are still rising while their monthly supply is falling.
I have a straightforward model for when the homebuilders will start issuing new permits with some kick and duration. My rule of thumb for anticipating builder behavior is based on the three-month supply average. This has nothing to do with the existing home sales market — this monthly supply data only applies to the new home sales market, and the current 7.6 months are too high for the builders to issue new permits with any natural steam.
When supply is 4.3 months and below, this is an excellent market for builders.
When supply is 4.4 to 6.4 months, this is an OK builder market. They will build as long as new home sales are growing.
When the supply is 6.5 months and above, the builders will pull back on construction.
So, as we can see below, the homebuilders are no longer dealing with spiking supply data but a slow-moving downtrend that still needs much work. However, there is a lot more to this the active listing story than meets the eye.
The 7.6 months of supply is broken down this way.
267,000 homes are under construction, still. 4.7 months of supply
94,000 homes still need to start construction. 1.7 months of supply
71,000 homes are completed for sale. 1.2 months of supply
No, I am not kidding you; the mass supply increase some people have been talking about is only 71,000. We are far from the peak of supply during the housing bubble crash nears, which was closer to 200,000.
All in all, Tuesday’s new home sales report is consistent with what we have seen in the new home sales data for many months now. The builders are simply taking advantage of the low total housing inventory by doing whatever it takes to move their product, and that is being helped by paying down the mortgage rate for their buyers. Imagine what the total housing market would look like if mortgage rates were at 5% today.
As part of the Housing Market Tracker, we look at seasonal inventory weekly, and hopefully, the seasonal inventory bottom has already happened, as I talk about here.
Regarding Wall Street’s take on the surprise in the new home sales sector, was it really a surprise? Someone had to be buying the builder stocks, right? The reality is that home sales crashed last year and that didn’t create the inventory that some housing experts were looking for last year and this year. This is where understanding how credit channels impact housing inventory would have helped.
Hopefully, my work during my time as a housing analyst for HousingWire has brought some light into this discussion, and this will be more in focus when the next recession hits. However, until then, the Housing Market Tracker data got ahead of this stabilization in new home sales data, and that shouldn’t have surprised Wall Street.
Two environmentally friendly structures sit on one lot in Marfa, TX, and are ready for the taking.
The unusual abode, constructed in 2012 and listed for $485,000, is made from a sustainable building system and shipping containers.
“The main house is built from SIPs, Structural Insulated Panels, and those SIPs units were actually relocated from across the town,” explains listing agent Lauren Meader Fowlkes, with Kuper Southeby’s International Realty. “They used cranes to pick them up and transport them to this lot and also added the container structures as a guest room. It’s probably one of the most elegant uses of a shipping container that I have ever seen.”
Both structures are a combined 944 square feet and come with views of a nearby pasture. And yet, the place is within walking distance of the downtown area.
“You’re in a neighborhood area of Marfa, so you have a neighbor, but the porches are situated in a way that takes advantage of the privacy and the views,” says Meader Fowlkes.
The SIPs structure has a bedroom, bathroom, kitchen, and living space. Meader Fowlkes calls this portion of the home “the cubes.”
“They have created kind of an L shape with a deck structure in between that takes advantage of the eastern view,” she explains. “There’s [a] covered porch outside of the bedroom on the west side, so that helps keep shade, and you can sit outside.”
Plans for a larger porch, drafted by an architectural firm, will be included in the sale.
Nearby, two containers are stacked on top of each other. The bottom one is currently storage, and the top one has a bedroom and bathroom.
“That container has a roof deck, and the height of the roof deck is right close to the height of the cubes and has a view that stretches 20-plus miles in every direction,” Meader Fowlkes says. “It’s pretty spectacular.”
The view from the cubes overlooks nearby mountains.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the seller is an interior designer. And the home is available furnished.
The owner “had furnishings built for this particular structure,” Meader Fowlkes notes. “The quality of the workmanship is all very good, and it was all done in a way that was very thoughtful about the site.”
Both structures have been successful short-term rentals, and the city allows each unit to rent separately.
“The perfect buyer is someone who would maybe like to be in Marfa full time, or if they can’t be, they can share the property with friends and family or be able to generate rental income,” Meader Fowlkes says. “This property has the ability to function as a full-time home, a successful short-term rental, or you could rent part of it long term. It’s the ideal property.”