Positioning and Data Deliver Double Whammy For Bonds
By:
Matthew Graham
Mon, Apr 1 2024, 3:54 PM
Positioning and Data Deliver Double Whammy For Bonds
There were no whammies last week as bonds drifted sideways to slightly stronger in a narrow range. The new week/month began with an unpleasant double whammy, unfortunately, due to positioning and economic data. Traders began selling in waves right out of the gate. The first two waves (8am and 8:20am) were best explained by traders closing out last week’s 3.5-day weekend protections and other traders opening new positions for the month of April. Additional selling followed the stronger PMI data (both from S&P and ISM) which included higher price components. Longer-dated Treasuries fared much worse at first, but short-term yields closed the gap a bit by the afternoon. All told, 10yr yields jumped more than 12bps to close just over the 4.32% technical level. MBS lost roughly half a point by 4pm.
ISM Manufacturing PMI
50.3 vs 48.4 f’cast, 47.8 prev
ISM Prices Paid
55.8 vs 52.7 f’cast, 52.5 prev
09:20 AM
Roughly unchanged overnight, but sharply weaker since 8am, especially for the long end of the curve. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 5.6bps at 4.257.
11:03 AM
Bigger sell-off after ISM data. MBS down almost half a point. 10yr up 11.5bps at 4.316.
01:04 PM
Fairly flat at the weakest levels. MBS down a half point. 10yr up 12.5bps at 4.326
Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.
HELOC, 2nd Mortgage, Pre-Qual, LOS, QC Tools, Dept. of Labor, PrimeLending, and Whistleblowing
<meta name="smartbanner:author" content="We now have a native iPhone and Android app. Download the NEW APP”>
This website requires Javascrip to run properly.
HELOC, 2nd Mortgage, Pre-Qual, LOS, QC Tools, Dept. of Labor, PrimeLending, and Whistleblowing
By: Rob Chrisman
Thu, Mar 28 2024, 11:50 AM
Here’s a tip of the day for anyone manning a conference booth: instead of a pen, or mouse pad, how about a locally made treat? Hats off to Aimee, Bobby, and Mark from Byte Software who earlier this week at the TMC event had chocolate-covered Oreos from a local bakery. Technology was a big topic at TMC… Technology thoughts from 50 years ago? Here you go. (There’s definitely a school of thought which believes that the iPhone changed tech overnight. Almost 20 years later, nothing else has come close.) Vendor news seems to be at every conference, and capital markets staff are certainly big users of tech. At the TMC enclave secondary marketing folks often gravitate toward each other, “shooting the breeze” about odds and ends. For the most part, no one thinks they earn a living by making predictions, instead providing accurate information to other managers and owners, and acting as an advisor about loan profitability, leakage, concessions, and margins. Capital markets staff are also involved in LO and executive recruiting efforts, and in developing strong product offerings to help the company be successful. (Found here, this week’s podcasts are sponsored by Stavvy. Stavvy offers a flexible and fully customizable loss mitigation solution. Servicers can easily adapt to regulatory updates and market conditions, providing a seamless, customer-centric digital experience. Today’s has an interview with AmeriCatalyst’s Toni Moss about the Extreme Climate, Housing and Finance Leadership Summit on April 18-19, in Washington, DC.)
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software
“Real estate valuations continue to be complex and ever-evolving, especially today with proposed regulatory changes and unpredictable market dynamics. Creating an effective valuation strategy is vital for lenders to manage risk and streamline operations. Attend our complimentary webinar to learn all about the world of automated valuation models (AVMs). You’ll find out why AVMs are considered a credible, objective option for collateral risk management, how they can help your business (from lead generation and portfolio management to cost reduction and more), and when to use an AVM to address challenges in the current valuation landscape. The webinar hosted by ICE is “When, Why and How AVMs Drive Business Performance” and will be on Wednesday, April 10, at 2 p.m. ET. Save your seat now: register today.
“Step by Step Quality Control Plan Checklist: Comprehensive Guide for Financial Institutions. By following this guide, financial institutions can not only enhance their operational excellence but also strategically minimize their risk exposure. Throughout this comprehensive guide, we dissect each facet of the QC plan, providing valuable insights, practical recommendations, and actionable steps. Our checklist aligns with industry requirements and best practices, ensuring lenders remain steadfast in their commitment to quality within the ever-evolving landscape of financial services. Access Guide.
Many industry vendors talk a good game when it comes to partnering with lenders, but there is a difference between treating a client like a partner and making them feel like a prisoner. Restrictive long-term contracts and financial penalties for not going live or for trying to exit failed implementations are hurting lenders and servicers. These developers make it difficult or impossible for the lender to move to a new, modern system. Lenders deserve better. You won’t get treated that way by MortgageFlex, the creators of the industry’s first cloud-native, unified system for origination and servicing. A re-engineered LOS built by developers that lenders have trusted for 40 years and the industry’s best new software platform operating on the same database makes this the must-see software. See it today.
Why do those in the mortgage space watch the 10-year U.S. Treasury note? Historically, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has been considered a key benchmark for mortgage rates. Mortgage rates, however, are not actually based on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note (as is commonly believed). MCT released a blog, “How the 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Impacts Mortgage Rates” that serves as an excellent primer for how mortgage interest rates respond to moves of the benchmark U.S. Treasury note. The piece discusses why mortgage rates and Treasury yields move together and how bonds are influenced by Treasury yields. With a trusted capital markets partner like MCT, you can rest assured that you will be notified of how economic trends could have the potential to impact your business. Sign up for MCT’s newsletter to receive educational articles like this one and learn more about variables that impact mortgage rates.
Sending your borrowers off on their home search hoping they reach out when they need you is one way to do things. Sending them with a QuickQual that lets them run payment scenarios and generate a letter when they’re ready to submit an offer is another. Check out a sample QuickQual if you’re interested in the latter.
Correspondent and Broker Products
“With spring in the air, Newrez Correspondent is springing into action by adding many exciting enhancements to our product line. We now offer a Closed End Second Mortgage program, Delegated Non-QM for our Smart Series products, and Fannie Mae HomeReady® and Freddie Mac Home Possible® affordable lending mortgage programs including the recent $2500 credits added for qualifying homebuyers. Take advantage of our expansive menu and become a valued customer at Newrez Correspondent by signing up here. You can also reach out to Sarah Johanns to set up a meeting at the Iowa Mortgage Association Conference in Coralville, IA, on April 1 and 2, and Beverly Jordan, Patty Devita, Rebecca Yonaka or John Dubisky at the Great River Conference in Memphis, TN, April 16 through 18. Don’t forget, we would love to meet at the MBA Secondary in New York in May. Set up a meeting here.”
“At Button Finance, we say YES. That is why more and more brokers and correspondent lenders are choosing to fund their HELOANs and HELOCs with Button Finance. Is it the lighting quick turn-times and aggressive pricing, or the limited UW overlays? Can you make up to 5% compensation as a broker or 8% as a correspondent on HELOCs or even originate to our bank statement and investment property programs? The answer is YES, YES, YES, YES, and YES. Available equity is at historical levels, so now is a great time to offer your past and prospective borrowers Button Finance HELOAN or HELOC to pay off high-interest revolving debt. Button Finance programs allow FICO scores as low as 660, CLTVs to 90%, and debt ratios to 50%. We have excellent correspondent offerings as well. Correspondents typically make $18,500 on a $250k HELOC closed in 10 calendar days without an appraisal. Contact us today.”
Department of Labor and Whistleblowers
The U.S. Department of Labor has ordered a former senior vice president and two managers employed by PrimeLending to pay $35,000 in emotional damages and the legal fees of two California employees who the company fired illegally after they reported a branch manager pressured them to pass on fees to loan applicants caused by the company’s internal processing delays.
“Investigators with the department’s Occupational Safety and Health Administration found the nationwide lender violated whistleblower provisions in the Consumer Financial Protection Act by terminating the employees who raised their concerns with a regional manager and senior vice president of Human Resources.
“’Employees who report potential consumer fraud are protected by federal law against retaliation of any kind. Under the Consumer Financial Protection Act’s whistleblower provisions, managers can be fined personally for retaliation,’ explained OSHA Regional Administrator James D. Wulff in San Francisco. ‘In this case, OSHA fined three PrimeLending managers for trying to prevent workers’ concerns from coming to light. The U.S. Department of Labor will not tolerate retaliatory actions against workers exercising their rights and those responsible for such actions will be held accountable.’”
“In addition to payment of personal damages, OSHA ordered PrimeLending to pay an undisclosed amount in lost back wages and interest to the employees. The company must also expunge the employment records of both employees, post an anti-retaliation notice at all its branches and train its employees about their rights under the Consumer Financial Protection Act.
“The company and the managers sanctioned may appeal OSHA’s order to the department’s Office of Administrative Law Judges.
“OSHA enforces the whistleblower provisions of the Consumer Financial Protection Act and 24 other statutes protecting employees who report violations of various motor vehicle safety, commercial motor carrier, airline, consumer product, environmental, financial reform, food safety, healthcare reform, nuclear, pipeline, public transportation agency, railroad, maritime, securities, tax, antitrust, and anti-money laundering laws and for engaging in other related protected activities. For more information on whistleblower protections, visit OSHA’s Whistleblower Protection Programs webpage.”
Capital Markets
Not a whole lot to report from yesterday. Consumer confidence was little changed in March with consumers remaining concerned about elevated price levels, according to the Conference Board. Consumers expressed more concern about the U.S. political environment compared to prior months. The market saw a bit more buying than in previous days in reaction to a strong $43 billion 7-year note offering.
Since we can’t go a day without talking about the Fed, you’ve probably noted that some Federal Open Market Committee voters ratcheted back their estimates to two rate cuts in 2024 from the group consensus of three 25 basis point rate cuts. However, of potentially more interest to the mortgage industry is the central bank’s massive balance sheet of Treasuries and Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) that remains from the past 15-ish years of aggressive experimental monetary policy.
The Fed has been open about wanting to eventually get back to an all-Treasury balance sheet, so it is expected that the central bank will not halt the run-off of Agency MBS that has averaged about $16 billion per month over the last six months. The central bank is expected to reinvest those proceeds into Treasuries, so where will demand for Agency MBS come from? Hopefully, domestic banks. U.S. domestically chartered commercial banks’ total holdings of securities as a percentage of their balance sheet, and Agency MBS in particular, has ticked up over the last six months. This trend should continue as long as the relative value of Agency MBS remains favorable compared to investment-grade corporates and Treasuries.
Tomorrow the markets are closed, and today brings a busy schedule in terms of data ahead of a SIFMA recommended early close, which also happens to be month and quarter-end, ahead of Good Friday. There will be a commentary tomorrow that includes the PCE reading, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. This morning we’ve had the final look at Q4 GDP (3.4 percent, higher than previously but viewed as old news) and weekly jobless claims (210k, 1.819 million continuing claims). The core PCE deflator was (3.3) versus an expectation of unchanged at 2.1 percent. Later today brings Chicago PMI for March, Michigan sentiment, pending home sales for February, KC Fed manufacturing, several Treasury auctions of short duration bills, and Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey.
We begin the day with Agency MBS prices little changed from Wednesday, and little changed all week! The 10-year is yielding 4.23 after closing yesterday at 4.20 percent and the 2-year is at 4.62… little movement after a salvo of news.
Jobs
Canopy Mortgage in National spotlight: Massive sales growth, onboarding an average of 1 producing loan officer every other day! What’s attracting LO’s to move in droves? Canopy is “Giving Loan Officers the Power to Grow” – read full article on forbes.com. Canopy’s magnetic growth is coming from relationships, referrals and jaw-dropping tech demos. If you haven’t heard about Canopy yet …ask a friend! Canopy is building the future of mortgage lending through relationships and innovative mortgage tech, and is hiring producing LOs nationwide (except NY). Don’t miss out! Schedule a Tech Demo, or simply look at your numbers with Josh Neumarker today 888-696-9076.
Planet Home Lending, a national mortgage lender, servicer, and asset manager, has hired Andy Insua as Regional Sales Manager for the Southeast. Congratulations!
Download our mobile app to get alerts for Rob Chrisman’s Commentary.
Share via Social Media:
All social media shares will include the image and link to this page.
Cara Walton, representing a Michigan consulting firm focused on small manufacturers, spoke of a profit squeeze. Higher costs across the board, from borrowing to raw materials and labor, are forcing some companies to hit the brakes on crucial equipment upgrades. She explained that the combination of expensive financing and slowing demand was creating a double … [Read more…]
Today, I have a fun guest post from my friend Cody Berman. Cody is a digital nomad who quit his corporate job to pursue entrepreneurship full-time. He started selling digital products in 2018 and became hooked after earning $700+ in one week. He now helps other entrepreneurs and creators monetize their businesses through digital products….
Today, I have a fun guest post from my friend Cody Berman. Cody is a digital nomad who quit his corporate job to pursue entrepreneurship full-time. He started selling digital products in 2018 and became hooked after earning $700+ in one week. He now helps other entrepreneurs and creators monetize their businesses through digital products. He’s been featured here on Making Sense of Cents before and you can find that article here – How I Make Money Selling Printables On Etsy.
—
I used to be a chronic side hustler. At one point I had 20+ income streams. Sounds great, right? Except it wasn’t.
I was all over the place, trying every side hustle imaginable – delivering UberEats, editing podcasts, building websites, selling discs, running affiliate campaigns, writing articles, buffing boats, you name it. But most of the time, I felt like I was stuck trading my time for money.
Do you want to make money selling printables online? This free training will give you great ideas on what you can sell, how to get started, the costs, and how to make sales.
Don’t get me wrong, the money was great for some of these side hustles, but if I didn’t work I didn’t get paid. At one point, I made $500 for writing a single blog article! But once the article was delivered and the invoice was paid, I had to hunt for my next gig and turn in the work to make my next dollar.
At one point, I co-founded a disc golf manufacturing business. I thought that this business was going to be my golden ticket. For those who don’t know, disc golf is similar to ball golf, except instead of hitting a ball into a hole with a club, you are throwing a plastic “disc” into a basket. Our company manufactured those discs.
We started scaling pretty quickly and within two years we were selling our products in all 50 states and 20+ countries. On paper, everything looked amazing. But behind the scenes, we constantly had product issues, shipping delays, mismanaged inventory, and everything that else could possibly go wrong with a physical product business.
I was feeling tired and burnt out and looking for something new.
Fast forward to early 2019 and my friend Julie, another side hustler, told me that she had been selling printables on Etsy. She had spent about 60 hours creating a bunch of digital products (a.k.a. printables) and had made over $5,000 so far. The words “so far” were the ones that got me hooked.
Unlike my my physical products business where each unit had to be manufactured, quality tested, packaged, and shipped, these “digital products” sounded different. By the way Julie was describing it, I could create a digital product once and keep making money from it without much additional effort. This sounded ten times better than all of the side hustles I had tried (and way more passive).
The only problem was that I didn’t really have any clue what a “printable” was… and I had never even been on Etsy. And at this point, you might be thinking the same thing.
What exactly are printables? Basically, they’re digital files that customers can download and print at home. Think cards, planners, calendars, games, gift tags – the possibilities are endless!
The best part? Once you’ve created a printable, you can sell it an unlimited number of times without ever having to worry about restocking inventory or shipping costs.
Now back to my story. Even though I didn’t really know how to create printables, or what printables to sell, or anything about graphic design for that matter, I decided to give it a shot. If Julie could do it, I could do it, right?
Wrong.
My first ~20 printables were absolutely terrible, but I listed them on Etsy anyway. You’ll never guess what happened next. I got a whopping… zero sales.
OK, maybe you did guess that.
Between my zero graphic design skills, lack of product research, and unfamiliarity with the Etsy platform, I definitely wasn’t setting any sales records.
But after some trial and error – well, a lot of trial and error – I managed to come up with some pretty decent-looking printables. I focused on creating seasonal products, a strategy I often recommend to beginners. And let me tell you, it paid off big time.
In December and January, I created dozens of Valentine’s Day printables since I had heard that it was one of the biggest holidays on Etsy. Some of my designs included Valentine’s cards, love coupons, editable love notes, custom photo cards, and more.
And finally, after months of crickets, it seemed like the algorithm was working in my favor, with tons of people searching for Valentine’s gifts and cards for their loved ones. The real excitement started on February 9th, just five days before the big holiday.
I remember that week vividly because while all this was happening, I was actually skiing in Lake Tahoe. And on February 9th, when I checked my phone in the ski lodge at lunch, I had made over $100… that day.
The entire week continued to be extremely profitable and I ended the week with $718 in sales from just a handful of products that took me a couple of hours to create. It was the first time I experienced true passive income. The only part that wasn’t passive was answering the occasional customer question, which took less than five minutes per day from my phone.
That experience was a game-changer for me. It was the moment I realized the true potential of selling digital products on Etsy. And I owe a big thank you to Julie, who introduced me to this side hustle and helped me see that I could create products that continued to make money long after I’d created them.
Let me be clear – building a successful Etsy shop isn’t a get-rich-quick scheme. There’s work involved in getting your shop up and running, from creating high-quality designs to optimizing your listings and promoting your products. But trust me when I say that the effort is worth it.
Once your Etsy shop is up and running, it can become a passive income machine. Your printables can sell for years and years after you list them. That next Valentine’s Day, I was in Aruba for a wedding event, and the same exact designs that earned me $718 in Lake Tahoe, earned me hundreds again that next year.
These Valentine’s Day printables have been sitting in my Etsy shop for years at this point, and they continue to make sales every single year. Compared to selling physical products, delivering UberEats on a bike, editing podcasts, or writing blog posts, this side hustle is so much more passive.
If you want to learn more, I recommend signing up for the Free Training Workshop: Earn Money Selling Printables. This free workshop will teach you how to get started selling printables. You will learn different ideas for printables to sell, how to get started on Etsy, and how to actually make sales.
Are you interested in selling printables online? What questions do you have?
Do you want to make money selling printables online? This free training will give you great ideas on what you can sell, how to get started, the costs, and how to make sales.
Recommended reading: Gold City Ventures Review: E-Printables Course Review
Hedging, Client Retention Tools; STRATMOR on the ICE 24 Event; MBA on the NAR Settlement; Dual Compensation
<meta name="smartbanner:author" content="We now have a native iPhone and Android app. Download the NEW APP”>
This website requires Javascrip to run properly.
Hedging, Client Retention Tools; STRATMOR on the ICE 24 Event; MBA on the NAR Settlement; Dual Compensation
By: Rob Chrisman
7 Hours, 19 Min ago
I saw a sign recently: “Psychic Fair Cancelled Due to Unforeseen Circumstances.” No one can see into the future, or can read minds, and communication is always a good thing. But if I had to predict something, mortgage-related fees (what is disclosed, and how, at closing) will be something in which the CFPB would become increasingly interested. The CFPB believes that “junk” fees are driving up housing costs, and wants to hear from you. Regarding costs, many lenders are wondering about the proposed NAR settlement, its costs, and even dual licensing. Will we see an increase in the number of dual licenses with the recent NAR settlement, and what about the states that do not allow a person to maintain both NMLS licenses and Realtor Licenses simultaneously? Attorney Brian Levy addressed dual compensation in one of his Musings. (Found here, this week’s podcast is sponsored by Visio Lending. Visio is the nation’s premier lender for buy and hold investors with over 2.5 billion closed loans for single-family rental properties, including vacation rentals. Today’s has a roundtable discussion from the ICE conference in Vegas with Brett Brumley, Matt Kovac, Justin Demola, and Rob Chrisman on automation and its benefits to lenders and vendors.)
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software
Truv Teams Up with Fannie Mae to Revolutionize Borrower Verifications! We’re thrilled to announce that Truv is now a conditionally authorized report supplier for mortgage lenders using Fannie Mae’s Desktop Underwriter® (DU®) validation service. With Truv’s Day 1 Certainty support lenders can reduce risk of fraud and buybacks by leveraging real-time data directly from the source, lower costs by reverifying a borrower’s income and employment data at no additional expense, accelerate growth by increasing pull-through rates and closing loans faster and improve productivity by reducing time spent collecting data to underwrite loans. Learn more here!
With the recent commissions’ settlement, loan officers must now reevaluate their engagement strategies with their agent network. The key ingredient in long-term success boils down to something so simple, yet very impactful: building closer relationships with homeowners. That’s why loan officers are turning to the Milestones “Super App,” a powerful platform that delivers white-labeled portals to manage the home, build wealth, and everything in between. The value loan officers can bring to homeowners NOW, in close partnership with their agent network, can help them build profitable, long-term relationships for years. Want to start serving your homeowners better? Talk to Sales.
STRATMOR on Customer Experience
When it comes to customer experience, STRATMOR Group covered all angles this week at ICE Experience 24 in Las Vegas. STRATMOR advisors were a common sight on the conference stages, with Brett McCracken sharing his characteristic bombshell secret shopping insights, Mike Seminari revealing some eye-opening truths about the critical importance of having a clean and simple loan process, Sue Woodard challenging tech vendors to look for ways to add value not only to the lender, but the borrower as well, and Garth Graham encouraging lenders to take a hard look at their compensation models to make sure they “get what they pay for.” Looking to refine your organization’s strategies? Contact STRATMOR today.
MBA’s Role in NAR Settlement
No one wants to harm the fragile first-time home buyer, or further dampen the activity in real estate sales and inventory. The Mortgage Bankers Association weighed in on last week’s announced proposed National Association of Realtors’ settlement. Remember that, despite the furor of news and conjecture, the Settlement is subject to court approval although the MBA states we’re likely see changes to go into effect mid-July 2024. “There is also a possibility that the Department of Justice may weigh in on whether the settlement goes far enough, which could result in changes, delays, or abandonment of the settlement. NAR will continue to update its site with the latest information.
“The MBA will work with NAR and other trade associations to limit possible disruption from the settlement and ensure that its provisions are not overly disruptive to home financing. It is important to understand how a change to buyer paid commissions might impact seller contribution limits and we have already advocated for the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) to lift its prohibition on veterans’ payment for the buyer side agent.
“The proposed nationwide class of home sellers has reached a $418 million joint settlement with NAR that will resolve claims in some of the antitrust class actions against NAR. The Settlement with NAR is in addition to prior settlements (totaling $208.5 million) reached with defendants Anywhere Real Estate, RE/MAX, and Keller Williams.
“Under the terms of the Settlement, NAR will be responsible for paying $418 million in four annual installments along with interest, for the benefit of home sellers across the United States, as well as $3 million toward settlement notices. It also provides for far-reaching changes to NAR’s rules governing real estate broker compensation and the MLS system.
“NAR’s release does not cover agents affiliated with HomeServices of America and its related companies as they are still litigating. And firms that have a total transaction volume of $2 billion or above are not covered by the Settlement. However, the Settlement creates a framework for these larger firms to opt-in to the Settlement to resolve actual or potential claims against them. A firm that wishes to opt-in to the settlement route must deposit into an escrow account an amount equal to 0.0025 multiplied by its average annual ‘Total Transaction Volume’ over the most recent four calendar years and agree to not to engage in the certain prohibited practices. It is unclear at this stage whether the larger firms will in fact opt-in to the Settlement. A similar opt- in provision exists for independent MLS, with the payment being 100 multiplied by their 2023 subscribers.
“In the Settlement, NAR has agreed to various practice changes which are to begin 120 days after the plaintiffs seek preliminary approval of the Settlement. It will eliminate and prohibit any requirement by NAR and NAR MLSs that listing brokers or sellers must make offers of compensation to cooperating brokers or other buyer representatives, and prohibit and eliminate any requirement that such offers, if made, must be blanket, unconditional or unilateral (effectively, eliminating its rules requiring “cooperative” commissions as a condition of listing a home on the MLS).
“It requires MLS participants working with a buyer enter into a written agreement before the buyer tours a home with the following: (a) specify and conspicuously disclose the amount or rate of compensation to be received or how the amount will be determined, (b) the amount of compensation must be objectively ascertainable… It cannot be open-ended such as ‘buyer broker compensation shall be whatever amount the seller is offering to the buyer,’ (c) MLS participants may not receive compensation for brokerage services from any source that exceeds the amount or rate agreed to in the agreement with the buyer.”
The language, “Prohibits NAR MLS participants, subscribers, other real estate brokers, other real estate agents, and sellers from making offers of compensation on the multiple listing service to cooperating brokers or other buyer representatives (either directly or through buyers) or disclosing on the multiple listing service listing broker compensation or total brokerage compensation. It eliminates and prohibits any requirements conditioning participation or membership in a NAR MLS on offering or accepting offers of cooperative compensation.
“Agree not to create, facilitate, or support any non-MLS mechanism for listing brokers or sellers to make offers of compensation to cooperating brokers or other buyer representatives. Require NAR MLS participants acting for sellers to conspicuously disclose to sellers and obtain seller approval for any payment or offer of payment that the listing broker or seller will make to another broker, agent, or other representative acting for buyers. And require MLS participants to disclose to prospective sellers and buyers in conspicuous language that broker commissions are not set by law and are fully negotiable.”
The MBA warned that cooperative commission is not banned; listing brokers and sellers can continue to offer compensation for buyer broker services, just not through the MLS. And the Settlement does not prevent sellers from offering seller concessions through the MLS (e.g., for general buyer closing costs), so long as such concessions are not limited to or conditioned on the use of or payment to a buyer broker.”
The settlement does nothing, unfortunately, to address incompetent, inexperienced real estate agents that do little to promote professionalism, often a complaint from the agent representing the opposite side of the transaction.
Capital Markets
As we mark four years since the big shake-ups caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the mortgage industry continues to navigate its aftermath, especially in the MBS market. Despite the challenges, there’s been remarkable progress and resilience shown. Vice Capital Markets is one company that has stood firm in the face of adversity, consistently providing steadfast support and innovative strategies to its clients throughout these uncertain times. The company recently shared this video reflecting on the tremendous impact of the pandemic on our industry. If, like me, you’ll be on-site next week at TMC’s The Mane Event in Louisville, Vice Capital President Troy Baars will be on hand to chat about all things capital markets. Drop him a line if you’d like to meet.
Yesterday granted market participants more time to digest the results of this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting. As a reminder, the Fed maintained the fed funds rate at current levels and signaled that it would begin cutting this year, which kicked off a post-meeting rally in markets. There’s now more confidence that rate cuts are coming in the second half of the year than there was prior to the meeting. The revised “dot-plot” continues to show the majority of the committee believes that three 25 basis point cuts is the most likely outcome before we close the books on 2024. That said, there were more votes for two 2024 cuts than there were in December.
As far as economic releases, yesterday’s release of flash Manufacturing and Services PMI reading from major economies showed that most pointing to a continued contraction in both sectors. The U.S. was an outlier as both Manufacturing and Services PMI readings indicated an ongoing expansion. Those reports contributed to the early pressure, as did another solid jobless claims reading and a strong existing home sales report.
But existing home sales easily beat expectations and rose 9.5 percent during February. Although historically slow, the 4.38-million-unit pace marks the strongest pace since February 2023, and is likely due to the dip in mortgage rates that occurred at the beginning of the year. Inventory remains tight, but a small swell of new supply hitting the market was another factor driving the faster sales pace.
There is no notable data scheduled for release today but plenty of Fed speakers no doubt reinforcing the message from earlier this week: Chair Powell, Governor Bowman, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr, and Atlanta Fed President Bostic are all scheduled to deliver remarks. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices better .125-.250 than Thursday night, the 10-year yielding 4.22 after closing yesterday at 4.27 percent, and the 2-year at 4.60.
Jobs
“At Evergreen Home Loans, we’re proud of our strong female leadership, with 68 percent of our team being women, including 11 branch managers. We’re on a mission to expand our team with talented Loan Officers who are eager to work in an empowering, supportive environment. Here, you’ll join a group of industry-leading professionals who thrive under the guidance of skilled women leaders. We offer a nurturing space for growth, innovation, and success. If you’re a Loan Officer aspiring to excel in a company that values diversity and leadership, Evergreen Home Loans is your destination. Join us and shape a brighter future in the mortgage industry. To view all job listings, visit Mortgage Jobs.”
“Looking to thrive in the mortgage game? Northpointe Bank has been crushing it for 25 years, leading the charge with a robust product line of traditional, non-QM, and portfolio loans. We’re looking for loan officers and sales teams to join our retail lending team nationwide. Why us? Because we’re not just any bank! Northpointe is like finding a unicorn in the mortgage world: a bank with home lending at its core. Plus, since we’re a bank, there’s no need for loan officers to deal with pesky state licensing. You can originate in all 50 states on day one! Ready to join our winning team? Contact Cody Archer today to hear why Northpointe Bank should be your home.”
As mentioned in yesterday’s Commentary, AmeriHome’s Chief Operating Officer John Hedlund is leaving the company. Also effective April 7, Chief Risk Officer Mark Miller, and Chief Information Officer Dave Andersen, will also be leaving AmeriHome. AmeriHome (the nation’s largest bank-owned correspondent investor) has promoted the following, effective today: Anthony Ho, Managing Director, Chief Credit Officer, Greg McElroy, Managing Director, Chief Operations Officer, Steve Kolker, Managing Director, Correspondent Sales, and Peter Roeske, Managing Director, Retail Lending. AmeriHome Mortgage is a Western Alliance Bank company.
Download our mobile app to get alerts for Rob Chrisman’s Commentary.
Share via Social Media:
All social media shares will include the image and link to this page.
In the heart of the Midwest, Michigan’s cities are a haven for renters seeking a blend of historical heritage and contemporary living. This ApartmentGuide article takes you from the industrial prowess of Detroit to the artistic alleys of Grand Rapids, showcasing the state’s diverse rental markets. Michigan’s urban landscapes are as varied as its lakeshores, offering renters a unique opportunity to find their perfect home. Michigan presents an appealing mix of opportunities for work, play, and relaxation. Here are the major cities in Michigan to consider moving to.
1. Detroit, Michigan
Population: 639,111 Average rent for a one-bedroom apartment: $1,290 Average rent for a two-bedroom apartment: $1,631 Detroit, MI apartments for rent Detroit, MI homes for sale
Detroit is known for its colorful arts scene, iconic music heritage, and innovative dining experiences. Residents enjoy access to world-class museums, waterfront parks, and a growing economy. The annual Detroit Electronic Music Festival, International Jazz Festival and Dally in the Alley are highlights each summer, along with the North American International Auto Show in the fall. Detroit’s comeback story is filled with community spirit and an entrepreneurial drive, making it a dynamic place to call home.
2. Grand Rapids, Michigan
Population: 198,917 Average rent for a one-bedroom apartment: $1,372 Average rent for a two-bedroom apartment: $1,612 Grand Rapids, MI apartments for rent Grand Rapids, MI homes for sale
Grand Rapids is celebrated for its vibrant arts scene and numerous breweries. The city boasts an array of cultural festivals, museums, and theaters, alongside lush parks and recreational areas. The Pulaski Days festival each fall is popular with locals. Its economy is diverse, with strong healthcare, education, and manufacturing sectors. Grand Rapids’ friendly community and high quality of life make it an appealing destination for residents.
3. Warren, Michigan
Population: 139,387 Average rent for a one-bedroom apartment: $949 Average rent for a two-bedroom apartment: $1,090 Warren, MI apartments for rent Warren, MI homes for sale
Warren is known for its strong industrial base, particularly in the automotive sector, and offers a variety of employment opportunities at employers like GM and Stellantis. The city provides a suburban feel with plenty of parks, shopping centers, and family-friendly activities. Warren’s commitment to community and economic development is evident in its well-maintained neighborhoods and active civic life, making it a stable and welcoming place to live.
4. Sterling Heights, Michigan
Population: 134,346 Average rent for a one-bedroom apartment: $1,240 Average rent for a two-bedroom apartment: $1,592 Sterling Heights, MI apartments for rent Sterling Heights, MI homes for sale
Sterling Heights offers a blend of cultural diversity, community events, and lush green spaces. The city is known for its excellent schools, serene neighborhoods, and active local government. Residents enjoy a variety of shopping and dining options, along with easy access to Detroit’s amenities. Sterling Heights’ commitment to quality of life and community engagement makes it a desirable place for many.
5. Ann Arbor, Michigan
Population: 123,851 Average rent for a one-bedroom apartment: $1,960 Average rent for a two-bedroom apartment: $2,040 Ann Arbor, MI apartments for rent Ann Arbor, MI homes for sale
Ann Arbor is renowned for its educational institutions, particularly the University of Michigan, which drives the city’s economy and cultural scene. The city boasts a lively arts culture, numerous parks, and a strong commitment to sustainability. Ann Arbor’s diverse culinary scene and vibrant downtown area offer residents a high quality of life in a dynamic and intellectually stimulating environment.
6. Lansing, Michigan
Population: 112,537 Average rent for a one-bedroom apartment: $952 Average rent for a two-bedroom apartment: $1,142 Lansing, MI apartments for rent Lansing, MI homes for sale
Lansing, the state capital, is a hub of political activity, education, and culture. The city is home to several higher education institutions, contributing to its vibrant, youthful atmosphere. Lansing’s diverse community is reflected in its wide range of cultural festivals, restaurants, and arts venues. The annual Common Ground Festival draws big name musicians and thousands of visitors to downtown Lansing each year. The city’s parks and riverfront offer residents and visitors alike opportunities for outdoor recreation and relaxation.
7. Dearborn, Michigan
Population: 109,976 Average rent for a one-bedroom apartment: $1,460 Average rent for a two-bedroom apartment: $1,427 Dearborn, MI apartments for rent Dearborn, MI homes for sale
Dearborn is celebrated for its automotive history and cultural diversity, most notably as the headquarters of the Ford Motor Company. The city offers a unique blend of suburban and urban living, with numerous museums, parks, and community events. Dearborn’s strong sense of community and cultural heritage make it an exciting place to live, with a variety of dining and shopping experiences reflecting its diverse population.
8. Livonia, Michigan
Population: 95,535 Average rent for a one-bedroom apartment: $1,142 Average rent for a two-bedroom apartment: $1,320 Livonia, MI apartments for rent Livonia, MI homes for sale
Livonia offers a friendly atmosphere with its excellent schools, parks, and recreational facilities. The city is known for its well-maintained neighborhoods and strong community involvement. The Rosedale Gardens Historic District is a particularly charming area of the town. Livonia’s strategic location provides easy access to Detroit’s metropolitan amenities while maintaining a small-town feel. Its diverse economy and active local government contribute to a high quality of life for its residents.
9. Troy, Michigan
Population: 87,294 Average rent for a one-bedroom apartment: $1,452 Average rent for a two-bedroom apartment: $2,023 Troy, MI apartments for rent Troy, MI homes for sale
Troy is a bustling city with a strong business community, high-end shopping centers, and a reputation for excellent schools. The city combines suburban comfort with access to urban conveniences, making it a popular choice for residents. Troy celebrates its history and culture and residents can visit the Troy Historic Village for a glimpse of the city through the years. Its diverse population and wide range of cultural and recreational activities contribute to its dynamic and inclusive community atmosphere.
10. Westland, Michigan
Population: 85,420 Average rent for a one-bedroom apartment: $1,017 Average rent for a two-bedroom apartment: $1,225 Westland, MI apartments for rent Westland, MI homes for sale
Westland is known for its community-oriented approach, offering a variety of parks, libraries, and cultural events that cater to residents. The city’s retail and dining options provide convenience and diversity, while its neighborhoods are characterized by their friendliness. Westland’s commitment to community development and recreational opportunities make it a welcoming place to live.
Methodology:The population data was retrieved from the United States Census Bureau for 2021, while the average rental data was sourced from Rent.com in March 2024.
Looking solely at the end of day trading levels in the bond market, we could conclude that we are once again deprived of any meaningful motivations for momentum. That’s partially true in the sense that today’s events were not “top tier.” Nonetheless, we can still make a case for some relevance. After all, bonds were definitely stronger ahead of this morning’s data. The initial weakness could be coincidental, but the 9:45am reaction to the PMI data was fairly clear in terms of volume and volatility. That’s interesting considering it was mostly in line with forecasts. Some analysts suggested the focus was on the “confidence” metric at a 22 month high in the services sector and that’s a fair take if we’re trying to justify the reaction. In the bigger picture, we’re waiting on next Friday’s PCE data (more like waiting on Monday since the bond market is closed next Friday).
Philly Fed Index
3.2 vs -2.3 f’cast, 5.2 prev
Philly Fed Prices
3.7 vs 16.6 prev
Jobless Claims
210k vs 215k f’cast, 212k prev
Continued Claims
1807k vs 1803k prev
S&P Services PMI
51.7 vs 52.0 f’cast, 52.3 prev
S&P Manufacturing PMI
52.5 vs 51.7 f’cast, 52.2 prev
Existing Home Sales
4.38m vs 3.94m f’cast, 4.0m prev
08:41 AM
After econ data, 10yr up to 4.247 (still down 3 bps on the day). MBS still up 5 ticks (.16) on the day.
09:58 AM
MBS are now down 2 ticks (.06) on the day and 10yr yields are unchanged at 4.277.
01:40 PM
Flat since 10am. MBS unchanged and 10yr half a bp higher at 4.281
03:45 PM
Still flat near unchanged levels. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr unchanged at 4.277.
Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.
Mandatory Execution, Accounting, Warehouse, TPO Products; STRATMOR on Comp; Upcoming Events and Training
<meta name="smartbanner:author" content="We now have a native iPhone and Android app. Download the NEW APP”>
This website requires Javascrip to run properly.
Mandatory Execution, Accounting, Warehouse, TPO Products; STRATMOR on Comp; Upcoming Events and Training
By: Rob Chrisman
1 Hour, 35 Min ago
“90 percent of bald people still own a comb; they just can’t part with it.” Many companies that retained servicing in 2020 and 2021, complete with low interest rates and borrowers with large amounts of equity & abilities to repay, have made the decision to part with that servicing. Packages of servicing rights continue to hit the market. In a free market, for every seller there’s a buyer for these packages. And in a free market, where most loans from different lenders are often put into the same securities or at least sold at roughly the same price in the secondary markets with approximately the same servicing value, companies that manufacture those loans at the lowest cost stand a better chance of surviving than those that don’t. Turning to borrowers, consumer costs are certainly in the news, especially with any implications from the proposed NAR lawsuit settlement, specifically if the agreement leads to borrowers paying for their real estate commission when they previously did not. (Readers should know that the CFPB does not regulate real estate agents, and the TRID forms already allow disclosure of the fee to be disclosed on either the buyer’s or seller’s side.) Found here, this week’s podcast is sponsored by Visio Lending. Visio is the nation’s premier lender for buy and hold investors with over 2.5 billion closed loans for single-family rental properties, including vacation rentals. Today’s has an interview with attorney Marty Green on the implications of the recent NAR settlement.)
Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software
“Discover the power of partnership with Planet Home Lending Correspondent. Our continually refined product lineup spans vanilla to niche products all tailored to your unique needs: Best effort, mandatory AOT, delegated, or non-delegated. Connect with Planet at the Great River Conference in Memphis, TN, April 16-18. To schedule your meeting, reach out to Regional Sales Managers Joe Griffin 859-806-3323 and Gary Strohwig 262-224-4435, or Renovation Account Executive Margie Walsh 732-673-6228. Not going to Great River this year? Click here to download the latest version of our Product Highlights, then put Planet to work for you in 2024.”
PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending, a subsidiary of Hilltop Holdings (NYSE: HTH), understands the importance of efficiency when it comes to meeting mortgage lenders funding requests. “Express Funding” is how we help our customers reduce the time needed to get loans funded quickly. Express Funding allows our customers to submit multiple loans for funding in one simple data upload, whether it is one loan or 100 loans. We have a growing list of 5,000+ approved closing agents, No Doc funding requirements and funding turn times averaging under 20 minutes! As a well-capitalized financially strong banking partner we give our customers confidence in an uncertain market. If you are interested in learning more about PlainsCapital Bank National Warehouse Lending please contact Deric Barnett, (469)955-6786.
Make your general ledger profitable and run your business more efficiently with Loan Vision and LV-PAM. Instead of “staying alive until ‘25”, with Loan Vision, a software built BY the mortgage industry FOR the mortgage industry, you can “produce more in 24!” Customers on Loan Vision see improvements of 30 percent+ decrease in days to close the books, 20 percent+ reduction in accounting headcount, complete LOS to G/L automation, and improved reporting and visibility. Interested in learning how Loan Vision can help you run a more efficient and profitable company? Contact Carl Wooloff to schedule a call today.
For independent mortgage banks coping with shrinking production volumes and rising costs per loan, outsourcing accounting is an elegant solution to what’s become a very common challenge. Whether you have no accounting expertise in-house or you have a new team with no mortgage experience, you can tap the Richey May Client Accounting and Advisory Services (CAAS) team for the support you need. This team is stacked with mortgage industry experts who can tailor your solution to meet your most pressing needs in a volatile time, with no training needed. Need help transitioning to loan level accounting? Need a fully outsourced function? You got it! Need industry training for your controller? We can do that. In this article, Richey May’s expert Kim Dittmer answers all your most frequently asked questions around outsourced accounting as a mortgage bank.
STRATMOR Comp Survey
Lenders, how have rising rates and shrinking margins impacted your 2024 compensation plans? STRATMOR Group’s Spring 2024 Compensation Connection® Study provides valuable comparisons on compensation components, incentive plan structure, compensation percentiles, and more. Three-year trailing data is also included with most data points. Find out how you compare to your peers by participating. Results will only be available to participants, so register today! Questions? Email [email protected].
Webinars, Events, and Training into April
(A good place for longer term conference planning is to start is here, and click on “Conference List” for in-person events in the future.)
How lenders can save money: Most lenders are painfully aware of rising loan origination costs, which is a common trend in a down market. Yet some lenders are fighting back… Like Lower, which has found a way to save as much as 80 percent on these operational line items and win more loans. Sign up for this exclusive webinar taking place today at 11AM PT, featuring James Duncan and Donielle Geiser (Lower), and Richard Grieser (Truv), and yours truly where they’ll share their take on today’s market and how they’ve reduced costs on operational line items previously thought to be beyond a lender’s control.
Texas Mortgage Bankers Association monthly education webinar: “Guardians of Security.” Join Texas Mortgage Bankers Association for an insightful presentation on navigating cyber risks in the mortgage lending marketplace, Guardians of Security – Navigating Cyber Risks in the Mortgage Industry, today, 11:30 am – 12:30 pm.
Tomorrow, March 22, is this week’s episode of The Mortgage Collaborative’s Rundown covering current events in the mortgage market for 30-45 minutes starting at noon PT, 3PM ET, in “The Rundown”. Tomorrow’s will be co-hosted by TMC CEO David Kittle.
Looking for more in-depth commentary on weekly mortgage news? Register here for “Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One. Every Wednesday at 2:00 PM EST/11:00 AM PT is a dive into a range of mortgage-related topics, including market trends, interest rate fluctuations, innovative mortgage products, and industry advancements. Next week, watch MBA President Bob Broeksmit discuss the industry!
FHA Servicing Quality Assurance Update, Virtual Webinar on March 27, 2– 3:30 PM (Eastern) will provide FHA quality assurance results for calendar year 2023 focusing on top findings from loan-level servicing and lender-level operational reviews. The webinar concludes with a live question and answer session.
On Thursday, March 28th from 2:00-3:00 PM, join CoAMP and Michael Flynn, Of Counsel, w/Buchalter for an informative session moving forward in the current mortgage market could look like, including: What are the areas of increased regulatory activity and likely new rules? The impact on brokers of likely foreclosure increases (increased attacks on whether loans meet the ATR and QM requirements. And increased repurchase and indemnity demands from lenders to brokers). The cost is $10 for CoAMP Member and Member Guests/$25 for Future Members (which can be credited towards an annual CoAMP membership). A virtual link will be sent prior to the event.
Want to hear how top producers are thriving in today’s market? Don’t miss the Modern Mortgage Summit on March 28th, hosted by industry leaders Dave Savage and Todd Bookspan. Tune in virtually to hear from 12+ of the nation’s top mortgage professionals, including Jeremy Forcier, Shayla Gifford, and Dan Keller, as they share their best strategies for success in a TED-talk style format. Virtual tickets are only $100, and a portion of your ticket purchase supports the financial literacy nonprofit, FirstHome IQ. Secure your ticket today at modernmortgagesummit.com.
During a virtual press conference on March 28, ABA Economic Advisory Committee Chair Simona Mocuta, managing director and chief economist at State Street Global Advisors, will present the latest consensus economic forecast from this panel of top economists at some of North America’s largest banks. The Committee’s updated outlook comes as inflation gradually abates, economic uncertainty persists, and the Federal Reserve considers a less restrictive policy. The committee’s forecast will include the group’s latest assessment of GDP growth, unemployment, inflation, interest rates and credit conditions. RSVP required: Please contact Ava Castelli to RSVP and receive login/dial-in information.
FHA is offering In-Person, Free Underwriting Training in Denver, CO., April 10, 9:00 AM – 12:00 PM MST. Training will provide an overview of FHA underwriting procedures as outlined in FHA’s Single Family Housing Policy Handbook 4000.1 and addresses several industry-related frequently asked questions (FAQs). This training will also take an in-depth look at a variety of topics including credit, income, and asset (CIA) documentation; manual underwriting; automated underwriting systems (AUS); closing; and more.
FHA is offering In-Person, Free FHA Appraisal Training in Denver, CO., April 10, 1– 4 PM MST. Training will provide an overview of FHA appraisal protocol and updates to FHA appraisal policy as outlined in FHA’s Single Family Housing Policy Handbook 4000.1. This training will also take an in-depth look at a variety of appraisal-related topics including property acceptability criteria; minimum property requirements; property defects; appraiser responsibilities and requirements; and more.
Join the MBA of NJ, in partnership with HUD for the 2024 HUD Housing Counseling Session, April 11th, 2:00PM – 4:00PM at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY., Keys to Homeownership: Building Strategic Partnerships.
Acquire a greater perspective from industry experts at American Mortgage Conference from April 15 – 17. Held in a new location this year at the Marriott Savannah Riverfront in Georgia. Co-hosted by ABA and the North Carolina Bankers Association, this premier conference is the only mortgage event that blends business and regulation to assure you are fully up to date and fully connected to crucial professional networks.
AmeriCatalyst explores the operational impact of climate change and its profound industry-wide implications for the US housing and finance market. The event brings together senior representatives and CEOs from government entities including the White House, The Fed, Treasury and the FDIC; government housing entities; insurance companies; institutional investors; investment banks; banks; mortgage originators and servicers; homebuilders; Single Family Rental Operators and REITs; the leading data providers; economists; academic institutions; climate tech providers and world renowned climatologists. The purpose of the event is to recognize, prioritize, mobilize, and prepare for an increasingly volatile, unpredictable, and potentially uninsurable future due to extreme and catastrophic weather-related events due to climate change. AmeriCatalyst’s GOING TO EXTREMES: The Climate, Housing and Finance Summit is being held at the Gaylord National Harbor (in the Washington DC area) on April 18 and 19. Contact Toni Moss (512-461-6340) with questions.
Capital Markets
AC/DC released its masterpiece, “Back in Black,” 44 years ago. The album was a rebirth after its original lead singer’s death. After challenging times, mortgage lenders seek to get back in the black on their income statements. One solution is moving back to mandatory delivery, and Optimal Blue can help you do it. For nearly 20 years, Optimal Blue has advised and guided originators to transition from best efforts to mandatory successfully. With recent data showing the best efforts to mandatory premium above 40 basis points (bps) for conventional 30-year loans, the return on investment provides a clear path to a return to the black. Whether you are approaching or expecting a volume boost or looking to put fewer agency-eligible loans on your balance sheet, now is the time to learn how Optimal Blue can help. To learn more, connect with Mark Teteris, CMB, Optimal Blue’s director of solutions specialists.
Interested in learning more about moving from best efforts to mandatory loan sales? Maybe you’ve already moved to mandatory and are looking for even more pickup and ways to mitigate risk? Join MCT’s Moving to Mandatory Loan Sales webinar on April 4th at 11am PT to learn how mandatory loan sales is helping lenders improve profitability while reducing risk. In this webinar, MCT’s Scott Holtz, Vice President of South Regional Sales, will discuss how to leverage mandatory loan sales to improve profitability, manage risk with pipeline hedging, and operational changes needed for the transition. Register for the webinar or join MCT’s newsletter to receive the latest educational content.
In interest rate news, as was widely expected, the Fed held the federal funds target steady at a range of 5.25 percent to 5.50 percent yesterday, extending the pause on rate changes that followed their most recent hike last July. This decision was unanimous as the Fed believes that employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. However, the committee also repeated from their prior statement made January 31st, that it “does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”
Meanwhile, the latest summary of economic projections showed no change in the Fed’s median fed funds rate projection for this year (4.6 percent) while the forecast for 2025 was raised to 3.9 percent from 3.6 percent. The Core PCE forecast for 2024 was raised to slightly while the GDP growth forecast increased slightly as well from the last estimate in December. During his press conference, Fed Chairman Powell said that it will be appropriate to slow the pace of asset runoff fairly soon. Rate cut expectations increased by yesterday’s close with the implied likelihood of a June cut rising to 74 percent from 59 percent on Tuesday.
Following yesterday’s Fed events, today brings the latest decisions from the Swiss National Bank, Norges Banks, and Bank of England. The U.S. calendar has already kicked off with the Q4 current account deficit, weekly jobless claims (210k, down slightly; continuing claims 1.807 million), and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing (3.2, down but not negative).
Later today brings S&P Global flash PMIs for March, existing home sales for February, leading indicators, Treasury announcing the auction sizes for next week’s month-end supply auctions before auctioning off $16 billion reopened 10-year TIPS, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, and remarks from Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Barr. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices a tough better than Wednesday, the 10-year yielding 4.24 after closing yesterday at 4.27, and the 2-year yield down to 4.58.
Jobs
“It’s 1999: Californication and Slim Shady dominate the charts, the iconic films Fight Club and The Matrix are released, Serena Williams wins her first Grand Slam to kick off an outrageous career and with inspiring greatness being born all around Seth Fass founds East Coast Capital. Celebrating its 25th anniversary, East Coast Capital has scored incredible victories for clients to achieve their homeownership goals. Once a small broker, NY-Based East Coast Capital is now a licensed bank across the nation, approved with Fannie, Freddie, and FHA and also specializes in underwriting Non-QM loans. Committed to providing homeowners access to capital and supporting loan officers with a diverse range of products and common-sense approach to underwriting, the movies and songs may have fallen off the playlist and Serena has retired from the courts, but born among the best, East Coast Capital still remains! Ready to Join? Email us here.”
Congratulations to John Hedlund, the Chief Operating Officer and Managing Director of AmeriHome, who has announced his retirement from the company.
Calling all applicants for Flagstar’s MortgageTech Accelerator, a highly acclaimed incubator for young fintech companies with fresh solutions for the mortgage sector, now in its fifth edition. Flagstar is looking for applicants who are making breakthroughs in all facets of the mortgage business including origination, processing, marketing, servicing, compliance, sales, underwriting, credit, and quality assessment. The program comes packed with perks like access to Flagstar senior executive mentors and a wide network of potential customers, as well as the opportunity to test solutions in a real-world controlled environment. Ranking high among the selection criteria are the potential for technological innovation, prospects for growth, and CRA impact. Past alums Greenline, Calque Inc., and Housetable, give the program a resounding thumbs-up. Check it all out here and email your pitch deck to [email protected] by April 15.
Download our mobile app to get alerts for Rob Chrisman’s Commentary.
Share via Social Media:
All social media shares will include the image and link to this page.
Average mortgage rates edged higher yesterday. Unfortunately, it was the sixth consecutive business day on which they’ve risen.
Earlier this morning, markets were signaling that mortgage rates today might barely move. However, these early mini-trends frequently alter speed or direction as the hours pass.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.15%
7.17%
Unchanged
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.57%
6.61%
-0.04
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.16%
7.19%
+0.02
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.63%
6.66%
-0.05
30-year fixed FHA
6.51%
7.19%
Unchanged
30-year fixed VA
6.61%
6.72%
-0.03
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.3%
7.39%
Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
Tomorrow’s Federal Reserve events (see below) could make a big difference to mortgage rates in the near and medium terms. But, right now, I’m pessimistic about our seeing a sustained downward trend until the summer. And some wonder if the fall might be a more realistic timeframe.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes held steady again at 4.32%. (Neutral for mortgage rates. However, yields were rising this morning.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were mixed this morning. (Neutral for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices increased to $83.18 from $81.35 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices inched down to $2,156 from $2,159 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — dropped to 69 from 75 out of 100. (Good for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to hold close to steady. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
Tomorrow
I covered yesterday the three Federal Reserve events due early tomorrow afternoon:
2 p.m. Eastern — Rate announcement and report publications
2 p.m. Eastern — Summary of Economic Projects publication. This occurs only quarterly and includes a dot plot
I’ll brief you more fully on those tomorrow morning. That way you’ll know what to look out for before it’s too late to act.
Personally, I’m not very hopeful about the impact of the Fed’s events on mortgage rates. Of course, I can’t be sure what they’ll bring. But recent economic data has likely reinforced the central bank’s natural caution. And I suspect that it may signal later and fewer cuts in general interest rates this year than markets have been expecting.
If I’m right, that could be seriously bad for mortgage rates. So, let’s hope I’m wrong.
Today and later in the week
I’ll be surprised if today’s economic reports move mortgage rates much. They cover February’s housing starts and building permits. It’s not that those data are unimportant. However, they rarely attract the attention of the investors who largely determine mortgage rates.
We have to wait until Thursday for a couple of reports that sometimes affect mortgage rates. They’re two March purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) from S&P. One is for the services sector and the other covers manufacturing. I’ll brief you on those tomorrow morning.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Mar. 14 report put that same weekly average at 6.74% down from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Feb. 12 and the MBA’s on Feb. 20.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.5%
6.3%
6.1%
5.9%
MBA
6.9%
6.6%
6.3%
6.1%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.
Average mortgage rates climbed moderately last Friday. Indeed, they rose on every business day last week. However, that followed a week of mainly falls. And those rates begin this morning close to where they were at the start of March.
First thing, it was looking as if mortgage rates today barely move. But that could change later in the day.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
Find your lowest rate. Start here
Program
Mortgage Rate
APR*
Change
Conventional 30-year fixed
7.12%
7.13%
+0.02
Conventional 15-year fixed
6.62%
6.65%
+0.03
Conventional 20-year fixed
7.15%
7.17%
+0.04
Conventional 10-year fixed
6.64%
6.66%
Unchanged
30-year fixed FHA
6.49%
7.17%
+0.01
30-year fixed VA
6.61%
6.72%
+0.02
5/1 ARM Conventional
6.28%
7.38%
Unchanged
Rates are provided by our partner network, and may not reflect the market. Your rate might be different. Click here for a personalized rate quote. See our rate assumptions See our rate assumptions here.
Should you lock your mortgage rate today?
I doubt we’ll see mortgage rates enter a consistent downward trend much before the summer, and possibly later.
So, for now, my personal rate lock recommendations remain:
LOCK if closing in 7 days
LOCK if closing in 15 days
LOCK if closing in 30 days
LOCK if closing in 45 days
LOCKif closing in 60days
However, with so much uncertainty at the moment, your instincts could easily turn out to be as good as mine — or better. So, let your gut and your own tolerance for risk help guide you.
>Related: 7 Tips to get the best refinance rate
Market data affecting today’s mortgage rates
Here’s a snapshot of the state of play this morning at about 9:50 a.m. (ET). The data are mostly compared with roughly the same time the business day before, so much of the movement will often have happened in the previous session. The numbers are:
The yield on 10-year Treasury notes held steady at 4.32%. (Neutral for mortgage rates. However, yields were rising this morning.) More than any other market, mortgage rates typically tend to follow these particular Treasury bond yields
Major stock indexes were rising this morning. (Bad for mortgage rates.) When investors buy shares, they’re often selling bonds, which pushes those prices down and increases yields and mortgage rates. The opposite may happen when indexes are lower. But this is an imperfect relationship
Oil prices increased to $81.35 from $80.62 a barrel. (Bad for mortgage rates*.) Energy prices play a prominent role in creating inflation and also point to future economic activity
Goldprices inched down to $2,159 from $2,162 an ounce. (Neutral for mortgage rates*.) It is generally better for rates when gold prices rise and worse when they fall. Because gold tends to rise when investors worry about the economy.
CNN Business Fear & Greed index — nudged up to 75 from 71 out of 100. (Bad for mortgage rates.) “Greedy” investors push bond prices down (and interest rates up) as they leave the bond market and move into stocks, while “fearful” investors do the opposite. So, lower readings are often better than higher ones
*A movement of less than $20 on gold prices or 40 cents on oil ones is a change of 1% or less. So we only count meaningful differences as good or bad for mortgage rates.
Caveats about markets and rates
Before the pandemic, post-pandemic upheavals, and war in Ukraine, you could look at the above figures and make a pretty good guess about what would happen to mortgage rates that day. But that’s no longer the case. We still make daily calls. And are usually right. But our record for accuracy won’t achieve its former high levels until things settle down.
So, use markets only as a rough guide. Because they have to be exceptionally strong or weak to rely on them. But, with that caveat, mortgage rates today look likely to hold close to steady. However, be aware that “intraday swings” (when rates change speed or direction during the day) are a common feature right now.
Find your lowest rate. Start here
What’s driving mortgage rates today?
The Fed
The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting body (the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC) begins a two-day meeting tomorrow. And a flurry of events is scheduled for the following afternoon.
Almost nobody expects an announcement of a cut in general interest rates on Wednesday. But events that afternoon include:
2 p.m. Eastern — Rate announcement and report publications
2 p.m. Eastern — Summary of Economic Projects publication. This occurs only quarterly and includes a dot plot
These FOMC documents and the news conference may provide new insights into how the Fed’s thinking on future cuts to general interest rates is evolving. So, markets globally will be paying the closest attention to every word written and uttered.
And there is huge potential for Wednesday’s Fed events to move mortgage rates.
I covered this in last Saturday’s weekend edition. And I’ll brief you in more detail again on Wednesday morning so you’ll know what to look out for.
Other influences on mortgage rates this week
Most of the economic reports on this week’s calendar are unlikely to affect mortgage rates. It’s not impossible. But they cover areas of the economy that rarely interest the bond investors who largely determine those rates.
Today’s lone report is a good example. It’s the home builder confidence index for February, which came in as expected. I don’t recall the last time that had a perceptible influence on mortgage rates. And the same goes for tomorrow’s housing starts and building permits, also for February.
The two reports that might move mortgage rates this week are both March purchasing managers’ indexes (PMIs) from S&P. One covers the services sector and the other manufacturing.
They’re both expected to show purchasing activity slowing modestly. But I’ll brief you more fully on what to expect on Wednesday.
Friday has no scheduled economic reports. However, three Fed speakers, including Chair Jerome Powell, have speaking engagements that day. Those could be an opportunity to reinforce messages communicated on Wednesday and to correct any misunderstandings. So, they could have an impact on mortgage rates.
Don’t forget you can always learn more about what’s driving mortgage rates in the most recent weekend edition of this daily report. These provide a more detailed analysis of what’s happening. They are published each Saturday morning soon after 10 a.m. (ET) and include a preview of the following week.
Recent trends
According to Freddie Mac’s archives, the weekly all-time lowest rate for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages was set on Jan. 7, 2021, when it stood at 2.65%. The weekly all-time high was 18.63% on Sep. 10, 1981.
Freddie’s Mar. 14 report put that same weekly average at 6.74% down from the previous week’s 6.88%. But note that Freddie’s data are almost always out of date by the time it announces its weekly figures.
Expert forecasts for mortgage rates
Looking further ahead, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) each has a team of economists dedicated to monitoring and forecasting what will happen to the economy, the housing sector and mortgage rates.
And here are their rate forecasts for the four quarters of 2024 (Q1/24, Q2/24 Q3/24 and Q4/24).
The numbers in the table below are for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages. Fannie’s were updated on Feb. 12 and the MBA’s on Feb. 20.
Forecaster
Q1/24
Q2/24
Q3/24
Q4/24
Fannie Mae
6.5%
6.3%
6.1%
5.9%
MBA
6.9%
6.6%
6.3%
6.1%
Of course, given so many unknowables, both these forecasts might be even more speculative than usual. And their past record for accuracy hasn’t been wildly impressive.
Important notes on today’s mortgage rates
Here are some things you need to know:
Typically, mortgage rates go up when the economy’s doing well and down when it’s in trouble. But there are exceptions. Read ‘How mortgage rates are determined and why you should care’
Only “top-tier” borrowers (with stellar credit scores, big down payments, and very healthy finances) get the ultralow mortgage rates you’ll see advertised
Lenders vary. Yours may or may not follow the crowd when it comes to daily rate movements — though they all usually follow the broader trend over time
When daily rate changes are small, some lenders will adjust closing costs and leave their rate cards the same
Refinance rates are typically close to those for purchases.
A lot is going on at the moment. And nobody can claim to know with certainty what will happen to mortgage rates in the coming hours, days, weeks or months.
Find your lowest mortgage rate today
You should comparison shop widely, no matter what sort of mortgage you want. Federal regulator the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau found in May 2023:
“Mortgage borrowers are paying around $100 a month more depending on which lender they choose, for the same type of loan and the same consumer characteristics (such as credit score and down payment).”
In other words, over the lifetime of a 30-year loan, homebuyers who don’t bother to get quotes from multiple lenders risk losing an average of $36,000. What could you do with that sort of money?
Verify your new rate
Mortgage rate methodology
The Mortgage Reports receives rates based on selected criteria from multiple lending partners each day. We arrive at an average rate and APR for each loan type to display in our chart. Because we average an array of rates, it gives you a better idea of what you might find in the marketplace. Furthermore, we average rates for the same loan types. For example, FHA fixed with FHA fixed. The end result is a good snapshot of daily rates and how they change over time.
How your mortgage interest rate is determined
Mortgage and refinance rates vary a lot depending on each borrower’s unique situation.
Factors that determine your mortgage interest rate include:
Overall strength of the economy — A strong economy usually means higher rates, while a weaker one can push current mortgage rates down to promote borrowing
Lender capacity — When a lender is very busy, it will increase rates to deter new business and give its loan officers some breathing room
Property type (condo, single-family, town house, etc.) — A primary residence, meaning a home you plan to live in full time, will have a lower interest rate. Investment properties, second homes, and vacation homes have higher mortgage rates
Loan-to-value ratio (determined by your down payment) — Your loan-to-value ratio (LTV) compares your loan amount to the value of the home. A lower LTV, meaning a bigger down payment, gets you a lower mortgage rate
Debt-To-Income ratio — This number compares your total monthly debts to your pretax income. The more debt you currently have, the less room you’ll have in your budget for a mortgage payment
Loan term — Loans with a shorter term (like a 15-year mortgage) typically have lower rates than a 30-year loan term
Borrower’s credit score — Typically the higher your credit score is, the lower your mortgage rate, and vice versa
Mortgage discount points — Borrowers have the option to buy discount points or ‘mortgage points’ at closing. These let you pay money upfront to lower your interest rate
Remember, every mortgage lender weighs these factors a little differently.
To find the best rate for your situation, you’ll want to get personalized estimates from a few different lenders.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Are refinance rates the same as mortgage rates?
Rates for a home purchase and mortgage refinance are often similar.
However, some lenders will charge more for a refinance under certain circumstances.
Typically when rates fall, homeowners rush to refinance. They see an opportunity to lock in a lower rate and payment for the rest of their loan.
This creates a tidal wave of new work for mortgage lenders.
Unfortunately, some lenders don’t have the capacity or crew to process a large number of refinance loan applications.
In this case, a lender might raise its rates to deter new business and give loan officers time to process loans currently in the pipeline.
Also, cashing out equity can result in a higher rate when refinancing.
Cash-out refinances pose a greater risk for mortgage lenders, so they’re often priced higher than new home purchases and rate-term refinances.
Check your refinance rates today. Start here
How to get the lowest mortgage or refinance rate
Since rates can vary, always shop around when buying a house or refinancing a mortgage.
Comparison shopping can potentially save thousands, even tens of thousands of dollars over the life of your loan.
Here are a few tips to keep in mind:
1. Get multiple quotes
Many borrowers make the mistake of accepting the first mortgage or refinance offer they receive.
Some simply go with the bank they use for checking and savings since that can seem easiest.
However, your bank might not offer the best mortgage deal for you. And if you’re refinancing, your financial situation may have changed enough that your current lender is no longer your best bet.
So get multiple quotes from at least three different lenders to find the right one for you.
2. Compare Loan Estimates
When shopping for a mortgage or refinance, lenders will provide a Loan Estimate that breaks down important costs associated with the loan.
You’ll want to read these Loan Estimates carefully and compare costs and fees line-by-line, including:
Interest rate
Annual percentage rate (APR)
Monthly mortgage payment
Loan origination fees
Rate lock fees
Closing costs
Remember, the lowest interest rate isn’t always the best deal.
Annual percentage rate (APR) can help you compare the ‘real’ cost of two loans. It estimates your total yearly cost including interest and fees.
Also, pay close attention to your closing costs.
Some lenders may bring their rates down by charging more upfront via discount points. These can add thousands to your out-of-pocket costs.
3. Negotiate your mortgage rate
You can also negotiate your mortgage rate to get a better deal.
Let’s say you get loan estimates from two lenders. Lender A offers the better rate, but you prefer your loan terms from Lender B. Talk to Lender B and see if they can beat the former’s pricing.
You might be surprised to find that a lender is willing to give you a lower interest rate in order to keep your business.
And if they’re not, keep shopping — there’s a good chance someone will.
Fixed-rate mortgage vs. adjustable-rate mortgage: Which is right for you?
Mortgage borrowers can choose between a fixed-rate mortgage and an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM).
Fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) have interest rates that never change unless you decide to refinance. This results in predictable monthly payments and stability over the life of your loan.
Adjustable-rate loans have a low interest rate that’s fixed for a set number of years (typically five or seven). After the initial fixed-rate period, the interest rate adjusts every year based on market conditions.
With each rate adjustment, a borrower’s mortgage rate can either increase, decrease, or stay the same. These loans are unpredictable since monthly payments can change each year.
Adjustable-rate mortgages are fitting for borrowers who expect to move before their first rate adjustment, or who can afford a higher future payment.
In most other cases, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically the safer and better choice.
Remember, if rates drop sharply, you are free to refinance and lock in a lower rate and payment later on.
How your credit score affects your mortgage rate
You don’t need a high credit score to qualify for a home purchase or refinance, but your credit score will affect your rate.
This is because credit history determines risk level.
Historically speaking, borrowers with higher credit scores are less likely to default on their mortgages, so they qualify for lower rates.
So, for the best rate, aim for a credit score of 720 or higher.
Mortgage programs that don’t require a high score include:
Conventional home loans — minimum 620 credit score
FHA loans — minimum 500 credit score (with a 10% down payment) or 580 (with a 3.5% down payment)
VA loans — no minimum credit score, but 620 is common
USDA loans — minimum 640 credit score
Ideally, you want to check your credit report and score at least 6 months before applying for a mortgage. This gives you time to sort out any errors and make sure your score is as high as possible.
If you’re ready to apply now, it’s still worth checking so you have a good idea of what loan programs you might qualify for and how your score will affect your rate.
You can get your credit report from AnnualCreditReport.com and your score from MyFico.com.
How big of a down payment do I need?
Nowadays, mortgage programs don’t require the conventional 20 percent down.
Indeed, first-time home buyers put only 6 percent down on average.
Down payment minimums vary depending on the loan program. For example:
Conventional home loans require a down payment between 3% and 5%
FHA loans require 3.5% down
VA and USDA loans allow zero down payment
Jumbo loans typically require at least 5% to 10% down
Keep in mind, a higher down payment reduces your risk as a borrower and helps you negotiate a better mortgage rate.
If you are able to make a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid paying for mortgage insurance.
This is an added cost paid by the borrower, which protects their lender in case of default or foreclosure.
But a big down payment is not required.
For many people, it makes sense to make a smaller down payment in order to buy a house sooner and start building home equity.
Verify your new rate. Start here
Choosing the right type of home loan
No two mortgage loans are alike, so it’s important to know your options and choose the right type of mortgage.
The five main types of mortgages include:
Fixed-rate mortgage (FRM)
Your interest rate remains the same over the life of the loan. This is a good option for borrowers who expect to live in their homes long-term.
The most popular loan option is the 30-year mortgage, but 15- and 20-year terms are also commonly available.
Adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM)
Adjustable-rate loans have a fixed interest rate for the first few years. Then, your mortgage rate resets every year.
Your rate and payment can rise or fall annually depending on how the broader interest rate trends.
ARMs are ideal for borrowers who expect to move prior to their first rate adjustment (usually in 5 or 7 years).
For those who plan to stay in their home long-term, a fixed-rate mortgage is typically recommended.
Jumbo mortgage
A jumbo loan is a mortgage that exceeds the conforming loan limit set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
In 2023, the conforming loan limit is $726,200 in most areas.
Jumbo loans are perfect for borrowers who need a larger loan to purchase a high-priced property, especially in big cities with high real estate values.
FHA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Federal Housing Administration for low- to moderate-income borrowers. FHA loans feature low credit score and down payment requirements.
VA mortgage
A government loan backed by the Department of Veterans Affairs. To be eligible, you must be active-duty military, a veteran, a Reservist or National Guard service member, or an eligible spouse.
VA loans allow no down payment and have exceptionally low mortgage rates.
USDA mortgage
USDA loans are a government program backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They offer a no-down-payment solution for borrowers who purchase real estate in an eligible rural area. To qualify, your income must be at or below the local median.
Bank statement loan
Borrowers can qualify for a mortgage without tax returns, using their personal or business bank account as evidence of their financial circumstances. This is an option for self-employed or seasonally-employed borrowers.
Portfolio/Non-QM loan
These are mortgages that lenders don’t sell on the secondary mortgage market. And this gives lenders the flexibility to set their own guidelines.
Non-QM loans may have lower credit score requirements or offer low-down-payment options without mortgage insurance.
Choosing the right mortgage lender
The lender or loan program that’s right for one person might not be right for another.
Explore your options and then pick a loan based on your credit score, down payment, and financial goals, as well as local home prices.
Whether you’re getting a mortgage for a home purchase or a refinance, always shop around and compare rates and terms.
Typically, it only takes a few hours to get quotes from multiple lenders. And it could save you thousands in the long run.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Current mortgage rates methodology
We receive current mortgage rates each day from a network of mortgage lenders that offer home purchase and refinance loans. Those mortgage rates shown here are based on sample borrower profiles that vary by loan type. See our full loan assumptions here.