Existing-home sales fell to their lowest level in nearly 30 years in December—but that didn’t cool red-hot home prices, with the median price reaching an all-time high of $389,800, the National Association of REALTORS® reported Friday.
Existing-home sales—which include completed transactions for single-family homes, townhomes, condos and co-ops—declined 1% month over month in December and are down 6.2% compared to a year earlier, NAR’s latest sales index shows. But lower mortgage rates, which are now below historical norms, likely will set the stage for stronger sales in 2024, NAR predicts.
“The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in the upcoming months.”
But home buyers nationwide are still facing a dearth of options. Total housing inventory at the end of December was down 11.5% from November, remaining at historical lows. Many would-be sellers are reluctant to trade in their super-low mortgage rates from just a couple of years ago and make a move at today’s higher rates and home prices. This “lock-in effect” has been blamed for subduing housing inventory, along with sluggish new-home construction that economists say isn’t keeping pace with demographic needs.
With home prices continuing to surge, homeowners are watching their equity grow. Yun says 85 million homeowners saw gains in housing wealth last month. The average U.S. homeowner with a mortgage has built more than $300,000 in equity since their purchase date, according to CoreLogic’s equity report.
However, “the recent rapid, three-year rise in home prices is unsustainable,” Yun says. “If prices continue at the current pace, the country could accelerate into ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots.’ Creating a path towards homeownership for today’s renters is essential. It requires economic and income growth and, most importantly, a steady buildup of home construction.”
Homes Still Selling Fast, More Inventory Coming
Builders are trying to ramp up construction, but there are production swings from month to month. Housing construction fell 4.3% in December but remains above 1 million units, the Commerce Department reported this week. Single-family housing permits—a gauge of future construction—posted an uptick last month, indicating that more new inventory is on the way. Still, it’s likely to be a challenging year for new-home construction due to higher mortgage rates and tight monetary policy, says Alicia Huey, chair of the National Association of Home Builders.
“Moderating mortgage rates are expected to provide a boost to new-home construction in 2024, but an uptick in building material prices and a shortage of buildable lots and skilled labor are serious challenges for home builders,” adds Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, NAHB’s assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis.
In the existing-home market, homes continue to sell fast. Fifty-eight percent of those sold in December were on the market for less than a month, NAR’s latest research data shows. NAR has predicted a stronger housing market for 2024. Here are more key housing indicators from NAR’s December report:
Days on the market: Properties typically remained on the market for 29 days, up slightly from 26 days a year earlier.
First-time home buyers: First-time home buyers comprised 29% of sales, down from 31% in November.
All-cash sales: All-cash sales comprised 29% of transactions, up slightly from last year’s 28%. Individual investors and second-home buyers make up the biggest bulk of all-cash sales, accounting for 16%, NAR’s data shows.
Regional Breakdown
The following is a closer look at how existing-home sales fared across the country in December:
Northeast: Sales remained flat compared to November but were down 9.6% compared to a year earlier. Median price: $428,100, up 9.4% from the previous year.
Midwest: Sales fell 4.3% from the prior month, reaching an annual rate of 900,000. Sales are down 10.9% from last year. Median price: $275,600, up 5.9% from December 2022.
South: Sales fell 2.8% from November to an annual rate of 1.72 million. Sales are down 4.4% when compared to the prior year. Median price: $352,100, up 3.8% from one year ago.
West: Sales rose 7.8% from a month ago, reaching an annual rate of 690,000 in December. Sales are down 1.4% from the year prior. Median price: $582,000, up 4.8% from December 2022.
Weekly inventory change (Jan. 12-19): Inventory rose from 505,223 to 506,414
Same week last year (Jan. 13-20): Inventory fell from 473,406 to 472,852
The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 is 569,898
For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 933,746
Yes, the inventory growth rate slowed weekly, but I will take it! I have been waiting for years for a standard inventory data line to start the year, and so far that’s what I’m seeing. Traditionally, the weekly inventory bottoms out in January or February and rises into the spring. The bottom has been in March and April in the past few years. So far, so good in 2024.
New listings data
While new listings data isn’t growing in significant terms year over year — sorry, silver tsunami crowd — it is showing growth year over year. Most sellers are buyers, and new listing data decreased after rates increased in 2022. So, we are working our way back to normal, and lthough we still have a way to go, but I am happy with this. I talked about this very topic on CNBC a few days ago.
New listings data last week over the past several years:
2024: 44,244
2023: 42,765
2022: 42,620
Price cut percentage
Every year, one-third of all homes take a price cut before selling — nothing abnormal about that. However, this data line accelerates when mortgage rates rise and demand gets hit harder. A perfect example was in 2022: when housing inventory rose faster, the percentage of price cuts rose faster, as home sales crashed. That increase matched the slope of the inventory increase, and people needed to cut prices to sell their homes.
This is not what we’re seeing now, as home sales aren’t crashing like they did in 2022. Sales aren’t growing much, but they’re not crashing as they did in 2022, so we track this data line religiously weekly to get clues, especially with the movement of mortgage rates
This is the price-cut percentage for the same week over the last few years:
2024 31.4%
2023 34.7%
2022 20.6%
Purchase application data
So, the 2024 spring season officially started last week and purchase apps were positive 9% week to week. I believe tracking this data line when mortgage rates are rising is always vital. Of course, we aren’t talking about 8% mortgage rates anymore, but mortgage rates have risen from the recent lows. So far no damage to the data line yet. We have had a positive trend streak since rates have fallen. I exclude all the holiday weeks and the first week of the year, so we have had seven weeks of positive trend and year-to-data we’ve had one positive print.
We just had the existing home sales report that showed a month-to-month decline. One thing to always remember about purchase application data: it looks out 30-90 days before it hits the sales data, so the December report was too soon to account for the full effect of lower mortgage rates and rising application data.
Also, remember we are working from deficient demand levels, so take the bounce in that context. This isn’t like the COVID-19 recovery, which was fast and had a big volume.
Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield
The 10-year yield is the key for housing in 2024. In my 2024 forecast, I have the 10-year yield range between 3.21%-4.25%, with a critical line in the sand at 3.37%. If the economic data stays firm, we shouldn’t break below 3.21%, but if the labor data gets weaker, that line in the sand — which I call the Gandalf line, as in “you shall not pass” — will be tested. This 10-year yield range means mortgage rates between 5.75%-7.25%. This assumes spreads are still bad.
Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield both rose last week. Mortgage rates started the week at 6.77% and finished the week at 6.92%. The 10-year yield started the week around 4%, and intraday almost reached 4.20% before heading lower and ending at 4.13%. One positive story in 2024 is that the spreads are getting better this year, and if we get 4.25% on the 10-year yield, we won’t hit 7.25% in mortgage rates.
Last week, we had some excellent labor data from jobless claims. We also had some Fed presidents push back on rate cuts, regarding how many we will have this year. So, always remember that inflation data has fallen noticeably year over year. However, you want to go with labor data over inflation if you’re looking for lower mortgage rates, especially under 6%.
The growth rate on a three- to six-month Core PCE inflation report could be under 2% in the following report. Even with that reality, which the market knows, the 10-year yield today is still above 4%. This looks right to me with a Hawkish Fed and the jobless claims data being low. The closer we get to my critical level of 323,000 on the four-week moving average, the more the bond market will act differently; the headline data just broke under 200,000 again.
Remember, the Fed hasn’t pivoted: they’re less hawkish with their policy because they over-hiked last year and want to take back some of their rate hikes.
The week ahead: Inflation and housing
We have the all-important PCE inflation report coming out Friday, which can show sub 2% PCE inflation data on the three- and six-month averages. We also have new home sales and pending home sales. Pending home sales should show a bounce from the recent report as we will start to filter the positive purchase apps report. If it doesn’t show growth, it should be the last one before it picks up a bit.
Last week, housing inventory grew and the number of price cuts fell, which is expected at this time of the year. I hope the next thing we see is housing inventory grow at the level it typically does in January or February instead of being delayed until March or April. Last year at this time, inventory rose week to week and I was hopeful for a typical spring inventory year, but the seasonal bottom didn’t actually happen until April 14. So let’s hope for more home sellers in 2024.
Weekly housing inventory data
Here is a look at the first week of the year:
Weekly inventory change (Jan. 5-12): Inventory rose from 499,143 to 505,223
Same week last year (Jan. 6-13): Inventory rose from 471,349 to 473,406
The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 is 569,898
For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 931,002
I don’t want to jinx this because active inventory rose last year at this time. In any case, we will keep an eye on housing inventory going out in the future. As you can see, we are still a bit away from my ultimate goal of having total active listings back to 2019 levels.
Price cut percentage
Every year, one third of all homes take a price cut before they sell — there is nothing abnormal about that. However, this data line accelerates when mortgage rates rise and demand gets hit harder. A perfect example was 2022: when housing inventory rose, the percentage of price cuts rose and home sales crashed. This is not what we’re seeing now. Sales aren’t growing much, but they’re not crashing as they did in 2022 so we track this data line religiously every week to get clues.
This is the price-cut percentage for the same week over the last few years:
2024 32.2%
2023 35.8%
2022 21.7%
New listing data
New listings data can grow in 2024, something I talked about on CNBC last year as this data line didn’t trend much lower when mortgage rates were heading toward 8%. We took an affordability hit after July of 2022 and since most sellers are also buyers, it was too expensive to move, or you couldn’t qualify to sell to buy another house, directly impacting housing inventory.
Every year, wages grow and home-price growth has significantly slowed since the madness after COVID-19. We can grow new listings from these depressed levels and get more demand. While this isn’t the Silver Tsunami some have promised, any growth back to 2021-2022 levels is a plus.
2024 39,640
2023 36,804
2022 37,091
Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield
The 10-year yield is the key for housing in 2024. In my 2024 forecast, I have the 10-year yield range between 3.21%-4.25%, with a critical line in the sand at 3.37%. If the economic data stays firm, we shouldn’t break below 3.21%, but if the labor data gets weaker, that line in the sand — which I call the Gandalf line, as in “you shall not pass” — will be tested. This 10-year yield range means mortgage rates between 5.75%-7.25%. This assumes spreads are still bad.
Last week, even with the CPI and PPI inflation data, the 10-year yield stayed in a small range between 3.92%-4.07%. We have already moved lower in a big fashion from 5.04% to 3.80%; that 3.80% level is critical for now. Mortgage ranges have been calm as the spreads have been getting better. Mortgage rates started the week at 6.74%, reached as high as 6.80% and ended the week at 6.69%. We want to watch labor data and track if the spreads improve this year because mortgage rates should be 0.75% to 1.125% lower today but aren’t due to the spreads.
Next week, retail sales could be a driver of the 10-year yield, and therefore mortgage rates. Also, any Federal Reserve presidents talking about slowing down the quantitative tightening process would be a plus. This is something that they have been talking about recently.
Purchase application data
One of the things I have stressed over the years is that nobody should put any weight on the purchase application data during the last few weeks of the year because hardly anyone fills out a mortgage application during Christmas and New Years. And since the data takes a seasonal low dive, it tends to then bounce during the first week of the year, so we should ignore the first week of the year as well.
This is why I stress tracking purchase applications the second week of January to the first week of May. Volumes always tend to fall after May. With that said, purchase applications did have 6% week-to-week growth last week, but what was more encouraging to see is that when mortgage rates fell recently from 8% to almost 6.50%, we had six weeks of positive growth.
We can now officially start the seasonal housing period and the year-to-date counts on how many positive weeks we have versus negative weeks and where rates move. Remember that last year, even with mortgage rates ranging between 6%-8%, we had 23 positive and 24 negative prints and two flat prints for the year. Imagine a year with lower rates, and one where we don’t have a 2% increase in the calendar year. As you can see in the chart below, the bar is low for growth.
The week ahead: Housing week and CNBC
We have a ton of housing data coming up this week, including builders’ confidence, housing starts and the existing home sales report. Retail sales also come out this week, and that report might move the bond market early in the morning. And unless the schedule changes, I will be on CNBC on Thursday on the Exchange segment, talking about the housing starts data.
The key for 2024: track all economic data religiously to see its impact on the 10-year yield!
This week’s Afford Anything blog post is a well-balanced diet:
Robert Kiyosaki predicts a massive crash — [philosophical]
Sobering stats about the housing market — [analytical]
Secret strategies to save on seasonal shopping — [practical]
The Robert Who Cried Wolf
Famed investor Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, recently caused an internet stir by predicting “the start of the biggest crash in history.”
Of course he did.
Kiyosaki is constantly crying wolf. It’s good for (his) business.
Bad news travels faster than good news.
People who prioritize attention over truth will use that to their advantage. Kiyosaki is a shrewd businessman. He understands the profit potential in strategic pessimism.
But that’s bad news for his followers. Per the law of large numbers, it’s reasonable that some people have kept their cash on the sidelines, rather than investing in the markets, after heeding his warnings. And that has massive lifelong ramifications on their wealth and retirement.
Lesson: Beware of anyone who peddles *negativity bias* in order to stay relevant.
These economic fear-mongerers don’t hold accountability for their track record of wrong predictions.
Their followers are the ones who suffer.
This is why it’s critical to choose your mentors carefully — and it’s precisely why you should never blindly enroll in an online class that’s taught by some random person whose ideas you haven’t vetted.
If you’re curious how often Kiyosaki has made the wrong call, note that Stanford-trained data scientist Nick Maggiulli, our guest on Episode 375 of the Afford Anything podcast, shared this illustration on X:
Pessimism has a visceral appeal. It’s evolutionarily advantageous to be hyper-aware of threats.
Our ancestors didn’t survive the jungle or savanna by appreciating the beautiful flowers. They survived by staying hyper-vigiliant of danger. This explains why negativity bias is so innate, so intrinsic. It’s a survival mechanism.
But in the modern developed world, pessimism keeps us overly conservative. We choose the “safe” major. We take the “steady” job. We tilt too heavily into conservative investments when we’re young, and we panic when our 401k’s start to decline. We avoid real estate investing and starting side businesses because these seem too risky.
Pessimism stifles innovation, entrepreneurship, and creativity. It locks us into mundane careers and middling investments as we muddle through risk-averse lives. In the end, we haven’t endured huge losses, but neither have we *embraced a shot* of winning.
As Episode 284 podcast guest Morgan Housel eloquently said:
“Pessimists get to be right. Optimists get to be rich.”
No, The Fed Lowering Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points Is Not Going to Flood the Market with New Housing Inventory 🙄
A little history lesson:
Once upon a time, in 2008, there was a Great Recession. It scared many investors and homebuilders, and they stopped making new homes.
In the decade that followed the Great Recession, new construction reached its lowest point since the 1960’s.
By 2019, the housing shortage amounted to 3.8 million units. This means there were 3.8 million more families and individuals who wanted a place to live — either to rent or buy — than there were homes available.
Then the pandemic struck. The prices of copper, lumber and other construction items shot through the roof (no pun intended). Builders had to raise home sale prices due to higher materials costs. Prices soared.
In 2020 and 2021, people across the internet cried, “Why are they charging so much more than the home is worth?!” — not realizing that “worth” is a function of the cost of labor + the cost of materials + the premium of scarcity.
And when supply is curtailed — as it was by 3.8 million units as of 2019 — there’s an ample scarcity premium.
Then inflation climbed. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times during their 2022-2023 cycle, resulting in a rapid escalation of mortgage rates.
This created a “lock-in effect” among existing homeowners. Nobody wants to trade a mortgage with a 3 percent fixed interest rate for an alternate mortgage with a 7 percent rate.
Existing homeowners with a mortgage have a huge incentive to hold.
Sellers who *need* to get rid of their property — for example, because they’re moving to another country — list their homes on the market. But homeowners who simply *want* to upsize or downsize are, for the most part, staying put.
This has created even more housing supply pressure.
Meanwhile, homebuilders — who must borrow money to finance their operations — are seeing the cost of capital skyrocket. Many have curtailed new construction, putting further pressure on the supply pipeline.
So we have a long-running confluence of factors that, piece by piece, keep exacerbating the housing supply crunch.
And this leads to today’s takeaway:
No, this problem will not magically solve itself the moment that the Fed reduces interest rates.
The Fed is meeting today and tomorrow. They’re widely expected to hold rates steady. (They’ll make an official announcement at 2 pm on Wednesday.)
There’s rampant speculation that the Fed will lower interest rates in Q1 or Q2 of next year.
— And —
There seems to be a pervasive myth that once interest rates decline, those “locked-in” homeowners will rush to list their homes for sale, flooding the market with new inventory.
The supply-demand imbalance will tilt in the buyer’s favor, home prices will plummet, and housing will become affordable once again.
Yet that is pure fantasy, disconnected from the data.
Imagine 10 people. Nine of them have mortgage rates that are less than 6 percent. The stat is 91.8 percent of mortgaged homeowners, to be precise.
Wait.
Imagine those same 9 people, the 9 out of 10 who have a sub-6 percent interest rate. Here’s how they break down:
One has an interest rate between 5 to 6 percent.
Two have an interest rate between 4 to 5 percent.
Six have an interest rate below 4 percent. The exact stat is 62 percent.
Let me say that again:
Six out of 10 mortgaged homeowners have an interest rate that’s below 4 percent.
Meanwhile:
One-half of mortgaged homeowners (49 percent) say they’d consider listing their home only if interest rates fell below 4 percent, according to a Redfin survey conducted by Qualtrics.
So this myth that if the Fed lowers interest rates, the market will get flooded with new inventory? — That scenario isn’t likely to happen for a long, long, looooong time.
As of Dec 12, 2023, the current average 30-year fixed rate for a buyer with a 740-760 credit score is 7.4 percent. Multiple reductions in interest rates won’t begin to approach the sub-4 percent rates of yesteryear.
The “lock-in effect” will last for longer than you might expect.
Lesson:Don’t wait to buy a home based on speculation about the market. If you have both the money and desire to buy a home, DO IT NOW. Homes are likely going to get more expensive in the future, not less.
How to Not Flush AS MUCH Money Down the Toilet This Holiday Season
Yeah, I know.
The holiday season is custom-built for parting with your money. Every store is promoting sales, discounts, offers. Limited time only.
It’s scarcity on steroids.
Holiday deals tap into the part of our brain that says — “this deal is only available now; I should snag it while I still can.”
Our FOMO creates jobs and drives the economy.
Since holiday spending is human nature, let’s forgo the guilting, shaming and finger-wagging that’s so endemic to the personal finance and FIRE community.
It’s counterproductive. Guilt and shame over holiday spending doesn’t change human behavior, it merely robs the joy from it.
It’s like chowing down a piece of chocolate cake while simultaneously fretting about the sugar.
You’re eating the cake regardless. You may as well enjoy it.
Instead, let’s accept that some degree of holiday spending is normal, and let’s focus on how to find the best deal possible.
Here are four pointers. (If you have more to add, please share these with the Afford Anything community) —
#1: If you’re buying an item at a mid-size company’s website (i.e., a merchant that’s bigger than a mom-and-pop shop, but not a big box retailer like Target or Amazon) — move your cursor near the “back” arrow on the browser.
This is called “exit intent,” and it often triggers pop-ups with discount codes.
#2: For online purchases: Create an account, put an item in your cart, and then leave the website.
This is called “abandoned cart,” and often triggers an automation in which the company emails you a limited-time-offer discount code.
#3: If you’re buying something expensive (over $500 – $1,000 or more), track the price for a few weeks, especially around the holidays. On sites like Wayfair, I’ve seen prices fluctuate daily.
#4: The least useful savings tip: Googling discount / promo codes or pulling these codes from mass aggregator websites.
You may get lucky, but typically 9/10 are expired or don’t work; they just yield a bunch of extra open tabs on your browser.
There’s an enormous selection of third-party websites and browser extensions that claim to help with this, with varying degrees of efficacy.
I’m not going to recommend any specific tools; recommendations are both dynamic and better crowdsourced. Please share your experience with the community.
Traditionally, one third of all homes get a price cut before they sell and when demand gets weaker, this percentage increases, which we saw in 2022 when prices were falling in the second half of the year. However, as home sales stabilized in 2023, so did this data line. While the percentage of price cuts is still much higher than 2021 levels, this explains why prices were stable in the second half of 2023 versus the second half of 2022.
Now that mortgage rates have fallen and as we start the brand new year, we need to focus on this data line more. I believe we should get more sellers in 2024 than in 2023, but that doesn’t necessarily mean home prices will fall.
Price cut percentages
As you can see in the chart below, if we continue the current seasonal trend, we are going to surpass the price-cut percentage lows of 2023 by this spring. This is why following the housing market tracker tied to the 10-year yield, mortgage rates, and purchase application data will be as critical as last year to tell you what’s going on in the housing market. That way you don’t need to wait for stale sales data. If mortgage rates increase or supply grows faster than expected, this data line is critical to telling the truth.
Here are the year-over-year price-cut percentages from the first week of the year:
2024 32.8%
2023 36.5%
2022 22.6%
It’s 2024! Time to get this party started!
Of course, my main wish during the crazy COVID-19 period was to try to get total active listings back to pre-COVID-19 levels, which was a functioning marketplace with more choices. It’s been challenging as only a few parts of the U.S. have returned to pre-COVID-19 levels. However, one key for 2024 is finding the seasonal bottom in housing inventory sooner rather than later. We want to see active inventory bottom out in January and February — not March and April.
Weekly housing inventory data
Here is a look at the first week of the year:
Weekly inventory change (Dec. 29-Jan. 5): Inventory fell from 513,240 to 499,143
Same week last year (Dec. 30-Jan. 6): Inventory fell from 490,809 to 471,349
The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 is 569,898
For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 959,028
New listings data
This is the year we should all be rooting for new listings data to grow. Last year, It was great to see that new listing data didn’t take a new dive lower no matter how high mortgage rates got. While working from the lowest levels, 2024 should show year-over-year growth: I’d like to see new listings data get back to 2021 and 2022 levels. Both these years were the lowest new listing levels before rates rose, so it’s not asking for much. I talked about this on CNBC a few months ago.
The year-over-year data is meaningless late in the year or very early: we need to get back to 2021 and 2022 levels during the spring period entering the summer. Hopefully, this will occur in 2024.
Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield
In my 2024 forecast, the 10-year yield range is between 4.25%-3.21%, with a critical line in the sand at 3.37%. If the economic data stays firm, we shouldn’t break below 3.21%, but if the labor data gets weaker, that line in the sand — which I call the Gandalf line, as in “you shall not pass,” will be tested. This 10-year yield range means mortgage rates between 7.25%-5.75%. If the spreads get better, mortgage rates can be lower than this.
Last week was jobs week, and some of the data was good, while some showed softness. Starting from Tuesday, mortgage rates starting didn’t move too much even though the bond market had some wild swings.
However, from the previous week, we went from mortgage rates of 6.61% to a high of 6.76%. Right now, I am watching for 3.80% on the 10-year yield, and if the economic data gets better and the Federal Reserve makes another mistake by getting too hawkish, 4.40% on the upside. However, one big positive now is that the spreads are improving. We have the CPI inflation report coming up this week, so that should be a market mover. Always remember, the Fed presidents can say something hawkish and mess things up daily.
Purchase application data
I will keep this very short and sweet: we never care about the last two weeks of the year with purchase applications because nothing happens during Christmas and New Year’s Eve. Traditionally don’t track the first week of the year either, but for the tracker purposes, starting next week, I will.
The truth is that mortgage demand has collapsed, and it has a tough time growing with rates above 6%. With that said, last year, we had 23 positive and 24 negative prints, and two flat prints for the year. Before Christmas came, we had an excellent six-week positive growth trend as mortgage rates fell almost 1.5% from 8%.
Purchase apps are seasonal; we focus on the second week of January to the first week of May. Traditionally, volumes always fall after May, so we will get a good idea of how the year will look soon. Remember, context is vital we are working from the lowest levels ever, so it doesn’t take much to move the needle higher, but we want to see real growth, not a low-level bounce. A sub-6% mortgage rate with duration should do the trick, but we aren’t there yet. So, for now, we will be very mindful of the weekly data.
The week ahead
We have two inflation reports coming out this week: The all-important CPI report on Thursday and the PPI report on Friday. The growth rate of inflation has cooled down enough to stop the rate hike cycle and now we want to see rate cuts. The one good thing about the CPI report is that the most significant component of CPI, shelter inflation, hasn’t had its big move lower yet. Also, it’s impossible to have core CPI accelerate higher without shelter inflation taking off again since it’s 44.4% of the index.
In the first week of 2024, mortgage rates continued to stick around the mid 6% mark.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.62% as of Jan. 4, a slight increase from the 6.61% rate recorded on Dec. 28, according to Freddie Mac‘s Primary Mortgage Market Survey released on Thursday. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.89% this week, down from 5.93% the prior week. HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed Optimal Blue’s average 30-year fixed rate on conventional loans at 6.68% on Thursday, up from 6.56% recorded at the same time last week.
“Between late October and mid-December, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage plummeted more than a percentage point,” Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater said in a statement. “However, since then rates have moved sideways as the market digests incoming economic data.”
Given the expectation of rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, Khater expects mortgage rates to continue drifting downward.
“While lower mortgage rates are welcome news, potential homebuyers are still dealing with the dual challenges of low inventory and high home prices that continue to rise,” he added.
One year ago this week, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.48%, while the 15-year rate stood at 5.73%.
Lower rates attract homebuyers back to the market but difficulties persist
According to a Realtor.com survey, 11% of surveyed prospective homebuyers said that they would be able to buy a home if rates went below the 7% threshold. Another 12% of surveyed homebuyers said that rates would need to dip below 6% for them to be able to buy a home. Meanwhile, more than a quarter (28%) said rates would need to dip below 4% to bring them into the market.
Currently, the typical outstanding mortgage rate is still under 4%. This discrepancy is not creating any incentive for sellers to sell their homes in the current rate environment, according to Realtor.com Economic Research Analyst Hannah Jones.
However, the cost of buying a home did come down in December, sending an encouraging signal to the market. As per a Redfin study, the median U.S. mortgage payment was $2,361 during the four weeks ending December 31, down $372 (-14%) from October.
According to Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant, the lack of inventory remains the main issue, keeping home prices elevated.
“Young buyers are having to delay buying a home as it takes them longer to save for a down payment and they often have to make offers on multiple homes before they are successful,” Sturtevant said. “Many first-time homebuyers have been priced out of the market altogether.”
Sturtevant expects the lack of inventory to remain a challenge this year even as mortgage rates fall.
You can sense it in the ubiquitous “Help Wanted” posters in artsy shops and restaurants, in the ranks of university students living out of their cars and in the outsize percentage of locals camping on the streets.
This seaside county known for its windswept beauty and easy living is in the midst of one of the most serious housing crises anywhere in home-starved California. Santa Cruz County, home to a beloved surf break and a bohemian University of California campus, also claims the state’s highest rate of homelessness and, by one measure based on local incomes, its least affordable housing.
Leaders in the city of Santa Cruz have responded to this hardship in a land of plenty — and to new state laws demanding construction of more affordable housing — with a plan to build up rather than out.
A downtown long centered on quaint sycamore-lined Pacific Avenue has boomed with new construction in recent years. Shining glass and metal apartment complexes sprout in multiple locations, across a streetscape once dominated by 20th century classics like the Art Deco-inspired Palomar Inn apartments.
And the City Council and planning department envision building even bigger and higher, with high-rise apartments of up to 12 stories in the southern section of downtown that comes closest to the city’s boardwalk and the landmark wooden roller coaster known as the Giant Dipper.
“It’s on everybody’s lips now, this talk about our housing challenge,” said Don Lane, a former mayor and an activist for homeless people. “The old resistance to development is breaking down, at least among a lot of people.”
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Said current Mayor Fred Keeley, a former state assemblyman: “It’s not a question of ‘no growth’ anymore. It’s a question of where are you going to do this. You can spread it all over the city, or you can make the urban core more dense.”
But not everyone in famously tolerant Santa Cruz is going along. The high-rise push has spawned a backlash, exposing sharp divisions over growth and underscoring the complexities, even in a city known for its progressive politics, of trying to keep desirable communities affordable for the teachers, waiters, firefighters and store clerks who provide the bulk of services.
A group originally called Stop the Skyscrapers — now Housing for People — protests that a proposed city “housing element” needlessly clears the way for more apartments than state housing officials demand, while providing too few truly affordable units.
City officials say the plan they hope to finalize in the coming weeks, with its greater height limits, only creates a path for new construction. The intentions of individual property owners and the vicissitudes of the market will continue to make it challenging to build the 3,736 additional units the state has mandated for the city.
“We’ve talked to a lot of people, going door to door, and the feeling is it’s just too much, too fast,” said Frank Barron, a retired county planner and Housing for People co-founder. “The six- and seven-story buildings that they’re building now are already freaking people out. When they hear what [the city is] proposing now could go twice as high, they’re completely aghast.”
Susan Monheit, a former state water official and another Housing for People co-founder, calls 12-story buildings “completely out of the human scale,” adding: “It’s out of scale with Santa Cruz’s branding.”
Housing for People has gathered enough signatures to put a measure on the March 2024 ballot that, if approved, would require a vote of the people for development anywhere in the city that would exceed the zoning restrictions codified in the current general plan, which include a cap of roughly seven or eight stories downtown.
The activists say that they are trying to restore the voices of everyday Santa Cruzans and that city leaders are giving in to out-of-town builders and “developer overreach laws.”
The nascent campaign has generated spirited debate. Opponents contend the slow-growth measure would slam on the brakes, just as the city is overcoming decades of construction inertia. They say Santa Cruz should be a proud outlier in a long string of wealthy coastal cities that have defied the state’s push to add housing and bring down exorbitant home prices and rental costs.
Diana Alfaro, who works for a Santa Cruz development company, said many of the complaints about high-rise construction sound like veiled NIMBYism.
“We always hear, ‘I support affordable housing, but just not next to me. Not here. Not there. Not really anywhere,’ ” said Alfaro, an activist with the national political group YIMBY [Yes In My Back Yard] Action. “Is that really being inclusive?”
The dispute has divided Santa Cruz’s progressive political universe. What does it mean to be a “good liberal” on land-use issues in an era when UC Santa Cruz students commonly triple up in small rooms and Zillow reports a median rent of $3,425 that is higher than San Francisco’s?
Beginning in the 1970s, left-leaning students at the new UC campus helped power a slow-growth movement that limited construction across broad swaths of Santa Cruz County. Over the decades, the need for affordable housing was a recurring discussion. The county was a leader in requiring that builders who put up five units of housing or more set aside 15% of the units at below-market rates.
But Mayor Keeley said local officials gave only a “head nod” to the issue when it came to approving specific projects. “Well, here we are, 30 or 40 years later,” Keeley said, “and these communities are not affordable.”
Today, with 265,000 residents, the county is substantially wealthy and white.
An annual survey this year found Santa Cruz County pushed past San Francisco to be the least affordable rental market in the country, given income levels in both places. And many observers say UC Santa Cruz students contend with the toughest housing market of any college town in the state.
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State legislators have crafted dozens of laws in recent years to encourage construction of more homes, particularly apartments. While California has long required local governments to draft “housing elements” to demonstrate their commitment to affordable housing, state officials only recently passed other measures to actually push cities to put the plans into practice.
Regional government associations draw up a Regional Housing Needs Assessment, designating how many housing units — including affordable ones — should be built during an eight-year cycle. The state Department of Housing and Community Development can reject plans it deems inadequate.
For years 2024 to 2031, Santa Cruz was told it should build at least 3,736 units, on top of its existing 24,036.
Santa Cruz and other cities have been motivated, at least in part, by a heavy “stick”: In cases when cities fail to produce adequate housing plans, the state’s so-called “builder’s remedy” essentially allows developers to propose building whatever they want, provided some of the housing is set aside for low- or middle-income families. In cities like Santa Monica and La Cañada-Flintridge, builders have invoked the builder’s remedy to push ahead with large housing projects, over the objections of city leaders.
The Santa Cruz City Council resolved to avoid losing control of planning decisions. A key part of their plan envisions putting up to 1,800 units in a sleepy downtown neighborhood of auto shops, stores and low-rise apartments south of Laurel Street. Initial concepts suggested one block could go as high as 175 feet (roughly 16 stories), but council members later proposed a 12-story height limit, substantially taller than the stately eight-story Palomar, which remains the city’s tallest building.
City planners say focusing growth in the downtown neighborhood makes sense, because bus lines converge there at a transit center and residents can walk to shops and services.
“The demand for housing is not going away,” said Lee Butler, the city’s director of planning and community development, “and this means we will have less development pressure in other areas of the city and county, where it is less sustainable to grow.”
A public survey found support for a variety of other proposed improvements to make the downtown more attractive to walkers, bikers and tourists. Among other features, the plan would concentrate new restaurants and shops around the San Lorenzo River Walk; replace the fabric-topped 2,400-seat Kaiser Permanente Arena, which hosts the Santa Cruz Warriors (the G-league affiliate of the NBA’s Golden State Warriors), with a bigger entertainment and sports venue; and better connect downtown with the beach and boardwalk.
Business owners say they favor the housing plan for a couple of reasons: They hope new residents will bring new commerce, and they want some of the affordable apartments to go to their workers, who frequently commute well over an hour from places such as Gilroy and Salinas.
Restaurateur Zach Davis called the high cost of housing “the No. 1 factor” that led to the 2018 closure of Assembly, a popular farm-to-table restaurant he co-owned.
“How do we keep our community intact, if the people who make it all happen, the workers who make Santa Cruz what it is, can’t afford to live here anymore?” Davis asked.
The city’s plan indicates that 859 of the units built over the next eight years will be for “very low income” families. But the term is relative, tied to a community’s median income, which in Santa Cruz is $132,800 for a family of four. Families bringing home between $58,000 and $82,000 would qualify as very low income. Tenants in that bracket would pay $1,800 a month for a three-bedroom apartment in one recently completed complex, built under the city’s requirement that 20% of units be rented for below-market rents.
The people pushing for high-rise development say expanding the housing supply will stem ever-rising rents. Opponents counter that the continued growth of UC Santa Cruz, which hopes to add 8,500 students by 2040, and a new surge of highly paid Silicon Valley “tech bros” looking to put down roots in beachy Santa Cruz would quickly gobble up whatever number of new units are built.
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“They say that if you just build more housing, the prices will come down. Which is, of course, not true,” said Gary Patton, a former county supervisor and an original leader in the slow-growth movement. “So we’ll have lots more housing, with lots more traffic, less parking, more neighborhood impacts and more rich people moving into Santa Cruz.”
Leaders on Santa Cruz’s political left say new construction only touches one aspect of the housing crisis. Some of the leaders of Tenant Sanctuary, a renters’ rights group, would like to see Santa Cruz tamp down rents by creating complexes owned by the state or cooperatives and enacting a rent control law capping annual increases.
“No matter what they build, we need housing where the price is not tied to market swings and how much money can be squeezed out of a given area of land,” said Zav Hershfield, a board member for the group.
The up-zoning of downtown parcels has won the support of much of the city’s establishment, including the county Chamber of Commerce, whose chief executive said exorbitant housing prices are excluding blue-collar workers and even some well-paid professionals. “The question is, do you want a lively, vital, economically thriving community?” said Casey Beyer, CEO of the business group. “Or do you want to be a sleepy retirement community?”
Just days after the anti-high-rise measure qualified for the March ballot, the two sides began bickering over what impact it would have.
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Lane, the former mayor, and two affordable housing developers wrote an op-ed for the Lookout Santa Cruz news site that said the ballot measure is crafted so broadly it would apply to all “development projects.” They contend that could trigger the need for citywide votes for projects as modest as raising a fence from 6 feet to 7 feet, adding an ADU to a residential property or building a shelter for the homeless, if the projects exceed current practices in a given neighborhood.
The authors accused ballot measure proponents of faux environmentalism. “If we don’t go up,” they wrote, “we have less housing near jobs — and more people driving longer distances to get to work.”
The ballot measure proponents countered that their critics were misrepresenting facts. They said the measure would not necessitate voter approval for mundane improvements and would come into play in relatively few circumstances, for projects that require amendments to the city’s General Plan.
While not staking out a formal position on the ballot measure, the city’s planning staff has concluded the measure could force citizen votes for relatively modest construction projects.
The two sides also can’t agree on the impact of a second provision of the ballot measure. It would increase from 20% to 25% the percentage of “inclusionary” (below-market-rate) units that developers would have to include in complexes of 30 units or more.
The ballot measure writers say such an increase signals their intent to assure that as much new housing as possible goes to the less affluent. But their opponents say that when cities try to force developers to include too many sub-market apartments, the builders end up walking away.
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Santa Cruz’s housing inventory shows that the city has the potential to add as many as 8,364 units in the next eight years, when factoring in proposals such as the downtown high-rises and UC Santa Cruz’s plan to add about 1,200 units of student housing. That’s more than double the number required by the state. But the Department of Housing and Community Development requires this sort of “buffer,” because the reality is that many properties zoned for denser housing won’t get developed during the eight-year cycle.
As with many aspects of the downtown up-zoning, the two sides are at odds over whether incorporating the potential for extra development amounts to judicious planning or developer-friendly overkill.
The city’s voters have rejected housing-related measures three times in recent years. In 2018, they decisively turned down a rent control proposal. Last year, they said no to taxing owners who leave homes in the community sitting empty. But they also rejected a measure that would have blocked a plan to relocate the city’s central library while also building 124 below-market-rate apartment units.
The last time locals got this worked up about their downtown may have been at the start of the new millennium, when the City Council considered cracking down on street performers. That prompted the owner of Bookshop Santa Cruz, another local landmark, to print T-shirts and bumper stickers entreating fellow residents to “Keep Santa Cruz Weird.”
Santa Cruzans once again are being asked to consider the look and feel of their downtown and whether its future should be left to the City Council, or voters themselves. The measure provokes myriad questions, including these: Can funky, earnest, compassionate Santa Cruz remain that way, even with high-rise apartments? And, with so little housing for students and working folks, has it already lost its charm?
Mortgage interest rates continued their decline this week and have hit the lowest level in six months since May of 2023. Mortgage interest rates are now at an average of 6.61%, easing from 6.67% last week. The typical monthly mortgage payment for a $400,000 home is now at $2,046. While NAR’s Pending Home Sales shows flat data from October to November, the recent week’s rate decline should motivate buyers who had been priced out of the market.
There are many signs of encouragement heading into 2024 in the housing market, such as more housing inventory from home builders, lower mortgage interest rates, and demographics. This year, even the youngest baby boomer (born between 1946 and 1964) turned 60 years of age. Baby boomers are the largest share of home buyers and may be looking for their retirement property. Last year, half of older boomers paid all cash for their homes and are less concerned with mortgage interest rates. Additionally, millennials (the largest adult generation) may be looking for their first property or a move-up family home. Housing demand is apparent. With added inventory and better mortgage interest rates, 2024 looks like a better year.
If you’re financing a home with a mortgage, ensuring you get the best possible rate is one of the smartest financial moves you can make.
While it takes some legwork, the pay off is hard to argue with. Shaving even a fraction of a point from your rate can save you hundreds of dollars each month and tens of thousands over the life of the loan.
For example, with a $400,000 mortgage, dropping from a 7% to a 6.5% rate would save you almost $50,000 in interest over a 30-year term—roughly enough to pay for a year of private college.
Mortgage rates change constantly—and differ across mortgage companies. Here’s how to take advantage of those facts, compare current mortgage rates and get the best deal.
Current mortgage rates: How high are average mortgage rates right now?
WEEK ENDING
AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED RATE
AVERAGE 15-YEAR FIXED RATE
Dec. 28, 2023
6.61%
5.93%
Dec. 21, 2023
6.67%
5.95%
Dec. 14, 2023
6.95%
6.38%
Dec. 7, 2023
7.03%
6.29%
Nov. 30, 2023
7.22%
6.56%
Freddie Mac
Mortgage rates continued to cool in December, though averages remain high compared to recent years. According to mortgage-purchaser Freddie Mac, the average rate on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages fell from 7.22% at the start of the month to 6.61% today.
Rates dropped thanks to the Federal Reserve, which indicated cuts to its federal-funds rate—which mortgage rates generally follow—are likely come 2024. “This was a positive for mortgage rates, as we have seen them drop to a several-months low,” says Scott Haymore, who heads up mortgage pricing at TD Bank.
The drop in rates has spurred a modest increase in affordability for homebuyers. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, the average new mortgage payment is now $2,137, down about $60 compared to November.
Still, rates are also a far cry from the record-low of 2.65% that came during the pandemic.
AVERAGE RATE
DATE
Current rate
6.61%
Dec. 28, 2023
This time last year
6.42%
Dec. 29, 20222
Highest point in last decade
7.79%
Oct. 26, 2023
All-time high
18.53%
Oct. 16, 1981
All-time low
2.65%
Jan 7, 2021
Freddie Mac
Where are mortgage rates headed?
Mortgage rates are influenced by many factors, including the economy, investments into mortgage-backed securities, the Treasury bond market, inflation and, perhaps most important in recent years, moves by the Federal Reserve.
Between March 2022 and July 2023, the Fed increased the federal-funds rate—the rate at which banks can borrow money—11 times. And over that period, 30-year mortgage rates jumped from under 4% to over 7%. (To be clear: The Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates. Its federal-funds rate and mortgage rates tend to move in the same direction, though.)
The Fed has recently been easing off those rate hikes, opting to keep rates as-is at the last three meetings. If inflation keeps dropping—it fell to 3.1% in November—Fed officials expect to make three potential rate cuts next year, though nothing is set in stone. This would likely mean further drops in mortgage rates, too.
MBA currently projects the average 30-year mortgage rate will fall to 6.1% by the end of 2024. Mortgage purchaser Fannie Mae expects rates to drop to 6.5% by year’s end. Both would be an improvement, but according to Haymore, it won’t do much for overall housing affordability.
“Housing inventory remains low and affordability is an issue for many potential homebuyers,” Haymore says. “Those challenges will continue—even with rates falling.”
How are mortgage rates set?
While the Fed influences mortgage rates, it is only one piece of the puzzle. Other external factors play a role, too—as do the details of your financial situation and loan choice.
Here’s what you need to know about what determines your mortgage rate.
External factors
The overall state of the economy is a big contributor to the path of mortgage rates. When the economy is strong, rates tend to be higher. When the economy sputters, rates drop.
“Interest rates often will rise or fall based on the strength of the economy, and ironically, bad news can be good news for lower interest rates,” says Bill Banfield, an executive at lender Rocket Mortgage.
This is due in part to how economic conditions impact investment activity. When there are geopolitical concerns or the economy is wavering, investors tend to flock to safer investments—which include things such as Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This pushes the yields on those securities down (yields fall when bond prices rise), taking mortgage rates down with them.
“When there is high demand for mortgage-backed securities, the prices of those MBS increase, which in turn can lower mortgage interest rates,” says Tanya Blanchard, founder of mortgage brokerage Madison Chase Capital Advisors. “This is because investors are willing to accept lower returns on their investments when the prices of MBS are high.”
Finally, inflation factors in, too—and not just because of the Fed reaction. It also increases the costs for lenders to originate loans, which drives their prices higher as well.
Personal factors
Your personal finances will factor into your interest rate as well. First, there’s your credit score. Mortgage lenders use this number to gauge your risk as a borrower—or how likely you are to default on your loan. The lower your score, the higher the rate you’ll need to pay to compensate for the perceived risk.
“Credit score is a very important consideration when applying for a mortgage,” Banfield says. “If someone has a proven track record of being responsible with their finances, they’ll be more likely to get a mortgage and a better rate.”
The size of your down payment is important, too. A larger down payment means you have more to lose, which hopefully discourages you from defaulting. Smaller down payments, on the other hand, mean more risk for the lender and higher rates for you as a result.
Loan-specific factors
Last but not least, the type of mortgage loan you choose will also influence your rate. Loans backed by the government, such as Federal Housing Administration-backed FHA loans and Veterans Affairs-backed VA loans, tend to have lower rates than conventional or jumbo loans since they come with the federal government’s protection. Shorter-term loans (15 years, for example) also have lower rates than longer-term ones (30 years).
As Goodwin explains, “While a shorter-term loan will come with a higher monthly payment, it could save you thousands on interest in the long run.”
How, when and why to compare mortgage rates from different lenders
Because every lender has different overhead costs, operating capacities and appetite for risk, mortgage rates can vary significantly from one company to the next. That’s why it’s important to consider several lenders before choosing where to get your loan.
Freddie Mac recommends getting at least four quotes (it could save you an average of $1,200 a year, apparently). Just make sure you’re not only going by the rates a lender advertises on their website or on third-party sites.
“Looking at advertised rates alone is not a good way to shop around,” Goodwin says. “Lenders typically display the lowest rates they offer as a headline to attract leads, but the actual rate you may be offered can vary dramatically depending on your own financial situation and the kind of loan you’re looking for.”
Many advertised rates also include mortgage points—meaning you would need to pay an extra upfront fee to snag it.
To get a rate that is truly a reflection of what you would pay as a borrower, you need to apply for preapproval. You’ll have to fill out an application and agree to a credit check for this. Once you’re done, you’ll get a loan estimate that will detail the total loan amount you are likely to qualify for, plus your interest rate and expected closing costs—or the fees required to originate, underwrite and close on your loan. Be sure to look at the APR, too—the annual percentage rate. This reflects the total annual cost of the loan, considering both your rate and any fees.
Be warned, though: The rates you’re quoted aren’t guaranteed until you lock your rate. A rate lock guarantees your interest rate for a set period—usually only 30 to 60 days, depending on the lender. You’ll typically do this once you’ve found a home and have a contract in place.
How to calculate your mortgage costs
Comparing mortgage offers might seem tedious, but financially, it’s usually worthwhile. Even a small change in rate can have a big impact on your monthly payment and long-term interest costs.
You can use a mortgage calculator to break down the exact costs or use your loan estimate. This should detail your monthly payment, your interest rate and your total interest paid in five years.
See the difference that incremental rate changes can make on the cost of a 30-year, $400,000 home loan below:
RATE
MONTHLY PAYMENT
INTEREST OVER 30 YEARS
5%
$2,147
$373,023
5.25%
$2,208
$395,173
5.50%
$2,271
$417,616
5.75%
$2,334
$440,344
6%
$2,398
$463,352
6.25%
$2,462
$486,632
6.50%
$2,528
$510,177
6.75%
$2,594
$533,981
7%
$2,661
$558,035
Keep in mind that most mortgage loans are amortized, meaning the total costs are calculated and then paid in even payments across the loan term. With these loans, you’ll pay more interest upfront and less toward the end of the term. For example, your first payment at 6% would see $2,000 go toward interest, while your final payment would have just $11.93.
“At the beginning of the loan term, the majority of the monthly payment will go toward interest,” says Colleen Bara, a lending executive with Key Bank. “As the loan is paid down, more of the monthly payment is allocated toward the pay-down of the principal balance.”
This means if you sell your home quickly after taking out your loan, you likely won’t have paid down your balance much—and may not make much from the home, profit-wise. If this is a concern, making an extra payment each year you’re in the house can help.
“Make one extra principal payment yearly and you can shave off approximately seven years of interest,” Blanchard says.
More on Mortgages
The advice, recommendations or rankings expressed in this article are those of the Buy Side from WSJ editorial team, and have not been reviewed or endorsed by our commercial partners.
Broker, Fulfillment, Servicing Software Products; Housing for the Aging Population
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Broker, Fulfillment, Servicing Software Products; Housing for the Aging Population
By: Rob Chrisman
Thu, Dec 28 2023, 10:54 AM
If someone reports their company for tax evasion in the U.S., he or she will receive 30 percent of the amount collected. Have you ever loaned someone money and had them not pay you back? Here’s one thing that you can do to them (IRS’ 1099-C). While we’re on the general topic, despite strong retirement savings, Fidelity Investments’ Q3 2023 analysis reveals a surge in hardship withdrawals and 401(k) loans, addressing short-term financial challenges. By the numbers: 3 percent took hardship withdrawals (up from 1.8 percent in 2022). 8 percent tapped into 401(k) loans (compared to 2.4 percent last year). The silver lining? Retirement balances are on the rise, and savings rates remain steadfast. For those planning retirement, consider suggesting reverse mortgages as a game-changer. They offer an alternative, allowing access to funds without swiftly depleting hard-earned savings. If you haven’t set up reverse division at your shop, well, 10,000 people a day turn 62. Today’s podcast can be found here, and this week’s is sponsored by Gallus Insights. Mortgage KPIs, automated at your fingertips. Gallus allows you to go from data to actionable insights. If you can use Google, you can use Gallus. Hear an Interview with attorney Brian Levy on the NAR lawsuits and the implications for housing finance moving forward.
Broker and Lender Software, Products, and Programs
Are you a compliance nerd? A group of mortgage industry veterans has launched a software company for loan servicing that is getting a lot of attention. Keep your eyes and ears open for MESH software (Mortgage Enterprise Servicing Hub), which is their brand name for a series of software products aimed at loan servicers. The first product runs hundreds of compliance rules on loan portfolios daily, so servicers have a daily review of all loans against everything the CFPB, Agencies and States can throw at them. Look up “MESH Auditor”.
It’s time to start planning for the year ahead! Join the Computershare Loan Services (CLS) team from January 22 – 24 in The Big Easy for MBA’s Independent Mortgage Bankers Conference. With CLS’ originations fulfillment, co-issue MSR acquisition, subservicing, and mortgage cooperative, IMBs can streamline their operations, minimize expenses, and maximize profits. Contact the CLS team today to schedule a meeting in New Orleans.
Ring in the new year with a kinder outlook by joining us for the highly anticipated “Kind Mindset” event presented by Kind Lending. Taking place on January 16th, 2024, at The Buckhead Club in Atlanta, GA, this immersive event is designed to empower attendees with valuable insights on growth, success, and mindset. With an impressive lineup of speakers, including Kind Lending’s CEO/Founder, Glenn Stearns, and special guest Captain Charlie Plumb, 6-year Prisoner of War and former Fighter Pilot, this event promises to be a transformative and inspirational experience. Get ready to cultivate a “Kind Mindset” and embark on a journey of transformation and success. Register today.
Aging, Down Payments, and Housing Demographics
Do you think getting old is hard? The U.S. Census Bureau released a report showing that about 4 million U.S. households with an adult age 65 or older had difficulty living in or using some features of their home. About 50 million, or 40 percent, of U.S. homes had what were considered to be the most basic, aging-ready features: a step-free entryway into the home and a bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor. About 4 million or 11 percent of older households reported difficulty living in or using their home. The share increased to nearly 25 percent among households with a resident age 85 or older. Over half (about 57 percent) of older households reported their home met their accessibility needs very well, but only 6 percent of older households had plans to renovate their home in the near future to improve accessibility.
In general, Zillow expects home prices to remain roughly flat in 2024, with only a 0.2% increase in its housing market index. Existing home sales are expected to fall further to 3.74 million. Zillow does mention that this forecast does not take into account the latest forecast from the Fed, and the expectation for big rate cuts in 2024.
Falling mortgage rates have put some spring in the step of the homebuilders, according to the latest NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. As one would expect, with mortgage rates down roughly 50 basis points over the past month or two, builders are reporting an uptick in traffic as some prospective buyers who previously felt priced out of the market are taking a second look. With the nation facing a considerable housing shortage, boosting new home production is the best way to ease the affordability crisis, expand housing inventory and lower inflation. But builders have lagged production for so many years…
Non-builder loan officers find the builder world a tough nut to crack. Many, if not most, big builders are dealing with the mortgage rate issue by subsidizing buy-downs. Builders generally build free upgrades into their models, and these funds are being used to buy down the rate. The builder gets full price for the house, loses a few points on the mortgage, which might have instead gone to upgraded countertops or something else.
Even if one can get approved for a loan, buying can still be prohibitively expensive. Receiving help from family and friends for that crucial down payment can be a major turning point for many consumers. In fact, nearly 2 in 5 homeowners (39 percent) have received down payment assistance, according to LendingTree’s Mortgage Down Payment Help Survey, of nearly 2,000 U.S. consumers. 78 percent of Gen Z homeowners reported some financial support for a down payment, mostly from their parents. 54 percent of millennials have received down payment help, followed by 33 percent of Gen Xers.
Almost a third (31 percent) of Americans think putting down 20 percent for a down payment is obligatory. However, 59 percent of current homeowners say their down payments were less than 20 percent of the home’s purchase price, and just 29 percent put down 20 percent or more. One in 10 Americans never took out a mortgage, while 15 percent had a mortgage but have since paid it off. Baby boomers are the most likely to have paid off their mortgages, at 29 percent.
As anyone shopping for a home can tell you, it’s slim pickings out there. For many years we have been seeing the biggest squeeze in the starter home category. It appears that for years part of the problem is a lack of confidence to move up to the next category. People in starter homes are staying put, which is keeping homes off the market.
Capital Markets
It was another slow news day yesterday without any meaningful economic data or news to move sentiment. However, investors are laden with optimism as a soft-landing for the economy comes into view and seem to be throwing caution to the wind with over 150 basis points of Fed Funds easing fully priced in for next year. In accordance with that, benchmark bonds rallied to fresh highs yesterday after the U.S. Treasury sold $58 billion in 5-year notes to excellent demand. The strong auction exposed some short positioning, and it invited additional late buying. That followed Tuesday’s $57 billion 2-year Treasury auction that attracted a record number of indirect buyers to snap up high yields before the Fed’s anticipated rate cuts, which are fully priced in to begin at the March meeting in just over 80 days. Yields on benchmark treasuries have dropped to levels not seen since the summer.
Today has a fuller calendar than the past two sessions in regard to economic news. We are under way with initial jobless claims (+12k to 218k, a little higher than expected), continuing claims, advanced economic indicators for November (goods trade balance, retail inventories, and wholesale inventories), none of which moved rates. Later today brings the NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index for November, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, and another large amount of supply from the Treasury, headlined by $40 billion 7-year notes. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices worse a few ticks (32nds), the 10-year yielding 3.81 after closing yesterday at 3.79 percent, and the 2-year is down to 4.25.
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