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Housing demand is up and it’s time to track the spring housing data and see what the selling season will bring. As I always stress, we are working from the lowest bar ever with demand, so let’s add historical context to the data. But, even with mortgage rates higher this year than last year, demand is rising.
As we get closer to the end of the first month of 2024, forward-looking purchase application data looks good. Once I make some holiday adjustments, we have eight weeks of a positive trend since mortgage rates fell from the 8% high, and as of now, the slightly higher rates we’ve seen recently haven’t impacted the data just yet. Historically, higher rates negatively impact the weekly purchase application data, and I will look for this over the next few weeks . But it’s very early in the seasonal demand timeframe for housing, so we will take it one week at a time. Purchase apps were up 8% week to week and still down 18% year over year. Last year at this time we got a boost in demand with rates heading toward 6%.
Here is a look at last week:
Last week, we saw active inventory fall slightly week to week. This is common in January. We have had some positive purchase application data recently, and the pending home sales report came in as a beat last week. So, inventory falling looks normal. However, I would like to see the inventory bottom very soon and have a more traditional seasonal increase, rather than having a bottom in March or April.
One of the more positive stories about housing inventory recently is that we found a bottom in new listings data last year, and we have been starting to grow new listings data for some time now on a year-over-year basis. It isn’t anything significant, but I will take it after what we have been through the last few years. This is something I talked about on CNBC recently.
Weekly new listing data:
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — nothing abnormal about that. However, this data line accelerates higher when mortgage rates rise, and demand gets hit harder. A perfect example was in 2022: when housing inventory rose faster, the percentage of price cuts rose faster as home sales crashed. That increase matched the slope of the inventory increase, and people needed to cut prices to sell their homes.
Toward the end of 2022, that marketplace changed as home sales stopped crashing and the market stabilized. So far this year, the price cut percentage data is still on pace to break below the lows we saw in 2023 in the spring. This data line is very seasonal, so what is occurring now is very normal.
This is the price-cut percentage for the same week over the last few years:
The 10-year yield is the key for housing in 2024. In my 2024 forecast, I have the 10-year yield range between 3.21%-4.25%, with a critical line in the sand at 3.37%. If the economic data stays firm, we shouldn’t break below 3.21%, but if the labor data gets weaker, that line in the sand — which I call the Gandalf line, as in “you shall not pass” — will be tested.
This 10-year yield range means mortgage rates between 5.75%-7.25%, but this assumes spreads are still bad. The spreads have been improving this year so much that if we hit 4.25% on the 10-year yield, we won’t see 7.25% in mortgage rates.
Last week, we got great news on inflation data, and we have been saying the inflation growth rate has slowed. However, in the economic game of rock-paper-scissors, it’s labor over inflation data, and the jobless claims data are too low, so the Fed hasn’t pivoted yet. Monday’s podcast will go over this topic more clearly.
The 10-year yield started last week at 4.14% and ended the week there. Mortgage rates ranged between 6.875% and 6.95%, ending the week at 6.90%. There is not much movement with the 10-year yield and mortgage rates. It’s wild to think that three to six month PCE inflation data is running below 2%, and mortgage rates are still this high. Remember, the Fed hasn’t pivoted and is still very restrictive.
It’s jobs week! So we will get the four labor reports: Job openings, ADP, jobless claims and the BLS jobs report. The Federal Reserve meets this week: we won’t see a rate cut this time but the key is the language they use in this meeting after the recent inflation data we saw. Also, the question and answers should be very interesting. We also have some home price data, which of course is a bit lagging from what is happening currently, but we will get those reports as well.
Source: housingwire.com
A strong U.S. economy will be a boon for the housing market, Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) chief economist said on Thursday, as it will buoy demand and as inflation continues to fall, mortgage rates will decline as well making home loans more affordable for buyers.
The U.S. economy accelerated at a faster-than-expected clip in the fourth quarter of 2023 at 3.3 percent, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred measurement of inflation’s progress—jumped by 1.7 percent during the quarter. Core PCE, which excludes the often volatile food and energy prices, increased by 2 percent.
These dynamics bode well for the housing market that has been struggling under the weight of record-high mortgage rates, sparked in part by the Fed’s hiking of rate at the most aggressive clip since the 1980s to fight soaring inflation.
The Fed’s funds rate currently sits at 5.25 to 5.5 percent—the highest they have been in two decades—and policymakers have signaled that they will slash rates should inflation come down to their 2 percent target.
But an economy that may avoid a recession as inflation moderates without the Fed’s tight monetary policy doing too much damage to the jobs market would help the housing sector.
“Stronger economic growth will benefit the housing market, keeping demand robust,” Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s chief economist, said in a statement shared with Newsweek. “Moreover, today’s report also showed further reductions in inflation, which will enable the Federal Reserve to cut rates later this year—as they have been hinting.”
Mortgage rates ticked up slightly for the week ending January 25, Freddie Mac said on Thursday, with the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.69 percent.
“The 30-year fixed-rate has remained within a very narrow range over the last month, settling in at 6.69% this week,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement.
Rates look to have stabilized, Khater suggested, encouraging buyers to jump off the fence.
“Despite persistent inventory challenges, we anticipate a busier spring homebuying season than 2023, with home prices continuing to increase at a steady pace,” he said.
A slowdown in rates could have a negative impact on home buyers, some analysts say.
A decline in the cost of home loans would encourage more purchases, and this increase in demand will spark competition at a time when there is a limited supply of homes for sale.
More buyers who can afford mortgages entering the market will push up prices, analysts from Goldman Sachs said this week.
The investment bank’s experts project prices to soar by 5 percent in 2024, a marked revision from their earlier expectation of a 2 percent jump. That trend will continue through next year when prices are forecast to increase by nearly 4 percent, which is also a change from a previously estimated increase of close to 3 percent.
Amid the price increases, Goldman Sachs analysts anticipate that rates will fall to 6.63 percent for the year. This drop in rates from the near 8 percent highs of November 2023, will make house loans more affordable, sparking more demand for properties.
“We have very low inventory of houses for sale, which is generally supportive of prices, along with generally stable demand that is coming from things like household formation,” Roger Ashworth, senior strategist on the structured credit team at Goldman Sachs, said this week.
On Thursday, new home sales climbed up by 8 percent in December, according to government data, while prices declined to two-year lows. The fall in prices and a rise in sales was partly due to builders offering inducements to buyers, according to Yelena Maleyev, a senior economist at KPMG.
“Builders have pivoted to building smaller homes and offering more discounts and concessions, such as mortgage rate buydowns, to bring in buyers sidelined by rising mortgage rates,” she said in a note shared with Newsweek.
But the data from the U.S. Census Bureau also showed that inventory of newly built homes fell last month after going up the previous months. There were 453,000 houses available for sale at the end of December, which accounts for 8.2 months’ worth of supply.
This constituted a 3.5 percent decline from the same time a year ago, Maleyev pointed out.
The lack of inventory also comes at a time when the used homes market has struggled. Sales are down in that segment amid a lack of supply of homes as sellers are reluctant to give up their low rates for new home loans hovering in the mid-6 percent.
This lack of supply will be key to how prices shake out and the outlook for the year is not encouraging.
“If mortgage rates fall below 6 [percent] in 2024, more owners will feel comfortable listing their homes for sale, alleviating some of the shortages, but not enough to close the supply gap,” Maleyev said.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Source: newsweek.com
A variety of notable mortgage rates slumped over the last seven days. While 15-year fixed mortgage rates moved higher, interest rates on 30-year fixed mortgages shrank. For variable rates, the 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage sunk lower.
In November, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage started making sustained drops from its earlier peak of 8%. The most common home loans are now in the 6% to 7% range. Yet the mortgage market always has some level of volatility, and rates have already started inching back up at the start of this year.
“It’s not uncommon to see a shift in the pattern for interest rates in January, sometimes positive, sometimes not,” said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of mortgage site HSH.com.
The current housing market is difficult. High mortgage rates, expensive home prices and tight inventory are keeping homebuying out of reach for many. If you’re looking to buy a home, don’t try to time the market. Instead, experts recommend patience and preparation: Figure out what you can afford and take steps to improve your financial situation.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
If you’re in the market for a home, check out how today’s mortgage rates compare to last week’s. We use rates collected by Bankrate to track daily mortgage rate trends. This table summarizes the average rates offered by lenders across the country:
Loan term | Today’s Rate | Last week | Change |
---|---|---|---|
30-year mortgage rate | 6.99% | 7.00% | -0.01 |
15-year fixed rate | 6.47% | 6.46% | +0.01 |
30-year jumbo mortgage rate | 7.02% | 7.05% | -0.03 |
30-year mortgage refinance rate | 7.19% | 7.21% | -0.02 |
Rates as of Jan. 26, 2024
When picking a mortgage, consider the loan term, or payment schedule. The most common mortgage terms are 15 and 30 years, although 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages also exist. You’ll also need to choose between a fixed-rate mortgage, where the interest rate is set for the duration of the loan, and an adjustable-rate mortgage. With an adjustable-rate mortgage, the interest rate is only fixed for a certain amount of time (commonly five, seven or 10 years), after which the rate adjusts annually based on the market’s current interest rate. Fixed-rate mortgages offer more stability and are a better option if you plan to live in a home in the long term, but adjustable-rate mortgages may offer lower interest rates upfront.
The 30-year fixed-mortgage rate average is 6.99%, which is a decline of 1 basis point from seven days ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) A 30-year fixed mortgage is the most common loan term. It will often have a higher interest rate than a 15-year mortgage, but you’ll have a lower monthly payment.
The average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 6.47%, which is an increase of 1 basis point from the same time last week. Though you’ll have a bigger monthly payment than a 30-year fixed mortgage, a 15-year loan usually comes with a lower interest rate, allowing you to pay less interest in the long run and pay off your mortgage sooner.
A 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage has an average rate of 6.12%, a fall of 25 basis points compared to last week. You’ll typically get a lower introductory interest rate with a 5/1 ARM in the first five years of the mortgage. But you could pay more after that period, depending on how the rate adjusts annually. If you plan to sell or refinance your house within five years, an ARM could be a good option.
Getting a mortgage should always depend on your financial situation and long-term goals. The most important thing is to make a budget and try to stay within your means. CNET’s mortgage calculator below can help homebuyers prepare for monthly mortgage payments.
Mortgage rates were near record lows, around 3%, at the start of the pandemic. That changed as inflation surged and the Federal Reserve kicked off a series of aggressive interest rate hikes, which indirectly drove up mortgage rates. Now, mortgage rates are still more than double what they were just a few years ago.
However, with the central bank keeping interest rates steady since late July, mortgage rates finally saw some sustained decreases in the fall. With the Fed planning to announce its next policy move in late January (and again in mid-March), experts are waiting for the first interest rate cut. It may be months before that happens, but mortgage rates could stabilize and start inching even lower in the coming months.
““The history of economic cycles has taught us that when the markets believe the Fed is done hiking rates, [mortgage rates] make a big move lower before rate cuts happen,” said Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire.
While mortgage forecasters base their projections on different data, most predict rates will remain near or above 7% for the rest of 2023. Here’s a look at where some of the major housing authorities expect average mortgage rates to land at the end of the year.
Though mortgage rates and home prices are high, the housing market won’t be unaffordable forever. It’s always a good time to save for a down payment and improve your credit score to help you secure a competitive mortgage rate when the time is right.
Source: cnet.com
Columbus’s housing market is a dynamic landscape with various trends and factors influencing residents’ choices. From affordable neighborhoods to luxury living options, this article delves into the overall market trends, neighborhood insights, market dynamics and renting scenarios in the Arch City.
The Columbus, Ohio, housing market exhibits a diverse range of trends, catering to individuals with varying preferences and budget constraints. Let’s take a deeper dive into Columbus real estate.
Columbus’s real estate market is categorized as “somewhat competitive”. On average, homes typically sell close to the listed price and enter pending status within approximately 39 days. Alternatively, certain homes may sell for approximately 2% above the list price and enter pending status in around 26 days.
In December 2023, Columbus witnessed a 6.0% increase in home prices compared to the previous year, with a median selling price of $265K. The average time homes spent on the market in Columbus was 43 days, slightly less than the 46 days recorded last year. The number of homes sold in December this year was 731, a decrease from the 820 sold in the same period last year.
The dynamics of the Columbus housing market are influenced by many factors, including economic conditions, job opportunities and urban development initiatives. These factors fluctuate between the varying Columbus neighborhoods. Home prices, buyer demand and overall Columbus housing market trends are dependent on the individual neighborhoods.
The rental market in Columbus offers a diverse array of options, featuring varying prices and living experiences depending on the specific neighborhood. Let’s delve into the current status of the rental market in Columbus.
Columbus has experienced fluctuating rent prices, just as other large US cities have as well. Fifth by Northwest stands out with an average 1-bedroom apartment rent of $1,772, which is a 79% rise in rent YoY.
Areas like Northwest Columbus and Northern Lights saw a small change of 4-5%, raising their one-bedroom options to $1,427 and $965, respectively. Conversely, affordable options are available in Easton and Northeast Columbus, where average 1-bedroom rents are down 3%, bringing rent to $1,511.
In Columbus, the most affordable neighborhoods for renting a one-bedroom apartment include Forest Park East, with an average rent of $720, and Hyde Park, where the average rent is $749. Old North Columbus also offers competitive rental prices at around $750 on average.
For those searching for similarly priced options, North Linden and Indianola Terrace are worth considering, with one-bedroom apartments typically renting for $750 and $800 respectively. These neighborhoods provide more economical living options compared to the Columbus city average of $1,410 for a one-bedroom apartment, catering to budget-conscious renters seeking value and convenience.
Whether individuals are arriving in search of new opportunities or departing for different horizons, tracking these migration patterns contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the Columbus housing dynamics. According to Redfin market data gathered Oct 2023 – Dec 2023, 23% of Columbus homebuyers searched to move out of Columbus, while 77% looked to stay within the metropolitan area.
In Columbus, some of the more luxurious neighborhoods include Weinland Park, where the average rent for a one-bedroom apartment is approximately $1,802, and Dennison Place, with an average rent of $1,790.
For those looking for slightly less expensive options, Tuttle West and the Brewery District are attractive, with average rents for one-bedroom apartments at $1,740 and $1,695, respectively. These neighborhoods offer rental prices that are above the city average of $1,410 for a one-bedroom apartment in Columbus, yet they are known for their unique amenities and desirable locations.
Taxes play a significant role in the overall cost of living in any city. Columbus, Ohio’s minimum combined sales tax rate is 7.5%. This is the total of state and county sales tax rates.
Columbus’ housing market is full of diverse options, catering to a wide range of preferences and budgets. Whether you’re drawn to the affordability of specific neighborhoods or the luxury living options in the city’s busy and popular districts, this guide will assist you in making informed decisions in the pursuit of a home in the Arch City.
With a focused and persistent approach in your hunt for your perfect place, you’ll undoubtedly discover the right one in a remarkably short time.
Source: rent.com
Your first home has served you well, but now you’re ready to move on. What can you expect as a second-time homebuyer? Whether it’s been years or decades since you bought your home, you’ll find some aspects of the home buying process similar and others quite different.
With this guide, you’ll dive into the world of second-time home buying so you can feel confident taking the next step in your homeownership journey.
So, who exactly is a second-time homebuyer? A second-time homebuyer is someone who has previously owned a home and is purchasing another one. They may be moving with the desire to upsize, downsize, relocate or enhance their lifestyle. Or they may be interested in buying an investment property or vacation home.
Second-time homebuyers enjoy several advantages, including the following:
It’s important to note that not all previous homeowners are considered second-time homebuyers. If you’re applying for a conventional loan, you could qualify as a first-time homebuyer if you meet the following criteria:
First-time homebuyer status could give you access to certain programs that offer closing cost aid, down payment assistance, tax benefits and other types of support.
If you currently have a Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loan, you may be able to take out another FHA loan for a new primary residence.
The mortgage process for a second-time homebuyer generally follows the same steps as a first-time homebuyer. As with your first mortgage, a lender will evaluate the following during the underwriting process:
However, if you haven’t applied for a mortgage within the last 15 years, you may notice some differences:
While most mortgages require a down payment, you may qualify for a zero-down payment VA loan if you’re a veteran, service member or military family. With a VA loan, there are:
Already have a VA loan for your first home? As long as your new home will be your primary residence, you may be eligible for another VA purchase loan.
Keep in mind that the less you put down, the greater your monthly mortgage payment will be, and you’ll be paying more in interest over the long term.
While it is common to sell your current home and buy your new one simultaneously, you may choose to do one transaction before the other.
Most people choose to sell before buying, which offers the following benefits:
There are a few drawbacks to be aware of, including:
If you choose to buy your new home before selling your current one, you will:
Some of the disadvantages of taking this route include:
Whether you sell or buy first, you’ll need to get your current home market-ready. Here are some best practices and tips for home-selling success.
Research the housing market. The housing market plays a significant role in the home-selling process. It impacts your pricing strategy, potential time on the market, competition and negotiating power.
For example, in a buyer’s market, homes tend to remain listed for longer and may sell at a lower price. This is great for you as a buyer but not as a seller. You’ll want to price your house competitively, make necessary repairs and stage your home to attract buyers. You may also need to offer buyer incentives, such as paying for some closing costs.
On the other hand, during a seller’s market, strong demand for homes can create bidding-war conditions. You may attract eager buyers willing to pay a premium for your home. Plus, you may sell quickly, providing the down payment funds to purchase your new home soon.
Find a reputable and licensed real estate agent. While you may have used a real estate agent to find your first home, hiring one to sell your current house is a good idea. Selling a home involves many moving parts, and a real estate agent can guide you through the process. They are knowledgeable about market conditions, marketing, negotiating and the steps required to achieve a positive outcome.
Locate a lender. Secure an experienced lender that can help you with your mortgage once you’re ready to purchase a new home. You’ll want to find one that offers a range of loans and competitive rates, as well as a written commitment to lend you a specific amount of money, subject to certain conditions. This type of certification, such as a Pennymac BuyerReady Certification,* demonstrates that you are a serious buyer and can give you the confidence that you’ll be able to obtain the funding you need.
Deep clean, declutter and stage your home. Present your home in its best light by deep cleaning, decluttering and staging. These three steps enhance the visual appeal of your home, create a welcoming atmosphere and allow buyers to envision their belongings in the space.
Make repairs and updates. Potential buyers will be looking for a home in good condition. Make sure your exterior and landscaping are well maintained. Fix broken fixtures, give walls a fresh coat of paint and verify your plumbing, HVAC and electrical systems are all working properly. Consider getting a home inspection before putting your home on the market to identify priority projects. Your real estate agent is also an excellent resource for determining which repairs and updates you should focus on.
The second-time home buying and mortgage process is similar to that of a first-time homebuyer. You’ll need to:
But while the process is basically the same, some other factors, such as those below, may have changed and will influence your next home purchase.
As you navigate the second-time buying process, take into account the following financial considerations:
Shifted market conditions. The real estate market might have changed dramatically since your first home purchase. For example, if you purchased your current home in a buyer’s market, you perhaps had a lot of options and negotiating power. If it’s a seller’s market now, you might encounter tight inventory. Listed homes will sell rapidly, and you may need to be prepared to pay more and forego contingencies to get the home you want.
Your financial situation. How has your financial status evolved over the years? Has your income increased? What expenses do you have now that you didn’t have when you bought your home? Your current financial health will play a role in what loans you will qualify for.
Mortgage underwriting changes. Over the past 15 years, mortgage qualifications have become more stringent and interest rates may have changed significantly. However, if your financial circumstances have improved, you may have increased financing opportunities.
As a second-time homebuyer, you can take advantage of all that equity you have built over the years and put it toward your new home. After closing, you’ll receive the proceeds from your home sale minus any outstanding mortgage balances and transaction costs. You can use those proceeds, as well as any additional savings, for a down payment.
While there are many programs to help first-time homebuyers, there are some that assist individuals in purchasing their second home. Visit the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) or a local government website to explore options in your area. And remember, if you meet first-time homebuyer criteria, don’t rule out first-time homebuyer programs.
In terms of mortgages, second-time homebuyers have numerous options, including conventional, FHA and VA loans. A Pennymac Loan Expert can help you compare loans and work with you to find the one that best fits your needs.
The main differences between first-time and second-time home buying are typically related to mortgage considerations, market conditions and experience.
As a second-time homebuyer, you will not be eligible for grants and other initiatives that aim to assist first-time buyers in obtaining down payment funds. This means that you will likely need some down payment. If you are selling your home, you can use the sale proceeds for your down payment.
Today’s stricter underwriting practices, including more stringent credit standards, are aimed at protecting consumers and the housing market. However, individuals with credit challenges may find it more difficult to qualify for a favorable home loan.
You can leverage your prior experience as a second-time homebuyer. You’ve been through the home buying and mortgage process and may be familiar with the documentation required and the timeline involved. And while the process and market have evolved over the years, your knowledge can equip you with valuable insights and confidence throughout the journey.
Check out these FAQs for answers to some of the most common questions that second-time homebuyers have about mortgages.
Yes, Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans are available to qualified homebuyers who wish to put less than 20% down on their home purchase. Income, debt and credit history requirements are more flexible than conventional mortgages.
FHA loans are also a great option for borrowers who may want to put more than 20% down. They allow for a 580 credit score, whereas conventional loan pricing gets expensive the lower the credit score is.
Common requirements for second-time homebuyers depend on the type of loan, but a lender will consider your credit score, income, debt and down payment when evaluating your mortgage application.
Yes, Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans and VA loans are available to second-time buyers. States and local governments may also offer programs to help second-time homebuyers. Check the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development website or your local government website to explore available options in your area.
Moving to your next home is exciting, but being prepared before diving into the home-selling and buying process is essential. Reach out to a Pennymac Loan Expert who will help guide you through the mortgage process, answer your questions and discuss a variety of competitive rates and loan options.
*As long as the sales price does not exceed the appraised home value.
**Customers with a Pennymac BuyerReady Certification prior to locking any Pennymac purchase loan get $1,000 applied as a discount off total closing costs and/or principal curtailment, subject to investor guidelines. Excludes Jumbo, refinance, third-party and in-process loans. Offer subject to change or cancellation without notice.
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Source: pennymac.com
(Bloomberg) — A gauge of pending US existing-home sales rebounded sharply in December to a five-month high, suggesting the recent drop in mortgage rates is helping to stabilize the resale market.
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The National Association of Realtors’ index of contract signings increased 8.3% to 77.3 after holding at a record low a month earlier, according to data out Friday. Last month’s advance — the largest since mid-2020 — exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
“The housing market is off to a good start this year, as consumers benefit from falling mortgage rates and stable home prices,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement. “Job additions and income growth will further help with housing affordability, but increased supply will be essential to satisfying all potential demand.”
While 30-year fixed mortgage rates remain below 7%, a sustained decline is needed to encourage more homeowners to list homes that are financed at much lower levels. Until that develops, a limited inventory of previously owned homes will make it difficult for the resale market to rapidly gain traction.
A lack of listings have also worked to keep existing-home prices elevated. At the same time, builders have been filling the void with new construction. The number of new houses for sale at the end of 2023 rose to a more than one-year high, helping push those prices down.
The pending-home sales report is a leading indicator of existing-home sales given houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold. Those sales are expected to increase 13% this year, according to NAR’s economic outlook. They slumped 18.7% in 2023.
The NAR’s report showed the index of contract signings for existing homes jumped nearly 12% in the South, the biggest US housing market. That was the largest advance since June 2020. Pending sales also surged 14% in the West and climbed 5.6% in the Midwest.
–With assistance from Kristy Scheuble.
(Adds graphic)
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Source: finance.yahoo.com
Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler sat down with Matt VanFossen, CEO of Absolute Home Mortgage and Mortgage Automation Technologies, to talk about his unique view of the housing ecosystem and how it influences how he builds technology. Van Fossen not only heads a mortgage lender and a tech company, but is the president of the Mortgage Bankers Association of New Jersey and a board member of the Community Home Lenders of America.
Sarah Wheeler: You wear a lot of hats. How do all those different roles influence the technology you build?
Matt VanFossen: We build technology not only to sell but that we want to use. That culture resonates throughout our company and into our product lines. A differentiating factor of our tech is that lots of point of sale systems are built to faciitate loan officers with the business they already have. While we do that, we’re also focused on driving new business — from new clients but also from the relationships they already have.
We are focused on compliance and data capture at the top of the funnel, so we look at: how do we introduce loan officers not only to new technology, but to new business opportunities?
SW: What does that look like in very practical terms?
MVF: We realized that we needed to focus on the real estate agents our loan officers work with. Over the past 10 years, loan officers have become accustomed to forwarding their application right to the referral and taking the app, but what about their real estate agent counter-parties? Right now LOs have to go and remind agents and constantly be in front of them asking about referrals.
But a real estate agent has a limited amount of resources for elevating their referral. They might be driving down the road when they get a call or text message. Then they have to take whatever information they got and manually enter into their CMS. So we recoded the point of sale system so we can partner with agents on software. Now they have their own online application, but it’s not an application for a mortgage — it’s an application to buy or sell a house.
And now, anytime the agent uses those workflows, the loan officers are privy to that information. LOs can easily go in and see if they need to be preapproved and do that from their phone. So we reverse-engineered a lot of what we’ve built for loan officers and applied it to agents.
We basically created a massive collaboration system. From the first point of contact the customer has with the agent, they are being introduced to a digital ecosphere and they can remain in sthe ame portal all the way through the transaction. It’s the same portal to sign docs, eClose, get servicing information, even post-closing information. And if they ever need to apply for a new mortgage or refinance, they’re still living inside that port. So we’re keeping our customer from the first point of interaction all the way till the end of the real estate transaction and for the remainder of their lives inside of a single ecosphere.
SW: What was the “aha” moment that led to this development?
MVF: I hang out with a lot of LOs and agents, just in a social context, so the aha moment came when I was on a trip with friends. One is an agent and the other is an LO, and they both had to step away from the table like four different times, and I realized that the agent was getting new client referrals and had to pass that back to their team manually. I had completely missed this — that real estate agents don’t have an online application. An LO can text the link to their application portal, but not the agent. I realized we’ve been focusing for a decade on how to streamline this process for LOs but had abandoned our counterparties.
Because of my positions at a tech company, a mortgage company and in regulatory compliance, I have a view into all three points of this triangle — and I have developers that can go build it! Sitting on top of all three at the same time, I can see how they are all intimately intertwined, and I can test it with my own lender. I’m a user of this tech so I’m the mad scientist that’s experimenting on himself! I can jump in and code something, call an agent to have them come in and see it, then use with my own clients first. Then we can think about the enterprise version. It’s almost farm-to-table programming.
SW: So does that mean you only build versus buy?
MVF: No, because there are differet platforms that have some amazing features. We will build over buy in certain things but you can’t take over everything. We have some fabulous vendor tech partners in this industry. We’re focused on point of sale because it gives us control over the loan officer and agent and client experience, so we want to be in the driver’s seat for that.
But even with that mini-POS for agents, it’s not a full-blown CRM and they still need to use their CRM vendors, who will be better at journey campaigns, for example. And we work with awesome loan origination systems like Encompass to maintain compliance and a database. We can’t conquer every avenue so for us it’s about strategy and where we can get the biggest lift with our own tech and then shop the marketplace for strategic partners.
SW: What keeps you up at night? Security?
MVF: I am constantly thinking about this and how I’m not only responsible for cybersecurity for my various companies but also now my point of sale. But we’re very unique and the architecture we built for it was not possible more than a year ago. So rather than having two databases — one POS database where people apply online and then that application goes into another database where you hold that PII inside of it, and you synch those through an API — we don’t do it that way. We have single source of truth.
When an application comes in, or any of the Realtor referrals come in, they all get logged immediately into ICE’s Encompass. We don’t have a database — it all instantaneously, through an encrypted API transaction, as soon as the application hits it goes into Encompass. So there’s only one place and location and all of the loan data resides in that. So we are now more secure than ever because ICE has phenomenal information security. So what we do is put a customization layer on top of it. It’s a highly configurable, easy-to-use user interface that shares a database, rather than maintaining two databases. And that solves a lot of cybersecurity issues.
The other thing that keeps me up is mortgage rates and when we’ll see quantitative easing. What the industry really needs is to get some tailwind into the market.
When you look at the three things I’m involved in — I’m running a lender, I’m running a FinTech and I’m in advocacy. What solves all of that is a little bit lower interest rates. That will strengthen the housing market and make sure that independent mortgage bankers have stability in extremely volatile times. That ensures the tech company will continue to innovate, and all of those things together is going to help consumers, especially low to moderate income consumers.
Source: housingwire.com
Mortgage rates stabilized in the past week but remain close to the narrow range observed since the start of this month.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.69% as of Jan. 25, an increase from last week’s figure of 6.60%, according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey released on Thursday. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed rate averaged 5.96% this week, up from 5.76% during the prior week. And HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed that Optimal Blue’s average 30-year fixed rate for conventional loans was 6.713% on Thursday, up from 6.709% at the same time last week.
“Given this stabilization in rates, potential homebuyers with affordability concerns have jumped off the fence back into the market,” Freddie Mac chief economist Sam Khater said in a statement. “Despite persistent inventory challenges, we anticipate a busier spring homebuying season than 2023, with home prices continuing to increase at a steady pace.”
In the short term, all eyes are turned toward the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next Tuesday and Wednesday. According to Realtor.com economist Jiayi Xu, December’s higher-than-expected inflation reading made a dent in market confidence concerning the Federal Reserve’s readiness to implement interest rate cuts.
“The Federal Reserve is now facing a new challenge: determining the optimal timing for a shift to rate cuts,” Xu said in a statement. “The central bank faces the dilemma of potential negative impacts on the economy if the current restrictive policy persists longer and the risk of a dangerous rebound in inflation in 2024 if rates are cut prematurely.”
Mat Ishbia, chairman and CEO of United Wholesale Mortgage, told CNBC on Monday that he believed the Fed might start to cut rates as soon as March, April or May.
Meanwhile, the Bright MLS forecast for 2024 calls for mortgage rates to decline further this year, reaching 6.2% by the fourth quarter. But inventory is likely to remain an issue for homebuyers this year, cautioned Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS. To stay within budget, buyers will have to talk through trade-offs and compromises with a real estate professional who understands local market conditions, Sturtevant said in a statement.
In January, builder confidence came in strong on the strength of declining mortgage rates. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) report rose seven points month-over-month to a reading of 44 in January.
Source: housingwire.com
“Overall, we expect 2024 to be a better year than 2023 for homebuyer affordability and the mortgage industry,” Fannie Mae’s chief economist said.
WASHINGTON – The housing market will begin a gradual return to a “more normal balance” in 2024, and mortgage rates are expected to end the year below 6%, Fannie Mae analysts said.
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group said the lower rate environment should boost refinance volumes, which are already on the upswing. Lower rates are also likely to loosen the so-called lock-in effect that’s had a stronghold on the market.
“In fact, the ESR Group expects the annualized pace of existing home sales to move up to 4.5 million units by the fourth quarter of 2024, compared to 3.8 million in Q4 2023,” Fannie Mae analysts said in the January report. “However, a full recovery to the pre-pandemic sales rate is expected to take years, as housing affordability remains stretched extremely thin by historical standards relative to household incomes.”
At the same time, housing supply shortages and affordability constraints will continue to bolster the market for new single-family homes, with 2024 starts and new home sales forecast to top 2023 levels.
The ESR Group also said home prices are expected to rise 3.2% over the year, compared to 7.1% in 2023. While the latest forecast continues to project a slowdown in economic growth in 2024, the ESR Group anticipates a brighter economic backdrop compared to previous months, replacing its call for a modest recession with positive-but-below-trend growth in 2024.
The ESR Group noted the rapid recent easing in financial conditions, the Federal Reserve’s December meeting and the solid, upward trend in real personal income growth in October and November as positive impulses for growth over the coming quarters. But, the group said, the economy still faces a higher-than-normal risk of recession.
“Inflation’s decline and the resultant Fed pivot to signaling future rate cuts rates lead us to believe that home sales and mortgage originations likely bottomed out in the second half of 2023 and that a gradual improvement is now underway,” Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae senior vice president and chief economist, said.
“We expect mortgage rates to dip below 6% by year-end 2024 and for homebuilders to continue to add new supply, both of which should aid affordability. Additionally, the decline in mortgage rates is likely to push refinancing volumes upward, along with some pickup in purchase financing. However, even at less than 6 percent, we think rates will still have a significant way to go in order to meaningfully reduce the ‘lock-in effect’ experienced by homeowners who refinanced or bought during the pandemic. Overall, we expect 2024 to be a better year than 2023 for homebuyer affordability and the mortgage industry.”
© 2024 Florida Realtors®
Source: floridarealtors.org
Last month, DataDigest explored market experts’ expectations for 2024, with the consensus calling for a moderately better housing market than 2023.
But a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee the following week set off a market frenzy over expectations of interest rate cuts, moving mortgage rates down well ahead of experts’ forecasts and prompting a subsequent DataDigest that asked whether the picture for 2024 had changed.
On Jan. 18, Fannie Mae weighed in: yes.
Fannie Mae’s latest monthly forecast for the housing market predicts much lower mortgage rates than its December forecast — and thus more home sales and mortgage originations.
Mortgage rates, which dropped precipitously the week of the FOMC meeting, are key to Fannie Mae’s rosier view of the road ahead in 2024. Fannie Mae’s quarterly rate forecasts this month were far lower than last month’s and were its lowest forecasts in at least six months.
“Following the Fed ‘pivot’ in December, an anticipation of more dovish policy, and the recent decline in interest rates, our mortgage rate forecast has been revised meaningfully lower this month,” Fannie Mae wrote in its forecast release.
Mortgage rates have hovered around 6.7% — Fannie Mae’s December forecast for 2024’s average — since mid-December, and the company’s forecast for 2024’s average is now 6.1% with rates dropping below 6% by year end. This should prompt a “gradual recovery” in home sales and single-family mortgage origination, according to Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Doug Duncan.
“Inflation’s decline and the resultant Fed pivot to signaling future rate cuts lead us to believe that home sales and mortgage originations likely bottomed out in the second half of 2023 and that a gradual improvement is now underway,” he said in a statement.
“We expect mortgage rates to dip below 6 percent by year-end 2024 and for homebuilders to continue to add new supply, both of which should aid affordability. Additionally, the decline in mortgage rates is likely to push refinancing volumes upward, along with some pickup in purchase financing.”
The company’s quarterly forecasts for existing and new homes are up significantly from its forecasts from recent months.
Its forecasts for single-family purchase and refinance originations are also above its recent forecasts, although not as dramatically higher as with home sales.
Although Fannie Mae’s outlook for 2024 is up, Duncan warned against getting too carried away.
“However, even at less than 6 percent, we think rates will still have a significant way to go in order to meaningfully reduce the ‘lock-in effect’ experienced by homeowners who refinanced or bought during the pandemic,” he said.
The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes — a major factor in setting mortgage rates — opened December at 4.2%. On the heels of mid-month FOMC meeting, the rate fell to a low of 3.8% on Dec. 27.
That drop has been completely erased already in 2024, with the latest rate above 4.1%.
The steep rebound was fueled in part by comments Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller made at a virtual event hosted by the Brookings Institution on Jan. 16. Waller said rates should be cut “methodically and carefully” and added, “I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past.”
Equity traders, too, have been skittish regarding interest-rate-sensitive stocks — the same stocks that fueled a late December stock market rally. Traders sold off stocks of real estate investment trusts and speculative tech companies last week, but share prices have rebounded so far this week.
The pullbacks signal bond and equity traders are becoming less optimistic about a March rate cut. We’ll have to wait until February’s forecast to see if Fannie Mae’s optimism holds or if traders’ skepticism spreads.
Source: housingwire.com