A mortgage is a loan to purchase a home. The loan is repaid with interest in monthly payments over a certain number of years, such as 15, 20 or 30. If the mortgage isn’t repaid, the borrower may lose the home in a multistage process known as foreclosure.
Banks, credit unions and other lenders offer mortgages. To apply, fill out an application and provide documentation about your finances. Lenders consider your income, debts and credit score to decide whether you qualify and the terms to offer.
Types of mortgages
There are a variety of mortgages and home loan programs. Here are some of your choices.
Fixed vs. adjustable rates
There are fixed-rate and adjustable-rate mortgages. The interest rate stays the same for the entire loan term of a fixed-rate mortgage. With an adjustable-rate mortgage, or ARM, the interest rate stays the same for a certain period, up to 10 years, and then adjusts at a specified interval, usually every six months.
15-, 20- and 30-year mortgages
The most popular mortgage term is 30 years, but 15- and 20-year mortgages are also available. Mortgage payments are spread out monthly through the term. At the end, the loan is paid off and the borrower owns the property free and clear.
Government-backed mortgages
These loans are backed by the federal government:
FHA mortgages are backed by the Federal Housing Administration. They allow down payments as low as 3.5% and have more lenient credit score requirements than other loan programs. Borrowers must pay for mortgage insurance.
USDA mortgages, backed by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and meant for rural home buyers, do not require a down payment, but borrowers must pay an upfront and annual guarantee fee, similar to mortgage insurance for FHA loans.
VA loans, backed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, are for veterans and active military members. VA mortgages require no down payment, but borrowers pay a one-time VA funding fee, which can be rolled into the loan.
Conventional loans
Conventional loans are mortgages that are not backed by the federal government. Some conventional loans have down payment requirements as low as 3% — but typically, borrowers must pay for private mortgage insurance if they put down less than 20%.
Conventional mortgages can be conforming or nonconforming. Conforming conventional mortgages fall within certain dollar amount limitations set every year by the Federal Housing Finance Agency. They also meet underwriting guidelines set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-sponsored entities that buy conforming loans.
Nonconforming loans don’t abide by those limits and guidelines. For example, jumbo loans are conventional mortgages that exceed the conforming loan limits. They also typically have stricter criteria for approval than other mortgages.
What’s the credit score needed for a home loan?
The credit score needed to buy a home depends on the type of loan and the lender. Most borrowers have scores in the high 600s to 700s. FHA loans generally have the most lenient credit score requirements.
How to compare mortgage rates
You can check current mortgage rates to see the average of what lenders are offering. Then get initial quotes online from some lenders based on your location, loan term, purchase price, down payment amount and other factors.
To get a firm quote, you’ll need to apply for preapproval. During the preapproval process, the lender will check your credit and verify your financial information, such as income, assets and debts.
How to shop for a mortgage lender
The time to shop for a mortgage lender is before you start house hunting. Getting preapproved for a mortgage will show real estate agents and sellers that you’re a serious buyer. It’s smart to get preapproved and then get Loan Estimates from more than one lender. The Loan Estimate provides details about the loan terms, monthly payment and estimated closing costs. With those pieces of information, you can compare offers and choose the best deal.
Home equity loans and lines of credit
Homeowners who want to access their home equity without refinancing or selling can take out second mortgages.
A home equity loan offers access to cash based on the value of the home for any expenses, although it is recommended homeowners use the funds for upgrades and repairs that add value to the home. This loan is paid out in a lump sum that is then repaid over a specific amount of time.
A home equity line of credit, or HELOC, also offers cash but works more like a credit card, allowing a homeowner to withdraw funds multiple times, up to the limit of their credit line, during a specific period and then pay it back.
Because both of these options use the home as collateral, a homeowner must understand that failure to make payments could result in loss of the home. As with purchase loans, it’s wise to compare offers from more than one home equity lender.
While the dream of homeownership might seem elusive on a tight budget, the availability of low income home loans offers a beacon of hope.
These specialized loans come in handy, particularly when the obstacles of saving for a down payment loom large—a common hurdle if you’re already strapped with rent payments.
So if you’re wondering how to bridge the financial gap between renting and owning, read on to explore the various low income home loan programs that could unlock the door to your future home.
Verify your home buying eligibility. Start here
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Can I buy a house with low income?
Yes, you can buy a house with a low income by qualifying for housing assistance programs and special mortgage loans. That’s because there is no minimum income requirement to buy a house.
However, your ability to do so will depend on a variety of factors specific to your financial situation. A mortgage lender will examine your credit score, debt-to-income ratio, and down payment to determine if you qualify.
Check your mortgage eligibility. Start here
What are low income home loans?
The path to homeownership can be fraught with challenges, particularly for those with limited financial resources. Enter low income home loans—a specialized type of mortgage designed to level the playing field for buyers facing financial barriers.
Low-income mortgage programs focus on addressing the common challenges that low-income earners encounter, such as managing debt, maintaining less-than-stellar credit scores, and struggling to save for a significant down payment.
Verify your home buying eligibility. Start here
Minimal down payment requirements: One of the most daunting aspects of buying a home is accumulating a large down payment. Low income home loans often require smaller down payments, making it easier for buyers to make the initial leap.
Lenient credit criteria: Having a perfect credit score is not always feasible, especially when living on a limited income. These loans often have more flexible credit requirements, allowing for a broader range of credit histories.
Reduced costs at closing: High closing costs can be another hurdle. Low income home loan programs may offer reduced or even waived closing costs in certain circumstances.
Competitive mortgage interest rates: High interest rates can quickly make a mortgage unaffordable. Low income home loans often feature competitive interest rates, reducing long-term costs.
Lower mortgage insurance premiums: Some programs offer reduced premiums for mortgage insurance, further lowering monthly payments.
Interestingly enough, some of these programs often have income caps, essentially barring applicants who have incomes that are considered too high. This ensures that the programs benefit those who need them most.
Requirements for low income home loans
Your ability to qualify for a loan is not solely based on your income. Lenders will assess your debt-to-income (DTI) ratio, a key metric that represents your monthly debts as a percentage of your monthly income. Generally, a DTI under 35% is viewed as favorable, making you a more appealing candidate for a mortgage.
If saving a down payment is your chief concern, don’t worry; there are plenty of options that require minimal, or sometimes zero, down payments. Despite common misconceptions, a 20% down payment is not a universal requirement.
Additional Assistance
Beyond the loan itself, there are various homebuyer assistance programs that can help with the down payment and closing costs. Some of these are structured as grants that don’t require repayment, making it easier to achieve the dream of owning a home.
Navigating the complexities of mortgages and home buying can be intimidating, but low income home loans and assistance programs offer a lifeline to those who dream of owning their own home. These financial products and services are tailored to alleviate the most common obstacles, offering a viable path to homeownership for those who may have thought it was out of reach.
Low income home loans
Low income home buyers have plenty of loan options and special assistance programs to help with a home purchase. Here’s what you can expect.
Check your mortgage eligibility. Start here
Loan Type
Credit Score
Down Payment
Unique Requirements
HomeReady
Generally 620
As low as 3%
Income limits based on area, homebuyer education course required
Home Possible
Generally 660
As low as 3%
Must be primary residence, income limits may apply, can include 1-4 unit properties
Must be a qualifying service member, veteran, or eligible spouse; primary residence only
USDA Loans
Usually 640
No down payment required
Must be in a qualifying rural area, income limits apply, primary residence only
HomeReady and Home Possible mortgages
Fannie Mae’s HomeReady program and Freddie Mac’s Home Possible loan are geared toward lower-income home buyers. You need only 3% down to qualify, and there is no minimum “required contribution” from the borrower. That means the money can come from a gift, grant, or loan from an acceptable source.
Even better, the home seller can pay closing costs worth up to 3% of the purchase price. Instead of negotiating a lower sales price, try asking the seller to cover your closing costs.
Private mortgage insurance (PMI) may also be discounted for these low income home loans. You’re likely to get a lower PMI rate than borrowers with standard conventional mortgages, which could save you a lot of money from month to month.
“This is the biggest benefit,” says Jon Meyer, The Mortgage Reports loan expert and licensed mortgage loan originator. “The PMI is offered at a lower rate than with a standard conventional loan.”
Finally, Home Possible and HomeReady might make special allowances for applicants with low incomes. For instance, HomeReady lets you add income from a renter on your mortgage application, as long as they’ve lived with you for at least a year prior. This can help boost your qualifying income and make it easier to get financing.
You might qualify for HomeReady or Home Possible if your household income is below local income limits and you have a credit score between 620 and 660.
FHA loans
FHA loans offer flexible approval requirements for repeat and first-time home buyers alike. This program, which the Federal Housing Administration backs, relaxes borrowers’ standards to get a mortgage. This can open up the home-buying process to more renters.
You might be able to get an FHA home loan with a debt-to-income ratio (DTI) up to 45% or a credit score as low as 580 while paying only 3.5% down
Select FHA lenders even allow credit scores as low as 500, provided the buyer can make a 10% down payment
Thanks to these perks and others, the FHA loan is one of the most popular low-down-payment mortgages on the market.
Check your FHA loan eligibility. Start here
VA loans
Veterans Affairs-backed VA loans provide military homebuyers with a number of advantages.
No down payment requirement. You can finance 100% of the purchase price. You can also refinance 100% of your home’s value using a VA loan
No mortgage insurance. But you will pay a one-time VA Funding Fee. You can wrap it into the loan amount.
No minimum credit score. Although lenders are allowed to add their own minimums. Those that do often require a FICO score of at least 580 to 620.
Sellers can pay up to 4% of the purchase price in closing costs. So if you find a motivated seller, you could potentially get into a home with nothing out of pocket
If you’re a veteran, active-duty service member, or surviving spouse, the VA mortgage program should be your first stop.
Check your VA loan eligibility. Start here
USDA loans
If you’re not buying in a large city, you may qualify for a USDA home loan. Officially called the Single-Family Housing Guaranteed Loan Program, the USDA loan was created to help moderate- and low-income borrowers buy homes in rural areas.
With a USDA loan, you can buy a home with no money down. The only catch is that you must buy in a USDA-approved rural area (though these are more widespread than you might think). You can find out if the property you’re buying is located in a USDA-eligible rural area and whether you meet local income limits using the USDA’s eligibility maps.
Your monthly payments might be cheaper, too. That’s because interest and mortgage insurance rates are typically lower for USDA loans than for FHA or conforming loans.
There are two types of USDA loans.
The Guaranteed Program is for buyers with incomes up to 115% of their Area Median Income (AMI)
The Direct Program is for those with incomes between 50% and 80% of the AMI
Standard USDA-guaranteed loans are available from many mainstream lenders. But the Direct program requires borrowers to work directly with the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
You typically need a credit score of 640 or higher to qualify.
Check your USDA loan eligibility. Start here
Low income home loan programs
Aside from mortgages that are designed to help people with low incomes buy a home, there are also a number of other programs that offer help to make homeownership more accessible.
Verify your home buying eligibility. Start here
Program
Description
Who Is Eligible
Hud Homes
Discounted homes sold by the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Low- to moderate-income families, with preference for those who will make it their primary residence. May include single-family homes.
Housing Choice Voucher Program
Vouchers to subsidize the cost of housing in the private market.
Low-income families; must meet income and other criteria set by state and local housing programs.
Good Neighbor Next Door
Significant discounts on homes for teachers, firefighters, police officers, and EMTs.
Must commit to living in the property as a primary residence for at least 36 months. Includes single-family homes.
HFA Loans
Loans offered by state Housing Finance Agencies with reduced interest rates and down payment assistance.
First-time or repeat buyers with low to moderate incomes must meet income requirements. Often, it must be a primary residence.
Down Payment Assistance
Grants or loans to cover the down payment and sometimes closing costs.
Typically for low- to moderate-income families, though criteria can vary by program. Often for single-family homes.
State or Local Assistance
Various grants, loans, or tax credits are offered at the state or local level.
Eligibility varies but usually targets low- to moderate-income families. May include single-family homes.
Mortgage Credit Certificates
Tax credit to reduce federal income tax liability.
First-time homebuyers who meet income requirements; must be primary residence.
Manufactured and Mobile Homes
Loans or grants specifically for manufactured or mobile homes.
Low- to moderate-income families; must meet criteria set by specific housing programs. Usually must be primary residence.
Hud Homes
When the FHA forecloses on homes, those properties are often put up for sale as HUD Homes. And, you can generally purchase one at a steep discount. To qualify for a HUD Home, it will need to be your primary residence for at least 12 months. Additionally, you must not have purchased another HUD in the past 24 months.
Keep in mind that HUD Homes are sold as-is. Many are fixer-uppers. Moreover, HUD Homes are purchased through a bidding process. You’ll need a real estate agent or mortgage broker licensed with HUD to bid on an FHA property.
You can find HUD Homes on the official HUD website, hudhomestore.com. There, you’ll see all HUD real estate owned (REO) single-family properties in your area.
Good Neighbor Next Door
The Good Neighbor Next Door program offers unique benefits for nurses, first responders, and teachers. If you’re eligible, you can buy HUD foreclosure homes at a 50% discount. Use an FHA mortgage, and you only need $100 for a down payment.
You can find the homes on the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development website. You’ll also need a HUD-licensed real estate agent to put your offer in for you.
If your offer is accepted and you qualify for financing, you get the home. The 50% discount makes homeownership a lot more affordable. However, be aware that this discount is actually a second mortgage. But it has no interest and requires no payments. Live in the home for three years, and the second mortgage is forgiven entirely.
HFA home loans
Not to be confused with FHA loans, HFA loans are offered in partnership with state and local Housing Finance Authorities.
Many HFA loans are conventional mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They may require as little as 3% down, and many HFA programs can be used with down payment assistance to reduce the upfront cost of home buying.
Borrowers who qualify for an HFA loan might also be in line for discounted mortgage rates and mortgage insurance premiums. To qualify, you’ll typically need a credit score of at least 620. But eligibility requirements vary by program.
Find and contact your state’s public housing finance agency or authority to learn more and see if you qualify. Also, be aware that this type of loan program will require additional approval steps that may make loan closing take longer.
Down payment assistance programs (DPAs)
Down payment assistance is exactly what it sounds like. It provides help with down payments on home purchases and often closing costs. Government agencies, nonprofits, and other sources commonly offer down payment and closing cost assistance. They are usually in the form of a grant or loan (though the loans may be forgiven if you stay in the house for five to ten years).
Most DPA programs target low-income home buyers and have guidelines that make qualifying easier. Some, however, provide assistance to people who buy in “underserved” or “redevelopment” areas, regardless of income. Many DPA programs offer assistance worth tens of thousands of dollars.
Talk to a lender about your options. Start here
Mortgage Credit Certificates (MCCs)
Mortgage credit certificates (MCCs) can stretch your home-buying power. If you meet income requirements, you could get a tax credit equal to some percentage of your mortgage interest. Lenders are allowed to add this credit to your qualifying income when underwriting your mortgage. This allows you to qualify for a higher mortgage amount than you otherwise could.
There are numerous states, counties, and cities that issue mortgage credit certificates, and their regulations and amounts vary greatly. Check with your local housing finance authority to find out whether MCCs are available where you live.
Housing Choice Voucher Program
The Housing Choice Voucher homeownership program (HCV) provides both rental and home buying assistance to eligible low-income households. Also known as Section 8, this program allows low-income home buyers to use housing vouchers to purchase their own homes.
Because local public housing agencies run these voucher programs, eligibility varies depending on location. Still, you’ll likely need to meet the following requirements:
Program-specific income and employment conditions
Being a first-time home buyer
Completing a pre-assistance homeownership and counseling program
Keep in mind that not all states offer voucher programs, and some programs have waiting lists. Also, these programs could limit how much you can sell the home for later on. To find out if your area offers a participating program, use the HUD locator web tool.
Manufactured and mobile homes
A manufactured home usually costs less than a traditional, site-built home. When placed on approved foundations and taxed as real estate, manufactured homes can be financed with mainstream mortgage programs.
Many programs require slightly higher down payments or more restrictive terms for manufactured homes. HomeReady, for example, increases the minimum down payment from 3% to 5% if you finance a manufactured home. Other programs require the home to be brand new.
Additionally, there are often requirements regarding the year the home was built and the property’s foundation. These guidelines will vary between lenders. Mobile homes that are not classified as real estate can be purchased with personal loans like the FHA’s Title 2 program. These are not mortgages because the homes are not considered real estate.
Check your mortgage options. Start here
Tips for buying a house with low income
Whether you’re buying a new home or your first home, these tips can help you achieve your homeownership goals.
Verify your home buying eligibility. Start here
Improve your credit history
Improving your FICO score is the best way to increase your chances of loan approval and qualify for lower mortgage rates.
The credit score needed to purchase a home varies depending on the type of loan you apply for. Conventional loans typically require a score of at least 620, while FHA loans often require at least 580.
Start by pulling free credit reports from annualcreditreport.com to determine your current score. Next, consider a few of the common methods for increasing credit scores. The amount of work that you’ll need to do will depend on your personal financial situation.
As an example, if your credit score is low because you’re using too much of your available credit, you may benefit from a debt consolidation loan to tame your high-interest account balances and improve your credit utilization.
On the other hand, if your credit history reveals missed payments, you’ll need to show at least 12 months of regular, on-time payments to improve your score.
Save for a down payment
The average first-time home buyer puts just 13% down on a new home. Yet, many loan programs require as little as 3% down or no down payment at all.
Remember that you still have to pay closing costs, which are typically around 2% to 5% of your mortgage loan amount. If you put less than 20% down, you’ll almost certainly have to pay for mortgage insurance.
In addition, you may need cash reserves in your savings account. This assures lenders that you can make your monthly mortgage payments should you suffer a financial setback. However, don’t let the down payment scare you away from homeownership. Many buyers qualify without even knowing it.
Pay down debts
Paying down debts will lower your debt-to-income ratio and improve your odds of mortgage approval. This is especially true for those with high-interest credit card debt.
You’ll likely qualify for lower rates when you have:
A low debt-to-income ratio (DTI)
High credit score
3% to 5% down payment
Stable income for the past two consecutive years
Use a first-time home buyer program
First-time buyer programs offer flexible guidelines for qualified buyers. Plus, these special programs exist in every state to help low-income households achieve homeownership.
Unlike traditional conventional loans, the government backs many first-time buyer mortgages. This allows mortgage lenders to offer loans with better rates and lower credit score requirements than they normally would be able to.
Verify your low income home loan eligibility. Start here
Model your budget
Owning a home requires more than qualifying for a loan and making monthly mortgage payments. Homeowners are responsible for a variety of ongoing costs, including:
Homeowners insurance
Property taxes
Mortgage insurance (in many cases)
Utility bills
Ongoing home maintenance
Home improvements
Appliance repair and replacement
Home buyers who have experience paying these ongoing costs of homeownership will be better prepared for the big day when they get the keys to their dream home.
Plus, sticking to this model budget in the months and years before purchasing a home and then saving the money you would spend on housing costs, such as insurance premiums and utilities, is a great way to build cash reserves and save for a down payment.
Use a co-signer
If you’re on the edge of qualifying for your own loan, using a co-signer may be an option.
Essentially, when you buy a house with a co-signer, you and your co-signer are both responsible for making the monthly payments. You’ll both also build and share in the home’s equity. Purchasing a home with a co-signer is quite common among unmarried couples, friends, and family members.
FAQ: Low income home loans
Verify your home buying eligibility. Start here
How do you buy a house with low income?
To buy a house with a low income, you have to know which mortgage program will accept your application. A few popular options include: FHA loans (allowing low income and as little as 3.5 percent down with a 580 credit score); USDA loans (for low-income buyers in rural and suburban areas); VA loans (a zero-down option for veterans and service members); and HomeReady or Home Possible (conforming loans for low-income buyers with just 3 percent down).
I make $25K a year; can I buy a house?
Mortgage experts recommend spending no more than 28 percent of your gross monthly income on a housing payment. So if you make $25K per year, you can likely afford around $580 per month for a house payment. Assuming a fixed interest rate of 6 percent and a 3 percent down payment, that might buy you a house worth about $100,000. But that’s only a rough estimate. Talk with a mortgage lender to get the exact numbers for your situation.
How do I qualify for a low-income mortgage?
Whether or not you qualify for a low income home loan depends on the program. For example, you might qualify for an FHA mortgage with just 3.5 percent down and a 580 credit score. Or, if your house is in a qualified area and you’re below local income caps, you might be able to get a zero-down USDA mortgage. Veterans can qualify for a low-income mortgage using a VA loan. Or, you can apply for the mortgage with a co-borrower and qualify based on combined incomes.
What programs are available for first-time home buyers?
Low income home loans can help first-time home buyers overcome hurdles like low credit or income, smaller down payments, or high levels of debt. A few good programs for first-time home buyers include Freddie Mac’s Home Possible mortgage, Fannie Mae’s HomeReady mortgage, the Conventional 97 mortgage, and government-backed loans like FHA, USDA, and VA. First-time home buyers can also apply for down payment assistance grants through their state or local housing department.
Can the government help me buy a house?
There are a number of ways the government can help you buy a house. Perhaps the most direct way to get help is by applying for down payment assistance. This is a grant or low-interest loan to help you make a down payment. You can also buy a house using a government-backed mortgage, like the FHA or USDA. With these programs, the government essentially insures the loan, so you can buy with a lower income, credit score, or down payment than you could otherwise.
How do I buy a house without proof of income?
You can no longer buy a house without proof of income. You have to prove you can pay the loan back somehow. But there are modern alternatives to stated-income loans. For instance, you can show “proof of income” through bank statements, assets, or retirement accounts instead of W2 tax forms (the traditional method). Many people who want to buy a house without proof of income these days find a bank statement loan to be a good option.
How do you rent to own?
A lease option or rent-to-own home isn’t exactly what it sounds like. You don’t simply rent until the house is paid off. Instead, you usually pay a higher rent for a set period of time. That excess rent then goes toward a down payment when you buy the house at a later date. Rent-to-own might help you buy a house if you don’t have a lot of cash on hand right now or if you need to improve your credit score before applying for a mortgage. However, rent-to-own requires seller cooperation and comes with unique risks.
Can I rent-to-own with no down payment?
Rent-to-own does not mean you can buy a house with no down payment. When you rent-to-own, you’re paying extra rent each month that will go toward your down payment later on. And usually, rent-to-own contracts include an option fee that’s a lot like a down payment. The option fee is smaller. Think 1 percent of the purchase price instead of 3 to 20 percent. And that fee eventually goes toward your purchase. But it’s still a few thousand dollars you must pay upfront to secure the right to buy the home later on.
Can I get a grant to buy a house?
Qualified buyers can get a grant to buy a house. These are called down payment assistance grants. They won’t pay for the whole house, but they can help cover your down payment to make a mortgage more affordable. You’re most likely to qualify for a grant to buy a house if you have a low to moderate income and live in a target area.
What type of low income home loan is the easiest to qualify for?
FHA loans are generally the easiest low income home loan to qualify for. The federal government insures these loans, which means lenders can relax their qualifying rules. It’s possible for a home buyer with a credit score of 500 to get approved for an FHA loan, but most FHA lenders look for scores of 580 or better. And a FICO score of 580 lets you make the FHA’s minimum down payment of 3.5 percent.
How can I get a home loan with low monthly payments?
To get the lowest possible monthly payment, choose a 30-year loan term, find a cheaper home, put more money down, and make sure you have excellent credit before applying for your mortgage. If you can afford a 20 percent down payment, you can avoid PMI premiums, which lower your monthly payments even more. Veterans can get VA loans that require no PMI, regardless of their down payment size.
What’s the lowest amount you can put on a house?
Some home buyers can put no money down with a VA or USDA loan. Conventional loans will require at least 3 percent down, and FHA loans will require at least 3.5 percent down. Down payment assistance grants and loans could help you cover some or all of this down payment.
How much house can I afford if I make $30K a year?
If you make $30,000 a year, you could probably spend about $110,000 on a house, assuming you get a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6 percent. This is a rough estimate. Your unique financial situation may be different. Getting a pre-approval from a lender is the only way to find your actual price range.
What are today’s mortgage rates for low income home loans?
Many low-income mortgage programs have lower interest rates than “standard” mortgage loans. So you might get a great deal.
However, interest rates vary depending on the borrower, the loan program, and the lender.
To find out where you stand, you’ll need to compare loan offers from several lenders and then choose your best deal.
Time to make a move? Let us find the right mortgage for you
Last week, housing inventory grew and the number of price cuts fell, which is expected at this time of the year. I hope the next thing we see is housing inventory grow at the level it typically does in January or February instead of being delayed until March or April. Last year at this time, inventory rose week to week and I was hopeful for a typical spring inventory year, but the seasonal bottom didn’t actually happen until April 14. So let’s hope for more home sellers in 2024.
Weekly housing inventory data
Here is a look at the first week of the year:
Weekly inventory change (Jan. 5-12): Inventory rose from 499,143 to 505,223
Same week last year (Jan. 6-13): Inventory rose from 471,349 to 473,406
The inventory bottom for 2022 was 240,194
The inventory peak for 2023 is 569,898
For context, active listings for this week in 2015 were 931,002
I don’t want to jinx this because active inventory rose last year at this time. In any case, we will keep an eye on housing inventory going out in the future. As you can see, we are still a bit away from my ultimate goal of having total active listings back to 2019 levels.
Price cut percentage
Every year, one third of all homes take a price cut before they sell — there is nothing abnormal about that. However, this data line accelerates when mortgage rates rise and demand gets hit harder. A perfect example was 2022: when housing inventory rose, the percentage of price cuts rose and home sales crashed. This is not what we’re seeing now. Sales aren’t growing much, but they’re not crashing as they did in 2022 so we track this data line religiously every week to get clues.
This is the price-cut percentage for the same week over the last few years:
2024 32.2%
2023 35.8%
2022 21.7%
New listing data
New listings data can grow in 2024, something I talked about on CNBC last year as this data line didn’t trend much lower when mortgage rates were heading toward 8%. We took an affordability hit after July of 2022 and since most sellers are also buyers, it was too expensive to move, or you couldn’t qualify to sell to buy another house, directly impacting housing inventory.
Every year, wages grow and home-price growth has significantly slowed since the madness after COVID-19. We can grow new listings from these depressed levels and get more demand. While this isn’t the Silver Tsunami some have promised, any growth back to 2021-2022 levels is a plus.
2024 39,640
2023 36,804
2022 37,091
Mortgage rates and the 10-year yield
The 10-year yield is the key for housing in 2024. In my 2024 forecast, I have the 10-year yield range between 3.21%-4.25%, with a critical line in the sand at 3.37%. If the economic data stays firm, we shouldn’t break below 3.21%, but if the labor data gets weaker, that line in the sand — which I call the Gandalf line, as in “you shall not pass” — will be tested. This 10-year yield range means mortgage rates between 5.75%-7.25%. This assumes spreads are still bad.
Last week, even with the CPI and PPI inflation data, the 10-year yield stayed in a small range between 3.92%-4.07%. We have already moved lower in a big fashion from 5.04% to 3.80%; that 3.80% level is critical for now. Mortgage ranges have been calm as the spreads have been getting better. Mortgage rates started the week at 6.74%, reached as high as 6.80% and ended the week at 6.69%. We want to watch labor data and track if the spreads improve this year because mortgage rates should be 0.75% to 1.125% lower today but aren’t due to the spreads.
Next week, retail sales could be a driver of the 10-year yield, and therefore mortgage rates. Also, any Federal Reserve presidents talking about slowing down the quantitative tightening process would be a plus. This is something that they have been talking about recently.
Purchase application data
One of the things I have stressed over the years is that nobody should put any weight on the purchase application data during the last few weeks of the year because hardly anyone fills out a mortgage application during Christmas and New Years. And since the data takes a seasonal low dive, it tends to then bounce during the first week of the year, so we should ignore the first week of the year as well.
This is why I stress tracking purchase applications the second week of January to the first week of May. Volumes always tend to fall after May. With that said, purchase applications did have 6% week-to-week growth last week, but what was more encouraging to see is that when mortgage rates fell recently from 8% to almost 6.50%, we had six weeks of positive growth.
We can now officially start the seasonal housing period and the year-to-date counts on how many positive weeks we have versus negative weeks and where rates move. Remember that last year, even with mortgage rates ranging between 6%-8%, we had 23 positive and 24 negative prints and two flat prints for the year. Imagine a year with lower rates, and one where we don’t have a 2% increase in the calendar year. As you can see in the chart below, the bar is low for growth.
The week ahead: Housing week and CNBC
We have a ton of housing data coming up this week, including builders’ confidence, housing starts and the existing home sales report. Retail sales also come out this week, and that report might move the bond market early in the morning. And unless the schedule changes, I will be on CNBC on Thursday on the Exchange segment, talking about the housing starts data.
The key for 2024: track all economic data religiously to see its impact on the 10-year yield!
Florida’s luxury real estate market is heating up like a jet ski on a hot summer day. And three smart South Florida neighbors decided to cash in on that.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Jorge Luis Garcia, former owner of Orlando Family Physicians, and his adjoining neighbors, Juan Miguel Almeida and Adria Adrian Almeida are listing their Palm Island properties for a combined $150,000,000.
The three waterfront properties — adjacent to each other — are located on the 82-acre gated Palm Island, a man-made island in Biscayne Bay, Florida famous for its Latin Quarter nightclub, which was owned by Barbara Walters’ father, Lou, and is said to have been frequented by the likes of Frank Sinatra and Jane Russell.
Garcia reportedly owns two of the $50 million properties, with his neighbors owning the other, and they’re selling them as a package deal. But even if they were to list independently, the asking prices stand out for the area, as Palm Island’s record sale price for a single-family residence is $32 million.
But combining the properties definitely adds to the appeal of the offering.
Beyond bringing their ocean frontage up to 300 feet, the offering allows the right buyer to acquire several existing, already-built properties together — an option that’s becoming increasingly rare in greater Miami.
So let’s take a closer look at each of the three South Florida properties, currently offered as a package deal for a whopping $150 million.
#1 190 Palm Ave, Miami Beach
The largest of the three residences, 190 Palm Avenue offers 12,386 square feet of luxuriously appointed living space.
With a total of 7 bedrooms, 8 bathrooms, and 3 half bathrooms, the stately house pairs Mediterranean-style architecture with elegant, modern interiors.
#2 198 Palm Avenue, Miami Beach
While just a tad smaller than the neighboring house, at 11,650 square feet, 198 Palm Avenue is equally luxurious.
This one comes with 8 bedrooms, 9 full baths and 2 half baths, and sits on a 30,000-square-foot lot.
#3 210 Palm Avenue, Miami Beach
The third and last house has similar characteristics, clocking in at 11,349 square feet, with 6 bedrooms, 8.5 bathrooms, and a 30,000 sq. ft. lot.
Just like its neighbors, it has 100 feet of ocean frontage and has been meticulously appointed with the finest luxury finishes.
And while the trio of properties currently stands as one of the priciest residential listings in all of Florida, surpassed only by $187 million newly built mansion in Palm Beach, they wouldn’t set a new state record even if they were to sell at full ask.
The record for the most expensive home sale in Florida is held by billionaire Larry Ellison’s $173 million purchase of the Gemini mansion, the former Ziff family estate in Manalapan.
Nevertheless, the future sale will likely set a record for Palm Island, and bring this Miami Beach enclave into the spotlight, alongside more hyped areas like Star Island or Indian Creek, both holding headlines recently due to notable sales. Spearheading the efforts to make that a reality is Cesar Powell with Coldwell Banker Realty Miami Beach, who holds the listing.
And while the sellers aren’t at all interested in splitting it into three separate listings, we’d be remiss if we didn’t ask: Which one of the three properties do you like the most?
The article Three neighboring properties in Miami Beach eye $150 million sale first appeared on Fancy Pants Homes.
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Mortgage rates ticked up this week as the 10-year Treasury yield made its way back above 4%.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.66% as of Jan. 11, a slight increase from last week’s 6.62%, according to Freddie Mac‘s Primary Mortgage Market Survey released on Thursday. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.87% this week, down from 5.89% the prior week. HousingWire’s Mortgage Rates Center showed Optimal Blue’s average 30-year fixed rate on conventional loans at 6.66% on Thursday, down from 6.68% recorded at the same time last week.
“Mortgage rates have not moved materially over the last three weeks and remain in the mid-six percent range, which has marginally increased homebuyer demand,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a statement. “Even this slight uptick in demand, combined with inventory that remains tight, continues to cause prices to rise faster than incomes, meaning affordability remains a major headwind for buyers. Potential homebuyers should look closely at existing state and local resources, such as down payment assistance programs, which can considerably help defray closing costs.”
Mortgage rates dipped below 7% before the start of the new year, steadily declining each week of December. Most housing professionals expect mortgage rates to continue trending downwards in 2024. Economists hope that declining rates will spur more sellers to list their homes. However, mortgage rates might not fall as fast as expected, hampering growth in listing activities. With about two-thirds of outstanding mortgages still carrying rates below 4%, home sellers may choose to delay their selling plans, waiting for a better opportunity.
Forecasters expected the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates in March. However, given December’s strong jobs report and today’s inflation reading, it’s becoming more likely that those rate cuts will come later in the year, Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS, said in a statement.
Stephanie Horan is a lead data analyst for the MarketWatch Guides Team, specializing in home buying and personal finance. Beginning her career in asset management and transitioning to data journalism, Stephanie is a Certified Educator of Personal Finance (CEPF®). She is passionate about translating data to provide digestible insights for a broad audience. Her studies have been featured in CNBC, Bloomberg and the New York Times, among many others.
Edited By:
Andrew Dunn
Andrew Dunn is a veteran journalist with more than a decade of experience in the business and finance arena. Before joining our team, Andrew was a reporter and editor at North Carolina news organizations including The Charlotte Observer and the StarNews in Wilmington. In those roles, his work was cited numerous times by the North Carolina Press Association and the Society of Business Editors and Writers. Andrew completed the business journalism certificate program from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Editor’s Note: Parts of this story were auto-populated using data from Curinos, a mortgage research firm that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our methodology here.
Mortgage rates rose slightly in the first week of 2024, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increasing by 0.10 percentage points, according to data from Curinos analyzed by MarketWatch Guides.
This slight increase took place in the midst of mixed economic signals. The Labor Department reported that employers added 216,000 jobs in December, exceeding economists’ expectations, while the stock market had a rocky start to the beginning of the year. Through last Friday, the S&P is down roughly 1% year-to-date.
Economists with the Mortgage Bankers Association are still confident that rates will fall over the coming months. The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for the end of January, and though rates may be held steady at that meeting, the board previously indicated that they expect three rate cuts throughout the year.
Here are today’s average mortgage rates:
30-year fixed mortgage rate: 7.12%
15-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.41%
5/6 ARM mortgage rate: 6.87%
Jumbo mortgage rate: 7.01%
Current Mortgage Rates
Product
Rate
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
7.12%
7.18%
-0.06
15-Year Fixed Rate
6.41%
6.40%
+0.01
5/6 ARM
6.87%
7.00%
-0.13
7/6 ARM
7.04%
7.15%
-0.11
10/6 ARM
7.15%
7.25%
-0.10
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
7.01%
7.07%
-0.06
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
6.78%
6.87%
-0.09
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
6.78%
6.86%
-0.08
Disclaimer: The rates above are based on data from Curinos, LLC. All rate data is accurate as of Friday, January 12, 2024. Actual rates may vary.
>> View historical mortgage rate trends
Mortgage Rates for Home Purchase
30-year fixed-rate mortgages are down, -0.06
The average 30-year fixed-mortgage rate is 7.12%. Since the same time last week, the rate is down, changing -0.06 percentage points.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $673.38 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. You’re paying less compared to last week when the average rate was 7.18%.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages are up, +0.01
The average rate you’ll pay for a 15-year fixed-mortgage is 6.41%, an increase of+0.01 percentage points compared to last week.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed-mortgage at a rate of 6.41% will cost approximately $866.17 per $100,000 borrowed. With the rate of 6.40% last week, you would’ve paid $865.62 per month.
5/6 adjustable-rate mortgages are down,-0.13
The average rate on a 5/6 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.87%, a decrease of-0.13 percentage points over the last seven days.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, commonly referred to as ARMs, are mortgages with a fixed interest rate for a set period of time followed by a rate that adjusts on a regular basis. With a 5/6 ARM, the rate is fixed for the first 5 years and then adjusts every six months over the next 25 years.
Monthly payments on a 5/6 ARM at a rate of 6.87% will cost approximately $656.59 per $100,000 borrowed over the first 5 years of the loan.
Jumbo loan interest rates are down, -0.06
The average jumbo mortgage rate today is 7.01%, a decrease of-0.06 percentage points over the past week.
Jumbo loans are mortgages that exceed loan limits set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and funding criteria of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This generally means that the amount of money borrowed is higher than $726,200.
Product
Monthly P&I per $100,000
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
$673.38
$677.43
-$4.05
15-Year Fixed Rate
$866.17
$865.62
+$0.55
5/6 ARM
$656.59
$665.30
-$8.71
7/6 ARM
$667.99
$675.41
-$7.42
10/6 ARM
$675.41
$682.18
-$6.77
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
$665.97
$670.01
-$4.04
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
$650.59
$656.59
-$6.00
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
$650.59
$655.93
-$5.34
Note: Monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages are shown for the first five, seven and 10 years of the loan, respectively.
Factors That Affect Your Mortgage Rate
Mortgage rates change frequently based on the economic environment. Inflation, the federal funds rate, housing market conditions and other factors all play into how rates move from week-to-week and month-to-month.
But outside of macroeconomic trends, several other factors specific to the borrower will affect the mortgage interest rate. They include:
Financial situation: Mortgage lenders use past financial decisions of borrowers as a way to evaluate the risk of loaning money.
Loan amount and structure: The amount of money that bank or mortgage lender loans and its structure (including both the term and whether its a fixed-rate or adjustable-rate).
Location: Mortgage rates vary by where you are buying a home. Areas with more lenders, and thus more competition, may have lower rates. Foreclosure laws can also impact a lender’s risk, affecting rates.
Whether borrowers are first-time homebuyers: Oftentimes first-time homebuyer programs will offer new homeowners lower rates.
Lenders: Banks, credit unions and online lenders all may offer slightly different rates depending on their internal determination.
How To Shop for the Best Mortgage Rate
Comparison shopping for a mortgage can be overwhelming, but it’s shown to be worth the effort. Homeowners may be able to save between $600 and $1,200 annually by shopping around for the best rate, researchers found in a recent study by Freddie Mac. That’s why we put together steps on how to shop for the best mortgage rate.
1. Check credit scores and credit reports
A borrower’s credit situation will likely determine the type of mortgage they can pursue, as well as their rate. Conventional loans are typically only offered to borrowers with a credit score of 620 or higher, while FHA loans may be the best option for borrowers with a FICO score between 500 and 619. Additionally, individuals with higher credit scores are more likely to be offered a lower mortgage interest rate.
Mortgage lenders often review scores from the three major credit bureaus: Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. By viewing your scores ahead of lenders considering you for a loan, you can check for errors and even work to improve your score by paying down balances and limiting new credit cards and loans.
2. Know the options
There are four standard mortgage programs: conventional, FHA, VA and USDA. To get the best mortgage rate and increase your odds of approval, it’s important for potential borrowers to do their research and apply for the mortgage program that best fits their financial situation.
The table below describes each program, highlighting minimum credit score and down payment requirements.
Though conventional mortgages are most common, borrowers will also need to consider their repayment plan and term. Rates can be either fixed or adjustable and terms can range from 10 to 30 years, though most homeowners opt for a 15- or 30-year mortgage.
3. Compare quotes across multiple lenders
Shopping around for a mortgage goes beyond comparing rates online. We recommend reaching out to lenders directly to see the “real” rate as figures listed online may not be representative of a borrower’s particular situation. While most experts recommend getting quotes from three to five lenders, there is no limit on the number of mortgage companies you can apply with. In many cases, lenders will allow borrowers to prequalify for a mortgage and receive a tentative loan offer with no impact to their credit score.
After gathering your loan documents – including proof of income, assets and credit – borrowers may also apply for pre-approval. Pre-approval will let them know where they stand with lenders and may also improve negotiating power with home sellers.
4. Review loan estimates
To fully understand which lender is offering the cheapest loan overall, take a look at the loan estimate provided by each lender. A loan estimate will list not only the mortgage rate, but also a borrower’s annual percentage rate (APR), which includes the interest rate and other lender fees such as closing costs and discount points.
By comparing loan estimates across lenders, borrowers can see the full breakdown of their possible costs. One lender may offer lower interest rates, but higher fees and vice versa. Looking at the loan’s APR can give you a good apples-to-apples comparison between lenders that takes into account both rates and fees.
5. Consider negotiating with lenders on rates
Mortgage lenders want to do business. This means that borrowers may use competing offers as leverage to adjust fees and interest rates. Many lenders may not lower their offered rate by much, but even a few basis points may save borrowers more than they might think in the long run. For instance, the difference between 6.8% and 7.0% on a 30-year, fixed-rate $100,000 mortgage is roughly $5,000 over the life of the loan.
Expert Forecasts for Mortgage Rates
With mortgage interest rates climbing steadily throughout the first half of 2023 and exceeding 7%, prospective homeowners may be wondering: Will there be any relief going forward? Some experts are optimistic.
Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) project that rates will fall going into 2024 and throughout next year. In fact, the MBA predicts that rates will end 2024 at 6.1%.
More Mortgage Resources
Methodology
Every weekday, MarketWatch Guides provides readers with the latest rates on 11 different types of mortgages. Data for these daily averages comes from Curinos, LLC, a leading provider of mortgage research that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our comprehensive methodology here.
Editor’s Note: Before making significant financial decisions, consider reviewing your options with someone you trust, such as a financial adviser, credit counselor or financial professional, since every person’s situation and needs are different.
The average rate on 30-year fixed mortgages ticked down to 6.94% this week from 6.96% the previous week, according to Bankrate’s weekly national survey of large lenders.
Just a few months ago, the average rate on 30-year home loans topped 8%. But mortgage rates dropped after the Federal Reserve indicated it’d begin cutting its key rate in 2024. The central bank’s long-awaited pivot was spurred by a number of factors, including a slowing job market and signs that the Fed’s ongoing war on inflation is working.
Meanwhile, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds, an informal benchmark for 30-year mortgage rates, have dropped from 5% to around 4% in recent weeks.
The Fed doesn’t directly control mortgage rates, but it plays a pivotal role. The central bank sets policy that affects the cost of home loans. At the conclusion of its most recent meeting on Dec. 13, the Federal Open Markets Committee decided to leave rates unchanged.
“The recent decline in rates has given the housing market some cause for optimism going into 2024, but purchase applications have not yet picked up in response,” says Joel Kan, deputy chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.
The rate cool-off somewhat eases the housing affordability squeeze. It also bodes well for a housing market that has been sluggish since 2022. However, a still-strong economy has undermined hopes that the Fed will begin cutting rates soon.
“The economy’s not slowing down as quickly as the Fed would hope,” says Scott Haymore, head of pricing and secondary markets at TD Bank.
What happened to mortgage rates this week
The 30-year fixed mortgages in this week’s survey had an average total of 0.34 discount and origination points. Discount points are a way for you to reduce their mortgage rate, while origination points are fees a lender charges to create, review and process your loan.
Over the past 52 weeks, the benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7%. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.55%. Four weeks ago, that rate was 7.21%. The 30-year fixed-rate average for this week is 0.67%age points higher than the 52-week low of 6.27%.
As for other types of loans:
—The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.19%, down from 6.21% from a week ago.
—The 5/6 adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) was 6.95%, down from 6.96% a week ago.
—The 30-year fixed-rate jumbo mortgage was 6.94%, down from 7% a week ago.
How mortgage rates affect home affordability
The national median family income for 2023 was $96,300, according to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, and the median price of an existing home sold in November 2023 was $387,600, according to the National Association of Realtors. Based on a 20% down payment and a mortgage rate of 6.94%, the monthly payment of $2,050 amounts to 26% of the typical family’s monthly income.
The steep climb in mortgage rates over the past two years has squeezed affordability and sparked a slowdown in home sales. First-time buyers are especially challenged by this market. Home prices haven’t fallen significantly, and values are unlikely to decline, given the shortage of homes for sale.
“Higher mortgage rates have a dual impact on the housing market: reducing affordability for buyers and strengthening the rate lock-in for sellers,” says Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American. “The combination of reduced affordability and increased strength of the rate lock-in effect is likely to continue to suppress home sales because you can’t buy what’s not for sale, even if you can afford it.”
Reflecting the affordability squeeze, the median household income for homebuyers jumped to $107,000 in 2023 from $88,000 last year, according to the National Association of Realtors’ 2023 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers.
Will mortgage rates go down?
Economists expected to see mortgage rates decrease dramatically by now, but the resilience of the U.S. economy had thrown a wrinkle into those predictions. Things finally seem to be cooling, especially 10-year Treasury yields.
Mortgage rates are also chained to inflation, a metric the Fed has been moving to control. At its most recent meetings, the central bank opted to keep rates unchanged. While the Fed doesn’t directly set fixed mortgage rates, it does set the tone of the interest rate environment.
Methodology
The Bankrate.com national survey of large lenders is conducted weekly. To conduct the National Average survey, Bankrate obtains rate information from the 10 largest banks and thrifts in 10 large U.S. markets. In the Bankrate.com national survey, our Market Analysis team gathers rates and/or yields on banking deposits, loans and mortgages. We’ve conducted this survey in the same manner for more than 30 years, and because it’s consistently done the way it is, it gives an accurate national apples-to-apples comparison. Our rates differ from other national surveys, in particular Freddie Mac’s weekly published rates. Each week Freddie Mac surveys lenders on the rates and points based on first-lien prime conventional conforming home purchase mortgages with a loan-to-value of 80%. “Lenders surveyed each week are a mix of lender types — thrifts, credit unions, commercial banks and mortgage lending companies — is roughly proportional to the level of mortgage business that each type commands nationwide,” according to Freddie Mac.
Vendor and Lender Tools; Agency News; 2023: Hottest Year on Record
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Vendor and Lender Tools; Agency News; 2023: Hottest Year on Record
By: Rob Chrisman
Tue, Jan 9 2024, 8:37 AM
Is it just my imagination or do restaurants no longer have salt and pepper shakers on the tables after COVID? Is it just my imagination or do organizations with initials that begin with “N” have trouble keeping their leadership? In August of 2023 the chief of NAR resigned, last week it was the NRA, and this week it is NAR’s turn again, this time losing Tracy Kasper to blackmail!
Meanwhile, keeping on with real estate news, and realizing that anyone can sue anyone, news came out after Christmas that Zillow, which also owns Zillow Home Loans, is suing rivals over software that schedules property showings.
Agency news
Freddie Mac (FHLMC) and Fannie Mae (FNMA) still have the lion’s share of the applications coming through lenders. What’s going on with their conventional conforming products?
Fannie Mae SVC-2023-06 December Servicing Guide update advises large non-depository sellers/servicers of updates to the frequency of financial reporting requirements and provides other miscellaneous updates.
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are equipping lenders with updated resources for Uniform Loan Delivery Dataset (ULDD) Phase 5. Updates include an enhanced ULDD extension schema, featuring Phase 5 extension data points, and updated ULDD FAQs referencing the schema.
Fannie Mae posted the December Appraiser Quality Monitoring (AQM) list.
Pennymac Announcement 23-89 addresses Fannie Mae SEL-2023-09, Rental Income and Self-Employed Borrowers Update.
AmeriHome Mortgage Announcement 20231209-CL summarizes previously published changes made during December, additional changes made with the announcement, and recent Agency and regulatory news.
Mother Nature bats last
Yes, storms are a regular event around the world. For example, the storm hitting the Midwest and Southeast of the United States with blizzard conditions and potential flooding is “normal.”
What isn’t “normal” is 2023 being the hottest year on record, whether it is caused by man or part of a natural cycle over thousands of years. “Climate change deniers” can shrug it off, but when the increased likelihood of major storms, flooding, and forest fires impact mortgage pricing and insurance rates (if you can get insurance at all), and therefore your clients, it is a problem. Or if places like Honduras become unlivable due to the heat and lack of air conditioning, forcing shifts in where populations live, then it matters.
Tennessee Tornadoes: DR-4751-TN. and 4751-DR-TN Amendment 001.
On 12/28/2023, with Amendment No. 1 to DR-4751, FEMA declared federal disaster aid with individual assistance has been made available to three Tennessee counties, Cheatham, Gibson, and Stewart, affected by severe storms and tornadoes on 12/9/2023. See AmeriHome Mortgage Disaster Announcement 20231210-CL for inspection requirements.
Capital markets: pretty quiet out there
Economic data over the past week has highlighted the various effects tighter economic policy has had on different sectors of the economy. Interest rate sensitive areas remain the most strained, but 216k jobs were added during December and the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent, which shows labor markets have only moderated slightly. Most new jobs were concentrated in government, healthcare, and leisure and hospitality. November’s JOLTS report showed job openings continue to shrink as demand for labor slowly subsides and the quit rate fell below its pre-pandemic level.
December was also the 14th consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector of the economy, according to the ISM Manufacturing Index. Spending on durable goods has fallen five of the last ten months compared to spending on services which has only dipped once in the past 40 months. However, demand for services is expected to moderate as the economy slows. Construction spending ticked up 0.4 percent in November though most spending was concentrated in single family housing. Multi-family construction spending has lost momentum as vacancy rates have risen.
After a lack of news to open the week (we learned that consumer credit increased by $23.7 billion in November), today’s economic calendar is already under way with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December (91.9 versus 90.6, so a slight increase) and the November trade deficit ($63.2 billion, down from the prior month but little changed). Later today brings Redbook same store sales for the week ending January 6 and Treasury auctions headlined by $52 billion 3-year notes. Markets will also receive remarks from Fed Vice Chair of Supervision Barr. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices worse .125 from Monday’s close, the 10-year yielding 4.05 after closing yesterday at 4.00 percent, and the 2-year at 4.38.
Lender and broker services and software
Orion Lending slashed its annual expenses by $300,000 and boosted their conversion rate by 32 percent using Truv’s income and employment verification solution. “Truv transformed our verification process, expanding our reach and cutting costs,” asserts Richard Plummer, EVP of Operations at Orion Lending. Stop Overpaying. Contact TRUV today for your income, employment, insurance, and asset verifications.
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As we usher in the Year of the Wood Dragon, a mythical creature thought to signify unprecedented opportunities, the folks at Down Payment Resource (DPR) contend 2024 also will be the Year of Down Payment Assistance, with DPA offering unprecedented opportunities for lenders to qualify more homebuyers. DPR has been in the business since 2008, amassing a national database of 2,200+ verified DPA programs. As the original keepers of all things DPA, DPR makes it easy for lenders to match otherwise qualified applicants to assistance programs across the United States. DPA can help you qualify more buyers, especially LMI and minority buyers, reduce declined loan numbers and make you a strong contender for referrals and repeat business. That’s an unprecedented opportunity for 2024 you shouldn’t pass up. Need more info? Meet with Tani Lawrence at MBA IMB (Feb. 22-24) or schedule a virtual demo.
Partnering with the right subservicer can make the difference in growing your business and staying a step ahead of a dynamic mortgage market. LoanCare®, one of the nation’s top subservicers, can help you better manage and grow your portfolio in 2024 and beyond. We’ve serviced loans for banks, credit unions, independent mortgage companies, and portfolio investors for over 40 years with solutions for any servicing scenario. We’ll be at the MBA IMB Conference in New Orleans Jan. 22-24, contact us to learn why now is the right time to make LoanCare your servicing partner. And don’t miss Jerry McCoy, EVP, Performance Management at LoanCare speak on the conference panel, “Uncover the Hidden Financial Risks & Rewards in Your Servicing,” on Tuesday, January 23 at 1:30 p.m.
Broker & correspondent loan products
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There is a signalman up in Shasta County, California. He really wants to get a promotion, so he sends a letter to Union Pacific, and they send up an assessor.
He asks him what he would do if two trains were barreling down a track at each other.
The signalman says he would put one train on a passing loop.
“But what if the points are jammed?”
“I would throw the emergency switch”
“But what if the switch is on fire?”
“I would run out and use the lever on the line to switch the train into the passing loop.”
“But what if it was struck by lightning?”
“Then I’d get my uncle Frank.”
“Why?”
“He’s never seen a train crash!”
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This week’s Afford Anything blog post is a well-balanced diet:
Robert Kiyosaki predicts a massive crash — [philosophical]
Sobering stats about the housing market — [analytical]
Secret strategies to save on seasonal shopping — [practical]
The Robert Who Cried Wolf
Famed investor Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, recently caused an internet stir by predicting “the start of the biggest crash in history.”
Of course he did.
Kiyosaki is constantly crying wolf. It’s good for (his) business.
Bad news travels faster than good news.
People who prioritize attention over truth will use that to their advantage. Kiyosaki is a shrewd businessman. He understands the profit potential in strategic pessimism.
But that’s bad news for his followers. Per the law of large numbers, it’s reasonable that some people have kept their cash on the sidelines, rather than investing in the markets, after heeding his warnings. And that has massive lifelong ramifications on their wealth and retirement.
Lesson: Beware of anyone who peddles *negativity bias* in order to stay relevant.
These economic fear-mongerers don’t hold accountability for their track record of wrong predictions.
Their followers are the ones who suffer.
This is why it’s critical to choose your mentors carefully — and it’s precisely why you should never blindly enroll in an online class that’s taught by some random person whose ideas you haven’t vetted.
If you’re curious how often Kiyosaki has made the wrong call, note that Stanford-trained data scientist Nick Maggiulli, our guest on Episode 375 of the Afford Anything podcast, shared this illustration on X:
Pessimism has a visceral appeal. It’s evolutionarily advantageous to be hyper-aware of threats.
Our ancestors didn’t survive the jungle or savanna by appreciating the beautiful flowers. They survived by staying hyper-vigiliant of danger. This explains why negativity bias is so innate, so intrinsic. It’s a survival mechanism.
But in the modern developed world, pessimism keeps us overly conservative. We choose the “safe” major. We take the “steady” job. We tilt too heavily into conservative investments when we’re young, and we panic when our 401k’s start to decline. We avoid real estate investing and starting side businesses because these seem too risky.
Pessimism stifles innovation, entrepreneurship, and creativity. It locks us into mundane careers and middling investments as we muddle through risk-averse lives. In the end, we haven’t endured huge losses, but neither have we *embraced a shot* of winning.
As Episode 284 podcast guest Morgan Housel eloquently said:
“Pessimists get to be right. Optimists get to be rich.”
No, The Fed Lowering Interest Rates by 25 Basis Points Is Not Going to Flood the Market with New Housing Inventory 🙄
A little history lesson:
Once upon a time, in 2008, there was a Great Recession. It scared many investors and homebuilders, and they stopped making new homes.
In the decade that followed the Great Recession, new construction reached its lowest point since the 1960’s.
By 2019, the housing shortage amounted to 3.8 million units. This means there were 3.8 million more families and individuals who wanted a place to live — either to rent or buy — than there were homes available.
Then the pandemic struck. The prices of copper, lumber and other construction items shot through the roof (no pun intended). Builders had to raise home sale prices due to higher materials costs. Prices soared.
In 2020 and 2021, people across the internet cried, “Why are they charging so much more than the home is worth?!” — not realizing that “worth” is a function of the cost of labor + the cost of materials + the premium of scarcity.
And when supply is curtailed — as it was by 3.8 million units as of 2019 — there’s an ample scarcity premium.
Then inflation climbed. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates 11 times during their 2022-2023 cycle, resulting in a rapid escalation of mortgage rates.
This created a “lock-in effect” among existing homeowners. Nobody wants to trade a mortgage with a 3 percent fixed interest rate for an alternate mortgage with a 7 percent rate.
Existing homeowners with a mortgage have a huge incentive to hold.
Sellers who *need* to get rid of their property — for example, because they’re moving to another country — list their homes on the market. But homeowners who simply *want* to upsize or downsize are, for the most part, staying put.
This has created even more housing supply pressure.
Meanwhile, homebuilders — who must borrow money to finance their operations — are seeing the cost of capital skyrocket. Many have curtailed new construction, putting further pressure on the supply pipeline.
So we have a long-running confluence of factors that, piece by piece, keep exacerbating the housing supply crunch.
And this leads to today’s takeaway:
No, this problem will not magically solve itself the moment that the Fed reduces interest rates.
The Fed is meeting today and tomorrow. They’re widely expected to hold rates steady. (They’ll make an official announcement at 2 pm on Wednesday.)
There’s rampant speculation that the Fed will lower interest rates in Q1 or Q2 of next year.
— And —
There seems to be a pervasive myth that once interest rates decline, those “locked-in” homeowners will rush to list their homes for sale, flooding the market with new inventory.
The supply-demand imbalance will tilt in the buyer’s favor, home prices will plummet, and housing will become affordable once again.
Yet that is pure fantasy, disconnected from the data.
Imagine 10 people. Nine of them have mortgage rates that are less than 6 percent. The stat is 91.8 percent of mortgaged homeowners, to be precise.
Wait.
Imagine those same 9 people, the 9 out of 10 who have a sub-6 percent interest rate. Here’s how they break down:
One has an interest rate between 5 to 6 percent.
Two have an interest rate between 4 to 5 percent.
Six have an interest rate below 4 percent. The exact stat is 62 percent.
Let me say that again:
Six out of 10 mortgaged homeowners have an interest rate that’s below 4 percent.
Meanwhile:
One-half of mortgaged homeowners (49 percent) say they’d consider listing their home only if interest rates fell below 4 percent, according to a Redfin survey conducted by Qualtrics.
So this myth that if the Fed lowers interest rates, the market will get flooded with new inventory? — That scenario isn’t likely to happen for a long, long, looooong time.
As of Dec 12, 2023, the current average 30-year fixed rate for a buyer with a 740-760 credit score is 7.4 percent. Multiple reductions in interest rates won’t begin to approach the sub-4 percent rates of yesteryear.
The “lock-in effect” will last for longer than you might expect.
Lesson:Don’t wait to buy a home based on speculation about the market. If you have both the money and desire to buy a home, DO IT NOW. Homes are likely going to get more expensive in the future, not less.
How to Not Flush AS MUCH Money Down the Toilet This Holiday Season
Yeah, I know.
The holiday season is custom-built for parting with your money. Every store is promoting sales, discounts, offers. Limited time only.
It’s scarcity on steroids.
Holiday deals tap into the part of our brain that says — “this deal is only available now; I should snag it while I still can.”
Our FOMO creates jobs and drives the economy.
Since holiday spending is human nature, let’s forgo the guilting, shaming and finger-wagging that’s so endemic to the personal finance and FIRE community.
It’s counterproductive. Guilt and shame over holiday spending doesn’t change human behavior, it merely robs the joy from it.
It’s like chowing down a piece of chocolate cake while simultaneously fretting about the sugar.
You’re eating the cake regardless. You may as well enjoy it.
Instead, let’s accept that some degree of holiday spending is normal, and let’s focus on how to find the best deal possible.
Here are four pointers. (If you have more to add, please share these with the Afford Anything community) —
#1: If you’re buying an item at a mid-size company’s website (i.e., a merchant that’s bigger than a mom-and-pop shop, but not a big box retailer like Target or Amazon) — move your cursor near the “back” arrow on the browser.
This is called “exit intent,” and it often triggers pop-ups with discount codes.
#2: For online purchases: Create an account, put an item in your cart, and then leave the website.
This is called “abandoned cart,” and often triggers an automation in which the company emails you a limited-time-offer discount code.
#3: If you’re buying something expensive (over $500 – $1,000 or more), track the price for a few weeks, especially around the holidays. On sites like Wayfair, I’ve seen prices fluctuate daily.
#4: The least useful savings tip: Googling discount / promo codes or pulling these codes from mass aggregator websites.
You may get lucky, but typically 9/10 are expired or don’t work; they just yield a bunch of extra open tabs on your browser.
There’s an enormous selection of third-party websites and browser extensions that claim to help with this, with varying degrees of efficacy.
I’m not going to recommend any specific tools; recommendations are both dynamic and better crowdsourced. Please share your experience with the community.
Stephanie Horan is a lead data analyst for the MarketWatch Guides Team, specializing in home buying and personal finance. Beginning her career in asset management and transitioning to data journalism, Stephanie is a Certified Educator of Personal Finance (CEPF®). She is passionate about translating data to provide digestible insights for a broad audience. Her studies have been featured in CNBC, Bloomberg and the New York Times, among many others.
Edited By:
Andrew Dunn
Andrew Dunn is a veteran journalist with more than a decade of experience in the business and finance arena. Before joining our team, Andrew was a reporter and editor at North Carolina news organizations including The Charlotte Observer and the StarNews in Wilmington. In those roles, his work was cited numerous times by the North Carolina Press Association and the Society of Business Editors and Writers. Andrew completed the business journalism certificate program from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
Editor’s Note: Parts of this story were auto-populated using data from Curinos, a mortgage research firm that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our methodology here.
Mortgage rates rose slightly in the first week of 2024, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increasing by 0.10 percentage points, according to data from Curinos analyzed by MarketWatch Guides.
This slight increase took place in the midst of mixed economic signals. The Labor Department reported that employers added 216,000 jobs in December, exceeding economists’ expectations, while the stock market had a rocky start to the beginning of the year. Through last Friday, the S&P is down roughly 1% year-to-date.
Economists with the Mortgage Bankers Association are still confident that rates will fall over the coming months. The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for the end of January, and though rates may be held steady at that meeting, the board previously indicated that they expect three rate cuts throughout the year.
Here are today’s average mortgage rates:
30-year fixed mortgage rate: 7.18%
15-year fixed mortgage rate: 6.41%
5/6 ARM mortgage rate: 6.90%
Jumbo mortgage rate: 7.03%
Current Mortgage Rates
Product
Rate
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
7.18%
7.19%
-0.01
15-Year Fixed Rate
6.41%
6.38%
+0.03
5/6 ARM
6.90%
6.94%
-0.04
7/6 ARM
7.11%
7.11%
0.00
10/6 ARM
7.19%
7.19%
0.00
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
7.03%
7.08%
-0.05
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
6.84%
6.90%
-0.06
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
6.85%
6.87%
-0.02
Disclaimer: The rates above are based on data from Curinos, LLC. All rate data is accurate as of Wednesday, January 10, 2024. Actual rates may vary.
>> View historical mortgage rate trends
Mortgage Rates for Home Purchase
30-year fixed-rate mortgages are down, -0.01
The average 30-year fixed-mortgage rate is 7.18%. Since the same time last week, the rate is down, changing -0.01 percentage points.
At the current average rate, you’ll pay $677.43 per month in principal and interest for every $100,000 you borrow. You’re paying less compared to last week when the average rate was 7.19%.
15-year fixed-rate mortgages are up, +0.03
The average rate you’ll pay for a 15-year fixed-mortgage is 6.41%, an increase of+0.03 percentage points compared to last week.
Monthly payments on a 15-year fixed-mortgage at a rate of 6.41% will cost approximately $866.17 per $100,000 borrowed. With the rate of 6.38% last week, you would’ve paid $864.52 per month.
5/6 adjustable-rate mortgages are down,-0.04
The average rate on a 5/6 adjustable rate mortgage is 6.90%, a decrease of-0.04 percentage points over the last seven days.
Adjustable-rate mortgages, commonly referred to as ARMs, are mortgages with a fixed interest rate for a set period of time followed by a rate that adjusts on a regular basis. With a 5/6 ARM, the rate is fixed for the first 5 years and then adjusts every six months over the next 25 years.
Monthly payments on a 5/6 ARM at a rate of 6.90% will cost approximately $658.60 per $100,000 borrowed over the first 5 years of the loan.
Jumbo loan interest rates are down, -0.05
The average jumbo mortgage rate today is 7.03%, a decrease of-0.05 percentage points over the past week.
Jumbo loans are mortgages that exceed loan limits set by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and funding criteria of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. This generally means that the amount of money borrowed is higher than $726,200.
Product
Monthly P&I per $100,000
Last Week
Change
30-Year Fixed Rate
$677.43
$678.11
-$0.68
15-Year Fixed Rate
$866.17
$864.52
+$1.65
5/6 ARM
$658.60
$661.28
-$2.68
7/6 ARM
$672.71
$672.71
$0.00
10/6 ARM
$678.11
$678.11
$0.00
30-Year Fixed Rate Jumbo
$667.32
$670.68
-$3.36
30-Year Fixed Rate FHA
$654.59
$658.60
-$4.01
30-Year Fixed Rate VA
$655.26
$656.59
-$1.33
Note: Monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages are shown for the first five, seven and 10 years of the loan, respectively.
Factors That Affect Your Mortgage Rate
Mortgage rates change frequently based on the economic environment. Inflation, the federal funds rate, housing market conditions and other factors all play into how rates move from week-to-week and month-to-month.
But outside of macroeconomic trends, several other factors specific to the borrower will affect the mortgage interest rate. They include:
Financial situation: Mortgage lenders use past financial decisions of borrowers as a way to evaluate the risk of loaning money.
Loan amount and structure: The amount of money that bank or mortgage lender loans and its structure (including both the term and whether its a fixed-rate or adjustable-rate).
Location: Mortgage rates vary by where you are buying a home. Areas with more lenders, and thus more competition, may have lower rates. Foreclosure laws can also impact a lender’s risk, affecting rates.
Whether borrowers are first-time homebuyers: Oftentimes first-time homebuyer programs will offer new homeowners lower rates.
Lenders: Banks, credit unions and online lenders all may offer slightly different rates depending on their internal determination.
How To Shop for the Best Mortgage Rate
Comparison shopping for a mortgage can be overwhelming, but it’s shown to be worth the effort. Homeowners may be able to save between $600 and $1,200 annually by shopping around for the best rate, researchers found in a recent study by Freddie Mac. That’s why we put together steps on how to shop for the best mortgage rate.
1. Check credit scores and credit reports
A borrower’s credit situation will likely determine the type of mortgage they can pursue, as well as their rate. Conventional loans are typically only offered to borrowers with a credit score of 620 or higher, while FHA loans may be the best option for borrowers with a FICO score between 500 and 619. Additionally, individuals with higher credit scores are more likely to be offered a lower mortgage interest rate.
Mortgage lenders often review scores from the three major credit bureaus: Equifax, Experian and TransUnion. By viewing your scores ahead of lenders considering you for a loan, you can check for errors and even work to improve your score by paying down balances and limiting new credit cards and loans.
2. Know the options
There are four standard mortgage programs: conventional, FHA, VA and USDA. To get the best mortgage rate and increase your odds of approval, it’s important for potential borrowers to do their research and apply for the mortgage program that best fits their financial situation.
The table below describes each program, highlighting minimum credit score and down payment requirements.
Though conventional mortgages are most common, borrowers will also need to consider their repayment plan and term. Rates can be either fixed or adjustable and terms can range from 10 to 30 years, though most homeowners opt for a 15- or 30-year mortgage.
3. Compare quotes across multiple lenders
Shopping around for a mortgage goes beyond comparing rates online. We recommend reaching out to lenders directly to see the “real” rate as figures listed online may not be representative of a borrower’s particular situation. While most experts recommend getting quotes from three to five lenders, there is no limit on the number of mortgage companies you can apply with. In many cases, lenders will allow borrowers to prequalify for a mortgage and receive a tentative loan offer with no impact to their credit score.
After gathering your loan documents – including proof of income, assets and credit – borrowers may also apply for pre-approval. Pre-approval will let them know where they stand with lenders and may also improve negotiating power with home sellers.
4. Review loan estimates
To fully understand which lender is offering the cheapest loan overall, take a look at the loan estimate provided by each lender. A loan estimate will list not only the mortgage rate, but also a borrower’s annual percentage rate (APR), which includes the interest rate and other lender fees such as closing costs and discount points.
By comparing loan estimates across lenders, borrowers can see the full breakdown of their possible costs. One lender may offer lower interest rates, but higher fees and vice versa. Looking at the loan’s APR can give you a good apples-to-apples comparison between lenders that takes into account both rates and fees.
5. Consider negotiating with lenders on rates
Mortgage lenders want to do business. This means that borrowers may use competing offers as leverage to adjust fees and interest rates. Many lenders may not lower their offered rate by much, but even a few basis points may save borrowers more than they might think in the long run. For instance, the difference between 6.8% and 7.0% on a 30-year, fixed-rate $100,000 mortgage is roughly $5,000 over the life of the loan.
Expert Forecasts for Mortgage Rates
With mortgage interest rates climbing steadily throughout the first half of 2023 and exceeding 7%, prospective homeowners may be wondering: Will there be any relief going forward? Some experts are optimistic.
Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) project that rates will fall going into 2024 and throughout next year. In fact, the MBA predicts that rates will end 2024 at 6.1%.
More Mortgage Resources
Methodology
Every weekday, MarketWatch Guides provides readers with the latest rates on 11 different types of mortgages. Data for these daily averages comes from Curinos, LLC, a leading provider of mortgage research that collects data from more than 250 lenders. For more details on how we compile daily mortgage data, check out our comprehensive methodology here.
Editor’s Note: Before making significant financial decisions, consider reviewing your options with someone you trust, such as a financial adviser, credit counselor or financial professional, since every person’s situation and needs are different.