As 2024 has progressed, economic data–especially inflation data–have made it increasingly clear that rates will not be coming down nearly as soon as the Fed (and the market) expected.
Rates are driven by multiple factors. At present, inflation is chief among those, followed by the economy. In general, higher inflation and economic strength coincide with higher rates.
Inflation and economic data evolved in such a way as to offer some light at the end of the high rate tunnel at the end of 2023. Even the Fed acknowledged the shift by lowering its 2024 rate projection by half a percent in December.
But 2024 has proven to be a frustrating year so far for everyone who’d been hoping that inflation and rates were finally on the way back down. We weren’t necessarily expecting to see any new fireworks this week, but we got them anyway.
The trouble began on Thursday morning with the release of the quarterly GDP data. One component of GDP is “personal consumption expenditures” (PCE). One manifestation of the PCE data is a price index which in turn has a variation that excludes food and energy to give us the Core PCE Price Index.
Core PCE is akin to Core CPI and it happens to be preferred by the Fed when it comes to tracking the 2% inflation target. There are several different Core PCE measurement methods, which can make things fairly confusing on weeks when the data is released. They include:
Annualized quarterly Core PCE, which takes an average of 3 monthly readings and determines the % change versus the average of the 3 months in the previous quarter before multiplying the result by 4 to get an annualized figure (i.e. this is what annual core inflation would look like if the quarter over quarter trajectory were maintained for an entire year. This number is only released once per quarter, but it is revised on each of the next 2 months as new monthly data comes in.
Monthly Core PCE, which is released every month and serves as the raw ingredient for quarterly PCE
Annual Core PCE, which is just a year-over-year version of the monthly data
All of the above come from the same report, but all can send different signals. To make matters more confusing, the quarterly number is released with GDP one day BEFORE the monthly number, but without the same level of detail.
Long story short, the annualized quarterly Core PCE, which had been back in the Fed’s target range until this week, suddenly did this:
Markets knew it would be moving up. They’d guessed the number would be 3.4%, in fact (which makes sense based on the 2 months of data we already had for Q1 compared to Q4’s tamer numbers). But the actual number was 3.7%, which is quite a big “beat” when it comes to inflation indices.
Markets panicked initially, with stocks selling off and bond yields spiking to the highest levels since early November. Traders who bet on the Fed Funds rate quickly increased their levels for the end of 2024.
A day later, however, and the more detailed, monthly PCE data painted a slightly softer picture. With March numbers now able to be compared to March 2023, the true year over year number was 2.8% (still too high, but not as high as the previous day’s data might have suggested).
The news was slightly better when viewed in month over month terms. Here too, inflation is still almost twice as hot as the Fed would like to see, but it was actually slightly lower than last month (after revisions). To be clear, we’re saying that the pace of price increases is lower–not prices themselves.
Some people get upset when economic data is revised in a way that makes it seem like the government tried to paint a rosier picture for initial releases. In addition to numerous examples of past revisions having a completely opposite effect, rest assured, the financial market sees all the moving parts and trades accordingly. Specifically, even after the softer data came out on Friday, bond yields (a fancy word for “rates”) were still higher than they were before the previous day’s data and significantly higher than the lows seen on Tuesday after PMI data.
The PMI data refers to S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers Indices (PMIs). This is another version of the highly regarded PMIs from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Both firms produce PMIs that track the manufacturing and services sector. Tuesday’s version from S&P Global came in unexpectedly lower on both fronts. It may not look like much of a drop on a chart, but markets are intently focused on economic momentum as it could speak to the prospects for inflation and rates in the future.
The prospects for mortgage rates have not been great in April. While we did see some relief on Friday, Thursday’s reaction to the quarterly PCE data brought the average 30yr fixed rate to new 5 month highs–a fact that is not yet reflected in Freddie’s weekly survey numbers.
In this week’s other economic news, Pending Home Sales rose more than expected (which is a good sign for next month’s existing home sales). They’re now no longer losing ground in year over year terms.
The major caveat is that the outright level of pending home sales remains near the lowest in decades.
New Home Sales are a different story. While they’re certainly not as high as they were a few years ago, they’ve held up much better on a combination of available inventory and builder incentives.
The week ahead brings several key events.
Monday:
Treasury will issue a quarterly update on borrowing needs in stages on Monday and Wednesday. This has been a hot button for rates the last few cycles.
Wednesday:
The Fed announcement (2pm, ET) is important because it will likely contain an update on how the Fed is handling its balance sheet run-off. This doesn’t mean the Fed is going to buy new bonds again, but they will soon announce that they’ll maintain more of their existing bond holdings. Experts disagree on whether this will matter for rates, but that could depend on the details. More importantly, we’ll get updated thoughts from Powell in the press conference (2:30pm ET) that follows the announcement. Even before this week’s data, the Fed was already questioning whether it would be able to cut rates at all in 2024. The PCE data arguably writes those questions in ink.
ISM’s version of the manufacturing PMI will be released at 10am ET as well as the Job Openings data for March. Treasury releases the more detailed stage of the borrowing announcement at 8:30am ET.
Friday
The big monthly jobs report will be released on Friday morning at 8:30am ET followed 90 minutes later by ISM’s service sector PMI
Investors evaluating precious metals often ask: gold vs silver, which is better for investors? In this comparison, discover the investment merits of gold’s stability and silver’s industrial relevance, geared towards helping you decide which metal suits your financial strategy. Without leaning towards one or the other, this article presents a balanced view to inform your choice.
Key Takeaways
Gold and silver serve as a store of value and a hedge against inflation, with gold mainly being an investment asset while silver has significant industrial applications, impacting their price volatility and investment suitability.
Gold is revered as a safe haven asset, attracting investment during economic turmoil and serving as an inflation hedge, while silver’s dual role in industry and investment sectors offers growth potential and affordability.
Investors should consider precious metals within a diversified portfolio and can choose between physical metals, ETFs, or mining stocks, each with its own benefits and risks, and should evaluate after-inflation returns and personal financial goals to decide between gold and silver.
Gold and silver, the titans of precious metals, have long served as a reliable store of value and an effective inflation hedge. While gold primarily functions as an investment asset, offering potential for significant returns to those with larger capital, silver boasts an additional industrial role, broadening its appeal. However, investing in these precious metals isn’t as simple as stashing bars or coins in a safe. It involves dealing with price volatility and aligning your investment with long-term goals.
Adopting a buy-and-hold approach may serve investors best over the long term when investing in gold and silver. But why? It’s because the prices of these metals are shaped by a vast array of factors. Geopolitical issues, economic turmoil, and demands in the industrial sector all play a part in the daily dance of gold and silver prices. Understanding these factors can help you make informed decisions about when and how much to invest.
So why consider precious metals as part of your investment portfolio? They offer a unique combination of benefits:
Gold, with its reputation as a safe haven, attracts those looking for stability amidst market chaos
Silver, with its dual role in the industrial and investment sectors, offers an affordable entry point for investors with smaller capital
Both metals provide a robust way to diversify your portfolio and protect against inflation.
Understanding Gold’s Position as a Safe Haven Asset
Gold has long been a symbol of stability and security in the financial world. Its glittering history spans centuries, maintaining its value even in times of economic turmoil. It’s no wonder that in periods of global uncertainty or financial crises, investors often flock to gold, buoying its value and cementing its reputation as a safe haven.
One of gold’s most notable features is its role as an inflation hedge. As the cost of living increases, inflation hedge gold has shown a remarkable ability to preserve the real value of assets. This unique characteristic comes from how gold’s supply growth aligns with long-term global economic growth, helping to maintain its value during inflationary periods. This resilience, coupled with the tendency of investors to shift towards gold as a safe haven during inflation, can drive up its demand and price.
Given these factors, it’s clear why gold holds a revered place in the financial market. Whether you’re looking for a buffer against economic instability or an asset that can protect your buying power in the face of rising prices, gold stands firm as a reliable safe haven asset.
Silver’s Dual Role: Industrial Demand and Investment Segment
While gold may steal the spotlight for its luster and stability, silver plays a shining role of its own. Apart from being an investment asset, silver’s widespread industrial applications can drive up its price and enhance its investment appeal. In 2023, industrial applications reached a new record high, with photovoltaics usage increasing by a staggering 64%. China’s industrial demand for silver surged by 44% in the same year, predominantly driven by growth in green applications such as:
photovoltaics
solar panels
batteries
electronics
medical devices
These industrial applications highlight the versatility and value of both silver and silver bullion coins as an investment.
Due to its significant industrial use and affordable price point, silver is an accessible option for investors with smaller amounts of capital. However, the silver lining has a cloud. During economic downturns, silver’s industrial use can result in a drop in demand and a corresponding price drop. This volatility underscores the need for investors to consider their risk tolerance when investing in silver.
Despite its volatility, the forecast for silver demand in 2024 predicts a growth of 2%, with industrial production expected to achieve new records. This projected growth, along with silver’s role in portfolio diversification and potential for future price appreciation, suggests that silver’s investment appeal may shine brighter in the future.
Including gold and silver in a diversified portfolio can enhance performance during market volatility and inflation. Financial advisors often suggest allocating 5-10% of an investment portfolio to commodities like gold and silver for diversification purposes. The logic is simple: gold offers diversification due to its historically low correlation with other financial assets such as stocks and bonds.
The inclusion of gold and silver, primarily an investment asset class, which unlike an asset produces cash flow, can act as an uncorrelated asset relative to equities, serving to diminish the total volatility of the portfolio.
Some benefits of including silver in your portfolio are:
Silver has significant industrial applications
It is positively correlated with periods of economic growth
Anticipated growth in areas such as renewable energy and artificial intelligence suggests an expanding demand for silver.
However, it’s crucial for investors to consider the following factors when determining the fit of precious metals within their investment strategies:
Potential costs for secure storage of precious metals
The speculative nature of precious metals
Due diligence and careful consideration of your financial circumstances
As with any investment decision, due diligence and careful consideration of your financial circumstances are key, including addressing portfolio risk management requirements.
While investing in physical precious metals has its appeal, precious metal mining stocks offer an intriguing alternative. Gold stocks provide a leveraged play that can outperform physical gold when prices rise, offering substantial potential for capital gains. The reason? Mining stocks do not just reflect the value of the precious metal. They also include the prospects of mining companies themselves.
Compared to physical gold, gold stocks offer several advantages:
They are more liquid and can be easily bought and sold.
They can provide additional income through dividends paid by established, profitable mining companies.
Investors can benefit from the expansion of mining operations and reap profits from significant new gold discoveries.
These advantages make gold stocks an enticing option for those looking to diversify their portfolio.
Moreover, by choosing gold mining stocks, investors can avoid the extra costs associated with the storage and security of physical gold. This can make gold stocks a more convenient and cost-effective alternative for investors who want exposure to gold without the logistical challenges of owning physical metal.
Physical Bullion vs. ETFs: Choosing Your Investment Vehicle
When considering precious metals as part of your investment strategy, it’s essential to explore all available options. Physical bullion and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) present two distinct investment vehicles, each with its own set of advantages and challenges. Gold ETFs, for instance, offer enhanced liquidity compared to physical gold, allowing investors to quickly buy and sell shares without facing the logistical challenges tied to physical transactions of gold.
Investing in gold ETFs can also be more cost-effective over time. Investors do not have to deal with the costs of purchasing and maintaining physical gold, and the responsibilities of securing and insuring the physical gold are professionally managed by the fund. However, it’s crucial to remember that the value of shares in gold ETFs may not track the price of gold precisely, as the fund’s expenses could slightly erode the value of these shares over time.
On the other hand, investing in physical gold comes with its own set of considerations. Apart from the allure of owning a tangible asset, investors must account for costs such as storage fees, insurance, and potentially higher dealer premiums over the market price. Additionally, purchasing physical gold requires vigilance due to the risks of scams, necessitating transactions with reputable dealers and possible appraisal costs, which add to the overall investment expense.
Evaluating After-Inflation Returns: Gold vs. Silver
When it comes to returns, it’s crucial to look beyond the nominal figures and consider the real value – the after-inflation returns. And in this regard, the performance of gold and silver may not be as glittering as one might expect. However, these precious metals have historically provided a hedge against inflation, offering returns that outpace inflation over certain periods. Here are some key points to consider:
Gold and silver can serve as a portfolio diversifier, helping to reduce risk.
Silver, due to its abundance, may have less upside potential compared to gold.
Both gold and silver have historically provided a hedge against inflation.
While the after-inflation returns of gold and silver may not always be stellar, considering past investment product performance, they can still play a valuable role in a well-diversified investment portfolio, remaining steady amid inflation uncertainties.
Gold tends to perform well during economic downturns and protections against inflation; studies confirm a positive correlation between the rising cost of living and the value of both precious metals. This ability to preserve wealth becomes particularly valuable during periods of high inflation, increasing their attractiveness as part of an investment strategy.
While the after-inflation returns for gold and silver may not be highly impressive when compared to other investments, rising inflation typically enhances their attractiveness as part of an investment strategy. This context underscores the importance of considering multiple factors – including inflation, market conditions, and personal financial goals – when evaluating the potential returns on your investment in gold and silver.
Making the Decision: Should You Buy Gold or Silver?
So, armed with all this knowledge, how do you decide between gold and silver? The answer isn’t one-size-fits-all. Investors should assess their individual financial circumstances and objectives when considering gold or silver investments, as the suitability can greatly vary depending on personal financial situations and goals.
The choice between gold or silver as a better investment option hinges largely on the individual’s risk tolerance and comfort with each investment strategy. It’s crucial to remember that while both precious metals can serve as hedges against inflation and economic downturns, they also present unique risks and opportunities. For instance, gold’s role as a safe haven asset may appeal to those seeking stability, while silver’s industrial applications and lower price point could attract investors looking for growth and affordability.
Before making the final call, it’s advisable to seek the guidance of a financial advisor to evaluate the appropriateness of gold or silver investments for your portfolio. Additionally, conducting independent research into gold and silver investment strategies can help you make a well-informed decision. Armed with knowledge and guided by your financial goals, you are well-equipped to make the golden (or silver) choice that’s right for you.
Summary
When it comes to precious metals, gold and silver stand as powerful contenders. Their unique characteristics offer distinct advantages for investors, making them an appealing inclusion in a diversified portfolio. Gold, with its safe-haven status, serves as a buffer against economic instability, while silver, with its industrial applications and affordable price, presents growth opportunities and accessibility to investors.
Ultimately, the decision to invest in gold, silver, precious metal mining stocks, or any other asset class should be guided by a thorough understanding of your financial goals, risk tolerance, and market conditions. It’s not about choosing the shiniest option, but the one that aligns best with your investment strategy and financial aspirations. So, whether you’re drawn to the allure of gold or the versatility of silver, remember – knowledge is the most precious asset of all.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors influence the price of gold and silver?
The prices of gold and silver are influenced by various factors, including global economic stability, inflation rates, currency values, interest rates, and mining supply. Geopolitical events and investor sentiment can also cause significant price fluctuations.
Can I invest in gold and silver without owning physical metals?
Yes, investors can gain exposure to gold and silver without owning physical metals by investing in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), mining stocks, or mutual funds that focus on precious metals.
How does the industrial demand for silver affect its investment value?
The industrial demand for silver, particularly in technology and renewable energy sectors, can significantly affect its investment value. As demand for industrial applications rises, the price of silver may increase, potentially offering capital gains to investors.
What risks are associated with investing in precious metals?
Investing in precious metals carries risks such as market volatility, liquidity issues, and potential losses if prices decline. Additionally, physical metal investments may incur costs for storage and insurance.
Are there any tax considerations when investing in gold and silver?
Yes, there are tax considerations when investing in gold and silver. Capital gains on precious metals may be subject to taxation, and the tax treatment may differ depending on the investment vehicle (e.g., physical metals, ETFs, stocks). A tax professional can help you with this.
How do geopolitical events impact gold and silver prices?
Geopolitical events can have a significant impact on gold and silver prices. Uncertainty and instability often lead investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold, which can drive up prices. Conversely, positive geopolitical developments can reduce demand for safe havens, potentially lowering prices.
What is the best way to track the prices of gold and silver?
Investors can track the prices of gold and silver through financial news websites, commodity exchanges, and market data services. Many investment platforms also provide real-time pricing information for precious metals.
How do central bank policies affect gold and silver investments?
Central bank policies, such as interest rate adjustments and quantitative easing, can affect the value of currencies and influence investor sentiment towards precious metals. Policies that lead to currency devaluation can increase the attractiveness of gold and silver as a store of value.
Whether you’re in the market for a new student loan or looking to lower your current student loan payments, there may be a federal loan program available to help.
Student loan programs sponsored by the federal government are available to any eligible borrower (not just federal employees) and don’t always require a credit check. They also come with some advantages over private student lending options, such as income-based repayment plans, forgiveness programs, and (in some cases) lower interest rates.
Whatever stage you’re at in your education or borrowing journey, here’s what you need to know about federal student loan programs.
Why Consider Federal Loan Programs?
The federal government offers student loan programs for undergraduate students, graduate students, as well as those who are in the repayment phase of their student loan journey. These programs include:
• Direct Subsidized Loans With Direct Subsidized Loans, which are available to students who demonstrate financial need, the government pays all the interest that accrues on the loan during school and for six months after graduation.
• Direct Unsubsidized Loans Direct Unsubsidized Loans are available to eligible undergraduate, graduate, and professional students and are not based on financial need. With these loans, students are responsible for repaying all interest that accrues on the loan.
• Direct PLUS Loans Graduate or professional students (and parents of undergraduate students) can tap into Direct PLUS Loans. Eligibility isn’t based on financial need, but you must undergo a credit check. These loans have higher interest rates and fees than Direct Unsubsidized Loans, but you can borrow more money — up to your total cost of attendance, minus other aid received.
• Direct Consolidation Loans Direct Consolidation Loans allow you to combine your eligible federal student loans into a single loan with one loan servicer. This can simplify repayment. However, it won’t lower your interest rate. 💡 Quick Tip: Ready to refinance your student loan? You could save thousands.
Take control of your student loans. Ditch student loan debt for good.
Benefits of Federal Loan Programs for Students
Federal loan programs offer a number of benefits for college students. Here are some to keep in mind.
• Payments not due until six months after graduation: Students don’t need to make any payments on their student loans while they are in school at least half-time or during the post-graduation grace period, which is six months.
• Fixed interest rates: Federal student loans have fixed interest rates that are often lower than student loans from private lenders. For federal loans first disbursed on or after July 1, 2023, and before July 1, 2024, the rate is 5.50% for undergraduate Direct Subsidized and Unsubsidized Loans; 7.05% for Direct Unsubsidized Loans for graduate students; and 8.05% for Direct PLUS Loans.
• Subsidized options: If you have financial need, the government may offer you a subsidized loan, which means the government pays the interest while you’re in school at least half-time and for six months after you graduate.
• No credit checks for certain loans: You don’t need a credit check to qualify for Direct Subsidized or Unsubsidized Loans.
Federal Loan Programs to Consider After You Graduate
Once you graduate and need to begin paying back your federal student loans, the government offers a number of programs that can make repayment more manageable. Here’s a look at some of your options.
Federal Student Loan Repayment Plans
The Education Department offers a number of different repayment plans, including long-term plans that can last up to 30 years. You may be able to lower your monthly payment if you opt for a longer repayment term. Extending your repayment term generally means paying more in interest overall, though.
Fixed repayment plans include the Standard, Graduated, and Extended plans. Here’s a look at how they compare.
Fixed Repayment Plan
Eligible Loans
Monthly Payment Amount
Standard Plan
Direct Subsidized and Unsubsidized Loans; Subsidized and Unsubsidized Federal Stafford Loans; PLUS loans, Consolidation loans
Payments are a fixed amount that ensures your loans are paid off within 10 years (within 10 to 30 years for Consolidation Loans)
Graduated Plan
Direct Subsidized and Unsubsidized Loans; PLUS loans; Consolidation Loans
Payments start out lower and then increase, usually every two years. Payment amounts ensure you’ll pay off loans within 10 years (within 10 to 30 years for Consolidation Loans)
Extended Plan
To qualify, you must have more than $30,000 in outstanding Direct Loans (or FFEL Program loans)
Payments can be fixed or graduated and will ensure that your loans are paid off within 25 years
Income-Driven Repayment Plans
Income-driven repayment (IDR) plans aim to make student loan payments more manageable by tying them to the borrower’s income. They allow you to pay a percentage of your discretionary income toward federal loans for 20 to 25 years, at which point the remaining loan balances are forgiven.
The Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) Plan is the newest and one of the most affordable repayment plans for federal student loans. For some borrowers, payments can be as low as $0 per month.
Here’s a look at how the four IDR federal loan payment programs stack up.
Income-Driven Repayment Plan
Eligible Loan Types
Monthly Payment Amount
SAVE
Direct Subsidized and Unsubsidized Loans; Direct PLUS Loans (made to students); Direct Consolidation Loans (that do not include parent PLUS loans)
10% of discretionary income
PAYE
Direct Subsidized and Unsubsidized Loans; Direct PLUS Loans (made to students); Direct Consolidation Loans (that do not include parent PLUS loans)
10% of discretionary income but never more than what you would pay under the 10-year Standard Repayment Plan
IBR
Direct Subsidized and Unsubsidized Loans; Subsidized and Unsubsidized Federal Stafford Loans; Direct and FFEL PLUS Loans (made to students); Direct or FFEL Consolidation Loans (that do not include parent PLUS loans)
Either 10% or 15% of discretionary income but never more than what you would pay under the 10-year Standard Repayment Plan
ICR
Direct Subsidized and Unsubsidized Loans; Direct PLUS Loans (made to students); Direct Consolidation Loans
Either 20% of your discretionary income or the amount you would pay on a repayment plan with a fixed payment over 12 years, adjusted according to your income (whichever is lower)
Student Loan Forgiveness Programs
In addition to the loan forgiveness associated with IDR plans, the federal government offers other federal loan forgiveness programs, including Public Service Loan Forgiveness (PSLF), which is for public-sector workers. The PSLF program allows you not to repay the remaining balance on your Direct Loans as long as you’ve made the 120 qualifying monthly payments under an accepted repayment plan and worked for an eligible employer full-time.
There is also a separate forgiveness program just for teachers, as well as one borrowers with permanent disabilities.
Federal Student Loan Consolidation Program
If you have multiple federal student loans, you can consolidate them into a single new loan (called a Direct Consolidation Loan) with new repayment terms. This can simplify the repayment process, since you’ll only have one payment and one loan servicer to keep track of.
Federal loan consolidation also allows some borrowers (such as those with Federal Family Education or Perkins Loans) to access repayment and forgiveness programs that they otherwise are ineligible for.
The federal student loan consolidation program does not lower your interest rate, however. Your new fixed interest rate will be the weighted average of your previous rates, rounded up to the next one-eighth of 1%.
Your new loan term could range from 10 to 30 years, depending on your total student loan balance. If you extend your loan term, it can lower your monthly payments but the total amount of interest you’ll pay will increase.
It’s also important to note that when loans are consolidated, any unpaid interest is added to your principal balance. The combined amount will be your new loan’s principal balance. You’ll then pay interest on the new, higher balance. Depending on how much unpaid interest you have, consolidation can cost you more over the life of your loan.
Recommended: Student Loan Consolidation vs Refinancing
Factors to Evaluate Before Refinancing
Refinancing is the process of taking out a new student loan from a private lender (ideally with better rates and terms) and using it to pay off your existing federal and/or private student loans. Generally, refinancing only makes sense if you can qualify for a lower rate. Here are some things to consider before you explore refinancing your student loans.
Current Interest Rates and Loan Terms
Refinancing can potentially allow you to lower your monthly payment by getting a lower interest rate than what you currently have, extending your loan term, or both. Keep in mind, though, that lengthening your loan term may mean paying more in interest over the life of the loan.
Credit Score Requirements
Not every borrower is eligible for refinancing. To get approved, you typically need a credit score of at least 650. A score in the 700s, however, gives you a much better chance of qualifying.
Your credit score also helps determine your new interest rate. Generally, the better your credit score is, the more competitive your interest rate will be. If you can’t qualify for an attractive refinance on your own, you might want to recruit a cosigner who has excellent credit.
Potential Savings Through Refinancing
One of the main reasons people refinance their existing student loans is because they can find a lower interest rate through a new lender. This can help you save money, potentially thousands over the life of your loan. A lower rate can also help you pay off your loan faster, or lower the amount you pay each month.
While student loan interest rates have been on the rise in the last couple of years, you may still be able to do better if your financial situation has considerably improved since you originally took out your student loans or you have higher-interest federal student loans.
Impact on Loan Forgiveness Options
Refinancing federal loans makes them ineligible for federal forgiveness and protections. If you think you may benefit (or are currently working towards) public service, teacher, IDR, or other federal forgiveness program, it may not be a good idea to refinance your federal student loans. Doing so will bar you from getting your federal loans forgiven.
Refinancing also makes your loans ineligible for government deferment and forbearance programs, which allow you to temporarily postpone or reduce your federal student loan payments. However, many private lenders offer their own deferment and forbearance programs.
💡 Quick Tip: It might be beneficial to look for a refinancing lender that offers extras. SoFi members, for instance, can qualify for rate discounts and have access to career services, financial advisors, networking events, and more — at no extra cost.
The Takeaway
Federal loan programs, including loan consolidation, graduated repayment plans, income-driven repayment plans, and forgiveness programs can make repaying your federal student loans more manageable after you graduate.
If you have higher-interest graduate PLUS loans, Direct Unsubsidized Loans, and/or private loans, however, it can also be worth looking into private student loan refinancing.
Looking to lower your monthly student loan payment? Refinancing may be one way to do it — by extending your loan term, getting a lower interest rate than what you currently have, or both. (Please note that refinancing federal loans makes them ineligible for federal forgiveness and protections. Also, lengthening your loan term may mean paying more in interest over the life of the loan.) SoFi student loan refinancing offers flexible terms that fit your budget.
With SoFi, refinancing is fast, easy, and all online. We offer competitive fixed and variable rates.
FAQ
Does it make sense to refinance student loans?
Refinancing student loans can make sense if you are able to qualify for a lower interest rate through a new lender. This can help you save money, potentially thousands over the life of your loan. A lower rate can also help you pay off your loan faster, or lower the amount you pay each month.
Keep in mind that refinancing federal student loans with a private lender means giving up federal protections and relief programs.
Under what circumstances would you want to consider refinancing a debt?
You might consider refinancing a debt if your financial situation has improved since you originally got the loan and can now qualify for a lower rate. Refinancing also allows you to extend your loan term, which can lower your payments. Keep in mind, however, that a longer term generally means paying more in overall interest.
Which is a downside of refinancing out of federal student loans?
The biggest downside of refinancing your federal student loans is forfeiting federal protections, such as income-driven repayment plans and loan forgiveness options.
Photo credit: iStock/Drazen Zigic
SoFi Student Loan Refinance If you are a federal student loan borrower, you should consider all of your repayment opportunities including the opportunity to refinance your student loan debt at a lower APR or to extend your term to achieve a lower monthly payment. Please note that once you refinance federal student loans you will no longer be eligible for current or future flexible payment options available to federal loan borrowers, including but not limited to income-based repayment plans or extended repayment plans.
SoFi Loan Products SoFi loans are originated by SoFi Bank, N.A., NMLS #696891 (Member FDIC). For additional product-specific legal and licensing information, see SoFi.com/legal. Equal Housing Lender.
Non affiliation: SoFi isn’t affiliated with any of the companies highlighted in this article.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.
Average mortgage rates inched lower yesterday. But all that did was wipe out last Friday’s similarly tiny rise.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might barely budge. However, these early mini-trends often alter direction or speed as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.302%
7.353%
+0.01
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.757%
6.836%
+0.01
30-year fixed FHA
7.064%
7.111%
-0.07
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.888%
8.036%
+0.12
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.199%
7.257%
+0.05
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.663%
6.737%
+0.06
30-year fixed VA
7.292%
7.332%
+0.01
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
This morning’s Financial Times reports, “While the base case remains a reduction in borrowing costs, the options market shows a 20% probability of an increase.” That means most investors think the Federal Reserve will cut general interest rates this year, but they reckon there’s a 20% chance of the central bank actually hiking them. That’s new and scary.
Although the Fed doesn’t directly determine mortgage rates it has a huge influence on the bond market that does. And I very much doubt mortgage rates will fall consistently before the Fed signals that a cut in general interest rates is imminent. And a Fed rate hike is likely to send mortgage rates much higher: maybe back up to 8% or beyond.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes edged down to 4.6% from 4.64%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were rising this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices decreased to $81.59 from $82.06 a barrel. (Good for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices fell to $2,333 from $2,350 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — climbed to 40 from 33 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to be unchanged or close to unchanged. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Today
This morning’s two April purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) will likely be good for mortgage rates. These “flashes” (initial readings and subject to revision) are both from S&P.
Here are this morning’s actual numbers in bold, alongside the prepublication consensus forecasts, according to MarketWatch, together with the March actual figures:
Services PMI — 50.9 actual; 52 expected; 51.7 in March
Manufacturing PMI — 51.1 actual; 52 expected; 51.9 in March
You can see that the PMIs were worse than expected, which is typically good news for mortgage rates.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow’s durable goods orders for March rarely affect mortgage rates. And they’d need to contain some pretty shocking data to do so tomorrow.
Markets are expecting those orders to have risen by 2.6% in March compared to a 1.3% increase in February. They’ll probably need to be significantly higher than 2.% to exert upward pressure on mortgage rates and appreciably lower to push them downward.
The rest of this week
Nothing has changed since yesterday concerning economic reports due on Thursday and Friday. So, I’ll repeat what I wrote yesterday:
We’re due the first reading of gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March quarter on Thursday. And that could have a larger effect than PMIs and durable goods orders, depending on the gap between expectations and actuals.
But Friday’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for March is this week’s star report. That’s the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation. And it could certainly affect mortgage rates, possibly appreciably.
The next meeting of the Fed’s rate-setting committee is scheduled to start on Apr. 30 and last two days. So, the PCE price index will be the last inflation report it sees before making decisions.
And index that shows inflation cooling could change the mood at that meeting. True, it’s vanishingly unlikely that a cut to general interest rates will be unveiled on May 1 no matter what.
But a PCE price index that shows inflation cooling could help the Fed to move forward with cuts earlier than expected, which should cause mortgage rates to fall. Unfortunately, one that suggests inflation remains hot or is getting hotter could send those rates higher.
I’ll brief you more fully on each potentially significant report on the day before it’s published.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Apr. 18 report put that same weekly average at 7.1%, up from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Mar. 19 and the MBA’s on Apr. 18.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.7%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
MBA
6.8%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
WASHINGTON — Inflation and uncertainty surrounding the direction of federal policy on trade, spending and other issues are banks’ top financial stability concerns, the Federal Reserve Board said in a report released Friday.
For its semiannual report on financial stability, the Fed surveyed a range of financial professionals — including broker-dealers, investment fund managers, research and advisory professionals as well as academics — about the top issues facing the financial system. Policy uncertainty emerged as a major new source of anxiety for industry experts — it was cited by 60% of respondents, up from the just 24% of respondents who cited it as a top concern in the Fed’s last survey in October 2023.
Since 2019, the Fed has issued two reports on financial stability per year, usually releasing one in the spring and another in the fall.
Persistent inflation and high interest rates remained the top concern across the board, with 72% of respondents listing it as their primary concern — the same percentage as in the October report. The report indicated that interest rates may remain elevated above current market expectations for an extended period and that persistent inflation could prompt a more stringent monetary policy, causing increased volatility in financial markets and adjustments in asset valuations.
But the rise of policy uncertainty — including unpredictability stemming from fluctuating trade policies, influenced by geopolitical tensions such as the conflict in the Middle East and Russia’s war against Ukraine that has lasted more than two years — was an unexpected source of market disruption for many survey respondents. Respondents also flagged the upcoming U.S. elections in November as a source of stress.
“Further escalation of geopolitical tensions or policy uncertainty could reduce economic activity, boost inflation, and heighten volatility in financial markets,” the report said. “The global financial system could be affected by a pullback from risk-taking, declines in asset prices, and losses for exposed U.S. and foreign businesses and investors.”
Concerns about the credit quality of commercial real estate — which was the No. 2 concern cited in the October report — was cited as a top concern among 56% of the survey’s respondents. But that fell from 72% in the October report. The Fed noted that prices across all sectors of CRE continued to decline in the second half of 2023, and the report makes clear the full impact of CRE price drops have yet to be reflected in the data.
“These transaction-based price measures likely do not yet fully reflect the deterioration in CRE market prices because, rather than realizing losses, many owners wait for more favorable conditions to put their properties on the market,” noted the report. “Capitalization rates at the time of property purchase, which measure the annual income of commercial properties relative to their prices, moved modestly higher but remained at historically low levels, suggesting that prices remain high relative to fundamentals.”
Banking sector instability continued to feature prominently despite the report noting high levels of liquidity and low funding risks in the sector since the October report.
While the Fed’s emergency lending facility, the Bank Term Funding Program, ceased operations on March 11, the report noted the BTFP continues to reduce liquidity pressures for depositories. The report said mostly small institutions with under $10 billion of assets — representing 95% of beneficiaries — benefited from the program.
Florida-based First Federal Bank announced on Thursday that it struck a deal to acquire Watson Mortgage Corp., expanding its mortgage retail lending footprint in the communities in which it operates. The financial details of the deal were not disclosed.
First Federal Bank has 25 branches in the Southeast and operations in the Midwest, including mortgage centers in Jacksonville, Florida; Alpharetta, Georgia; Madison, Wisconsin; and Overland Park, Kansas.
Last year, the community bank originated about $435 million in mortgage volume, per mortgage data platform Modex. Nearly 58% of this total was conventional loans and 55% was purchase loans. As of Thursday, the bank had 155 sponsored loan officers, according to the Nationwide Multistate Licensing System (NMLS).
President and CEO John Medina said in a prepared statement that the First Federal Bank has a mission to provide solutions from a “financially stable institution,” and the acquisition “underscores our commitment“ to the residential mortgage sector.
Under the agreement, First Federal Bank will serve Watson’s customers throughout the Watson Realty footprint and the Watson platform will transition to the First Federal brand“within a few months of closing,“the parties said in a statement.
First Federal Bank has plans to retain the “vast majority“of employees at the acquired lender. Per NMLS, Watson Mortgage had 17 sponsored LOs as of Thursday, and Modex shows that the lender originated about $78 million in mortgage volume last year.
Watson Mortgage Corp. was established in 1994 and is part of Florida-based Watson Realty Corp., a family-owned company since 1965. The lender is being acquired by a bank that has about $3.9 billion in total assets.
Bill Watson, chairman of Watson Realty Corp., said the agreement permits the team to “continue providing mortgage solutions to our customers and serve our teams with valuable mortgage expertise.“
“Watson’s strategic plan for 2024 includes a strong focus on helping customers secure homes in a challenging rate environment,“Watson added.
First Federal Bank has engaged in previous M&A deals. In 2023, it acquired the mortgage division of BNC National Bank. The deal included the bank’s consumer-direct technology platform.
Average mortgage rates rose very slightly yesterday. I’m afraid it’s a sign that Wednesday’s moderate fall wasn’t necessarily the start of much happier times.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today could barely budge. However, these early mini-trends frequently alter direction or speed as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.29%
7.34%
+0.03
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.744%
6.822%
+0.04
30-year fixed FHA
7.129%
7.179%
+0.21
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.682%
7.918%
-0.01
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.15%
7.207%
+0.07
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.607%
6.68%
+0.02
30-year fixed VA
7.28%
7.324%
+0.2
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
I reckon it’s likely to be some months before we begin to see consistently falling mortgage rates. The economy is currently too robust and inflation is too warm for a sustained downward trend. And there are few signs of that changing until the summer or fall — or perhaps even later.
So my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes ticked lower to 4.62 from 4.63%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were mixed this morning. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices decreased to $82.77 from $82.98 a barrel. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices rose to $2,398 from $2,393 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — nudged down to 32 from 35 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to be unchanged or close to unchanged. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Today
There are no economic reports scheduled for release today. And the words of the sole senior Federal Reserve official with a speaking engagement, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, are unlikely to affect markets. His boss, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, laid out the central bank’s position on future cuts to general interest rates as recently as Tuesday.
Of course, mortgage rates can still move on days like today. But they’re generally driven by market sentiment or occasionally by important news that affects the economy.
Next week
Next Monday is much like today: zero economic reports on the schedule. Tuesday’s purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) could produce some movement in mortgage rates. But that’s typically limited and temporary, a description that applies to Wednesday’s durable goods orders data, too.
Things could warm up next Thursday when the first reading of gross domestic product (GDP) for the January-March quarter is due.
And next Friday should bring the March personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. That’s the Federal Reserve’s favorite gauge of inflation. So, it can certainly affect mortgage rates.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Apr. 18 report put that same weekly average at 7.1%, up from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Mar. 19 and the MBA’s on Apr. 18.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.7%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
MBA
6.8%
6.7%
6.6%
6.4%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Wire fraud prevention firm CertifID and big four title firm Old Republic have entered into a strategic agreement to prevent mortgage payoff fraud, according to an announcement on Thursday.
Mortgage payoff fraud occurs when a title company mistakenly sends payoff funds to a fraudulent bank account after receiving wire instructions that appear to be from the mortgage servicer. The instructions, however, are actually from fraudsters.
“Old Republic Title continues to focus on innovation to enable the success of our direct and agency operations,” Carolyn Monroe, the president and CEO of Old Republic National Title Holding Co., said in a statement. “We are excited to leverage the comprehensive approach to fraud prevention that CertifID provides, inclusive of software, insurance, and recovery and support services, to help prevent fraud and create the best experiences for our agents and customers, and all parties involved in real estate transactions.”
Although fewer home sale transactions closed in 2023, fraudsters continued to be active, with the FBI reporting that fraud loss in the real estate sector reached $446 million in 2023.
Data from CertifID shows that mortgage payoff fraud has become the largest source of losses among title firms, with the median loss coming in at $257,000 in 2023. Additionally, a study by the American Land Title Association found that roughly 17% of title companies have sent money to an incorrect account due to fraud, and 49% of those organizations have done so more than once.
In a statement, CertifID CEO Tyler Adams said that he applauds Old Republic for taking the initiative to help reduce the risk of mortgage payoff fraud.
“We look forward to working together to truly solve the issue of payoff fraud seen across the industry,” Adams added.
In 2023, Old Republic’s title segment reported net fee and premium earnings of $2.563 billion, down 33.2% compared to 2022, and a pretax income of $133.5 million, a drop of 56.7%.
Alternative investments, or alts, are assets like cryptocurrency, options, private equity, real estate and art. Alternative investments are typically defined as investments aside from stocks, bonds, mutual funds and other investments that traditionally make up the core of a portfolio.
While the “alternative investments” classification encompasses lots of very different types of investments, most share a few characteristics: Many alternative investments are less regulated by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) than traditional investments, they tend to be more difficult to sell, and they may not have a high correlation with the stock market. That means if the overall market is down, it doesn’t make it more likely for your alternative assets to be down too.
Another commonality is that they tend to carry more risk than traditional investments. All investments should be approached with scrutiny, but alts deserve an extra degree of caution. One guideline is to invest no more than 10% of your overall investment portfolio into higher-risk investments.
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How to buy alternative investments
There are a handful of ways to invest in the alternative investments covered here, but buying alts typically boils down to one of three options: Buying the asset itself, investing in a company that invests in the asset or is involved in its production, or investing in a fund that holds lots of those companies. For example, you can buy raw gold, stock in companies related to gold, or a gold ETF.
If you want to buy alts themselves, it may be trickier than buying traditional assets. While some alts can also be purchased from a brokerage, others, like futures and forex, typically require a special account. Crypto can be found on crypto exchanges, real estate crowdfunding can be accessed through individual platforms, and collectibles are often purchased at auctions or private sales.
If you want to gain exposure to an alt through a stock or fund, you need to have a brokerage account to do so.
7 alternative investments to consider
Here are seven alternative investments that are worth exploring.
1. Derivatives
Derivatives are investments that are linked to an underlying asset, commodity or index. There are several types of derivatives, including futures and forex.
Investing in derivatives can often involve complex strategies. If you’d like to try out some advanced trading strategies, you can practice with paper trading before you risk your real money.
Futures
Futures are derivative contracts that outline an agreement to buy or sell a particular asset at a set date in the future for a particular price. Futures contracts may obligate the buyer to take physical delivery of the asset at the set date, so to avoid having a truck of corn show up on your doorstep, you may have to sell at a significant loss.
Forex
Forex trading is a speculative investment through which you buy and sell different currencies. For instance, if you believe the U.S. dollar will rise and the euro will fall, you could exchange euros for U.S. dollars. Most traditional brokerages don’t offer access to forex, so you’ll need to look into a forex broker if you want to start trading international currencies.
2. Digital assets
Digital assets, such as cryptocurrencies and nonfungible tokens (NFTs), are supported by blockchain technology.
Cryptocurrency
Cryptocurrency is a form of digital currency. There are many different crypto coins, such as Bitcoin or Ethereum. You can use crypto to pay for things, like you would with a regular currency, or you can use it as an investment by buying it in the hope that it will increase in value over time (like pretty much any other investment).
If you’re looking to purchase crypto directly, there are a few ways you can do it. Some online brokerages allow you to purchase crypto through them.
Some people may opt to store their crypto in a more secure fashion than an online exchange: a crypto wallet. Storing your crypto yourself makes you less vulnerable to security breaches, but comes with some risks. Learn more about how to buy cryptocurrency.
If you’re looking to get exposure to the crypto market without directly investing in crypto itself, you can consider crypto stocks. These stocks don’t include actual crypto, but rather companies that are involved in the wider crypto market, such as those that create equipment used to mine cryptocurrencies or operate crypto exchanges.
You can also look into Bitcoin ETFs. These ETFs track the price of Bitcoin by holding a large amount of the currency itself.
NFTs
Nonfungible tokens, or NFTs, let you have a record as being the owner of an original digital file. That file can be a piece of digital art or an item from a video game, and each NFT is unique. NFTs have largely declined in value since 2021 when they were making headlines.
» Learn more about NFTs
3. Precious metals
Unlike many of the investments in this list, precious metals, such as gold and silver, have been considered valuable since humanity’s early days. That’s particularly helpful because it provides a long track record to assess their values. Precious metals can also sometimes function as a hedge against inflation in a well-diversified portfolio.
There are several ways to invest in precious metals. You can buy the metal itself, typically in the form of bullion (think bars or coins) or jewelry. Bullion may be tempting — who doesn’t want a bunch of gold bars or necklaces lying around? But it’s difficult to store and sell. You can also invest in gold stocks or other precious metal stocks, or gold ETFs.
4. Collectibles
Investing in collectibles, such as wine or fine art, comes with many of the difficulties of investing in bullion: It can be difficult to secure and store, and it can be difficult to sell. Unless you’re well-connected in a particular collector’s industry, finding a buyer for your antique sculpture or vintage muscle car when you’re ready to cash in may be challenging.
5. Commodities
Commodities are raw, physical products such as oil, wheat, gold or corn. Investing in commodities may have some overlap with a few of the other categories listed here. For instance, you can invest in commodity futures, or you can purchase precious metals, which are technically commodities. You can also buy commodity stocks or commodity ETFs.
6. Real estate
There are several ways to invest in real estate, including REITs, or real estate investment trusts, utilizing a real estate investing platform or purchasing actual property.
REITs
REITs are similar to mutual funds in that they are companies, but they specifically own, operate or finance income-producing properties, such as apartment complexes that generate rent. REITs must pay out at least 90% of their taxable income to shareholders in the form of dividends, creating a potential revenue stream for investors. As with stocks, you can purchase publicly traded REITs through a brokerage account.
Real estate investing platforms
Real estate crowdfunding investment platforms have made investing in real estate far more accessible for the everyday investor. These platforms combine your money with other investors’ money so you can access private REITs and private property investments that historically have only been available to accredited investors (though some of these platforms are also only open to accredited-investors).
Actual property
If you have the capital, you can invest in actual real estate properties. This option may be attractive to those who can afford the startup costs (such as a down payment and any upgrades) and prefer to invest in something physical. The downsides include the risk of putting so much capital into one property, having to pay someone to manage and maintain the property, or having to do it yourself.
7. Private equity
Private equity is exactly what it sounds like — equity that comes from private investors. Typically, the only way to access private equity is through a private equity firm, and the investments are often only open to accredited investors who can meet a very high minimum investment.
Benefits and risks of alternative investments
Alternative investment pros
Diversification. Diversification helps spread your risk out across different industries, sectors and geographies. If the tech sector is up and the oil industry is down, and you’re invested in both, you can smooth out the highs and lows of each. Alternative investments provide investment diversification, especially because they may have lower correlation to traditional investments.
Potential reward. This is obviously one of the most attractive parts of alternative investments: They have the potential to bring in big financial gains. But in order to realize those large gains, you have to pick the right investment at the right time. And people, even investing professionals, often get it wrong and lose money.
Access. Until recently, alternative investments were only available to accredited investors or those with a high net worth. Now, there are more ways than ever for everyday investors to get access to some of these investments.
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Alternative investment cons
High Risk. Alternative investments almost always carry more risk than traditional investments such as stocks or bonds.
Illiquid. With many types of alternative investments, you may not be able to get your money out right away.
Less regulation. Many alternative investments are less regulated by the SEC than traditional assets.
Storage. Some alternative investments, such as precious metals, crypto, and collectibles, come with the added difficulty of storing them.
Best alternative investment to stocks
The best alternative investment for you will depend on your existing portfolio. For most people, a well-diversified stock-based portfolio can help you build wealth over time. If your portfolio is already in good shape, and you’re looking for something more exciting to supplement with a small percentage, you can start to look at alternative investments’ historical returns in comparison to the standard market.
For example, the average stock market return, as measured by the S&P 500 index, is about 10% per year for the last 30 years. Some years are higher and some years are lower, but over time, S&P 500 index funds have returned about 10%, not accounting for inflation.
Knowing that, you can start to compare that to the performance of alternative investments. Since 1972, on average, the FTSE NAREIT All Equity REITs index has returned an 11.3% total annual return. That’s not to say that REITs always outperform the S&P 500, but it does show over fifty years of strong performance. If you were to add a REIT to your investment portfolio, it would also help diversify your holdings.
Since 1969, gold has had a median average closing price of about $384 per ounce, and in 2024, gold’s average closing price has topped $2,000 per ounce. That sounds great, but gold’s average annual return from the last 30 years was 6.7% — significantly less than either the S&P 500 or REITs. Gold can, however, serve as a hedge against inflation. Every investment has pros and cons. That’s why it’s so important to consider potential alternative investments against your existing portfolio.
The bottom line
Alternative investments can be exciting, and they can help diversify your portfolio, but they also come with particular challenges and risks. If you’re curious about alternative investments, it’s worth doing your homework to see how they might complement your existing investment portfolio. If you don’t already have an investment portfolio composed of more traditional assets, it may be better to focus on building that first.
Residential Construction Fall and Builder Confidence Flattens in Uncertain Rate Environment
While builder confidence in the market for new residential construction improved in March, it remained flat in April and residential construction numbers showed a decline in momentum as well.
Residential construction starts, which had surged in February, gave back all of those gains in March. The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) report that construction began at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.321 million housing units during the month, a decline of 14.7 percent from February’s level of 1.549 million units. Starts were 4.3 percent lower than their level in March 2023.
Single-family starts fell 12.4 percent to an annual rate of 1.022 million and multifamily starts dived 20.8 percent to 290,000 units. The two categories were down 21.2 percent and 43.7 percent respectively year-over-year.
Permits also declined. The annual rate was 4.3 percent lower at 1.458 million units compared to 1.523 million in February. Permits increased 1.5 percent on an annual basis. Single-family authorizations dropped from 1.032 million to 973,000, a 5.7 percent decline. This was still a 17.4 percent improvement from March of last year. Multifamily permits were unchanged at 433,000 units, down 22.1 percent year-over-year.
Analysts polled by Econoday had forecast starts at 1,480 million and permits at 1.510 million, substantially overshooting both numbers.
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) broke a four-month string of gains this month, remaining at the 51 level, unchanged from March, but still above the key breakeven point of 50.
Robert Deitz, NAHB’s chief economist, said the flat reading suggests the potential for demand growth is there, but buyers appear to be waiting until there is more clarity on the direction of rates. “With the markets now adjusting to rates being somewhat higher due to recent inflation readings, we still anticipate the Federal Reserve will announce future rate cuts later this year, and that mortgage rates will moderate in the second half of 2024,” he said.
The HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor” and asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores for each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.
The HMI index charting current sales conditions in April and the index gauging buyer traffic each increased 1 point to 57 and 35, respectively. The component measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell 2 points to 60.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast increased 4 points to 63, the Midwest gained 5 points to 46, the South rose 1 point to 51 and the West registered a 4-point gain to 47.
The April survey also showed that 22 percent of builders cut home prices this month, down from 24 percent in March and 36 percent in December 2023, while the average price reduction held steady at 6 percent for the 10th straight month. Fifty-seven percent of builders used some form of sales incentives. The share was 60 percent in March.
On an unadjusted basis, the Census/HUD report shows housing starts in March are estimated at 110,900 including 87,100 single-family units. The totals in February were 110,100 and 81,700. There were 123,500 permits issued during the month compared to 119,100 in February. The single-family totals rose from 79,400 to 84,300.
Homes were completed during the month at an annual rate of 1.469 million units. This was a decline of 13.5 percent from February and 13.9 percent from the previous March. Single-family completions dropped 10.5 percent and were 8.5 percent lower than a year earlier while multifamily completions were down 19.9 percent.
For the year to date (YTD) housing starts total 318,800, up 1.3 percent from the same period in 2023. Single-family starts have risen 27.1 percent to 239,100 while multifamily starts have fallen by 38.0 percent to 76,400 units.
YTD permits are up 3.8 percent, entirely due to a 24.9 percent increase in single-family permits which helped offset a drop of 25.2 percent in the multifamily sector.
Completions total 347,300 thus far in 2024, an increase of 4.3 percent from 2023. There have been 5.8 percent fewer single-family homes completed but multifamily completions have risen 27.4 percent.
At the end of the reporting period, there were 1.646 million homes under construction, 689,000 of which were single-family homes. in addition, there were 273,000 permits available 141,000 for single-family houses.
Starts dropped by double digits in three of the four major regions and permits also drifted lower.
Starts In the Northeast were down 36.0 percent compared to February and 56.8 percent on an annual basis. Permits dropped 20.8 percent but increased 8.1 percent for the year.
In the Midwest, starts were down 23.0 percent for the month but were 18.0 percent above the March 2023 pace. Permits dropped 14.7 percent from February and 3.4 percent on an annual basis.
The South’s starts fell by 17.8 percent and 11.0 percent from February and from March 2023, respectively. Permits fell 0.6 percent but increased by 0.4 for the year.
The only positive changes were in the West, up 7.1 and 48.1 percent for the month and year. Permitting increased 5.1 percent and 4.1 percent from the two earlier periods.