National mortgage rates were mostly higher versus last week, according to rate data compiled by Bankrate. Rates for 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed and jumbo mortgages moved higher, while 5/1 ARM rates stayed flat.
Mortgage rates could gradually come down this year, according to Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate chief financial analyst. Rates began falling in the latter part of 2023 as inflation cooled and the Federal Reserve opted not to raise rates further. The central bank now expects to cut rates in 2024 — a reversal that would touch all corners of the economy, including on the 10-year Treasury, the main driver of fixed mortgage rates.
“The 10-year Treasury yield that serves as a baseline for fixed mortgage rates will have a bouncy journey lower, moving back above 4 percent early in 2024 but trending lower as inflation cools and the Fed gets closer to cutting rates,” says McBride. “For mortgage rates, that portends a general downtrend — albeit with fits and starts — in 2024.”
Rates last updated January 5, 2024.
These rates are marketplace averages based on the assumptions here. Actual rates listed on-site may vary. This story has been reviewed by Suzanne De Vita. All rate data accurate as of Friday, January 5th, 2024 at 7:30 a.m.
30-year mortgage increases, +0.14%
The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage for today is 7.09 percent, an increase of 14 basis points since the same time last week. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was higher, at 7.45 percent.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay a combined $671.36 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s up $9.41 from what it would have been last week.
The 30-year mortgage is the most popular home loan, and it has a number of advantages. Among them:
Lower monthly payment: Compared to a shorter term, such as 15 years, the 30-year mortgage offers lower, more affordable payments spread over time.
Stability: With a 30-year fixed mortgage, you lock in a set principal and interest payment, making it easier to plan your housing expenses for the long term. Keep in mind: Your monthly housing payment can still change if your homeowners insurance premiums and property taxes go up or, less likely, down.
Buying power: With lower payments, you might qualify for a larger loan amountor a more expensive home.
Flexibility: Lower monthly payments can free up some of your monthly budget for other goals, like building an emergency fund, contributing to retirement or college tuition, or saving for home repairs and maintenance.
Read more: What is a fixed-rate mortgage and how does it work?
15-year mortgage rate advances, +0.12%
The average 15-year fixed-mortgage rate is 6.47 percent, up 12 basis points over the last week.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed mortgage at that rate will cost approximately $869 per $100,000 borrowed. The bigger payment may be a little harder to find room for in your monthly budget than a 30-year mortgage payment, but it comes with some big advantages: You’ll come out several thousand dollars ahead over the life of the loan in total interest paid and build equity much faster.
5/1 ARM goes unchanged
The average rate on a 5/1 ARM is 6.40 percent, unchanged over the last 7 days.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMs, are home loans that come with a floating interest rate. In other words, the interest rate will change at regular intervals, unlike fixed-rate mortgages. These loan types are best for those who expect to sell or refinance before the first or second adjustment. Rates could be considerably higher when the loan first adjusts, and thereafter.
While borrowers shunned ARMs during the pandemic days of super-low rates, this type of loan has made a comeback as mortgage rates have risen.
Monthly payments on a 5/1 ARM at 6.40 percent would cost about $626 for each $100,000 borrowed over the initial five years, but could increase by hundreds of dollars afterward, depending on the loan’s terms.
Current jumbo mortgage rate moves higher, +0.14%
The average jumbo mortgage rate is 7.14 percent, an increase of 14 basis points since the same time last week. This time a month ago, jumbo mortgages’ average rate was above that, at 7.53 percent.
At the average rate today for a jumbo loan, you’ll pay a combined $674.73 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. That’s an increase of $9.43 over what you would have paid last week.
Mortgage refinance rates
30-year mortgage refinance rate increases, +0.14%
The average 30-year fixed-refinance rate is 7.23 percent, up 14 basis points compared with a week ago. A month ago, the average rate on a 30-year fixed refinance was higher, at 7.57 percent.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $680.82 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. Compared with last week, that’s $9.46 higher.
Where are mortgage rates going?
At its December meeting, the Federal Reserve signaled it was done raising interest rates and would begin cuts in 2024. In response, mortgage rates dropped to under 7 percent, and remain there as of early January.
This dynamic could hold throughout the year, says McBride.
“Mortgage rates will spend the bulk of the year in the 6s, with movement below 6 percent confined to the back half of the year,” says McBride.
The rates on 30-year mortgages mostly follow the 10-year treasury, which shifts continuously as economic conditions dictate, while the cost of variable-rate home loans mirror the Fed’s moves. These broader factors influence overall rate movement. Your rate might be higher or lower than what trends show, depending on your credit score and other factors.
What today’s rates mean for you and your mortgage
While mortgage rates are notoriously volatile, there is some consensus that we won’t see rates back at 3 percent. If you’re shopping for a mortgage now, it might be wise to lock your rate when you find an affordable loan. If your house-hunt is taking longer than anticipated, revisit your budget so you’ll know exactly how much house you can afford at prevailing market rates.
Keep in mind: You could save thousands over the life of your mortgage by getting at least three loan offers, according to Freddie Mac research. You don’t have to stick with your bank or credit union, either. There are many types of mortgage lenders, including online-only and local, smaller shops.
“All too often, some [homebuyers] take the path of least resistance when seeking a mortgage, in part because the process of buying a home can be stressful, complicated and time-consuming,” says Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for Bankrate. “But when we’re talking about the potential of saving a lot of money, seeking the best deal on a mortgage has an excellent return on investment. Why leave that money on the table when all it takes is a bit more effort to shop around for the best rate, or lowest cost, on a mortgage?”
More on current mortgage rates
Methodology
Bankrate displays two sets of rate averages that are produced from two surveys we conduct: one daily (“overnight averages”) and the other weekly (“Bankrate Monitor averages”).
The rates on this page represent our overnight averages. For these averages, APRs and rates are based on no existing relationship or automatic payments.
Learn more about Bankrate’s rate averages, editorial guidelines and how we make money.
Investing in real estate is some of the oldest and most reliable financial advice in the books. Few other assets can compete with real estate’s vast array of benefits. These benefits include tax advantages, appreciation, relative impunity to market shifts, and even the potential for passive income.
But even if you have every intention of investing in real estate, it can be challenging to get started. After all, even a modest home usually requires a substantial down payment. And it can take years to save up those five-figure sums. The term “real estate investor” may bring to mind a multi-millionaire who manages several properties, leaving you feeling overwhelmed enough to give up the ghost entirely.
Fortunately, it is possible to invest in real estate with little or no money, even if you aren’t swimming in discretionary income. For instance, with an Opportunity Fund or REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) you can get your foot in the door even if you can’t afford to purchase an entire property. There are also a host of ways to leverage your own home. These include house hacking, renting vacation space on Airbnb, and more.
In this post, we’ll break down everything you need to know about how to invest in real estate. We’ll go over some of the most common types of real estate investing. We’ll also break down how they can help you make money. And we’ll explain how you can begin, no matter how much capital you have in hand.
Why Invest in Real Estate?
Before we dig into the meat of the post, let’s take a moment to backtrack. Why is real estate investing such a well-worn piece of financial advice?
You’ve probably heard that diversifying your portfolio of real estate investments is essential. But your “portfolio” doesn’t just have to live on the stock market! Real estate investing gives you, as the name suggests, a real, tangible asset. And it’s much less vulnerable to the capriciousness of the market.
Real estate investing can help you not only build home equity but also generate passive cash flow. Both through the process of appreciation and the more intentional, hands-on approaches we’ll study further below. And owning your own home can help you reap financial benefits while simultaneously providing for one of your most basic needs.
How to Invest in Real Estate with Little Money
When a down payment might cost as much as $60,000, it’s understandable that many first-time property shoppers feel overwhelmed. They say you have to spend money to make money. Yes, but that’s quite a hefty figure for the average American earner.
To be sure, some real estate investment strategies require a good deal of cash upfront to be workable. But there are other tactics that don’t necessitate such a large lump sum to begin with. This means you don’t have to be a real estate mogul to be a property owner. We’ll break down various strategies at both ends of the spectrum below.
Types of Real Estate Investing
Let’s get into the nitty-gritty. What types of real estate can you invest in?
There are three main types of investment properties available to real estate investors.
Residential properties are probably the ones you’re most familiar with. They are exactly what they sound like: buildings used by individuals and families as residential living spaces. These properties include single-family homes, duplexes, apartments, condominiums, and townhouses, and multi-family homes (so long as they’re being used residentially and don’t exceed four units).
Commercial real estate are properties used to conduct business. They may include offices, storefronts, retail spaces, farmland, and large multi-family houses or apartment buildings.
Industrial real estate are properties that serve industrial business purposes, such as factories, power plants, or storage and shipping warehouses.
Furthermore, there are both active and passive forms of real estate investing.
Active investing is, well, active. It requires a good deal of time, energy, and commitment from the investor. Active investing may become a part- or even full-time job for the investor. They usually share ownership with few (or no) other people and thus bears a lot of responsibility for the success of the investment.
Passive investing, on the other hand, allows the investor to reap the benefits of investing without taking on the pressure and responsibility of full ownership of a tangible property. In most cases, passive investing involves supplying capital to a larger investment pool. You earn capital gains on loan interest through dividends paid to shareholders.
We’ll go into it all of this in more detail, including specific ways you can invest in real estate, both active and passive.
How Real Estate Investing Can Help You Earn
Before we break down the specific ways you can get started investing in real estate, let’s talk about how it can help you make money. (After all, that’s the whole point!)
You can invest in real estate in several ways, depending on what type of investing you’re participating in.
Equity and appreciation
Purchasing real estate equips the owner with a “hard asset”; the tangible property or building. Owning this kind of asset confers equity, or value. It isn’t as vulnerable to the fluctuations of the market as stocks, bonds, and other securities. Furthermore, property has a longstanding history of increasing in value over time, or appreciating.
On the contrary, other types of purchases (like automobiles) depreciate, or lose value. Thus, purchasing a property may allow you to earn income passively simply through the process of appreciation. It more or less ensures that the cash value of your home is a safe and stable part of your overall net worth.
Rental income
Chances are, you’ve had to pay rent to a landlord at some point in your life. Well, if you become the landlord, someone’s paying you the rent. And as long as that rental price eclipses your total expenses, including your mortgage and maintenance costs, the rest is profit!
Aside from managing the investment property, you can also collect rental income by sharing your space on platforms like Airbnb or house hacking, which we’ll explain below.
Sale profit
This happens when you buy a home with the intention to fix it up and sell it down the line (also known as “house flipping”.) It’s the difference between your sale cost and your purchase cost (minus all the expenses put into maintenance and improvements) is pure profit.
Loan interest
The interest charged on home and property loans can increase the value of real estate investments made through REITs, investment platforms, and private equity firms.
Ways to Invest in Real Estate
Now we know a bit about the different types of properties available to investors and how those real estate investments stand to help you earn cash.
So, what are the specific ways to go about real estate investing? There are several in both the “active” and “passive” categories.
Active:
House flipping, or rehabbing, is when an investor purchases a property with the sole intent of fixing it up to sell it later on.
Wholesaling is similar to flipping houses, but less work intensive. Wholesaling occurs when an investor purchases a property they believe is underpriced, so they can quickly sell it to another investor at a profit.
Rental properties give investors a long-term way to draw profit from their investments, though they do require lots of hands-on management and maintenance over time.
Airbnb, Vrbo, and other vacation rentals can often be listed for substantial per-night prices. They can be especially lucrative in high-demand travel destinations.
Passive:
Private equity funds pool the assets of many investors, which creates a larger, more powerful investment fund. These funds are usually overseen and allocated by a dedicated manager. They may have high minimum investment thresholds and requirements to join.
Opportunity funds also pool investors’ assets, but with the specific purpose of making investments in qualified Opportunity Zones. These are low-income, up-and-coming communities that would benefit from private investments and economic development.
REITs are companies that invest in commercial properties. Private investors can purchase shares of the company and earn income on capital gains in the form of dividends.
Online REIT platforms can make real estate investing accessible to beginning investors, often carrying no net worth or accreditation restrictions. They may allow you to invest in specific properties or in pre-built, diversified portfolios of real estate.
We’re going to break down these different investment options in even more detail below. But first, let’s start a bit closer to home—literally.
Starting with Your Own Home
One of the most straightforward ways to invest in real estate is probably already on your financial to-do list, anyway: purchasing your own home.
Purchasing a home of your own allows you to kill two birds with one stone. You’re taking care of the basic need of shelter, while also leveraging the purchase to reap a host of financial benefits.
Here are just a few ways that owning a home can help you save and earn money.
Build equity: As discussed above, property ownership confers relatively immutable equity to the purchaser—that is, your home is a fairly safe, tangible asset to add to your overall investment portfolio.
Receive tax benefits: Certain homeowners’ expenses, including real estate taxes and home mortgage interest, are tax-deductible. And if you sell your home, you may exclude up to $250,000 of capital gains (or $500,000 if filing jointly) from your taxes.
Take advantage of appreciation: Even accounting for the 2008 crisis, the cost of homes and other properties have steadily increased over time for the past 50 years. So, the home you purchase today will likely be worth more than the price you paid for it in the future.
Stop paying rent: Although you’ll likely still have a mortgage payment and other expenses to cover as a homeowner, you won’t be paying rent to live in another person’s property. It’s a cost that is essentially entirely wasted, since you aren’t building home equity in the rental property.
Keep the value of your home improvements: When you own a home of your own, any improvements you make will add to the property’s total value, beefing up your asset as well as beautifying your living space.
House Hacking
Another way to make money by purchasing your own home is known as “house hacking“. It’s a real estate investment strategy wherein you leverage rental income from your primary residence to live there cost-free.
The term was originally coined by entrepreneur and author Brandon Turner, who wrote “The Book on Investing in Real Estate with No (and Low) Money Down” and “The Book on Rental Property Investing.”
House hacking may be done, for example, by purchasing a duplex. The investor rents out one unit at a price that covers the mortgage cost while living in the second unit. Some homeowners have also used space-share platforms like Airbnb to offset their housing costs in the same manner.
Real estate investors can use this strategy to pay off the property and even create a profit margin. This will eventually allow them to invest in more rental properties. Thus, house hacking is a great way to combine the personal financial benefits of homeownership with the long-term earning potential of other types of property investment.
Buying a Home Without a Huge Down Payment
Given the recent trends in the housing market, you may feel daunted by the prospect of becoming a homeowner. In 2023, the U.S. housing market experienced significant challenges, with home prices rising to near-record highs.
But there are many incentives and programs designed to make this large investment more feasible for first-time home buyers.
FHA (Federal Housing Administration) Loans may allow borrowers to purchase a home with a down payment as small as 3.5% of the purchase price and with credit scores as low as 580. (You may also be approved for an FHA loan with a lower credit score, but your minimum down payment may be higher.)
The USDA also offers low-cost loans to low- and moderate-income households purchasing homes in qualified rural areas.
Down Payment Assistance Programs offered by local governments and private firms can provide grants, loans, and educational materials to prospective home buyers
Many other financial institutions and organizations also have special incentives for those purchasing their first homes or low-income families in the housing market. Make sure you check with your local housing authority to learn more about what’s available in your area.
Active Investment Opportunities
Want to get hands-on? Here are the details on some of the most popular and accessible active real estate investment opportunities.
House Flipping
If you’ve ever watched more than thirty minutes of HGTV, chances are you’re at least passingly familiar with the idea of flipping houses. It’s basically where you purchase a home with the express intent of fixing it up and selling it (at a higher cost) later.
House flipping is a great way for investors to earn a significant profit. However, they do need to know how to complete the flip successfully without incurring too many costs. Expenses can quickly eat into the investment’s return.
Finding a Home to Flip
House flippers have to be able to recognize a home that may be slightly undervalued but would be able to sell well given the proper upgrades. This involves both an understanding of the area’s desirability and the types of improvements that generate increased home value.
House flippers are responsible for the entire cost of the home purchase. They must also pay for all the upgrades, which they may either do themselves or hire out to professionals.
Either way, flipping houses incurs a hefty up-front cost, and it does come at a risk. Even after you make all the improvements, it’s possible that the house will languish on the market.
This can mean racking up maintenance, taxes, and other expenses for the real estate investor. However, a properly executed, short-term flip can create a substantial profit margin in a relatively small period of time.
Wholesaling
Like house flippers, wholesalers purchase homes with the intent of selling them quickly. But, they aren’t planning to do any heavy lifting along the way.
Instead, wholesalers find properties that are undervalued for their market. They scoop them up and resell them to other investors at a price closer to their true value. Thus, earning the difference as a profit.
Rental Properties
While managing rental properties may seem like a straightforward and reliable way to earn income, it’s one of the most work-intensive approaches on this list. It does require enough up-front capital to purchase the property (or properties) in the first place. However, landlords do stand to see substantial and steady returns in exchange for the work and effort they put into their properties.
After purchasing a viable property, which needs to be well-maintained, in a desirable location, and well-advertised, landlords are responsible for filling that property with qualified tenants. This can involve a time-consuming and labor-intensive screening process.
After all, as a landlord, you’re giving your renters the keys to your investment—literally! It can be a very risky move if you don’t take the time to ensure your tenants are well-qualified.
Finding & Qualifying Tenants
Along with running a standard background check, landlords may also conduct interviews with and request credit reports from prospective renters, all of which takes time. And don’t forget: every month your rental property is unfilled is a waste of potential income.
Once you do find qualified tenants, you’ll be responsible for a host of obligations unless you hire a property management company. You’ll need to provide maintenance and repairs. You’ll also need to stay on top of rent collection and record-keeping. It can quickly become unwieldy once you have several properties.
You’ll also need to be sure you’re in compliance with all the renters’ rights that exist in your jurisdiction, including laws that regulate the eviction process. Of course, you’ll need to put in the work to find good renters and a well-maintained property in the first place. When done so, managing rentals can provide a smooth and steady source of income for relatively little active work.
Seller Financing
Want to buy an investment property with no money down? Look into seller financing or a land contract. This is where the seller acts as the bank. You make your mortgage payments, including interest, to the seller.
After a few years or so, you will have enough equity in the home to get a bank loan. You can then make a lump sum payment to the seller.
Private & Hard Money Lenders
Private money lenders generally charge between 6% to 12% on the money borrowed. Hard money lenders usually charge 10% to 18%. Hard money loans are not from banks. They are from individuals or businesses aimed at financing real estate investments for a return on their money.
Hard money loans are used by investors who don’t qualify for conventional financing. They are typically used to fund renovations. Once the house is finished or has some equity in it, the borrower then refinances to a conventional mortgage with a lower interest rate.
Airbnb, Vacation Rentals, and Space Sharing
Managing a traditional property, wherein renters sign a multi-month lease, is not the only way to make money from an investment property. Platforms like Airbnb have revolutionized the real estate market. They allow homeowners (and sometimes even renters) to make money by renting out their space on a temporary, per-night basis as a vacation rental.
What’s more, you don’t necessarily have to rent out an entire home or unit to participate. A private room, or even a couch in a shared living room, is acceptable for some travelers using these services.
Airbnb and other vacation rental platforms make it simple for a novice renter. You don’t need to have a huge amount of know-how to start earning money this way. In fact, you don’t even necessarily have to “invest” in any property at all. Some landlords may allow their renters to list their housing on Airbnb as a sublet.
Airbnb Laws
However, as this new form of investment property has expanded, it’s created housing crunches in some cities. It’s resulting in “Airbnb laws,” or short-term rental legislation. These laws may limit your ability to use your housing in this way.
Always check your local regulations before you list your space on Airbnb or another of these types of platforms. If you don’t own the space, ensure that short-term sublets are allowed. Check your lease or ask your landlord directly.
Real Estate Investing Groups and Passive Investing
You may have noticed that many of the active real estate investment opportunities listed above do require substantial upfront capital to get started. You can’t wholesale or flip a house if you can’t purchase the house in the first place!
Furthermore, these active strategies generally involve a high level of skill, effort, and responsibility. It may not be feasible for those committed to other full-time careers.
Fortunately, there are still other ways to get involved with real estate investing, even if you don’t want to own or manage tangible property. (Or if doing so is out of financial reach for you right now). These passive investment tactics can help you glean the benefits of real estate investing without taking on quite as much of a fiscal and physical burden.
Private Equity Funds
A private equity, or PE fund, pools contributions from various investors to make larger investments. They’re often limited liability partnerships. That means there are fixed periods during which investors do not have access to their holdings.
Instead, PE funds allow investors to earn gains on debt and equity assets passively, without putting in much active work or research. Asset allocation and investments are managed by a dedicated individual or group. They earn money through annual fees as well as profit sharing.
PE funds come in various types, including the following:
Core equity funds generally invest in established commercial properties. They don’t carry risks like needing major improvements or experiencing losses for lack of consumer demand. The core strategy is simultaneously the least risky among PE funds and, typically, the least gainful.
Core plus equity funds generally follow the core strategy, but take a few more risks on properties that may require minor upgrades. This leads to a higher risk-return ratio on average.
Value added equity funds may invest in commercial properties that require substantial upgrades or new management to operate at their full potential. They may also seek to sell the property after improvements are made to create an additional profit margin.
Opportunistic equity funds offer the highest potential rewards, along with the highest risk. Investment properties purchased via these funds may need new construction or even land acquisitions. The payoff of such a new business venture is all but guaranteed. Furthermore, these developments take time, which means your investment capital may be tied up for longer. However, when they pay off, opportunistic equity funds see some of the best returns of the bunch.
Although PE funds are powerful real estate investment engines, they do often have high minimum investment requirements, generally not less than $100,000. Some funds may also be limited to accredited or institutional investors who can demonstrate available means.
Opportunity Funds
Opportunity funds operate on a similar model to private equity funds but are specifically used to make investments in qualified Opportunity Zones. These are economically distressed areas designated by the state and certified by the Secretary of the U.S. Treasury. Opportunity funds are legally required to invest 90% of their assets into properties in these Opportunity Zones.
Because these areas tend to be up-and-coming (and because tax benefits can incentivize investors to support them), opportunity funds often see substantial capital gains for their investors. And taxes incurred on those gains can be deferred until December 26, 2026.
That means the longer the investment is held before that date, the lower your overall tax liability will be. And opportunity fund investments held for at least ten years prior can expect their capital returns to be permanently excluded from capital gains taxes.
Of course, this strategy requires parting with your investment capital for a significant period of time. It’s best for those who can afford to put down the money to play the long game. If you can, however, investing in one is a great way to see substantial returns for almost zero effort.
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
A real estate investment trust(REIT) is a company that invests in commercial properties. As an investor, you purchase shares of this company just as you would any other. You earn income through its debt and equity assets in the form of shareholder dividends.
REITs operate similarly to mutual funds. They provide an excellent way for the average earner to experience the benefits of real estate investing. You don’t have to have a huge amount of capital to get started, as minimum investment requirements may be quite low.
However, they may carry high investment fees, especially in the case of private REITs (i.e., those not publicly traded on the stock market). Fees at these companies may run as high as 15%. REITs may also be illiquid and keep your money locked up for longer periods of time.
Online Real Estate Investment Platforms
In this digital, all-sharing-all-the-time age, most of us have already heard of crowdfunding. Real estate investments are no exception to the rules of the new millennium.
Online real estate investment platforms have begun springing up. They can make real estate gains achievable for average investors who may not have the towering net worth or accreditation status necessary to buy into more formal funds. Depending on the specific company, you might be able to choose specific investment properties to fund or buy into a diversified portfolio of investments.
Fees and minimum investment requirements are relatively low on real estate crowdfunding platforms. For instance, Fundrise lets you get started with just $500. That is much less than you’d have to pay to get in on most types of active investments! Check out our full review of Fundrise here.
Ready to Get Started Investing in Real Estate?
As you can see, there are several ways to start investing without saving up a five- or six-figure sum. And if you do it right, your investments can actually help you reach those high savings goals. You can then fund other types of investment projects!
However, as with any financial objective, planning and strategizing is key. Saving up as much capital as possible will help you get the best return on your investment once you’re ready.
You can’t allocate your assets without first keeping track of them, and to achieve that, you need to create a budget. If you’re in debt, aggressively paying it off will free you of a weighty financial anchor, so check out these powerful debt relief options.
Finally, if you intend to purchase property either to live in or as an investment opportunity, your credit score matters. It’s as simple as that. If your credit score isn’t quite where you want it to be, take these steps to raise it. Doing so will allow you to get the best interest rate once you’re ready to make the big purchase.
Thursday’s trading session provided an unpleasant but worthwhile reminder that “data dependence” cuts both ways in terms of its impact on the bond market. Yesterday’s session saw weaker data help rates avoid a break above 4% while today’s data arguably did the opposite. None of the above was a very big deal in the bigger picture, but Friday’s jobs report certainly has the power to change the tone if it falls far enough from forecast.
ADP Employment
164k vs 115k f’cast, 101k prev
Jobless Claims
202k vs 216k f’cast, 220k prev
08:34 AM
Weaker overnight, led by Europe. More selling after data. 10yr up 7bps at 3.989. MBS down 10 ticks (.31).
12:20 PM
Slightly choppy, but mostly sideways all morning. MBS down 9 ticks (.28). 10yr up 7.3bps at 3.993.
02:19 PM
MBS are now down to the weakest levels of the day with 5.5 coupons down 3/8ths in total. 10yr yields are near their highs, up 8.1bps at 4.001.
Download our mobile app to get alerts for MBS Commentary and streaming MBS and Treasury prices.
Mortgage rates have plummeted in recent weeks, boosting the prospects of homebuyers previously stifled by high borrowing costs.
Many forecasters predict mortgage rates will drop further, however, since the Federal Reserve expects to cut its benchmark interest rate this year.
Those circumstances pose a quandary for buyers: Jump into a newly attractive market that promises thousands of dollars in gains or wait for the possibility of an even more favorable one.
Homebuyers would be well-served by a leap into the current market, since the movement of mortgage rates often proves difficult to predict and purchasers reserve the ability to refinance if rates continue to fall, experts told ABC News.
But that approach does carry risks, some experts added, noting the loss of additional time to pad one’s finances as well as the possibility of a decline in home value after the purchase if the market worsens.
“If you need to buy a property, go ahead and buy it,” Marti Subrahmanyam, a professor of finance and business at New York University, told ABC News. “Don’t try to time the market.”
Last year, mortgage rates reached their highest level in more than two decades.
But rates have declined sharply over the past few months. As of last week, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage stood at roughly 6.6%, according to FreddieMac. That amounts to more than a percentage point drop from a peak reached in October.
Each percentage point decrease in a mortgage rate can take away thousands or tens of thousands of dollars in costs each year, depending on the price of the house.
The fall of mortgage rates coincided with an announcement from the Fed that it expects to cut interest rates this year by an amount equivalent to three quarter-point reductions.
Such plans would reverse a near-historic series of rate increases over the past year that sent mortgage rates soaring.
Mortgage rates closely track with 10-year treasury bond yields, which last month reached lows last seen in August. Those yields are highly sensitive to the Fed’s interest rate moves.
“Treasury rates are coming down — and as treasury rates come down, so will mortgage rates,” Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, told ABC News.
Even though mortgage rates could continue to fall, experts said, it makes sense to jump into the market because shifts in rates often defy expectations.
“I would be wary of advising prospective homebuyers to delay their purchase in hopes of better terms in the future,” Julia Fonseca, a professor at the Gies College of Business at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. “It’s very hard to time the market.”
Lu Liu, a professor at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, echoed this view.
“Households should make their housing decisions in line with their needs,” Liu told ABC News. “It’s very hard to accurately predict long-term interest rates.”
Plus, experts added, homebuyers can opt to refinance their homes at relatively low cost if rates move further downward.
“It’s quite efficient to refinance,” Wachter said.
This approach does carry some downsides, however, some experts noted.
If homebuyers move quickly, they cut down the time available to add to their savings before taking on the significant expense of a mortgage.
Purchasers also run the risk of snatching up a house right before the market declines, in which case the home could lose value almost immediately.
“The risks are that housing prices may plummet,” Wachter said, noting that such an outcome would likely require a severe recession that triggers layoffs and tanks demand for homes.
Optimism has grown about the outlook for the U.S. economy, however. Experts widely expect the economy to slow but not shrink over the next year.
“That risk of significant declines in housing prices I believe is off the table,” Wachter said.
Ultimately, the decision to buy a house requires a case-by-case assessment of factors that extend well beyond borrowing costs, some experts said.
“Whether now is a good time to jump back in depends on your personal situation,” Liu said.
Investing is more than just saving for the future. It’s about creating a wealth-building strategy to truly make your nest egg grow. That’s because investing typically earns you a higher interest rate than if you put all of your money in a traditional savings account.
While historically low rates are great for when you need to borrow money, they’re pretty dismal when you’re ready to start saving. Investing does come with a higher risk, but you can generally mitigate it with diversified holdings and long-term positions. Plus, it’s easier than ever.
You’re not limited to working with an expensive brokerage or saving a huge amount to reach a minimum investment threshold. Now you can even invest by using an app on your smartphone with the leftover change from your checking account.
Ready to learn how to invest? We’ve got you covered with everything you need to know.
What is investing, and why is it important?
Investing is the act of putting money into financial instruments, such as stocks, bonds, or mutual funds, with the expectation of earning a profit. It allows individuals to save and grow their wealth over time, and can provide a financial cushion for the future, such as during retirement.
The Benefits of Investing
The reason money grows so aggressively through investing is that it’s powered by compound returns. Investments are typically meant for a long-term strategy, rather than taking out money every few months.
When you leave your money untouched in an investment vehicle that offers greater returns than a savings account, your gains continue to compound.
No matter what age you are, it’s a good time to start investing. If you’re younger, you can create a strong foundation to truly accumulate wealth over the coming years.
Even if you’re older, you may be able to catch up faster because of those higher returns. Don’t worry about getting started — even if you can only contribute a small amount each month, you’ll set up the infrastructure and challenge yourself to contribute more as you begin to earn more.
How to Reduce Your Risks in Investing
When investing long-term, you can’t think about your everyday gains and losses; instead, think about how your allocations are performing in the long run. You do want to review your investment choices as you reach different stages in your life; in particular, becoming less aggressive as you get older.
In fact, most investors don’t partake in volatile day trading. They spread their money over diversified investment types to help reduce risk and maximize returns over time.
There will always be economic cycles with highs and lows. But even downturns can be mitigated in your investment portfolio by spacing out your money over different product categories as well as different economic sectors. This can go a long way in protecting your money over time.
If you do want to try out some riskier investments, make sure you view that money as discretionary risk capital, meaning your livelihood and well-being won’t be impacted if you lose it all.
How to Invest Your Money
Diversification is essential, as is setting reminders to review the performance of your picks, such as a quarterly review. It also helps you adjust your asset allocation based on your own financial goals. Are you trying to retire earlier than you initially planned? Are you able to contribute more each month?
With these strategies in mind, here is a comprehensive review of different investment vehicles you can take advantage of to accumulate wealth over time.
Retirement Accounts
Retirement accounts are probably the most common and accessible types of investment accounts. You may be able to open a retirement account through your employer or open one on your own. Each type comes with a different tax treatment, so review the details carefully.
Traditional IRA
A traditional IRA is a tax-advantaged account that allows you to deduct your contributions each year. Once you start making retirement withdrawals, you’ll pay the IRS based on the tax bracket you’re in at that time.
They do have annual contribution limits. For 2024, it’s $7,000 unless you’re 50 years or older, in which case you can contribute up to $8,000.
If you want to take a distribution before you reach the age of 59 ½, you’ll have to pay a 10% penalty on top of your taxes. There are a few exceptions to the penalty, such as when you use the funds for a down payment on a house or qualified college expenses.
Another plus is that there is no income limit for qualifying, unlike other IRA options.
Roth IRA
A Roth IRA is another tax-advantaged retirement account. However, it comes with a few key differences compared to a traditional IRA. You don’t get a tax deduction when you make your contributions, but you do get to deduct your withdrawals once you reach retirement age.
If you think you’ll be in a higher tax bracket once you hit retirement, this could be a useful tool to save on your taxes later in life. For Roth IRAs, the contribution limit is between $7,000 and $8,000, depending on your age.
However, there’s another qualification you’ll have to meet: the income limit.
The more you earn, the less you’re able to contribute. Your contribution limit is reduced when you earn more than $230,000 for those married filing jointly and more than $146,000 for those filing single or as head of household.
Rollover IRA
A rollover IRA is one way to transfer an existing 401(k) from your employer once you decide to leave the company. Sometimes an employer lets you leave it there or transfer your funds to a retirement plan at your new place of work. Whether those two scenarios don’t apply to you or you prefer the flexibility of an IRA, a rollover may be a suitable option for you.
Both traditional and Roth IRAs generally allow you to bring in transfer retirement accounts. Just be sure to check your eligibility for either type, as well as any relevant fees you may incur during the transfer process.
SEP IRA
This type of IRA is designed specifically for self-employed individuals. While traditional and Roth IRAs are often used to supplement retirement savings accrued through employer plans, a SEP IRA allows for higher contribution limits when you work for yourself. The contribution is the lesser of either 25% of your income or $69,000.
Its tax treatment is the same as traditional IRAs. If you have employees, however, you must provide each one with their own SEP IRA and contribute the same salary percentage as you contribute to your own. Still, this can be a strong option to speed up your retirement investments, particularly if you don’t have employees or only have a few.
Stocks
Investing in stocks is typically best for active investors, and ideally, someone who already has experience in the stock market. If you’re just getting started, consider your stock investments as play money rather than something you need to rely on to meet your future financial goals. Because individual stocks are riskier, be sure to diversify the ones you choose to invest in.
Buying and selling stocks can result in hefty commission fees. Consider a buy-and-hold approach to avoid accumulating too many expenses, especially when you’re first getting started.
While you no longer need an established broker to execute trades, you can instead create a brokerage account with one of the larger brokerage firms. Your best bet is to compare fees as well as available research to help you make informed trading decisions.
Mutual Funds
Mutual funds combine your money with other investors to purchase securities for the entire group. The portfolio is professionally overseen by a manager, who then selects different types of stocks, bonds, and other securities on your behalf.
You can gauge the performance of a particular mutual fund by comparing it to its chosen benchmark, such as the S&P 500. If it regularly performs better over the course of a three to five-year period, then it could be a good investment choice.
Mutual funds are a popular choice because you generally don’t need a lot of money to get started. You can often choose one within your retirement account to get around any minimum requirements, or even set up a recurring investment amount.
Plus, mutual funds are extremely diversified, often holding as much as 100 securities in each one. This helps to minimize your risk as well as the amount of time you spend managing your portfolio.
Index Fund
An index fund is a popular type of mutual fund that follows a predetermined investment methodology rather than having a portfolio manager pick the included securities.
For example, you could choose a Dow Jones Industrial Average index fund, which includes 30 powerhouse companies in the U.S. Whiles that’s a large-scale example, different investment firms create their own index funds for investors to conveniently choose from.
Another benefit of investing in an index fund is that transaction costs are often lower, as are their mutual fund expense ratios. Many index funds are also geared toward investors with lower balances. While some firms have high minimum opening balances of $100,000 or more, you can get started with much less when you pick an index fund.
Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs)
An exchange-traded fund, or ETF, trades the same way a stock does while tracking a certain basket of assets. There are countless types of ETFs to choose from based on your investment goals.
Common options include market, bond, commodity, foreign market, and alternative investment ETFs. They’re bought and sold like stocks throughout the day, but a major difference is that ETFs can issue and redeem their shares at any point.
There are many benefits that go along with an ETF. For starters, you have more control over when you pay your capital gains tax. There are also lower fees, although you’ll still pay brokerage commissions. Finally, while mutual funds can only be settled after the stock market closes for the day, an ETF allows you to trade at any time.
Bonds
Bonds are a good tool to have in your investment portfolio because they are a low-risk option. Different types of bonds include corporate, municipal, and Treasury bonds. Bonds are fixed-income investments, so you know exactly what to expect when those payout dates come throughout the year. Such predictability does come with a few downsides, though.
First, bonds come with a fixed investment period. If you invest in a longer-term bond, then you’re stuck with it until it matures — unless you decide to sell. But there’s a bit of risk involved there, involving the interest.
Bond rates aren’t locked in, so yours could be devalued if the same issuer bumps up the interest rate at a later time. So if new investors get a better interest rate than you did, you’re still locked into your lower rate. In general, bonds generally come with lower growth than other investments, but that’s considered the trade-off for a lower-risk vehicle.
Real Estate
People always need a place to live, so real estate investing can be an attractive option for investors. There are several ways to do this that account for your desired risk tolerance as well as your desired level of involvement.
Investment Properties
If you feel the drive to own property, an investment property is one way to make a real estate investment. Depending on how you choose to manage your property, this can amount to a steady stream of passive income.
Over time, you could also benefit from market appreciation, although that’s not necessarily guaranteed. There are risks involved with investment properties. Unlike investing in a stock or fund, a physical property involves expenses, such as upkeep, marketing, and a management firm if you want a hands-off experience.
You’ll also need some cash to get started, since most investment property loans require at least a 25% down payment. Moreover, the mortgage is considered part of your debt-to-income ratio, which could affect your future financing opportunities.
If you ever want to cash out on your investment, you’ll be subject to the market value of that moment. Plus, it’s a cumbersome, illiquid way to invest money. Still, the returns can be much greater than traditional investments, making investment properties an attractive option to some people.
REITs
If you would like to invest in real estate without the hassle of acting as a landlord, consider a real estate investment trust, or REIT. These are traded on the stock exchange and can also be offered in the form of a mutual fund or ETF.
Returns can increase as property values rise and generally focus on a portfolio of commercial properties. Shareholders also benefit because REITs don’t pay corporate tax, which helps boost returns as well.
You can pick what sector you want to invest in, such as healthcare, residential, hotel, or industrial REITs. Each comes with separate risks that should be weighed thoughtfully. REIT shares can be purchased through a broker, and each one will have its own fee structure to review as well.
Crowdfunding
Real estate crowdfunding is a type of peer-to-peer lending that is growing traction among investors of all levels. New fintech companies are popping up to compete with REITs, claiming better returns. So, what’s the difference between REITs and real estate crowdfunding sites?
The most significant difference is that instead of choosing a portfolio of properties within a certain asset class, you can choose specific commercial properties in which to invest. While individual investors traditionally wouldn’t be able to invest directly in projects like these, crowdfunding lets you enter these markets with a much smaller amount of cash.
One of the benefits is that you can do much more specialized research to determine what property to invest in. The process is much less passive than REITs. On the downside, however, the risk potential could be higher since your money is riding on one single building rather than a diversified portfolio.
See also: How to Build Generational Wealth
Platforms for Investing Your Money
There are many ways to start investing your money. A financial advisor, though charging extra fees, may provide you with much-needed guidance and education, especially if you’re a beginner. But if you prefer a little less hand-holding, you can consider two other options as well.
Online Brokers
Online brokerages give you the convenience of investing online with the added benefit of controlling what you invest in. So, it’s definitely a more hands-on process than the robo-advisor. Like robo-advisors, however, most online brokers don’t have a minimum balance requirement, so they’re still quite accessible to all types of investors.
Instead of paying a percentage of your funds, online brokers usually charge transaction fees for trades, as well as one-off fees. On the plus side, you’re not limited to your choosing certain funds, as you are with a robo-advisor. If you’d like, you can even select individual stocks. Online brokers and robo-advisors cater to two different types of investors, so the best choice depends on your specific goals.
Robo-Advisors
Enlisting the help of a robo-advisor can be helpful for beginning investors or anyone who wishes to utilize a “set it and forget it” mentality for their portfolio.
Robo-advisors don’t use human financial advisors; instead, they rely on computer algorithms to determine your portfolio allocations. Many of them also use tax harvesting strategies to decrease your tax burden at the end of the year.
Service fees are low and generally charged as a percentage of your invested funds. The transparency is excellent for new investors, and you can also benefit from the low minimum balances. Different robo-advisors offer different investment vehicles you can choose from. You can also pick one based on their investing strategy; most, for instance, pick from ETFs and index funds.
Bottom Line
There are a slew of intricacies for building your investment strategy and making your money work for you. Start with a plan that makes sense for your risk tolerance while still leaving room for growth.
You can access countless resources, from free online tutorials to paid financial advisors, to ensure you have a robust investment plan that will generate a passive income strategy to meet your goals.
How to Invest FAQs
What are the different types of investments?
There are many types of investments. The most popular investments include stocks, bonds, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and real estate. Each type of investment carries its own level of risk and potential return.
What are the risks of investing?
Investing involves risk, including the potential for loss of principal. The value of investments can fluctuate and may be affected by market conditions, economic events, and other factors.
It’s essential to understand the risks associated with any investment and to consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
How do I choose the best investments for me?
The best investments for you will depend on your financial goals, how much risk you can tolerate, and other personal factors. It can be helpful to consult an investment advisor or do your own research to determine which investments are suitable for you.
It’s also wise to diversify your portfolio, or invest in various assets, to spread risk and potentially maximize returns.
How much money do I need to start investing?
There is no minimum amount required to start investing. In fact, you can get started investing with $500 or less. However, you should first have a sufficient emergency fund in place before investing. Some investments may have minimum investment requirements, such as mutual funds or certain types of brokerage accounts.
What is a brokerage account?
A brokerage account is a type of investment account that allows you to buy and sell assets such as stocks, mutual funds, ETFs, and bonds. When you open a brokerage account, you typically do so with a financial institution, such as a bank, a credit union, or an online brokerage firm.
To open a brokerage account, you will generally need to provide some personal information, such as your name, address, and Social Security number. You will also typically need to make a deposit of money into the account, which you can use to buy investments.
Once you have a brokerage account, you can place orders to buy or sell investments online, over the phone, or through a broker. The brokerage firm will execute the trades on your behalf and will typically charge a commission or fee for the service.
Brokerage accounts offer a convenient way to manage your investments and to buy and sell assets easily and quickly. They also provide a range of tools and resources to help you make informed investment decisions, such as market research, news and analysis, and educational materials.
Can I invest in stocks with just $100?
Yes, it is possible to invest in stocks with a relatively small amount of money, such as $100. Many brokerage firms have no minimum initial deposit requirement and allow you to start investing with whatever amount of money you have available.
How do I diversify my investment portfolio?
Diversification is the process of investing in various assets to spread risk and potentially maximize returns. This can be achieved by investing in different types of assets, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate, or by investing in different sectors or industries within a particular asset class. To maintain a diversified portfolio, review and adjust it periodically.
What is a financial advisor and do I need one?
A financial advisor is a professional who provides advice on financial matters, such as investing and saving for retirement. Whether you need a financial advisor will depend on your financial goals, risk tolerance, and investment experience. Some people may prefer to handle their own investments, while others may benefit from the guidance of an investment advisor.
How do I determine my risk tolerance?
Risk tolerance is an individual’s willingness to accept financial risk in pursuit of potential returns. Factors that may affect how much risk you’re willing to take include age, financial goals, and personal comfort level with risk.
Can I lose money by investing?
Investing always carries some level of risk, as the value of your investments can fluctuate and be impacted by various market conditions and economic events. It’s crucial to understand the risks associated with any investment and to consider your risk tolerance and investment objectives before making any investment decisions.
Diversifying your portfolio and not investing more money than you can afford to lose can help mitigate potential losses. Always be sure to do your research and consider seeking investment advice from a financial advisor before making any decisions.
ISM Outshines NFP, But Neither Ended Up Leaving a Mark
By:
Matthew Graham
Fri, Jan 5 2024, 5:17 PM
ISM Outshines NFP, But Neither Ended Up Leaving a Mark
It has happened before, but it’s not common: those Fridays where bonds move in one direction in response to the jobs report only to move even more in the opposite direction after the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. Considering that both moves were ultimately erased today, we don’t feel too compelled to overanalyze, but ISM definitely had the upper hand. Chalk that up to the jobs report being not as strong as the headline might suggest and to ISM’s employment component being staggeringly weaker. Bonds escaped with minimal damage–especially MBS as they don’t have to worry about an auction cycle like Treasuries next week.
Nonfarm Payrolls
216k vs 170k f’cast, 173k prev
Unemployment Rate
3.7% vs 3.8% f’cast
Participation rate
down 0.3% (implies higher unemployment)
ISM Services PMI
50.6 vs 52.6 f’cast, 52.7 prev
ISM Services Employment
lowest since July 2020
ISM Service Prices
57.4 vs 58.3 prev
08:57 AM
Weaker overnight with additional selling after jobs report. Some resilience now. MBS back to pre-NFP levels, down a quarter point on the day. 10yr up only 5bps at 4.055 after being as high as 4.10
10:11 AM
More gains after ISM data. 10yr down 4.5bps at 3.959. MBS up 1 tick (0.03).
12:35 PM
post-ISM rally fading. 10yr up 3.2bps at 4.036 and MBS down nearly an eighth of a point.
02:14 PM
Holding ground now, slightly better than the early PM swoon. MBS down only 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.027.
05:13 PM
MBS outperform into the close, ultimately hitting unchanged levels as Treasuries ticked up 4.7bps to 4.051. Apprehension over next week’s auction cycle? Curve steepening favoring shorter durations? Either way we’ll take it.
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When assessing December’s Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) volume data for December 2023, Reverse Market Insight (RMI) used a choice word as the title for its commentary: “thud.”
Amid an already challenging operating environment observed throughout 2023, both HECM endorsement volume and HECM-backed Securities (HMBS) issuance closed out the year on a low note, with both metrics falling lower from the month before, according to data from RMI and New View Advisors.
Endorsement volume falls slightly
While not a pronounced drop, HECM endorsements fell 3% to end the month with 2,190 loans, but that general drop came with a few notable exceptions according to RMI. Geographically, four of the ten tracked regions outperformed figures from the prior month, while four of the top 10 lenders also posted modest gains in the final month of the year.
One of the top 10 lenders that posted gains, however, was Open Mortgage. In its commentary, RMI speculated that this could be due to the company aiming to close out its pipeline of reverse mortgage loans in process following the announcement of the reverse mortgage division’s closure in November, as first reported by RMD.
All things considered, the drop observed last month was not a big surprise, according to Jon McCue, director of client relations at RMI.
“Honestly, the endorsement numbers for December were not all that surprising given the dip in case number assignments we saw in September and October,” he said. “The obvious culprit is still rates. Not only have [HECM-to-HECM] refinances more or less dried up, but it remains difficult to qualify new borrowers as well. When November and December case numbers are published, we’ll have a better idea of what to expect for Q1 2024. Beyond that will depend on what happens to rates.”
How industry consolidation could shape the business
Likely to have a big impact on industry performance metrics in 2024 is all the exits and consolidations we have observed throughout 2023: not only did Open Mortgage exit the business, but Finance of America Reverse (FAR) acquired former industry leader American Advisors Group (AAG), while Guild Mortgage acquired Cherry Creek Mortgage placing both companies in the top 10 in the final months of the year.
“Any time we see exits and consolidations we tend to see a dip in industry production for a time,” McCue said. “In the case of large institutions such as Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and MetLife, we never regained their lost volume. This is a different situation.”
For instance, the AAG brand still remains despite the FAR acquisition, but the exit of Open Mortgage and the ongoing ripples caused by Reverse Mortgage Funding (RMF)’s bankruptcy will likely impact the business more notably, he explained.
“It is the other players such as the production lost from RMF, what will be lost from Open, and even smaller companies who are moving on that we’ll feel for a short time until others move into the space again,” he said.
Securities issuance falls further
HMBS issuance in December totaled $457 million, a figure “substantially off” from the November total of $561 million, according to publicly available Ginnie Mae data and private sources compiled by New View Advisors. A total of 79 HMBS pools were issued in December, which — not including March 2023’s total — is the lowest HMBS issuance figure since 2014, the firm explained.
HMBS issuance in 2023 came out to $6.5 billion in total, less than half of the record-breaking figure of nearly $14 billion seen in 2022. But New View has been warning for virtually the entirety of 2023 that the year’s issuance levels would not come close to those record-breaking levels.
“December production reflects applications and originations from 2-3 months prior when the expected rate was at or near its highs,” said Michael McCully, partner at New View Advisors. “We don’t expect January to be much different.”
Despite what New View calls a substantial drop, the total issuance figure for the year was largely in line with what the firm had been expecting, he told RMD.
“[The figure is] in line with expectations,” McCully said. “HMBS issuance and HECM endorsements were both cut in half from 2022 to 2023.”
Looking ahead
If the rate environment is kinder than what had been seen for much of last year, there are signs of encouragement, McCully said.
“Expect origination volume to increase if the 10-year treasury stays below 4% and home values remain stable,” McCully said. “The increased maximum claim amount [i.e. the HECM limit] for 2024 should help volume, too.”
New View also noted that 25 of the issued pools in December featured “aggregate pool size [of] less than $1 million,” according to its commentary. “Issuers are taking advantage of Ginnie Mae’s provision to issue pools as small as $250,000. This represents $15.6 million of [unpaid principal balance (UPB)] that may not otherwise have been issued in December.”
A Ginnie Mae policy issued in September 2023 allows for the securitization of multiple participations related to a particular HECM in any one issuance month, which could also help the program, New View said.
Savings bonds are a cornerstone of conservative investing, offering a secure and reliable means to grow one’s wealth over time. Yet, many people remain unclear about the intricacies of this financial instrument.
In this article, we aim to demystify this valuable financial tool by delving into its core characteristics, advantages, and practical applications. Whether you’re an individual seeking to diversify your investment portfolio or a professional aiming to optimize your financial strategies, understanding the ins and outs of savings bonds can be a game-changer.
What is a savings bond?
Savings bonds are a low-risk, U.S. government-backed investment that you can buy to help raise funds over time. When you purchase one, you are loaning money to the government. In return, the government promises to repay the amount you invested with interest.
Electronic savings bonds are simple to buy, safe to invest in, and affordable. You receive interest payments, and the bonds purchased can go to many purposes later, such as qualified education expenses. The purchase amounts range from a minimum investment of $25 – $10,000. However, there are maximum purchase limits per calendar year depending on the type of bond you purchase.
How do savings bonds work?
Think of a savings bond as a loan to the government. While there are a few rules, the main idea is that the government promises to pay back your loan through interest payments.
The government sets the interest rate for the loan, which doesn’t change for the bond’s duration. You buy these bonds at face value.
Savings bonds offer fixed terms, meaning they mature at a specific date. Once they reach that state, you can redeem them for their total value – plus interest.
The type of bond you purchase determines the maturity date. Some can take up to 30 years, while others take much less time.
Different Types of Savings Bonds
There are two main types of savings bonds in the US today, both a fixed rate, while paper bonds are slowly being phased out.
The U.S. Government issues two main types at face value: Series I Bonds and Series EE Bonds. Below is an overview of what each entails.
Series I Bonds
A Series I U.S. Savings Bond is a type of bond that offers a fixed interest rate that adjusts for inflation. The bonds are sold at face value, meaning that the price you purchase savings bonds for is what it is worth once the bond reaches maturity. With I Bonds, you can protect your investment from the variable inflation rate.
The government sets the I Bond inflation rate twice annually, once for each upcoming six-month period.
The current interest rate is 5.27% for I Bonds issued between November 1, 2023 to April 30, 2024.
I Bonds can earn interest for up to 30 years, unless you decide to cash them out beforehand. You can buy them from the U.S. Treasury using a TreasuryDirect account, or purchase paper bonds using your IRS tax refund.
Series EE Bonds
Series EE Savings Bonds are savings bonds that earn interest regularly for up to 30 years. The government guarantees that the Series EE Bond doubles in value in 20 years, even if it needs to add money at 20 years to reach that number.
Series EE bonds differ from I bonds in multiple ways. Primarily, they are not inflation adjustable. The second is that new EE bonds are only available for electronic purchase.
The government applies the bond’s interest rate to a new principal every six months. A principal is the sum of the previous principal and the fixed rate of interest in the past six months.
As of 2005, new EE Bonds earn a fixed interest rate set on the day you buy a bond. After 20 years pass, the government may adjust the interest on it.
When should I consider a savings bond?
You can buy a savings bond anytime, depending on your finances and long-term investment goals. There are multiple reasons why buying bonds is a good idea for later, however, such as:
Their low-risk nature
They generate a stable and low-risk investment
The interest earned on them is exempt from state and local taxes
Any investor with $25 and above can buy them
Bonds pay back, helping you plan for the future
Enjoying the stability of a fixed rate of interest announced twice annually
Are savings bonds worth it?
Savings bonds are worth the investment if you are looking for a stable way to increase your money at a reliable, fixed rate. If you want faster and higher returns, saving bonds may not be your best option. Remember that you do have to pay federal taxes as the bonds accrue interest, but not state or local taxes.
Ultimately, the selling point for purchasing a savings bond is a stable and safe return on your investment. Not all investments you make come with a guarantee as solid as the one you can get from the government.
The TreasuryDirect website also lets you send an announcement to someone to let them know you purchased a savings bond for them as a gift.
How do I redeem my savings bonds?
Redeeming a savings bond is usually an uncomplicated and seamless process. If you purchased your bonds electronically, such as the Series EE or Series I bonds, you could cash them in through your online TreasuryDirect account. Once you do so, you will receive your money in a checking or savings account of your choice in a few business days.
If you purchased older paper savings bonds, you could redeem them at financial institutions where you have an account. The option to cash in a bond at a bank or credit union depends on how long you had an account with them.
For older series of savings bonds, like HH bonds, you can’t redeem them through banks or credit unions. The FAQ section will cover HH bonds, as the government no longer issues them.
For HH Bonds, you must complete a specific form called the FS Form 1522. Once completed, you must mail the bond with a certified signature and direct deposit information to the Treasury Retail Securities Services.
Early Withdrawal Penalty
Sometimes, a circumstance may force you to withdraw your savings bond early. Although not advisable as savings bonds are long-term investments, you still have options when something unexpected happens.
Series EE and Series I savings bonds have an early withdrawal penalty if you redeem them less than five years after their issue date.
So, if you cash in the bond before the five-year mark, you receive the principal amount plus the interest earned up to that point minus the interest accrued in the past three months.
After the five-year mark, there are no penalties for redeeming your savings bond. You can receive the total value of the principal and interest earned.
Savings Bonds vs. Savings Accounts vs. Certificates of Deposit (CDs)
A savings account and a CD are financial products that banks and credit unions offer. With a savings account, you can deposit money and earn interest on electronic bonds over time. A CD is when you keep a specific amount of money with the bank for a timeframe in exchange for fixed interest rates.
Although savings accounts and CDs are low-risk investment options, they are not backed by the government like savings bonds. And unlike savings bonds, you must pay federal, state, and local income taxes for CDs and savings accounts.
Benefits and Drawbacks of Investing in Savings Bonds
In terms of benefits, an electronic bond comes with low-risk, guaranteed returns backed by the government. You can use them as a future nest egg, for retirement, or to fund a child or grandchild’s education. Moreover, they come with tax benefits. The federal government allows exemptions on state and local taxes and are simple to buy and later redeem. Keep in mind that you do have to pay federal income tax on them in some cases.
One drawback to electronic bonds is the time it takes to make a solid amount of interest like a money market account. Additionally, they do not offer the potential for capital gains, only from the interest accrued over time. Finally, if you do not have a Series I bond, you do not have sufficient protection against inflation.
Bottom Line
Bottom line: Savings bonds are an excellent investment option if you are looking for guaranteed returns by the United States government. Although it takes time to get their full benefit, they are a reliable way to save money, helping you plan for the future or pay tuition for college. You don’t have to worry about a variable interest rate, and the interest payment is always stable.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where can I purchase savings bonds?
You can purchase savings bonds online from the U.S. Department of the Treasury through their online platform, www.treasurydirect.gov. Buying from the treasury guarantees safety and security. Paper bonds can only be purchased for Series I U.S. savings bonds. Additionally, you can only pay for a paper bond using a tax return.
What is an HH savings bond?
HH savings bonds offer semi-annual interest directly to the bondholder. They were only available as a paper bond by exchanging Series EE or Series E bonds. The government discontinued them in 2004, and they are no longer available for sale. However, some HH bonds are still redeemable depending on their year of purchase.
When can I redeem my savings bonds?
Savings bonds can be redeemed after a minimum holding period, which is typically one year. However, if you redeem the bond before it is five years old, you will lose the last three months of interest as a penalty. Bonds reach their full face value at maturity, which is usually 20 to 30 years from the issue date.
Verification, Lien Release Products; Relying on Interest Rate Predictions? STRATMOR Outlook
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Verification, Lien Release Products; Relying on Interest Rate Predictions? STRATMOR Outlook
By: Rob Chrisman
Thu, Jan 4 2024, 11:00 AM
“My dad always said to me, ‘Work until your bank account looks like a phone number’ so I did. Account balance: $9.11.” You can work harder, or you can work smarter. (I have severe doubts about the validity of this clip; it gave me the willies watching it.) Swimming is certainly a competitive sport. Do you have competitors? Most businesses do. Which is a reason that hotels offer free ice, thanks to a hotel chain that began in Memphis, TN. If the Mortgage Bankers Association is right, and volume does pick up some in 2024, that doesn’t mean the competition to do that business is going to go away. Numbers game. 5 calls, 25 a week, one closed loan $4k, two loans $8k. At these rates, less competition. If rates come down, competition for inventory just increases. (Today’s podcast can be found here, and this week’s is sponsored by the STRATMOR Group, the data-driven mortgage advisory. At STRATMOR, insights and knowledge are applied to guide mortgage clients to make sound strategic decisions and take actions that improve their success. Hear an interview with the STRATMOR Group’s Garth Graham on if industry forecasts for a better market should lead to industry optimism.)
Broker and Lender Programs and Software
Servicers know how much work it takes to release a lien once a mortgage has been paid off. That’s why they’re turning to the new Automated Lien ReleaseSM (ALR) capability in the ICE MSP® servicing system to help lighten the load at the end of a loan. ALR combines document creation and automated workflows to streamline the lien release process. It helps with eSigning and eRecording where available (and prints the release package for wet sign where it’s not) to help servicers cut through the delays and release liens faster. Read the press release to see how you can start releasing fully paid liens in days instead of weeks.
Truv is now an approved third-party service provider supporting Freddie Mac Loan Product Advisor® asset and income modeler (AIM) Revolution Mortgage estimates that they can save up to $20,000 in cost on verifications with TRUV over competitors. “Let’s talk about our documentation costs and those giant monopolies that are out there and laughing at customers and increasing prices because they have a particular monopoly. You want to lower your manufacturing costs” said Femi Ayi, EVP Operations. Contact TRUV today to discuss how we can help you with your income, employment, insurance, and asset verifications. Come join us!
Be Wary of Relying on Interest Rate Predictions
I am asked all the time, “Hey Rob, where do you think rates will be in six months?” My answer, after I say that I can’t even predict where I’m going to have lunch tomorrow, is always the same, “Higher, or lower, or possibly the same.” Or sure, one can have a prediction until a ship becomes stuck in the Suez Canal, a ship is attacked in the Red Sea, or a pandemic occurs. A recent STRATMOR blog is titled, “Interest Rates are Like the Weather? Or Like Signs of the Zodiac?”
The interest rate markets have a way of humbling almost all the ‘experts’ and the very first thing you learn in Secondary Marketing is that you shouldn’t take a view on where rates are headed because half the time, you’re wrong anyway. In Q4 of 2022 the arm-chair prognosticators were predicting that we’d see rates come down by the end of 2023. After reaching a peak in October, Treasury rates did come down to where they were at the beginning of 2023. But mortgage rates were well into the 7 percent range.
The Federal Reserve, in its attempts to control inflation and cool a very strong economy, raised fed funds several times in 2023. Throughout the year, however, we heard, inside the world of mortgage banking, opinions expressed that rates will not only come down, but when to expect this to happen. Based upon what data, one should ask, are their views speculative, biased, or just hopeful?
I would challenge these prognosticators as to the reasons why mortgage rates are positioned to fall. What leads them to predict that? I’m sure some opinions are based on fundamentals: Fed raises rates to control inflation, money is taken out of the economy, the economy cools, Fed cuts rates, and mortgages come down to some predicted level. A lot of the predictions I see are not rooted in actuality, but rather rooted in exuberance for mortgage banking.
In the summer of 2023, little of the macro data even hinted at a reduction of short-term interest rates. Inflation, which has been grinding lower, was a tad north of 4 percent with the Federal Reserve’s target set at 2 percent. Economists have modeled that unemployment would need to reach as high as 7 percent in order for inflation to come down to 2 percent… Not a pretty picture. Remember, when an economy ‘slows’ jobs are not created, historically they’re lost.
The Fed was relatively “hawkish” in its monetary policy for the remainder of 2023 until the end. Anyone predicting where interest rates will be in the future would need to start by predicting where the Federal Funds rate NEEDS to be in order to see inflation that’s appealing to the Fed, and then ultimately, HOW LONG rates needs to remain there; when is it warranted to reduce borrowing rates under recessionary fears? These are two almost impossible questions to answer since the number of variables that you need to get right, coupled with unpredictable world events, play such a strong role in forecasting interest rates.
A year from now, rates will either be higher, lower or the same. So, focus on your products and services!
Capital Markets
Ever wondered how to hedge a mortgage pipeline? Hedging one’s mortgage pipeline typically produces the greatest return over long-term macroeconomic cycles, which is why it is considered an essential step in the growth of a mortgage lender. In MCT’s whitepaper, Mortgage Pipeline Hedging 101, their experts explain what hedging is and why it is a valuable strategy for maximizing profitability in the secondary market. The whitepaper also reviews information on moving to mandatory loan sales, the strategy of hedging, the benefits of hedging, and how to determine if you are ready. Download the whitepaper or join MCT’s newsletter for upcoming releases.
Turning to interest rates, what’s that you say? Markets have gotten ahead of the Fed again? Gasp! Yes, markets aren’t looking all that cheerful in the new year. I don’t put much opinion in here, but I’d say it’s because of investors’ own doing. The added potential for interest rates to stay high for some time is forcing investors to continue to unwind optimistic trades placed in late 2023. The Federal Reserve’s policy makers poured water on predictions of early 2024 interest rate cuts, revealed the minutes from the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, with several voting members seeing the potential for the fed funds rate range to stay at a peak level for longer than the market expects.
Policymakers did acknowledge that we are probably at the peak of rates and that projections show cuts by year-end. Richmond Fed President Barkin cautioned that the potential for more rate hikes remains alive, called a soft landing “increasingly conceivable but in no way inevitable,” and added that any decision on a March cut is a “long way away.” Staff projections point to rate cuts by the end of 2024, but officials do not seem to be supportive of a series of cuts at this time.
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting hinted at hard landing concerns amongst board members while recognizing that they could “face a tradeoff between its dual-mandate goals in the period ahead.” Fortunately, there were more indications of optimism about inflation, which is supported by the latest jobs data showing cooling.
U.S. job openings fell in November to 8.79 million in November, the lowest level since early 2021 as fewer workers voluntarily quit and the number of hires fell. People who voluntarily left their jobs as a share of total employment fell to the lowest point since September 2020, signifying that Americans are feeling less confident in their ability to find new jobs or better paying jobs in the current market.
Separately, we also learned yesterday that the December ISM Manufacturing PMI indicated an ongoing contraction in the manufacturing sector, but at a slower pace than the previous month. December marked the 14th straight month the PMI reading has been in contractionary territory. The report was not devoid of good market news, as the Prices Index reflected a further easing of inflation pressures.
Today’s calendar sees some early labor market indicators ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls report. Markets have already received December job cuts from Challenger, Gray & Christmas (34,817 cuts in December, down 24 percent from the 45,510 cuts announced in November) as well as ADP employment for November (164k, higher than expected), and initial (202k, down from 218k) and continued (1.855 million) jobless claims. Later today brings the final December S&P Global services PMI, Treasury announcing the details of next week’s mini-Refunding (consisting of $52 billion 3-year notes, $37 billion reopened 10-year notes, and $21 billion 30-year bonds), and Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices worse .125-.250, the 10-year yielding 3.98 after closing yesterday at 3.91 percent, and the 2-year at 4.36 after a spate of employment data.
Employment
It’s a new year and Merchants Bank, is off and running, continuing to leverage its diversified business model to grow market share and assist Merchant’s lending partners. Merchants Bank’s Correspondent channel, offering Non-Delegated and Delegated options, recently hired Liberty Tribe as Sales Executive to help grow TX and the Mid South Region. Liberty along with Dan Hastings, CMB, AMP cover the Mid-South (TX, LA, AR, MO, OK, KS). In addition, Merchants is expanding its Financial Institutions channel by adding a Mini-Correspondent offering to their TPO Wholesale platform. If you are interested in learning more, contact Rob Wilson. On the Retail front, Merchants Bank continues to grow there as well and if you are looking for stability, support and products, they want to hear from you. Contact Ron Berry for more information. Their LO centric platform along with the strength and balance sheet of the bank allows them to expand market share in their regional markets.
Planet Home Lending’s new Vice President, Construction Sales Melony Harpe is paving the way for Planet MLOs to increase their construction loan volume in 2024. Interested in building your construction business? Join Planet and you’ll have support for calls with builders, resolving construction issues, and educating stakeholders. “I want MLOs and retail branches to feel confident and supported in their construction lending efforts,” Harpe said. “My role is to give MLOs the tools and resources needed to navigate the complexities of construction lending and expand their connections with builders.” To lay the foundation for a better 2024, contact VP of Talent Peter Briggs or 949-202-8213; all inquiries will be held in strict confidence.
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Mortgage rates over the last seven days followed a split path, but an important rate are now higher. Average 15-year fixed mortgage rates didn’t move, while average 30-year fixed mortgage rates grew.
For variable rates, the 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage slid lower.
30-year fixed mortgage: 7.05%
15-year fixed mortgage: 6.41%
5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage: 6.39%
Since early November, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage started making sustained drops, largely due to the Federal Reserve’s less restrictive monetary policy, cooling inflation and other economic data. The most common home loans are now in the 6% to 7% range.
Yet even with the recent decline in rates, the mortgage market always slows down toward the end of the year. And rates aren’t compelling enough to upset holiday plans to do home shopping, according to Keith Gumbinger of HSH.com. “After the holidays, if rates are still in this range, we’ll likely see a little seasonal pent-up demand by borrowers expressed in January,” Gumbinger said.
About these rates: Like CNET, Bankrate is owned by Red Ventures. This tool features partner rates from lenders that you can use when comparing multiple mortgage rates.
Today’s average mortgage interest rates
If you’re in the market for a home, check out how today’s mortgage rates compare to last week’s. We use data collected by Bankrate to track daily mortgage rate trends. This table summarizes the average rates offered by lenders across the country:
Current average mortgage interest rates
Loan type
Interest rate
A week ago
Change
30-year fixed rate
7.05%
7.00%
+0.05
15-year fixed rate
6.41%
6.41%
N/C
30-year jumbo mortgage rate
7.12%
7.06%
+0.06
30-year mortgage refinance rate
7.21%
7.16%
+0.05
Rates as of January 3, 2024.
How to choose a mortgage
When picking a mortgage, consider the loan term, or payment schedule. The most common mortgage terms are 15 and 30 years, although 10-, 20- and 40-year mortgages also exist. You’ll also need to choose between a fixed-rate mortgage, where the interest rate is set for the duration of the loan, and an adjustable-rate mortgage. With an adjustable-rate mortgage, the interest rate is only fixed for a certain amount of time (commonly five, seven or 10 years), after which the rate adjusts annually based on the market’s current interest rate. Fixed-rate mortgages offer more stability and are a better option if you plan to live in a home in the long term, but adjustable-rate mortgages may offer lower interest rates upfront.
30-year fixed-rate mortgages
The average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is 7.05%, which is an increase of 5 basis points from one week ago. (A basis point is equivalent to 0.01%.) A 30-year fixed mortgage is the most common loan term. It will often have a higher interest rate than a 15-year mortgage, but you’ll have a lower monthly payment.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages
The average rate for a 15-year, fixed mortgage is 6.41%, which is the same rate compared to a week ago. Though you’ll have a bigger monthly payment than a 30-year fixed mortgage, a 15-year loan usually comes with a lower interest rate, allowing you to pay less interest in the long run and pay off your mortgage sooner.
5/1 adjustable-rate mortgages
A 5/1 ARM has an average rate of 6.39%, a slide of 2 basis points compared to last week. You’ll typically get a lower introductory interest rate with a 5/1 ARM in the first five years of the mortgage. But you could pay more after that period, depending on how the rate adjusts annually. If you plan to sell or refinance your house within five years, an ARM could be a good option.
Calculate your monthly mortgage payment
Getting a mortgage should always depend on your financial situation and long-term goals. The most important thing is to make a budget and try to stay within your means. CNET’s mortgage calculator below can help homebuyers prepare for monthly mortgage payments.
Where mortgage rates are headed
At the start of the pandemic, mortgage rates were near record lows, around 3%. That all changed as inflation began to surge and the Fed kicked off a series of aggressive interest rate hikes, which indirectly drove up mortgage rates. Now, nearly two years after the first rate increase in March 2022, mortgage rates are still more than double what they were just a few years ago.
The central bank has kept interest rates steady since late July, and mortgage rates are just now starting to see sustained decreases. With the Fed extending its rate-hike pause in December, experts are waiting for the first rate cut. It may be months before that happens, but as long as inflation continues to moderate, mortgage rates should stabilize and start inching even lower in the coming months.
What affects mortgage rates?
Federal Reserve monetary policy: The nation’s central bank doesn’t set interest rates, but when it adjusts the federal funds rate, mortgages tend to go in the same direction.
Inflation: Mortgage rates tend to increase during high inflation. Lenders usually set higher interest rates on loans to compensate for the loss of purchasing power.
The bond market: Mortgage lenders often use long-term bond yields, like the 10-Year Treasury, as a benchmark to set interest rates on home loans. When yields rise, mortgage rates typically increase.
Geopolitical events: World events, such as elections, pandemics or economic crises, can also affect home loan rates, particularly when global financial markets face uncertainty.
Other economic factors: The bond market, employment data, investor confidence and housing market trends, such as supply and demand, can also affect the direction of mortgage rates.
Mortgage rate forecasts from experts
While mortgage forecasters base their projections on different data, most predict rates will remain near or above 7% for the rest of 2023. Here’s a look at where some of the major housing authorities expect average mortgage rates to land at the end of the year.
How to find the best mortgage rates
Though mortgage rates and home prices are high, the housing market won’t be unaffordable forever. It’s always a good time to save for a down payment and improve your credit score to help you secure a competitive mortgage rate when the time is right.
Save for a bigger down payment: Though a 20% down payment isn’t required, a larger upfront payment means taking out a smaller mortgage, which will help you save in interest.
Boost your credit score: You can qualify for a conventional mortgage with a 620 credit score, but a higher score of at least 740 will get you better rates.
Pay off debt: Experts recommend a debt-to-income ratio of 36% or less to help you qualify for the best rates. Not carrying other debt will put you in a better position to handle your monthly payments.
Research loans and assistance: Government-sponsored loans have more flexible borrowing requirements than conventional loans. Some government-sponsored or private programs can also help with your down payment and closing costs.
Shop around for lenders: Researching and comparing multiple loan offers from different lenders can help you secure the lowest mortgage rate for your situation.