The past three years in the mortgage industry were cutthroat, with origination volume shrinking, and while things are looking better for 2024, lenders are still in a position where they must make bold moves to stem losses on the production side of the business, according to a report from Stratmor Group, a mortgage advisory firm.
More than half of mortgage executives who participated in Stratmor’s recent survey indicated that they do not believe their companies have turned the corner to become profitable when it comes to originations — excluding servicing.
About 85% of surveyed executives believed that their company was either not profitable or was roughly breaking even in production.
If lenders’ losses come in as expected during fourth-quarter 2023 and first-quarter 2024, it will represent eight consecutive quarters of losses for more than 350 independent mortgage bankers, said Jim Cameron, senior partner at Stratmor.
Independent mortgage banks (IMBs) and mortgage subsidiaries of chartered banks have collectively been in the red for six consecutive quarters. Most recently, they reported an average net loss of $1,015 on each loan they originated in third-quarter 2023 — doubling the reported loss of $534 per loan in Q2, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA).
While lenders have been aggressively cutting labor costs — their largest type of expense — it has not been enough to reduce per-loan production expense.
Even with massive cuts to gross production expenses (from $44 million per company in Q3 2020 to $18 million in Q1 2023), the cost per loan has increased to more $13,000 as loan production units dropped off dramatically during that period.
As of Q3 2023, total loan production expenses were $11,441 per loan, up slightly from $11,044 in the prior quarter.
“As we head into 2024, it is clear we still have excess capacity and lenders must continue to be disciplined and aggressive in managing staffing levels,” Cameron said.
While labor is the priority when it comes to reducing costs, cutting down lease costs and making use of the hybrid work model; reviewing vendor contracts; and weeding out plug-ins with high costs and low adoption rates are needed, according to the report.
The silver lining for IMBs, in general, are their strong cash balances, the report noted.
After bouncing between the $6 million to $8 million range in 2018 and 2019, average cash balances now stand at about $11.5 million as of Q3 2023. Lenders sold off much of their servicing portfolios in 2022 and 2023, and balances would have been much lower without these moves, according Cameron.
“After a very challenging 2023 and not much relief expected in 2024, lenders must have a renewed focus on cash flow forecasting,” Cameron said.
“As a foundational need, mortgage bankers must ensure that they have a robust mechanism in place to forecast short-term, intermediate, and long-term cash flows. And coming in a close second is the need to get razor sharp with financial and operational reporting and monitoring of key performance indicators (KPIs). Mortgage bankers must be highly skilled at examining both costs and performance across a variety of dimensions, including fixed versus variable and break-even-point analyses,” he added.
Home sales plunged in 2023 to a nearly 30-year low amid surging mortgage rates, a shortage of available properties and rising real estate prices.
The National Association of Realtors said Friday that existing U.S. home sales totaled 4.09 million last year, an 18.7% decline from 2022. That is the weakest year for home sales since 1995 and the biggest annual decline since 2007, the start of the housing slump of the late 2000s.
The median national home price for all of last year edged up just under 1% to record high $389,800, the NAR said. Only about 16% of homes around the country were affordable for the typical home buyer last year, Redfin economist Zhao Chen told CBS News last month. By comparison, the share stood at about 40% prior to 2022.
Home inventory remains below pre-pandemic levels
04:08
The average rate on a 30-year home loan was 6.6% this week, according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac. If rates continue to ease, as many economists expect, that should help boost demand heading into the spring homebuying season, which traditionally begins in late February.
Still, the average rate remains sharply higher than just two years ago, when it was 3.56%. That large gap between rates now and then has helped limit the number of previously occupied homes on the market by discouraging homeowners who locked in rock-bottom rates from selling.
“We need more inventory to get the market moving,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist.
Despite easing mortgage rates, existing home sales fell 1% in December from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.78 million, the slowest sales pace since August 2010, the NAR said.
Where are mortgage rates headed?
Many economists expect mortgage rates to remain just above 6% by year-end.
“We expect mortgage rates to drop back from 6.8% currently to 6.25% by the end of the year,” Thomas Ryan, property economist with Capital Economics, in a report. “In our view, that modest fall won’t be enough to unwind mortgage rate ‘lock-in’ and bring a great deal more stock onto the market. Because of that, we’re forecasting a subdued recovery in sales volumes to 4.3 million by end-2024.”
December’s sales fell 6.2% from a year earlier. Last month’s sales pace is short of the roughly 3.83 million that economists were expecting, according to FactSet.
“The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year,” Yun said. “Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in upcoming months.”
According to a recent survey from Fannie Mae, as of December some 31% of consumers expected mortgage rates to decline over the next 12 months, a more optimistic outlook than the previous month.
Existing-home sales fell to their lowest level in nearly 30 years in December—but that didn’t cool red-hot home prices, with the median price reaching an all-time high of $389,800, the National Association of REALTORS® reported Friday.
Existing-home sales—which include completed transactions for single-family homes, townhomes, condos and co-ops—declined 1% month over month in December and are down 6.2% compared to a year earlier, NAR’s latest sales index shows. But lower mortgage rates, which are now below historical norms, likely will set the stage for stronger sales in 2024, NAR predicts.
“The latest month’s sales look to be the bottom before inevitably turning higher in the new year,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Mortgage rates are meaningfully lower compared to just two months ago, and more inventory is expected to appear on the market in the upcoming months.”
But home buyers nationwide are still facing a dearth of options. Total housing inventory at the end of December was down 11.5% from November, remaining at historical lows. Many would-be sellers are reluctant to trade in their super-low mortgage rates from just a couple of years ago and make a move at today’s higher rates and home prices. This “lock-in effect” has been blamed for subduing housing inventory, along with sluggish new-home construction that economists say isn’t keeping pace with demographic needs.
With home prices continuing to surge, homeowners are watching their equity grow. Yun says 85 million homeowners saw gains in housing wealth last month. The average U.S. homeowner with a mortgage has built more than $300,000 in equity since their purchase date, according to CoreLogic’s equity report.
However, “the recent rapid, three-year rise in home prices is unsustainable,” Yun says. “If prices continue at the current pace, the country could accelerate into ‘haves’ and ‘have-nots.’ Creating a path towards homeownership for today’s renters is essential. It requires economic and income growth and, most importantly, a steady buildup of home construction.”
Homes Still Selling Fast, More Inventory Coming
Builders are trying to ramp up construction, but there are production swings from month to month. Housing construction fell 4.3% in December but remains above 1 million units, the Commerce Department reported this week. Single-family housing permits—a gauge of future construction—posted an uptick last month, indicating that more new inventory is on the way. Still, it’s likely to be a challenging year for new-home construction due to higher mortgage rates and tight monetary policy, says Alicia Huey, chair of the National Association of Home Builders.
“Moderating mortgage rates are expected to provide a boost to new-home construction in 2024, but an uptick in building material prices and a shortage of buildable lots and skilled labor are serious challenges for home builders,” adds Danushka Nanayakkara-Skillington, NAHB’s assistant vice president for forecasting and analysis.
In the existing-home market, homes continue to sell fast. Fifty-eight percent of those sold in December were on the market for less than a month, NAR’s latest research data shows. NAR has predicted a stronger housing market for 2024. Here are more key housing indicators from NAR’s December report:
Days on the market: Properties typically remained on the market for 29 days, up slightly from 26 days a year earlier.
First-time home buyers: First-time home buyers comprised 29% of sales, down from 31% in November.
All-cash sales: All-cash sales comprised 29% of transactions, up slightly from last year’s 28%. Individual investors and second-home buyers make up the biggest bulk of all-cash sales, accounting for 16%, NAR’s data shows.
Regional Breakdown
The following is a closer look at how existing-home sales fared across the country in December:
Northeast: Sales remained flat compared to November but were down 9.6% compared to a year earlier. Median price: $428,100, up 9.4% from the previous year.
Midwest: Sales fell 4.3% from the prior month, reaching an annual rate of 900,000. Sales are down 10.9% from last year. Median price: $275,600, up 5.9% from December 2022.
South: Sales fell 2.8% from November to an annual rate of 1.72 million. Sales are down 4.4% when compared to the prior year. Median price: $352,100, up 3.8% from one year ago.
West: Sales rose 7.8% from a month ago, reaching an annual rate of 690,000 in December. Sales are down 1.4% from the year prior. Median price: $582,000, up 4.8% from December 2022.
Retail Sales came out at 0.6 vs a median forecast of 0.4 and rates moved higher as a result. Is the reaction justified? In a word: yes. There is no distortion from the fact that this is December’s data because this report is seasonally adjusted. How about the fact that everything costs more, so of course Retail Sales will be higher? That’s true, actually. Inflation also inflates this data series, but inflation was 0.3% last month, which is only half the Retail Sales result. More importantly, the economists doing the forecasting know all this stuff, so even if both of these aspects led to heavy distortions, a beat is still a beat when it comes to the bond market’s reaction. 10yr yields ended the day 5bps higher at 4.106 and MBS lost nearly 3/8ths of a point.
Retail Sales
0.6 vs 0.4 f’cast, 0.3 prev
08:44 AM
Moderately weaker overnight with additional selling after Retail Sales data. MBS down 3/8ths. 10yr up 5bps at 4.102
12:32 PM
Fairly sideways since initial weakness. Trading levels are exactly the same as the last update
04:42 PM
Still exceptionally flat. MBS and Treasuries both right in line with levels from the previous updates.
Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.
Average mortgage rates fell moderately yesterday. That was a bit of a surprise (though a welcome one) because yesterday’s inflation report would normally have pushed them higher. Read on for why markets might have reacted unexpectedly.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might fall. But these early mini-trends often switch direction or speed as the hours pass — as we saw yesterday.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.015%
7.03%
-0.07
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.28%
6.31%
-0.1
Conventional 20-year fixed
6.91%
6.93%
-0.065
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.09%
6.125%
-0.14
30-year fixed FHA
5.875%
6.545%
-0.3
30-year fixed VA
5.99%
6.14%
-0.085
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.31%
7.56%
-0.005
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Yesterday’s fall in mortgage rates showed markets continuing to have faith in a “soft landing,” which will occur if we continue to see falling inflation together with a resilient economy. Indeed, it suggests that faith can’t be shaken even by occasional unfriendly data.
I think a soft landing remains the most likely scenario for 2024.
So, my personal rate lock recommendations are:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
FLOAT if closing in 15 days
FLOAT if closing in 30 days
FLOAT if closing in 45 days
FLOATif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes tumbled to 3.93% from 4.04%. (Good for mortgage rates.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were rising this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices increased to $74.42 from $72.80 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices climbed to $2,065 from $2,036 an ounce. (Good for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — inched lower to 73 from 75. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to decrease. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Yesterday
I suspect that Wall Street has bought the narrative of a soft landing (see above) and, for now, is prepared to stick to it through thick and thin. That’s my only real explanation for why mortgage rates fell yesterday despite an unfriendly inflation report.
True, some saw the report as less unfriendly than others. The New York Times (paywall), for example, reported it under the headline, “Price Increases Tick Higher, but Show Moderation.”
But the consumer price index (CPI) was undeniably worse than expected. And that would normally exert some upward pressure on mortgage rates. Still, let’s not give this gift horse too close a dental inspection.
Today
Producer price indexes (PPIs) are typically less important than CPIs. But they still sometimes affect mortgage rates.
Today’s PPI showed factory-gate and wholesale prices rising more slowly than expected. And that would normally be good for mortgage rates. However, as we saw yesterday, markets don’t always follow such “rules.”
Next week
Rather like this week, next week starts slowly but contains an important economic report. Things are especially quiet on Monday because bond markets are closed for Martin Luther King Day. And closed bond markets mean mortgage rates shouldn’t move. (So, we shall not be publishing this daily report on Monday.)
Tuesday’s similarly dull with no economic reports scheduled for release.
However, Wednesday is potentially next week’s big day for mortgage rates, led by the retail sales report for December. But, after that, things tail off again.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Jan. 11 report put that same weekly average at 6.66%, up from the previous week’s 6.62%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the last quarter (Q4/23) and the following three quarters (Q1/24, Q2/24 and Q3/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Dec. 19 and the MBA’s on Dec. 13.
Forecaster
Q4/23
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Fannie Mae
7.4%
7.0%
6.8%
6.6%
MBA
7.4%
7.0%
6.6%
6.3%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
For the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
In fact, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. This gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements, or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders — and it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
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A surprising jump in a key inflation gauge means 2024 rate cuts that Federal Reserve policymakers telegraphed in December are more likely to happen later rather than sooner, which could keep mortgage rates from declining further until after the spring homebuying season.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday that rising rents and energy costs helped push the Consumer Price Index (CPI) up 3.4 percent in December from a year ago, compared to 3.1 percent annual growth in November.
It was the first time the key inflation index has moved in the wrong direction — away from the Fed’s goal of 2 percent — since September. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 3.9 percent in December from a year ago, an improvement from 4.0 percent annual growth in November.
Diane Swonk
“Today’s data confirms our view that the Fed will cut much less aggressively than many in financial markets hope,” KPMG Chief Economist Diane Swonk said in a thread on the social media platform X. “They are seeking a soft landing. That is a tough needle to thread. Soft landings are not the same as no landing scenarios.”
Swonk said KPMG is holding to the firm’s previous forecast that the Fed will approve four rate cuts this year and that it won’t start bringing rates down until June.
Economists polled by Reuters before the latest inflation data was released also expected 10-year Treasury yields to stay about where they are until June, which would mean mortgage rates would probably remain little changed through the spring homebuying season.
Consumer price index
The CPI hit 9 percent in June 2022, after pandemic-fueled supply chain issues and Fed easing sent prices for food, gasoline and other goods soaring. To slow the economy, Fed policymakers raised interest rates 11 times between March 2022 and July 2023, bringing the federal funds rate to a 22-year high of between 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent.
The interest rate hikes — along with “quantitative tightening,” in which the Fed is expected to pull $1 trillion in support from bond markets this year — helped bring the CPI down to 3 percent in June. But inflation has proven stubborn, and further gains have been elusive.
However, futures markets tracked by the CME FedWatch tool show investors on Thursday afternoon were still pricing in a 69 percent chance that the Fed will start cutting rates in March, up from 43 percent on Dec 11. Futures markets are pricing better than even odds that the Fed will make six or more rate cuts in 2024, or twice as many as Fed policymakers indicated in their most recent summary of economic projections.
That’s also the thinking at Pantheon Macroeconomics, which is forecasting that 10-year Treasury yields, a barometer for mortgage rates, will fall from 4 percent to 3.5 percent by the end of June and to 3.25 percent by the end of the year.
Ian Shepherdson
“These numbers don’t change the big picture,” Pantheon Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson said in a note to clients Thursday. “Core goods prices are flat or falling, rent gains are slowing but remain elevated, and core services inflation is still sticky. Note, though, that the Fed cares more about the core PCE than the core CPI, and the two numbers often diverge month-to-month.”
The Fed’s other inflation gauge: Core PCE
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Dec. 22 that the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which excludes food and energy prices, fell to 3.2 percent in November, down from 3.4 percent in October. With the exception of January, core PCE trended in the right direction every month last year.
“Wait for the core PCE before rushing to inflation judgment,” Shepherdson said of the numbers for December, which are set to be released Jan. 26.
While economists at Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association still expect the U.S. will experience a mild recession in 2024, hopes are growing that the Fed will be able to achieve a soft landing. Even a soft landing will cause some pain, Swonk warned.
“In a soft landing, profit margins, especially among mid and smaller firms which are more exposed to rate hikes and the repricing of debt, are squeezed,” Swonk said. “Higher interest rates and the push back to price hikes prompts cost cutting and a scaling back of hiring plans.”
The silver lining is that the Fed now appears to be just as concerned about the risks of keeping rates elevated as it does about inflation.
At the Fed’s last meeting, “Powell made clear he was willing to avert a full-blown recession in 2024 given the progress made on cooling inflation,” Swonk said. “That is a major shift from where we were a year ago.”
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There’s cautious optimism in the air among area real estate professionals looking into the 2024 home sales market.
If trends continue, they see mortgage rates going down and listings going up.
The key word is “if.”
“Looking ahead to 2024, we anticipate mortgage interest rates to settle in the 6% range, which will attract even more buyers into the market, especially come spring,” said Jeanette Schneider, president of Re-Max of Southeastern Michigan.
“Current homeowners who held onto their home due to a favorable interest rate may decide their interest rate isn’t worth keeping a home that no longer meets their needs, and that should bring a bit more inventory to the market.”
Adds Karen Kage, chief executive officer of Realcomp II Ltd., Michigan’s largest multiple listing service: “We are hopeful for interest rates to continue to trend downward in the new year and consumer confidence levels to rise. As we stand today and look ahead, those are, perhaps, the biggest factors in determining what we might see in 2024.”
Nationally, industry analysts and veterans offer a range of predictions for the upcoming year. Among those:
• Buying a new home will remain expensive, according to Zillow, while Redfin said the median sale price could retreat by 1% in 2024
• The market will still be challenging for first-time homebuyers, but an influx of new apartment units could help manage inflation, according to Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors
• Sales of existing homes will rebound in 2025, with home-buying costs leveling off in the second half of 2024, according to investment banker Goldman Sachs
• In Michigan, tech startup real estate tracker Houzeo predicted home sellers will return to the market in 2024 and interest rates will stabilize in the second half of the year.
Locally, Schneider predicted a “slight uptick in home sales in 2024, along with a steady, but moderate increase, in home prices.”
“As boomers consider downsizing, we expect to see more cash offers in the market, providing a challenge for first-time buyers,” she said.
The Press & Guide asked area real estate specialists — with a combined experience of more than seven decades — to size up the market for the next year.
Interviewed for this story are:
• Susie Armiak, Realtor, MBA Realty Powered by Real Estate One, Grosse Ile, three years experience as a licensed Realtor and more than 25 years as a residential home builder
• Eric Blaine, associate broker and branch manager, Dearborn Office, Real Estate One, 10 years experience
• Tracey Solomon, Realtor, Re/Max Masters, Davis/Solomon Realty Group, Flat Rock, more than four years experience
• Maria Starkey, Realtor, Starkey Team, MBA Realty, Grosse Ile, 24 years experience. Also contributing: Michael Starkey, Realtor
• Benjamin Welch, associate broker, Century 21 Curran & Oberski, Dearborn Heights, 18 years experience, including owning and operating Street Rock Management (property management) for five years
Susie Armiak
Eric Blaine
Tracey Solomon
Michael and Maria Starkey
Benjamin Welch
Here are edited excerpts of their comments about the year ahead:
Q: Strong demand and tight inventory have defined the real estate market in 2023. How do you see those factors and others shaping the 2024 home sales market?
Armiak: I believe we will continue to see that same trend. Specifically because the higher interests this past year had many sellers/buyers sitting on the fence and new home construction is still behind the demand.
Blaine: Inventory has begun to rise in many markets and is expected to continue that trend in 2024. We expect demand to remain high, as well, and rising inventory will help.
Solomon: Demand is still outpacing supply. Unless this changes, we can expect more of the same seller-weighted market. Election years are historically slower as buyers and sellers may feel unsure about changing economic policy. Post-election, the market typically stabilizes. I suspect that if demand remains high and inventory low, we may not see that expected slowdown. It would be offset by the continued supply/demand pressure.
Starkey: The current market of strong demand and tight inventory is expected to continue into 2024. More buyers than houses continue to be the trend. This is keeping prices in the Downriver market on the high end for homes that are well-maintained and updated. The year ahead will likely continue to be a seller’s market. Homes in need of updating or with deferred maintenance tend to sit on the market longer, resulting in lower noncompeting offers.
Welch: Predicting the 2024 housing market is like forecasting the weather in Michigan – it’s an assumption with a dash of optimism. If interest rates remain the same, the days a home is on the market will continue to increase.
Q: Mortgage interest rates exceeded 7% in 2023. Where do you see mortgage rates in 2024 and how will that affect sales?
Armiak: The most recent Fed meeting stated they would be dropping interest rates three times in 2024 and we are already noticing the benefits of the recently lowered rate, currently at 6.6% for a 30-year fixed rate. (That rate may vary for buyers based on credit score, income and down payment amount.) This rate drop will entice sellers and buyers to make their move. My advice is the sooner the better because it’s going to be crowded in the marketplace once again. Be prepared to make swift and decisive decisions.
Blaine: Rates have held steady for a while and even declined slightly. I expect rates to hold somewhat steady in 2024, allowing more consumers to get off the fence and jump back in the market.
Solomon: Mortgage rates seem to be slowly dropping, which is great news for buyers and sellers. If rates continue to decline, more buyers will enter the market and demand will (again) increase. That will mean a continued shortage of homes and continued pressure on buyers to offer incentives to encourage sellers to accept their offers (fewer contingencies, appraisal guarantees, etc.)
Starkey: Interest rates are anticipated to come down into the 6% range in 2024, which likely will bring more buyers into the market. This may encourage more sellers to list their homes for sale. However, I expect home values will stay steady as demand for homes is expected to continue.
Welch: Increasing interest rates have been a major topic of discussion this year. It appears the Federal Reserve is done with rate hikes and Fannie Mae announced that interest rates could drop into the 6% range by the second quarter. If that happens, I expect a flurry of buyers to hit the market and for home prices to continue to rise.
Q: What is your best advice to potential home sellers for 2024?
Armiak: Connect with an experienced Realtor now to generate your personal marketing strategy. There are multiple items that need to be addressed prior to listing your home. Being prepared will put you in the best position to achieve your goals.
Blaine: It is a great time to sell. Values are up and demand is high.
Solomon: Once you’ve found an agent you trust, listen to their advice. Prepare your home for sale, but don’t overdo it. Timing is everything. Waiting to list until it’s perfect can cost you thousands. Consult your listing agent to prioritize your timing and task list. Utilize a pricing strategy that’s proven effective.
Starkey: Consider taking care of any potential deferred maintenance that could bring down home value. Also, be proactive by having a private home inspection done in advance to address any issues that may come up in a buyer’s private home inspection. This can reduce obstacles throughout the transaction. Last, minimize clutter, reduce excess furnishing that may make the space look smaller and — most importantly — provide a clean home for buyers to tour.
Welch: My advice is to hire a professional so you know all of your options. A professional Realtor will provide guidance, resources and a proven plan to facilitate the sale.
Q: What is your best advice to potential home buyers in 2024?
Armiak: Connect with an experienced Realtor now and begin the pre-approval process with your mortgage lender. It generally takes three months from start to finish. The more prepared you are, the stronger your chances are of getting the home of your dreams. And remember, you can always refinance, but you can’t retrofit the home appreciation value as they continue to rise at an annual rate of 4.7%, per FHFA reports.
Blaine: With value rising — a trend we expect will continue — now is the time to buy before values rise more. Waiting will only cost more and interest rates will not drop enough to help overcome appreciation.
Solomon: Find an agent you trust and communicate your needs and wants. Be financially prepared; your pre-approval matters. Set a home budget that works for your life, not just your balance sheet. Love to travel? Eat out? Give charitably? Factor that in. Adjust your price point to accommodate. (Yes, I’m suggesting you spend less so you can live more.)
Starkey: Get into the market early. Homes are hitting the market every day — not just in spring. Buyers who get a head start should have less competition than those who wait for more homes to choose from. If potential buyers find a home they love, go for it. If interest rates come down, you can always refinance. There are mortgage companies that offer a “no fee” refinance within the first two years of purchase.
Welch: If you are waiting for interest rates to come down before buying a home, it’s time to rethink your strategy. It is best to buy now because if interest rates drop, the number of buyers competing for the home you want will increase significantly, making it more challenging to buy that home.
Q: What communities do you see as most active for home sales in 2024 and why?
Armiak: I believe all communities will enjoy accelerated activity with the promise of lower interest rates, including those looking for second homes and investment properties. We are already seeing an increase in new listings in what is typically known as a quieter time. However, driving factors will continue to be the usual suspects: marriage, family growth, job change, death and divorce.
Blaine: Southeast Michigan markets, including Dearborn, are going to continue strong sales in 2024.
Solomon: Flat Rock, Woodhaven, Wyandotte and Southgate. All show increased values and searches. “Most active” is a hard metric to use as a measurement. A small community won’t show big sales numbers. However, highly rising values and quick list-to-pending sales dates show they are desirable and likely selling at or above asking with appraisal guarantees. Grosse Ile is a good example.
Starkey: The current market of strong demand and tight inventory is expected to continue into 2024. More buyers than houses continue to be the trend. This is keeping prices in the Downriver market on the high end for homes that are well-maintained and updated. The year ahead will likely continue to be a seller’s market. Homes in need of updating or with deferred maintenance tend to sit on the market longer, resulting in lower noncompeting offers.
Starkey: All Downriver communities will be active for home sales in 2024. The communities with more affordable housing for first-time buyers may see more activity as those buyers get away from renting. Of course, we need homes to come up for sale. Many homeowners are getting older and either moving to warmer climates or looking for less housing maintenance. Investors also like to purchase homes to add to their rental portfolio or to renovate and sell. The “step up” housing may not be as active as many of those homeowners are enjoying 2% to 4% interest rates and are feeling very comfortable with their current housing costs.
Welch: During November in the Downriver area, the number of homes for sale declined by 32% compared with previous months. It’s still a competitive market. With interest floating around 7.5%, there are many buyers just sitting on the bench waiting for rates to come down before they make their move. Imagine what it will be like if, and when, that happens.
Verification, Lien Release Products; Relying on Interest Rate Predictions? STRATMOR Outlook
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Verification, Lien Release Products; Relying on Interest Rate Predictions? STRATMOR Outlook
By: Rob Chrisman
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 11:00 AM
“My dad always said to me, ‘Work until your bank account looks like a phone number’ so I did. Account balance: $9.11.” You can work harder, or you can work smarter. (I have severe doubts about the validity of this clip; it gave me the willies watching it.) Swimming is certainly a competitive sport. Do you have competitors? Most businesses do. Which is a reason that hotels offer free ice, thanks to a hotel chain that began in Memphis, TN. If the Mortgage Bankers Association is right, and volume does pick up some in 2024, that doesn’t mean the competition to do that business is going to go away. Numbers game. 5 calls, 25 a week, one closed loan $4k, two loans $8k. At these rates, less competition. If rates come down, competition for inventory just increases. (Today’s podcast can be found here, and this week’s is sponsored by the STRATMOR Group, the data-driven mortgage advisory. At STRATMOR, insights and knowledge are applied to guide mortgage clients to make sound strategic decisions and take actions that improve their success. Hear an interview with the STRATMOR Group’s Garth Graham on if industry forecasts for a better market should lead to industry optimism.)
Broker and Lender Programs and Software
Servicers know how much work it takes to release a lien once a mortgage has been paid off. That’s why they’re turning to the new Automated Lien ReleaseSM (ALR) capability in the ICE MSP® servicing system to help lighten the load at the end of a loan. ALR combines document creation and automated workflows to streamline the lien release process. It helps with eSigning and eRecording where available (and prints the release package for wet sign where it’s not) to help servicers cut through the delays and release liens faster. Read the press release to see how you can start releasing fully paid liens in days instead of weeks.
Truv is now an approved third-party service provider supporting Freddie Mac Loan Product Advisor® asset and income modeler (AIM) Revolution Mortgage estimates that they can save up to $20,000 in cost on verifications with TRUV over competitors. “Let’s talk about our documentation costs and those giant monopolies that are out there and laughing at customers and increasing prices because they have a particular monopoly. You want to lower your manufacturing costs” said Femi Ayi, EVP Operations. Contact TRUV today to discuss how we can help you with your income, employment, insurance, and asset verifications. Come join us!
Be Wary of Relying on Interest Rate Predictions
I am asked all the time, “Hey Rob, where do you think rates will be in six months?” My answer, after I say that I can’t even predict where I’m going to have lunch tomorrow, is always the same, “Higher, or lower, or possibly the same.” Or sure, one can have a prediction until a ship becomes stuck in the Suez Canal, a ship is attacked in the Red Sea, or a pandemic occurs. A recent STRATMOR blog is titled, “Interest Rates are Like the Weather? Or Like Signs of the Zodiac?”
The interest rate markets have a way of humbling almost all the ‘experts’ and the very first thing you learn in Secondary Marketing is that you shouldn’t take a view on where rates are headed because half the time, you’re wrong anyway. In Q4 of 2022 the arm-chair prognosticators were predicting that we’d see rates come down by the end of 2023. After reaching a peak in October, Treasury rates did come down to where they were at the beginning of 2023. But mortgage rates were well into the 7 percent range.
The Federal Reserve, in its attempts to control inflation and cool a very strong economy, raised fed funds several times in 2023. Throughout the year, however, we heard, inside the world of mortgage banking, opinions expressed that rates will not only come down, but when to expect this to happen. Based upon what data, one should ask, are their views speculative, biased, or just hopeful?
I would challenge these prognosticators as to the reasons why mortgage rates are positioned to fall. What leads them to predict that? I’m sure some opinions are based on fundamentals: Fed raises rates to control inflation, money is taken out of the economy, the economy cools, Fed cuts rates, and mortgages come down to some predicted level. A lot of the predictions I see are not rooted in actuality, but rather rooted in exuberance for mortgage banking.
In the summer of 2023, little of the macro data even hinted at a reduction of short-term interest rates. Inflation, which has been grinding lower, was a tad north of 4 percent with the Federal Reserve’s target set at 2 percent. Economists have modeled that unemployment would need to reach as high as 7 percent in order for inflation to come down to 2 percent… Not a pretty picture. Remember, when an economy ‘slows’ jobs are not created, historically they’re lost.
The Fed was relatively “hawkish” in its monetary policy for the remainder of 2023 until the end. Anyone predicting where interest rates will be in the future would need to start by predicting where the Federal Funds rate NEEDS to be in order to see inflation that’s appealing to the Fed, and then ultimately, HOW LONG rates needs to remain there; when is it warranted to reduce borrowing rates under recessionary fears? These are two almost impossible questions to answer since the number of variables that you need to get right, coupled with unpredictable world events, play such a strong role in forecasting interest rates.
A year from now, rates will either be higher, lower or the same. So, focus on your products and services!
Capital Markets
Ever wondered how to hedge a mortgage pipeline? Hedging one’s mortgage pipeline typically produces the greatest return over long-term macroeconomic cycles, which is why it is considered an essential step in the growth of a mortgage lender. In MCT’s whitepaper, Mortgage Pipeline Hedging 101, their experts explain what hedging is and why it is a valuable strategy for maximizing profitability in the secondary market. The whitepaper also reviews information on moving to mandatory loan sales, the strategy of hedging, the benefits of hedging, and how to determine if you are ready. Download the whitepaper or join MCT’s newsletter for upcoming releases.
Turning to interest rates, what’s that you say? Markets have gotten ahead of the Fed again? Gasp! Yes, markets aren’t looking all that cheerful in the new year. I don’t put much opinion in here, but I’d say it’s because of investors’ own doing. The added potential for interest rates to stay high for some time is forcing investors to continue to unwind optimistic trades placed in late 2023. The Federal Reserve’s policy makers poured water on predictions of early 2024 interest rate cuts, revealed the minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with several voting members seeing the potential for the fed funds rate range to stay at a peak level for longer than the market expects.
Policymakers did acknowledge that we are probably at the peak of rates and that projections show cuts by year-end. Richmond Fed President Barkin cautioned that the potential for more rate hikes remains alive, called a soft landing “increasingly conceivable but in no way inevitable,” and added that any decision on a March cut is a “long way away.” Staff projections point to rate cuts by the end of 2024, but officials do not seem to be supportive of a series of cuts at this time.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting hinted at hard landing concerns amongst board members while recognizing that they could “face a tradeoff between its dual-mandate goals in the period ahead.” Fortunately, there were more indications of optimism about inflation, which is supported by the latest jobs data showing cooling.
U.S. job openings fell in November to 8.79 million in November, the lowest level since early 2021 as fewer workers voluntarily quit and the number of hires fell. People who voluntarily left their jobs as a share of total employment fell to the lowest point since September 2020, signifying that Americans are feeling less confident in their ability to find new jobs or better paying jobs in the current market.
Separately, we also learned yesterday that the December ISM Manufacturing PMI indicated an ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector, but at a slower pace than the previous month. December marked the 14th straight month the PMI reading has been in contractionary territory. The report was not devoid of good market news, as the Prices Index reflected a further easing of inflation pressures.
Today’s calendar sees some early labor market indicators ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls report. Markets have already received December job cuts from Challenger, Gray & Christmas (34,817 cuts in December, down 24 percent from the 45,510 cuts announced in November) as well as ADP employment for November (164k, higher than expected), and initial (202k, down from 218k) and continued (1.855 million) jobless claims. Later today brings the final December S&P Global services PMI, Treasury announcing the details of next week’s mini-Refunding (consisting of $52 billion 3-year notes, $37 billion reopened 10-year notes, and $21 billion 30-year bonds), and Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices worse .125-.250, the 10-year yielding 3.98 after closing yesterday at 3.91 percent, and the 2-year at 4.36 after a spate of employment data.
Employment
It’s a new year and Merchants Bank, is off and running, continuing to leverage its diversified business model to grow market share and assist Merchant’s lending partners. Merchants Bank’s Correspondent channel, offering Non-Delegated and Delegated options, recently hired Liberty Tribe as Sales Executive to help grow TX and the Mid South Region. Liberty along with Dan Hastings, CMB, AMP cover the Mid-South (TX, LA, AR, MO, OK, KS). In addition, Merchants is expanding its Financial Institutions channel by adding a Mini-Correspondent offering to their TPO Wholesale platform. If you are interested in learning more, contact Rob Wilson. On the Retail front, Merchants Bank continues to grow there as well and if you are looking for stability, support and products, they want to hear from you. Contact Ron Berry for more information. Their LO centric platform along with the strength and balance sheet of the bank allows them to expand market share in their regional markets.
Planet Home Lending’s new Vice President, Construction Sales Melony Harpe is paving the way for Planet MLOs to increase their construction loan volume in 2024. Interested in building your construction business? Join Planet and you’ll have support for calls with builders, resolving construction issues, and educating stakeholders. “I want MLOs and retail branches to feel confident and supported in their construction lending efforts,” Harpe said. “My role is to give MLOs the tools and resources needed to navigate the complexities of construction lending and expand their connections with builders.” To lay the foundation for a better 2024, contact VP of Talent Peter Briggs or 949-202-8213; all inquiries will be held in strict confidence.
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There’s an upside to owning and managing properties.
Okay, so you’re thinking about managing your rental property, but you’re not sure if you should handle everything yourself or hire someone to do it for you. Let’s break it down.
According to a survey by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, almost half of the 49.5 million rentals in the U.S. are properties with one-to-four units. Most of these are owned by individuals, and only about 22 percent are professionally managed.
So, if you’re a landlord with a smaller property, chances are you’re the one taking care of things. But what does that really mean for you and your tenants? Let’s dive into the nitty-gritty of managing your property effectively.
What’s property management?
Think of property management as the secret sauce for your success as a landlord. It’s about making sure you’re getting the most out of your rental and handling your investment like a pro. Now, it might sound like a never-ending job, but there are four big things you need to focus on:
Finding and screening tenants
This is like picking the right teammates for your rental squad. You want reliable tenants who’ll treat your place well. So, there’s background checks, credit checks, employment verification – the whole shebang.
Keeping tenants happy
Once you’ve got good tenants, you want to keep them, preferably beyond even a yearly lease. Happy tenants mean steady income for you and years without having to worry about turning over the apartment. So, you need to build a good relationship, fix stuff when it breaks and maybe throw in a little incentive to keep them around.
Drawing up a lease agreement
This is like the rulebook for your rental game. The lease agreement is legally binding, so you want it to be solid. Some landlords get lawyers involved, others rely on experienced property managers to get it right.
Handling the money stuff
This is where you get into the financial side of owning and renting property. Budgeting, forecasting and understanding taxes are all part of the deal.
Why do people try property management as a side hustle?
Renting out properties has always been a favorite way to make some extra cash without doing much. As long as your rent is competitive and you’re not spending more than you’re making, it’s a sweet deal. Plus, in a good market, you can even build up some equity.
But here’s the catch – managing a rental property is not exactly a walk in the park. It involves marketing, managing, dealing with repairs and crunching numbers. That’s why a lot of new landlords end up hiring a property management firm.
Is now a good time to be a landlord?
Well, that depends on where you’re at and what you’re striving to get out of the deal. The rental vacancy rates in the U.S. were at 6.6 percent in the third quarter of 2023, a bit higher than the previous year but still below the long-term average. The rent and interest rates vary across the country, so you’ll need to do some homework on your local market.
The upsides of property management
Working with a property management firm can take a load off your shoulders. They handle things like rent collection, maintenance and dealing with tricky tenants. It’s like having a rental superhero on your team.
Potential downsides of property management
Of course, there’s no such thing as a free lunch. Property management firms charge a fee, usually between 8 and 12 percent of your monthly rent. So, if your place rents for $1,500 a month, you’re looking at shelling out around $150 to the management company. Also, some landlords like to be in the driver’s seat and make all the decisions, so giving up control can be a downside.
What about the tenant’s perspective?
If you’re looking to rent, you might be wondering if it matters whether your landlord is a person or a property manager. Well, it depends on what you’re into. Some folks like the perks that come with big managed communities, while others prefer the charm and personal attention you get from a home owned by an individual.
Should you hire a pro or DIY?
Ultimately, it’s your call. Take a look at your cash flow, monthly income and expenses. Do you want a laid-back income stream, or are you itching to get your hands dirty in property management? If you’re eyeing a real estate empire, a property management firm might be in your future.
In the end, whether you’re the landlord or the tenant, it’s all about finding the sweet spot that works for you.
At Rent., our goal is to be the most efficient digital resource to help people find and live in a place they love. We strive to help renters make informed decisions by providing them with valuable information and advice, including money-saving tips, local guides, HD photos and certified ratings and reviews from actual residents.
We’ve ridden the waves of 1970s revivals, wall-to-wall carpeting, the rise and fall of the Ultrafragola, and bouclé upholstery. When we type “interior design trends 2024” into our crystal balls (or indeed, into Google) what are we likely to find? AD PRO consulted the experts, and 2024 promises to be a year of thoughtfully chosen offbeat colors, a mix-and-match approach to the designs of different time periods, and a return to romanticism, with jewel tones and florals offering a flirty, old-fashioned respite from the onward march of technology.
Stone Fruit Chic: Peach and Apricot
Soft, sweet, and just a bit tart, peach and apricot are the dominant hues in the home trends color forecasts for 2024. Pantone declared Peach Fuzz its color of the year, and Leatrice Eiseman, executive director of the Pantone Color Institute describes it as “a color radiant with warmth and modern elegance.” Gemma Riberti, head of interiors at trend forecasting agency WGSN, notes that her team has had its eyes on orange. In particular, they note its emergence as “a recharging near-bright in the wellness sector” and as a vivacious alternative to traditional pastels. WGSN’s color of 2024, Apricot Crush, “can be easily paired with neutrals and naturals, and is suitable for textiles, glass, bath, and bedroom products” Riberti says, “but you can also work it to create intriguing narratives: offset it with greens, purples, and blues for vibrant contrast.”
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Arrow
The classic technique of selecting chromatic bedfellows from opposite sides of the color wheel is also in Champalimaud Design’s toolkit. Principal Courtney Brannan tells AD PRO that when it comes to interior design trends in 2024, “we are seeing all the possibilities of peach and turquoise tones.” Though these shades have a tropical feel to them, they “can also feel neutral,” she says. Case in point: “At the Ritz-Carlton, Grand Cayman, turquoise creates an amplifying, formal statement surrounding the Silver Palm Bar.” Meanwhile, in New York City’s West Village, an apartment’s peach plaster wall “has a much more understated presence, calmly backgrounding the artful living space around it.”
That’s So Metal
It’s back to the essential elements (literally) for home decor trends in 2024: chrome, steel, and aluminum are suddenly everywhere. Pinterest Predicts 2024 includes a “Hot Metals” board with a distinctly surrealist aesthetic—gleaming surfaces that resemble the shiny sinew of liquid mercury.
David Michon, author of the Substack newsletter For Scale, thinks this is a natural consequence of the early-2020s overload of earth tones. “The desperate search for some kind of warmth in this cold world has exhausted ‘earthy’ browns and ‘meditative’ grays,” he notes. But don’t be too quick to write off these metallic finishes as industrial: “The many stainless-steel explorations of Milan’s Concorde, Harry Nuriev, or Tejumola Butler Adenuga show us that, in fact, steel simply reflects.” In general, says Michon, these metals amplify whatever vibe a room is already giving. With one notable exception: “stainless-steel appliances, which remain overrated.”
House of Hunt founder Holly Hunt concurs, but with a slightly more muted finish: “I foresee bright aluminums and silver gaining popularity in 2024 after years of gold and black dominating metal hardware and accessories,” she tells AD PRO. “However, I tend to avoid metals that are too shiny and prefer the richness of a brushed chrome or nickel, as they give a more polished and sophisticated look.” Adding to the evidence: Earlier this month, Nifembi Marcus Bello presented an eye-catching suite of cast-aluminum furniture at Design Miami.
Dark and Deep: Jewel Tones
The saturated hues of precious gems are giving the palette of 2024 design trends a sense of velvety mystery. According to Rob Natale, chief of design at Sixpenny, this is thanks in part to the recent dominance of neutrals across interiors. “People are rediscovering color in their homes, which is a welcome shift from the all-neutral palette we’ve seen for several years, and jewel tones are at the forefront of that shift,” he says. “It’s a perfect way to incorporate richness, whether as an accent or as the centerpiece for a space since they create such a strong counterpoint to almost any look.” (Heeding their own wisdom, Sixpenny is currently selling furnishings in an array of gem-inspired hues.)