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Mortgage rate forecast for next week (Jan. 8-12)

Mortgage interest rates inched up this week, following nine straight declines totaling a decrease of 118 basis points (1.18%).

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) rose from 6.61% on Dec. 28 to 6.62% on Jan. 4, according to Freddie Mac.

“Given the expectation of rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, as well as receding inflationary pressures, we expect mortgage rates will continue to drift downward as the year unfolds,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.

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Will mortgage rates go down in January?

Mortgage rates fluctuated significantly in 2023, with the average 30-year fixed rate going as low as 6.09% on Feb. 2 and as high as 7.79% on Oct. 26, according to Freddie Mac.

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The range can be largely attributed to the Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight against inflation, juxtaposed with uncertainty in the banking sector sparked by Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse. However, with duress permeating the financial market and the fallout from U.S. debt ceiling talks, the Fed may continue making hikes to bring interest rates down.

With the economy likely heading into a recession, it’s possible we’ve already seen the peak of this rate cycle. Of course, interest rates are notoriously volatile and could tick back up on any given week.

Experts from CoreLogic, Home Qualified, Realtor.com and others weigh in on whether 30-year mortgage rates will climb, fall, or level off in January.

Expert mortgage rate predictions for January

Craig Berry, branch manager at Acopia Home Loans

Prediction: Rates will moderate

“As inflation is the no. 1 item on the Federal Reserve’s radar right now, the Feds may choose not to lower the federal funds rate until inflation comes down. And, while Fed rate cuts aren’t a must-have in order for mortgage rates to come down, interest rates are affected by the federal funds rate.

The Feds continue to seek a balance between inflation and maximum employment so as not to cause significant damage to the economy which could trigger a recession. Recent momentum has been positive, and as long inflation cooperates, mortgage rates may see a slight decline in January. However, it isn’t likely that we’ll see significant drops to longer-term rates until we get further into 2024.”

Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified

Prediction: Rates will fall

“Rates finally shifted down some in December and stabilized lower. U.S. payrolls came in lower than anticipated, unemployment was up and building of new homes was down. These are good signs that inflation may have reached its peak and could trigger a lowering of rates. I expect the Fed to stay neutral for the time being and possibly through the first quarter of the year with possible cuts coming only if we see a drastic shift in the economy. For January, I believe the average 30-year fixed will land at 7.125% and the 15-year fixed will be 6.75%.”

Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic

Prediction: Rates will fall

“Mortgage rates should continue to decline, albeit very gradually and given there are no surprises with inflation. We should see rates fall below 7% mark.”

Hannah Jones, senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com

Prediction: Rates will fall

“If inflation and employment data continue to show signs of slowing, mortgage rates are likely to ease in January, though at a slower clip than in recent weeks. As incoming data confirms that the economy is indeed cooling, the upward pressure on mortgage rates will continue to let up and buyers will enjoy lower rates than in recent months.

However, if inflation or employment data come in stronger than expected, we could see rates pick up steam once again. Investors expect the Fed to hold steady at the current target rate in next week’s meeting, which would signal the Committee’s confidence in the current policy stance to bring inflation down to the target 2%. As inflation reaches the target level, mortgage rates will continue to drift lower.”

Jess Kennedy, COO at Beeline

Prediction: Rates will fall

“We expect rates to continue to ease as we kick off 2024. You can see the signaling of a rate cut from the Fed in many ways. For example, it is harder to find long-term CDs at the higher interest rates we were seeing 45-60 days ago). Publicly traded companies are also seeing their stock prices move higher on the expectation of rate relief in 2024. All these signs signal rates start to tick down even ahead of an official rate cut.”

Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American

Prediction: Rates will fall

“In light of favorable trends in inflation and labor market data, the Federal Reserve appears to be on a path towards its goals, although achieving its 2% inflation target will take some time. Consequently, the Fed is expected to maintain a restrictive stance, which will keep mortgage rates elevated. However, given slowing inflation and a cooling labor market, and barring any unforeseen developments, modest reductions in mortgage rates are possible in January.”

Rick Sharga, CEO at CJ Patrick Company

Prediction: Rates will fall

“With inflation moving in the right direction, wage growth slowing, and the jobs market softening a bit, it seems likely that the Federal Reserve has finished rate hikes for this cycle. That, coupled with weakening bond yields, should create an environment where mortgage rates can start a gradual, but steady decline throughout 2024. January rates for 30-year fixed-rate loans will probably straddle 7% — ranging from 7.1% to about 6.9% as the market finds its footing to begin the year.”

Mortgage interest rates forecast next 90 days

As inflation ran rampant in 2022, the Federal Reserve took action to bring it down and that led to the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage spiking in 2023.

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With inflation gradually cooling, the Fed adjusted its policies with smaller and skipped hikes. Additionally, the economy showing signs of slowing has many experts believing mortgage interest rates will gradually descend in 2024.

Of course, rates could rise on any given week or if another global event causes widespread uncertainty in the economy.

Mortgage rate predictions for 2024

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.62%% as of Jan. 4, according to Freddie Mac. All five major housing authorities we looked at project 2024’s first quarter average to finish above that.

The National Association of Home Builders sits at the low end of the group, predicting the average 30-year fixed interest rate to settle at 7.04% for Q1. Meanwhile, Fannie Mae had the highest forecast of 7.6%.

Housing Authority 30-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast (Q1 2024)
National Association of Home Builders 6.77%
Wells Fargo 6.85%
Fannie Mae 7.00%
Mortgage Bankers Association 7.00%
National Association of Realtors 7.50%
Average Prediction 7.02%

Mortgage rates came down for the ninth consecutive week.

The average 30-year fixed rate increased from 6.61% on Dec. 28 to 6.62% on Jan. 4 The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate fell, going from 5.93% to 5.89%.

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Month Average 30-Year Fixed Rate
December 2022 6.36%
January 2023 6.27%
February 2023 6.26%
March 2023 6.54%
April 2023 6.34%
May 2023 6.43%
June 2023 6.71%
July 2023 6.84%
August 2023 7.07%
September 2023 7.20%
October 2023 7.62%
November 2023 7.44%
December 2023 6.82%

Source: Freddie Mac

After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory into 2024. Whatever happens, interest rates are still below historical averages.

Dating back to April 1971, the fixed 30-year interest rate averaged around 7.8%, according to Freddie Mac. So if you haven’t locked a rate yet, don’t lose too much sleep over it. You can still get a good deal, historically speaking — especially if you’re a borrower with strong credit.

Just make sure you shop around to find the best lender and lowest rate for your unique situation.

Many mortgage shoppers don’t realize there are different types of rates in today’s mortgage market. But this knowledge can help home buyers and refinancing households find the best value for their situation.

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Which mortgage loan is best?

The best mortgage for you depends on your financial situation and your goals.

For instance, if you want to buy a high-priced home and you have great credit, a jumbo loan is your best bet. Jumbo mortgages allow loan amounts above conforming loan limits, which max out at $ in most parts of the U.S.

On the other hand, if you’re a veteran or service member, a VA loan is almost always the right choice. VA loans are backed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. They provide ultra-low rates and never charge private mortgage insurance (PMI). But you need an eligible service history to qualify.

Conforming loans and FHA loans (those backed by the Federal Housing Administration) are great low-down-payment options.

Conforming loans allow as little as 3% down with FICO scores starting at 620. FHA loans are even more lenient about credit; home buyers can often qualify with a score of 580 or higher, and a less-than-perfect credit history might not disqualify you.

Finally, consider a USDA loan if you want to buy or refinance real estate in a rural area. USDA loans have below-market rates — similar to VA — and reduced mortgage insurance costs. The catch? You need to live in a ‘rural’ area and have moderate or low income to be USDA-eligible.

Mortgage rate strategies for January 2024

Mortgage rates displayed their famous volatility in 2023. Uncertainty in the banking sector led to downtrends, but ongoing inflation battles, Fed hikes and a hot job market drove growth.

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At its September and November meetings, the central bank held off on a rate hike, preferring to see if the economy would keep cooling organically. In December, the FOMC skipped a hike and projected cuts for 2024. As always, the committee said it would adjust its policies as necessary — which could mean additional hikes or possibly none at all.

Here are just a few strategies to keep in mind if you’re mortgage shopping in the coming months.

Be ready to move quickly

Indecision can lead to failure or missed opportunities. That holds true in home buying as well.

Although the housing market is becoming more balanced than the recent past, it still favors sellers. Prospective borrowers should take the lessons learned from the last few years and apply them now even though conditions are less extreme.

“Taking too long to decide to make an offer can lead to paying more for the home at best and at worst to losing out on it entirely. Buyers should get pre-approved (not pre-qualified) for their mortgage, so that the seller has some certainty about the deal closing. And be ready to close quickly — a long escrow period will put you at a disadvantage.

And it’s definitely not a bad idea to work with a real estate agent who has access to “coming soon” properties, which can give a buyer a little bit of a head start competing for the limited number of homes available,” said Rick Sharga.

Buyer demand is lower than a typical year, but the market usually heats up in spring and summer. Being decisive (and prepared) should only play to your advantage.

Shopping around isn’t only for the holidays

Since interest rates can vary drastically from day to day and from lender to lender, failing to shop around likely leads to money lost.

Lenders charge different rates for different levels of credit scores. And while there are ways to negotiate a lower mortgage rate, the easiest is to get multiple quotes from multiple lenders and leverage them against each other.

“For potential home buyers, it’s important to get quotes from multiple lenders for a mortgage, as rates can vary dramatically, especially during such a volatile period,” said Odeta Kushi.

As the mortgage market slows due to lessened demand, lenders will be more eager for business. While missing out on the rock-bottom rates of 2020 and 2021 may sting, there’s always a way to use the market to your advantage.

How to shop for interest rates

Rate shopping doesn’t just mean looking at the lowest rates advertised online because those aren’t available to everyone. Typically, those are offered to borrowers with great credit who can put a down payment of 20% or more.

The rate lenders actually offer depends on:

  • Your credit score and credit history
  • Your personal finances
  • Your down payment (if buying a home)
  • Your home equity (if refinancing)
  • Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV)
  • Your debt-to-income ratio (DTI)

To figure out what rate a lender can offer you based on those factors, you have to fill out a loan application. Lenders will check your credit and verify your income and debts, then give you a ‘real’ rate quote based on your financial situation.

You should get three to five of these quotes at a minimum, then compare them to find the best offer. Look for the lowest rate, but also pay attention to your annual percentage rate (APR), estimated closing costs, and ‘discount points’ — extra fees charged upfront to lower your rate.

This might sound like a lot of work. But you can shop for mortgage rates in under a day if you put your mind to it. And shaving just a few basis points off your rate can save you thousands.

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Mortgage interest rate FAQ

What are current mortgage rates?

Current mortgage rates are averaging 6.62% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan and 5.89% for a 15-year fixed-rate loan, according to Freddie Mac’s latest weekly rate survey. Your individual rate could be higher or lower than the average depending on your credit score, down payment, and the lender you choose to work with, among other factors.

Will mortgage rates go down next week?

Mortgage rates could decrease next week (Jan. 8-12, 2024) if the mortgage market takes a cautious approach to a possible recession. However, rates could rise if lenders account for the Federal Reserve taking measures to counteract inflation or if a global event brings economic uncertainty.

Will mortgage interest rates go down in 2024?

If inflation continues to dissipate and the economy cools or goes into a recession, it’s likely mortgage rates will decrease in 2024. Although, it’s important to remember that interest rates are notoriously volatile and are driven by many factors, so they can rise during any given week.

Will mortgage interest rates go up in 2024?

Mortgage rates may continue to rise in 2024. High inflation, a strong housing market, and policy changes by the Federal Reserve have all pushed rates higher in 2022 and 2023. However, if the U.S. does indeed enter a recession, mortgage rates could come down.

What is the lowest mortgage rate right now? 

Freddie Mac is now citing average 30-year rates in the 7% range. If you can find a rate in the 5s or 6s, you’re in a very good position. Remember that rates vary a lot by borrower. Those with perfect credit and large down payments may get below-average interest rates, while poor-credit borrowers and those with non-QM loans could see much higher rates. You’ll need to get pre-approved for a mortgage to know your exact rate.

Will there be a housing crash? 

For the most part, industry experts do not expect the housing market to crash in 2023. Yes, home prices are over-inflated. But many of the risk factors that led to the 2008 crash are not present in today’s market. Low inventory and massive buyer demand should keep the market propped up next year. Plus, mortgage lending practices are much safer than they used to be. That means there’s not a subprime mortgage crisis waiting in the wings.

What is the lowest mortgage rate ever?

At the time of this writing, the lowest 30-year mortgage rate ever was 2.65%. That’s according to Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the most widely used benchmark for current mortgage interest rates.

Should I lock my rate now or wait?

Locking your rate is a personal decision. You should do what’s right for your situation rather than trying to time the market. If you’re buying a home, the right time to lock a rate is after you’ve secured a purchase agreement and shopped for your best mortgage deal. If you’re refinancing, you should make sure you compare offers from at least three to five lenders before locking a rate. That said, rates are rising. So the sooner you can lock in today’s market, the better.

Is now a good time to refinance? 

That depends on your situation. It’s a good time to refinance if your current mortgage rate is above market rates and you could lower your monthly mortgage payment. It might also be good to refinance if you can switch from an adjustable-rate mortgage to a low fixed-rate mortgage; refinance to get rid of FHA mortgage insurance; or switch to a short-term 10- or 15-year mortgage to pay off your loan early.

Is it worth refinancing for 1 percent? 

It’s often worth refinancing for 1 percentage point, as this can yield significant savings on your mortgage payments and total interest payments. Just make sure your refinance savings justify your closing costs. You can use a mortgage calculator or speak with a loan officer to crunch the numbers.

How do I shop for mortgage rates? 

Start by choosing a list of three to five mortgage lenders that you’re interested in. Look for lenders with low advertised rates, great customer service scores, and recommendations from friends, family, or a real estate agent. Then get pre-approved by those lenders to see what rates and fees they can offer you. Compare your offers (Loan Estimates) to find the best overall deal for the loan type you want.

What are today’s mortgage rates?

Mortgage rates are rising, but borrowers can almost always find a better deal by shopping around. Connect with a mortgage lender to find out exactly what rate you qualify for.

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1Today’s mortgage rates are based on a daily survey of select lending partners of The Mortgage Reports. Interest rates shown here assume a credit score of 740. See our full loan assumptions here.

Selected sources:

  • https://www.blackknightinc.com/category/press-releases
  • https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
  • http://www.freddiemac.com/research/datasets/refinance-stats/index.page

Source: themortgagereports.com

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Many people mistakenly believe they can’t afford to buy a home because they don’t really know what their options are. Fortunately, home loans are not one-size-fits-all. There are various mortgages available to suit your budget and preferences.

So, before you start visiting open houses, take some time to familiarize yourself with the different home loans that are available. Going into the home buying process informed could help you save a lot of money on your down payment, interest, and fees.

The 8 Types of Mortgage Loans Available

Understanding the different types of mortgage loans will help you choose the option that’s best suited for you. Let’s look at a brief overview of the eight types of mortgages available in 2024.

1. Conventional Loans

A conventional loan is a mortgage that’s not issued by the federal government. There are two different types of conventional mortgages you can choose from: conforming and non-conforming loans.

A conforming loan falls within the guidelines laid out by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. You’ll take out a conforming loan through a private lender like a bank, credit union, or mortgage company. Since the government doesn’t guarantee the loan, conventional mortgages typically come with more stringent lending requirements.

According to the CFPB, the maximum loan amount for a conventional loan is $484,350. However, it may be as high as $726,525 in counties with a high cost of living. You’ll have to take out private mortgage insurance (PMI) if you don’t have a 20% down payment.

Conventional loans are fixed-rate mortgages, which means your monthly mortgage payment remains the same throughout the entire life of the mortgage loan. The terms typically range from 10 to 30 years:

  • 30-year fixed-rate mortgage
  • 20-year fixed-rate mortgage
  • 15-year fixed-rate mortgage
  • 10-year fixed rate mortgage

Pros:

  • It can be used to purchase a primary home or an investment property
  • Tends to cost less than other types of loans
  • You can cancel your private mortgage insurance (PMI) once you reach 20% equity in your home

Cons:

  • Must have a minimum FICO score of 620 or higher
  • Harder to qualify for than government-backed loans
  • You’ll need to have a low debt-to-income ratio to qualify

2. Conventional 97 Mortgage

A conventional 97 mortgage is similar to a conventional loan in that it’s widely available to various borrowers. The main difference is that with this type of home loan, you only have to pay a 3% down payment.

The program is available for first-time and repeat home buyers. However, it must be your primary place of residence, and the maximum loan amount is $510,400.

Pros:

  • Widely available to most borrowers
  • Only requires a 3% down payment
  • Available for first-time and repeat homebuyers

Cons:

  • Cannot be used to purchase investment properties
  • The maximum loan amount is $510,400
  • Requires a minimum FICO score of 660 or higher

3. FHA Loans

FHA loans are backed by the Federal Housing Administration and are a popular option for first-time home buyers. To qualify, you need to have a 3.5% down payment and a minimum credit score of 580.

If you have a credit score of 500 or higher, you can qualify for an FHA loan with a 10% down payment. These flexible requirements make FHA loans a suitable option for borrowers with bad credit.

To qualify for an FHA home loan, you must have a debt-to-income ratio of 43% or less. These loans can’t be used to purchase investment properties, and your home must meet the FHA’s lending limits.

These limits vary by state, so you’ll need to check the FHA’s website to see what the guidelines are for your area.

Pros:

  • Loans come with low down payment options
  • A viable option for borrowers with bad credit
  • Available for first-time and repeat homeowners

Cons:

  • Loans can’t be taken out for investment properties
  • If your credit score is below 580, a 10% down payment is required
  • You must have a debt-to-income ratio below 43%
  • Mandatory mortgage insurance premiums

4. FHA 203(k) Rehab Loans

An FHA 203(k) rehab loan is sometimes referred to as a renovation loan. It allows home buyers to finance the purchase of their home and any necessary renovations with a single loan.

Many people purchase older homes to fix them up. Instead of taking out a mortgage and then applying for a home renovation loan, you can accomplish both within a single mortgage.

A rehab loan is similar to an FHA loan in that you’ll need a 3.5% down payment. However, the credit requirements are stricter, and you’ll need a minimum credit score of 640 to qualify.

Pros:

  • Allows you to buy a home and finance the remodel within one mortgage
  • Requires a minimum 3.5% down payment
  • Easier to qualify since the FHA backs your loan

Cons:

  • Credit requirements are more stringent than typical FHA loans
  • You must hire approved contractors and cannot DIY the renovations
  • The closing process takes longer than other types of mortgages

5. VA Loans

The Department of Veteran Affairs guarantees VA loans. These loans are designed to make it easier for veterans and service members to qualify for affordable mortgages.

One of the biggest advantages of taking out a VA loan is that it doesn’t require a down payment or mortgage insurance premium (MIP). And there are no listed credit requirements, though the lender can set their own minimum credit requirements. VA loans typically come with a lower interest rate than FHA and conventional loans.

To qualify for a VA loan, you must either be active duty military, a veteran or honorably discharged. You’ll need to apply for your mortgage through an approved VA lender.

Pros:

  • No down payment required
  • No PMI required
  • Flexible credit requirements

Cons:

  • Must be a veteran to qualify
  • Some sellers will not want to deal with a VA loan

6. USDA Loans

A USDA loan is a type of mortgage that’s available for rural and suburban home buyers. It’s a viable option for borrowers with lower credit scores that are having a hard time qualifying for a traditional mortgage.

USDA loans are backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and they help low-income borrowers find housing in rural areas. USDA loans do not require a down payment, but you will need a minimum credit score of 640 to qualify.

You will need to meet the USDA’s eligibility requirements to qualify for the loan. But according to the department’s property eligibility map, over 95% of the U.S. is eligible.

Pros:

  • No down payment required
  • A practical option for low-income borrowers
  • Available to first-time and repeat home buyers

Cons:

  • A minimum credit score of 640 is required
  • Housing is limited to rural and suburban areas

7. Jumbo Loans

A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the financing guidelines laid out by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. These loans are unable to be purchased or guaranteed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

A jumbo mortgage is financing for luxury homes in competitive real estate markets, and the limits vary by state. In 2024, the FHFA raised the limits for a one-unit property to $766,550, increasing from $726,200 in 2023. In certain high-cost areas, the limits for jumbo loans vary, reaching up to $1,149,825. These jumbo loans are for mortgages that exceed the set limits in their respective counties.

If you’re hoping to buy a home that costs more than $1 million, you’ll need to take out a super jumbo loan. These loans provide up to $3 million to purchase your home. Both jumbo and super jumbo mortgages can be difficult to qualify for and require excellent credit.

Pros:

  • These loans make it possible to purchase large homes in expensive areas
  • Typically comes with flexible loan terms

Cons:

  • Jumbo loans and super jumbo loans come with higher interest rates
  • You’ll need a good credit history to qualify

8. Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs)

Unlike a fixed-rate mortgage, where the interest rate is set for the life of the loan, an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) comes with interest rates that fluctuate. Your interest rate depends on the current market conditions.

When you first take out an ARM, you will typically start with a fixed rate for a set period of time. Once that introductory period is up, your interest rate will adjust on a monthly or annual basis.

An ARM can be a suitable option for some borrowers because your interest rate will likely be low for the first couple of years you own the home. But you need to be comfortable with a certain level of risk.

And if you choose to go this route, you should look for an ARM that caps the amount of interest you pay. That way, you won’t find yourself unable to afford your monthly payments when the interest rates reset.

4 Types of ARMs

There are 4 different types of adjustable-rate mortgages typically offered:

  • One Year ARM – The one-year adjustable-rate mortgage interest rate changes every year on the anniversary of the loan.
  • 10/1 ARM – The 10/1 ARM has an initial fixed interest rate for the first ten years of the mortgage. After 10 years is up, the rate then adjusts each year for the remainder of the mortgage.
  • 5/5 and 5/1 ARMs – ARMs that have an initial fixed rate for the first five years of the mortgage. After 5 years is up, for the 5/5 ARM, the interest rate changes every 5 years. For the 5/1 ARM, the interest changes every year.
  • 3/3 and 3/1 ARMs – Similar to the 5/5 and 5/1 ARMs, except the initial fixed-rate changes after 3 years. For the 3/3 ARM, the interest rate changes every 3 years and for the 3/1 ARM, it changes every year.

Pros:

  • Interest rates will likely be low in the beginning.
  • If you pay the loan off quickly, you could pay a lot less money in interest.

Cons:

  • Your monthly mortgage payments will fluctuate.
  • Many borrowers have gotten into financial trouble after taking out an ARM.

Choosing the Right Home Loan

When it comes to choosing a home loan, you need to consider a few key factors. First, you’ll want to think about the type of loan that is best suited to your needs.

Fixed-rate mortgages offer stability and predictability, while adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) can be a viable option for those who expect their income to increase significantly over time. You’ll also want to consider your budget and how much you can afford to borrow, as well as the size of your down payment and the length of the loan term.

It’s also crucial to shop around and compare offers from multiple mortgage lenders. While it’s tempting to go with the first lender you find, it pays to do your homework and see what other options are available.

This can help you get a better rate and more favorable terms on your loan. It’s a good idea to get quotes from at least three different lenders, and to consider both traditional banks and online lenders.

Tips for Getting the Best Rates and Terms

One of the most effective strategies is to improve your credit score. Lenders look closely at credit scores when deciding whether to approve a loan. Those with higher scores are typically offered better terms. You can improve your credit score by paying your bills on time, reducing your debt, and correcting any errors on your credit report.

Another tip is to make a larger down payment, which can help you secure a lower interest rate and reduce the size of your monthly payments. Finally, consider working with a mortgage broker, who can help you shop around and find the best deal.

Bottom Line

As you can see, there are many home loans for you to choose from. The type of mortgage that’s best for you will depend on your current income and financial situation.

If you’re not sure where to start, consider working with a qualified loan officer. They can assess your situation and recommend the option that will be best for you.

Source: crediful.com

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Mortgage rates declined significantly over the past week, marking the eighth straight week of falling interest rates. 

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.61% for the week ending December 28, 2023, according to data from Freddie Mac. This represents a decrease of -0.06% from a week ago.

The 15-year fixed rate mortgage stands at 5.93%. That’s 0.02% lower than a week prior. At that rate, you’ll pay $840 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. 

The rate you’ll actually receive will vary based on the price of the home you’re buying, your credit history, and the size of the down payment you’re making. You can compare the offers below to find your best rate.

High interest rates are sticking around as central banks around the world, including the Fed, battle stubbornly high inflation with a series of aggressive interest rate hikes. These efforts to rein in prices have also slowed global economic growth and fueled recession fears. 

Geopolitical tensions stemming from the ongoing war in Ukraine and conflict in the Middle East have further clouded the economic outlook. 

As the Fed asserts that more rate hikes are likely needed to tame inflation, analysts expect mortgage rates will continue trending upward in the near term. This could place even more affordability pressure on the housing market, especially impacting first-time homebuyers.

Why shop around for mortgage rates?

Getting the lowest mortgage rate possible can save you tens of thousands of dollars over the lifetime of your home loan. With rates on the rise in 2023, it’s more important than ever to understand the factors impacting mortgage rates, strategically shop for the best deal, and meet lenders’ requirements to qualify for the lowest rate. 

This guide will cover everything you need to know about today’s mortgage rates, from how they’re determined to where experts expect them to go in the months ahead.

What impacts mortgage rates

Mortgage rates tend to follow the direction of long-term government bond yields, especially the yield on 10-year Treasury notes. Here are some of the key factors that can influence fluctuations in these yields and mortgage rates:

  • Federal Reserve policy: When the Fed raises its benchmark federal funds rate, it often leads to higher borrowing costs across the economy, including mortgage rates. The Fed began aggressively hiking rates in 2022 to combat high inflation, causing mortgage rates to soar. Further Fed rate hikes are expected through 2023.
  • Economic growth and inflation: Strong economic growth and rising inflation generally lead to higher mortgage rates, while slower growth and disinflation place downward pressure on rates.
  • Geopolitical events: Global conflict or political turmoil often spur investors to move money into safe haven assets like Treasury bonds, lowering yields and mortgage rates. 
  • Investor demand: Strong demand for mortgage-backed securities from investors leads to lower mortgage rates. When demand falls, rates tend to rise.
  • Employment trends: A strong job market can fuel economic growth and push rates higher. Conversely, weak hiring data or increased unemployment tend to cause lower yields and rates.
  • Housing market trends: When housing demand is high, rates tend to rise as lenders face increased demand for mortgages. But lower demand for homes often correlates with declining mortgage rates.

Tips for finding the lowest mortgage rate

When shopping for a home loan, following these tips can help ensure you lock in the lowest possible mortgage rate:

  • Check rates from multiple lenders: Rates vary by lender, so comparing quotes from several lenders ensures you don’t overpay. Online rate comparison sites can give you a quick overview of prevailing rates.
  • Improve your credit score: Work on raising your credit score to at least 740, which will qualify you for the best mortgage terms. Pay down debts, correct any errors on your credit reports, and avoid taking on new debt before applying for a mortgage.
  • Lower your debt-to-income ratio: Lenders look closely at your existing debts in relation to your income. Paying down credit cards and other debts before applying for a mortgage can help lower your DTI and qualify for better rates.
  • Make a sizable down payment: Down payments of 20% or more of the home’s purchase price result in the best mortgage rates and eliminate the need to pay private mortgage insurance.
  • Compare quotes for 15-year and 30-year terms: In general, 15-year mortgage rates are lower than those on 30-year mortgages. But the higher monthly payment on a 15-year loan may not fit your budget.
  • Lock in your rate: Rates fluctuate daily. Once you find the rate you want, lock it in by completing most of the mortgage application paperwork. This protects you if rates rise further before closing.

Minimum requirements for common mortgage types

Mortgage lenders weigh many factors when reviewing applications, but most have basic requirements borrowers must meet to qualify for certain loans. Here are typical minimum standards for popular mortgage types.

Mortgage rates over the past three years

Mortgage rates have seen significant fluctuations over the past few years:

  • 2020: Historic lows due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell below 3% by the end of 2020. 
  • 2021: Rates remained very low early in 2021, then began to rise in the spring. By December 2021, rates returned to pre-pandemic levels around 3.5%.
  • 2022: The Fed’s rate hikes and inflation drove mortgage rates dramatically higher throughout 2022. Rates soared above 7% in late 2022 from around 3% at the beginning of the year.
  • 2023: Rates are projected to remain elevated in 2023 compared to the past decade. Further Fed rate hikes could push averages above 8%.

The chart below shows average rates for the 30-year and 15-year fixed rate mortgages over the past three years.

The takeaway is that mortgage rates shift constantly in response to economic or political factors. Staying informed and timing your purchase to lock in a lower rate can make a huge difference in how much home you can afford. Casting a wide net when shopping for lenders pretty much guarantees you’ll secure the most competitive rate on your loan.

Methodology

Mortgage rate data comes from Freddie Mac, a government-sponsored leader in the housing industry that tracks average mortgage rates. We considered average rates for both the 30-year fixed rate mortgage and 15-year fixed rate mortgage. Freddie Mac rates exclude additional fees and points. 

Average rates are reported weekly on Thursdays and updated accordingly.

This article is not intended to be financial advice. Before making significant financial decisions, you can review your options with a financial advisor or credit counselor.

Source: qz.com

Apache is functioning normally

Lower

Mortgage rates dropped again this week, according to Bankrate’s national survey.

The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages plummeted to 6.88 percent this week, down from 7.21 percent the previous week, according to Bankrate’s weekly national survey of large lenders.

The average rate on 30-year home loans topped 8 percent as recently as October. The sharp drop in mortgage rates came after the Federal Reserve said last week that it expects three rate cuts in 2024. The Fed’s long-awaited pivot was spurred by a number of factors, including a slowing job market and signs that the central bank’s ongoing war on inflation is working.

Meanwhile, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds, an informal benchmark for 30-year mortgage rates, have dropped from 5 percent to less than 4 percent in recent weeks.

The Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, but it plays a pivotal role. The central bank sets policy that affects the cost of home loans. At the conclusion of its latest meeting on Dec. 13, the Federal Open Markets Committee decided to leave rates unchanged. Now, economists say, it appears that the central bank is done raising rates.

“Slower inflation and financial markets anticipating the potential end of the Fed’s hiking cycle are both behind the recent decline in rates,” says Joel Kan, deputy chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The sharp drop in mortgage rates eases the housing affordability squeeze. It also bodes well for a housing market that has been sluggish since 2022. “These lower rates will bring both active buyers and sellers into the market, eager to get out ahead of the traditionally busier spring market,” says Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, a listing service in the mid-Atlantic region.

What happened to mortgage rates this week

The 30-year fixed mortgages in this week’s survey had an average total of 0.32 discount and origination points. (Discount points are a way for borrowers to reduce the mortgage rate, while origination points are fees a lender charges to create, review and process your loan.)

Over the past 52 weeks, the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.99 percent. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.63 percent. Four weeks ago, that rate was 7.66 percent. The 30-year fixed-rate average for this week is 0.61 percentage points higher than the 52-week low of 6.27 percent.

As for other types of loans:

How mortgage rates affect home affordability

The national median family income for 2023 is $96,300, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the median price of an existing home sold in November 2023 was $387,600, according to the National Association of Realtors. Based on a 20 percent down payment and a mortgage rate of 6.88 percent, the monthly payment of $2,038 amounts to 25 percent of the typical family’s monthly income.

The sharp rise in mortgage rates over the past two years has squeezed affordability and sparked a slowdown in home sales. First-time buyers are especially challenged by this market. Home prices haven’t fallen significantly, and values are unlikely to decline, given the shortage of homes for sale.

“Higher mortgage rates have a dual impact on the housing market: reducing affordability for buyers and strengthening the rate lock-in for sellers,” says Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American. “The combination of reduced affordability and increased strength of the rate lock-in effect is likely to continue to suppress home sales because you can’t buy what’s not for sale, even if you can afford it.”

Reflecting the affordability squeeze, the median household income for homebuyers jumped to $107,000 in 2023 from $88,000 last year, according to the National Association of Realtors’ 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers.

Will mortgage rates go down?

Economists expected to see mortgage rates decrease by the end of 2023, but the strength of the U.S. economy has thrown a wrinkle into those predictions. Now, though, things finally seem to be cooling, especially 10-year Treasury yields.

Mortgage rates are also chained to inflation, a metric the Fed has been moving to control. At its September and November meetings, the central bank opted to keep rates unchanged. While the Fed doesn’t directly set fixed mortgage rates, it does set the tone of the interest-rate environment — and as the central bank has boosted its policy rate from zero in early 2022 to a range of 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent now, mortgage rates have followed suit.

“There is room for mortgage rates to fall further,” Sturtevant says. “The gap between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is historically around 180 basis points. While the gap has narrowed somewhat, the 30-year mortgage rate remains 280 basis points higher than the bond yield.”

Learn more about where rates could be headed in our December 2023 mortgage rate forecast.

  • Methodology

    The Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders is conducted weekly. To conduct the National Average survey, Bankrate obtains rate information from the 10 largest banks and thrifts in 10 large U.S. markets. In the Bankrate.com national survey, our Market Analysis team gathers rates and/or yields on banking deposits, loans and mortgages. We’ve conducted this survey in the same manner for more than 30 years, and because it’s consistently done the way it is, it gives an accurate national apples-to-apples comparison. Our rates differ from other national surveys, in particular Freddie Mac’s weekly published rates. Each week Freddie Mac surveys lenders on the rates and points based on first-lien prime conventional conforming home purchase mortgages with a loan-to-value of 80 percent. “Lenders surveyed each week are a mix of lender types — thrifts, credit unions, commercial banks and mortgage lending companies — is roughly proportional to the level of mortgage business that each type commands nationwide,” according to Freddie Mac.

Source: finance.yahoo.com

Apache is functioning normally

Mortgage rates dropped again this week, according to Bankrate’s national survey.

The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages plummeted to 6.88% this week, down from 7.21% the previous week, according to Bankrate’s weekly national survey of large lenders.

The average rate on 30-year home loans topped 8% as recently as October. The sharp drop in mortgage rates came after the Federal Reserve said last week that it expects three rate cuts in 2024. The Fed’s long-awaited pivot was spurred by a number of factors, including a slowing job market and signs that the central bank’s ongoing war on inflation is working.

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Meanwhile, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds, an informal benchmark for 30-year mortgage rates, have dropped from 5% to less than 4% in recent weeks.

The Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, but it plays a pivotal role. The central bank sets policy that affects the cost of home loans. At the conclusion of its latest meeting on Dec. 13, the Federal Open Markets Committee decided to leave rates unchanged. Now, economists say, it appears that the central bank is done raising rates.

“Slower inflation and financial markets anticipating the potential end of the Fed’s hiking cycle are both behind the recent decline in rates,” says Joel Kan, deputy chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The sharp drop in mortgage rates eases the housing affordability squeeze. It also bodes well for a housing market that has been sluggish since 2022. “These lower rates will bring both active buyers and sellers into the market, eager to get out ahead of the traditionally busier spring market,” says Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, a listing service in the mid-Atlantic region.

What happened to mortgage rates this week

The 30-year fixed mortgages in this week’s survey had an average total of 0.32 discount and origination points. (Discount points are a way for borrowers to reduce the mortgage rate, while origination points are fees a lender charges to create, review and process your loan.)

Over the past 52 weeks, the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.99%. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.63%. Four weeks ago, that rate was 7.66%. The 30-year fixed-rate average for this week is 0.61 percentage points higher than the 52-week low of 6.27%.

As for other types of loans:

—The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.21%, down from 6.57% from a week ago.

—The 5/6 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) was 6.95%, down from 7.1% a week ago.

—The 30-year fixed-rate jumbo mortgage was 6.93%, down from 7.19% a week ago.

How mortgage rates affect home affordability

The national median family income for 2023 is $96,300, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the median price of an existing home sold in November 2023 was $387,600, according to the National Association of Realtors. Based on a 20% down payment and a mortgage rate of 6.88%, the monthly payment of $2,038 amounts to 25% of the typical family’s monthly income.

The sharp rise in mortgage rates over the past two years has squeezed affordability and sparked a slowdown in home sales. First-time buyers are especially challenged by this market. Home prices haven’t fallen significantly, and values are unlikely to decline, given the shortage of homes for sale.

“Higher mortgage rates have a dual impact on the housing market: reducing affordability for buyers and strengthening the rate lock-in for sellers,” says Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American. “The combination of reduced affordability and increased strength of the rate lock-in effect is likely to continue to suppress home sales because you can’t buy what’s not for sale, even if you can afford it.”

Reflecting the affordability squeeze, the median household income for homebuyers jumped to $107,000 in 2023 from $88,000 last year, according to the National Association of Realtors’ 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers.

Will mortgage rates go down?

Economists expected to see mortgage rates decrease by the end of 2023, but the strength of the U.S. economy has thrown a wrinkle into those predictions. Now, though, things finally seem to be cooling, especially 10-year Treasury yields.

Mortgage rates are also chained to inflation, a metric the Fed has been moving to control. At its September and November meetings, the central bank opted to keep rates unchanged. While the Fed doesn’t directly set fixed mortgage rates, it does set the tone of the interest-rate environment — and as the central bank has boosted its policy rate from zero in early 2022 to a range of 5.25% to 5.5% now, mortgage rates have followed suit.

“There is room for mortgage rates to fall further,” Sturtevant says. “The gap between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is historically around 180 basis points. While the gap has narrowed somewhat, the 30-year mortgage rate remains 280 basis points higher than the bond yield.”

Methodology

The Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders is conducted weekly. To conduct the National Average survey, Bankrate obtains rate information from the 10 largest banks and thrifts in 10 large U.S. markets. In the Bankrate.com national survey, our Market Analysis team gathers rates and/or yields on banking deposits, loans and mortgages. We’ve conducted this survey in the same manner for more than 30 years, and because it’s consistently done the way it is, it gives an accurate national apples-to-apples comparison. Our rates differ from other national surveys, in particular Freddie Mac’s weekly published rates. Each week Freddie Mac surveys lenders on the rates and points based on first-lien prime conventional conforming home purchase mortgages with a loan-to-value of 80%. “Lenders surveyed each week are a mix of lender types — thrifts, credit unions, commercial banks and mortgage lending companies — is roughly proportional to the level of mortgage business that each type commands nationwide,” according to Freddie Mac.

Source: gmtoday.com