We had a few times in the previous cycle where the 10-year yield was below 1.60% and above 3%. Regarding 4% plus mortgage rates, I can make a case for higher yields, but this would require the world economies functioning all together in a world with no pandemic. For this scenario, Japan and Germany yields need to rise, which would push our 10-year yield toward 2.42% and get mortgage rates over 4%. Current conditions don’t support this.
The backstory
The lifeblood of my economic work depends greatly on the ebbs and flows of the 10-year yield, even more than mortgage rate targeting, which is unusual for a housing analyst.
When I first dipped into 10-year yield and mortgage rate forecasting in 2015, during the previous expansion, I said the 10-year yield will remain in a channel between 1.60%-3%. I’ve stuck to that channel forecast every year since — and for the most part that 10-year yield channel stuck. That range dictated that mortgage rates would roughly stay between 3.5%-4.75%.
When COVID-19 was about to hit our economy, I forecasted that the 10-year yield recessionary yields should be in a range between -0.21%-0.62%. We got to as low as 0.32% on that Monday morning in March when the crisis was hitting the markets the hardest. About a month later, I published my AB (America is Back) recovery model, which said that the 10-year yield should get back toward 1%. We got there in December of 2020 so I was able to retire my America is Back recovery model.
I said that when the economy was beginning the new expansion, the 10-year yield would create a range between 1.33%-1.60%. This couldn’t happen in 2020 but should happen in 2021. Even with the hot economic growth, the hottest inflation data in decades, and the Fed rate hike discussion picking up, this range of 1.33%-1.60% has held up nicely for most of 2021, meaning mortgage rates were going to be low in 2021.
My forecast for the 10-year yield range in 2021 was 0.62%-1.94% which translates to a bottom-end range in mortgage rates of 2.375%-2.5%, and an upper-end of 3.375%-3.625%. Single mortgage rate target forecasts have not fared well over the decades because these forecasters did not respect the downtrend in bond yields since 1981.
The X factor
Can there be a bond market sell out short term, sending yields above 1.94%, like what we saw early in the COVID-19 crisis? Yes, but if the markets do overreact for any reason, typically bond yields would fall back. Why do I not believe bond yields will push higher aggressively? The economic rate of growth peaked in 2021. The economy was on fire this year, and inflation data was super-hot. Even so, the highest the 10-year yield got was 1.75%. The economic disaster relief that boosted the recovery in 2020 and 2021 has been drawn down.
Government spending plans have also been watered down and new legislation might not even pass at all. Economic growth peaked in 2021 and some of the hotter inflation data has the potential to fall next year. The Federal Reserve wants to hike rates to cool the economy. Typically what happens before the first Fed rate hike is that the U.S. dollar has its biggest percent move higher ,which tends to hurt commodity prices and world growth. This is something to watch for next year as it could slow down world growth.
The economy won’t be as hot in 2022 as it was in 2021, but it will remain in expansionary mode. This type of backdrop will make it challenging for rates to rise in a big way and stay higher. The key with all my 10-year yield channel work is how long the 10-year stays in that channel during the calendar year. I have always believed this type of forecast is more useful than targeting a mortgage rate.
Existing-home sales
The forecast
For 2022, I am forecasting the same sales trend range as 2021 of about 5.74 million to 6.16 million. If monthly sales prints are above 6.16 million for existing homes, then I would consider the market more robust than expected. If sales trend toward 5.3 million then we will be back to 2019 levels. This would still be healthy sales considering the post-1996 trend, but it will mean housing demand has gotten softer.
This has happened before when higher rates have impacted demand. This is why since the summer of 2020 I have written about how if the 10-year yield can get above 1.94%, then things should cool down. However, as you can see it’s been hard to bond yields over that level and thus mortgage rates above 3.75%.
The backstory
If the last two reports of the year on existing home sales are above 6.2 million, I will admit that sales have slightly outperformed what I predicted for 2021. Early in 2021, I wrote that home sales would moderate after the peaks caused by the COVID-19 shutdown make-up demand and that readers should not overreact to this slowing. I wrote that sales would range between 5.84 million and 6.2 million, and that we could anticipate a few prints under 5.84 million — but sales would consistently be above the closing level of 2020 of 5.64 million. We got one print below 5.84 million and a few recent prints over 6.2 million, with two more reports. Mortgage demand was solid all year long and has picked up in the last 15 weeks.
One of my longer-term forecasts in the previous expansion was that the MBA Index would not reach 300 until 2020-2024. We got there in the early part of 2020, then the Index got hit by the COVID-19 delays in home buying to only have a V-shaped recovery that led to the make-up demand surge, moderation down and back to 300.
As you can see, it’s been like Mr. Toad’s wild ride here. We will still have some COVID-19 year-over-year comps to deal with up until mid February and then we can get back to normal. However, one thing is for sure: demand has been solid and stable in 2020 and 2021. Also, the market we have today doesn’t look like the credit boom we saw from 2002-2005.
I didn’t believe total home sales could get to 6.2 million in the years 2008-2019, this is new and existing home sales combined. We simply didn’t have the type of demographics in the previous expansion. We are in different times.
New home sales and housing starts
The forecast
My long-term call from the previous expansion has been that we won’t start a year at 1.5 million total housing starts until the years 2020-2024 and we have finally gotten here much like the 300 level in the MBA index. My rule of thumb has always been to follow the monthly supply data for new homes, and as long as monthly supply is below 6.5 months on a three-month average, they will build.
The backstory
Housing starts, permits and builders confidence are ending the year on a good note. Even though new home sales aren’t booming this year, it’s good enough to keep the builders building more homes even with all the drama of labor shortages, material cost and delays in finishing homes.
As you can see below, the uptrend has been intact even with the slowdown in 2018 and the brief pause from COVID-19.
The new home sales sector gets impacted by rates much more than the existing home sales marketplace. The last time this sector saw some stress from mortgage rates was in 2018 when rates were at 5%. Today’s 3% mortgage rates are good enough to keep things going. We should see slow growth in new home sales and housing starts as long as the monthly supply of new homes is below 6.5 months on a 3-month average. This sector has legs to walk forward slowly. I have never believed in the housing construction boom premise as mature economies don’t have construction booms with slowing population growth. More on that here.
The X factor
The one concern I have for this sector in 2022 is if the builders keep pushing the limits of home price growth to make their margins look better. When rates are low, they have the pricing power to do this. This is why the sector has done so well in 2021. If I am wrong about mortgage rates staying low in 2022, and rates go above 3.75% with duration, then demand for new homes should get hit. The longer-term concern for this sector is price growth because if demand slows down, this means a slowdown in construction and the builders really maximized their pricing power in 2020 and 2021.
Home prices
The forecast
I am looking for total home-price growth to be between 5.2% and 6.7% for 2022. This would be a meaningful cool down in price growth but would still be a third year straight of too much price growth for my taste.
The backstory
My biggest fear for the housing market during the years 2020 to 2024 was that real home-price growth can be unhealthy. When you have the best housing demographic patch ever recorded in history occurring at the same time as the lowest mortgage rates ever, with housing tenure doubling as it has in the last 12 years, it’s the perfect storm for unhealthy price growth.
Housing inventory has been falling since 2014 and mortgage purchase applications have been rising since then. As you can see below, 2021 wasn’t looking good for me regarding my fear for home prices rising too much.
The X factor
When I talk about real home-price growth being too hot, I mean that nominal home price growth is above 4.6% each year during the five-year period of 2020 to 2024, for a cumulative 23% growth. This would not be a positive for the housing market. If we end 2021 with 13% home price growth, (and it looks like we will do that or higher), then we have already achieved 23% of the price growth that I am comfortable with in just two years.
While I do believe home-price growth is cooling from the extreme high rate of growth we had earlier in the year, I would very much like to see prices get back in line with my model for a healthy market. In order for this to happen, we would need to have no increase in home prices for the next three years. Because inventory levels are falling again, and we are at risk of starting the 2022 spring season at fresh new all-time lows, this outcome is very unlikely.
Early in 2021, I had raised concerns that prices overheating should be the main concern, not forbearance crashing the market. When demand is stable, it’s extremely rare for inventory to skyrocket and American homeowners have never looked better on paper. In fact, a few months ago I talked about inventory falling again should be the concern going out.
Housing demand
The forecast
Everyone is talking about rates going higher and no one, it seems, is talking about the possibility that mortgage rates could go under 3% in 2022, except me. This is front and center in my mind. I want to see a B&B housing market: boring and balanced. In a B&B market, buyers have choices, sales move at a reasonable pace without bidding wars, and the whole home-buying experience is less stressful and more sane. I would like to see inventory get toward 1.52 – 1.93 million, (which is still historically low). However, this will be a more stable housing market.
The backstory
Millions of people buy homes each year. The only thing that cooled demand for housing in the previous expansion was mortgage rates going over 4% with duration. The increase in rates didn’t crash the market or even facilitated negative year-over-year home price declines; but it did increase the number of days homes stayed on the market.
Currently the biggest demographic patch ever recorded in U.S. history are ages 28-34, the first-time homebuyer median age is 33. When you add move-up, move-down, cash and investor demand together, demand will be stable and hard to break under the post-1996 trend of 4 million plus total sales every year in the years 2020-2024.
The X factor
Frankly, I’m getting tired of calling this market the unhealthiest since 2010. This is not due to a massive credit boom or exotic loan products contaminating the market with excess risk — it’s the lack of choice for buyers. If mortgage rates go under 3%, which I believe they can, it just keeps the low inventory story going on. The Federal Reserves wants to cool down the economy, the government is no longer providing disaster relief anymore and the world economies should get hit if the U.S. dollar gets too strong. So, my concern is about rates falling in year three of my 2020-2024 period. This is also a first-world problem to have and we aren’t dealing with the housing market of 2005-2008 when sales were declining and the U.S. consumer was already filing for bankruptcy and having foreclosures before the great recession started in 2008. This is to give you some perspectives here with my thinking.
The economy
The forecast
I expect the rate of change to slow in 2022 but the economy will still be expansionary. Retail sales have been off the charts, and this data line, which I expected to moderate, still hasn’t. The rate of growth will cool. Replicating the growth we saw in 2021 will be nearly impossible. As the excess savings have been drawn down and the additional checks that people got are no longer coming, this data line will find a more suitable and sustainable trend in 2022. Still I am shocked that moderation hasn’t happened already and I was the year 2020-2024 household formation spending guy, too.
The backstory
The U.S. economy has been on fire this year. Even with the excess savings, good demographics, and low rates, not even I thought we would see economic growth like we did in 2021. However, like all things in life, despite the peaks and valleys, the overall trend will prevail.
The X factor
I recently raised one of my six recession red flags after the most recent jobs report as the unemployment rate got to a key level for myself. These red flags are more of a progress checklist in the economic expansion, and when all six of my flags are raised, I go into recession watch. The economy is in a more mature phase of expansion since the recovery was so fast. Like everything with me, it’s a process to show you the path of this expansion to the next recession.
For housing, a strong labor market means more people are getting off forbearance, which is already under 1 million, much smaller than the nearly 5 million we had early in the crisis. I want to wish a Merry Christmas to all my forbearance crash bros who promised a housing crash in 2020 and 2021. You guys are the best trolling grifters ever!
More jobs and more robust wage growth mean the need for shelter will grow. The housing market is already dealing with too much rent inflation, but as wage growth picks up on the lower end, this means landlords will charge more rent. Again, this the problem you want to have, a tighter labor market means wage growth will pick up and we have 11 million job openings currently.
So, look for the rent inflation story to be part of the 2022 storyline, as well as the rate of growth of home prices cooling down.
There is nothing like a fifth wave of COVID-19 and a new highly transmissible variant to crank up the personal stress meter. While the continuing COVID crisis can cause havoc on some short-term data lines for the economy, we will, as we have done, get through this and move forward. Our reality is that, as a nation, we have learned to consume goods and services with an active virus infecting and killing us every day.
The St. Louis Financial Stress Index, which was a key data line to track for the America Is Back recovery model, has still been in a calm zone for the entire year, currently at -0.8564. When we break over zero — which is considered normal stress — then we have some market drama. However, that wasn’t the storyline in 2021 and we didn’t have a single day where the S&P 500 was in correction mode. It’s not normal to not have a stock correction, so a stock market correction in 2022 is in the works and this can lead more money into bonds and drive rates lower.
For more discussion on this index and the America is Back recovery model, this podcast goes over everything that has happened in 2020-2021.
Conclusion
What a ride it has been for all of us since April 7, 2020 when I wrote the America Is Back economic recovery model for HousingWire. We end 2021 with one of the greatest economic recovery stories ever in the history of the United States of America, and a terrible, dark, two-year period of failure for the extreme housing bears. Now we are well into a recovery and looking forward to a new year with its new challenges.
The job of the analyst is to forecast the positive or negative impacts that a whole slew of variables have on the economy based on carefully formulated economic models. The variables, such as demographics, the unemployment rate, what the Federal Reserve is doing, commodity prices and so many others, are constantly in flux and feed off of and influence one another. Additionally, new economic variables pop up all the time. My job, with every podcast and article, is to show you how the changes in these variables light the path to where the economy and the housing market is heading.
Take a deep breath — in through the nose and out through the mouth. The last two years have been crazy, but I am glad you are here to read this. This is our country, our world and our universe, and everyone is part of team Life on Earth. Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays and have a wonderful Happy New Year. We will get through 2022 one data line at a time.
“We have always held to the hope, the belief, the conviction that there is a better life, a better world, beyond the horizon.” Franklin D. Roosevelt
If you have ever applied for life insurance, then you know that there are several important criteria that you need to keep in mind.
One of these is the amount of insurance protection that you will need to have. This is because you will want to ensure that those whom you care about will have enough in benefits to pay certain debts or have enough funds in order to pay their ongoing living expenses to go on and not have to drastically alter their lifestyle.
But there is also another extremely important factor that you must also include in your purchase decision. This is the actual company in which you purchase the coverage through.
This is because you will want to make sure that the insurance carrier is strong and stable financially and that it is known for paying out its claims to its policyholders. One such insurer that has fit into this mold for many years is SBLI Life Insurance Company.
The History of SBLI Life Insurance Company
SBLI has been known for many years as being “The No Nonsense Life Insurance Company.” This insurer has been in the business of providing coverage to its customers for nearly 110 years. The company’s founder, Louis D. Brandeis, started the insurance carrier during one of the worst stock market crashes in United States history, as well as at a time when the insurance industry in the U.S. was thought to be corrupt and very expensive.
Because of this, Brandeis – who was an advocate for trustworthy and affordable life insurance for the American working family – decided to start the company. He did so by working to pass Chapter 561 of the Acts of 1907 – and act that essentially allowed savings banks that were incorporated under Massachusetts laws to establish departments to issue annuities and life insurance. Today, the company’s headquarters are still located in Woburn, Massachusetts.
Throughout the years, the company grew quite a bit – and by 1930, it already had $100 million of life insurance in force. By 1964, it had reached the mark of $1 billion of life insurance in force. Just 34 years later, in 1998, it was at $20 billion in force, and by 2003, the company had surpassed the $50 billion mark. As of 2012, SBLI had more than $125 billion of life insurance in force.
SBLI Life Insurance Company Review
SBLI is known for being a strong contender in the insurance industry. It is also extremely involved in the communities that it serves. It contributes and/or is a sponsor of numerous charitable organizations, including the:
American Heart Association (AHA)
Massachusetts General Hospital Home Base Program
Boston Marathon Jimmy Fund Walk
New England Center and Home for Veterans
The Massachusetts Affordable Housing Alliance (MAHA)
The Rodman Ride for Kids
Woburn Memorial High School
The New England Center for Children
The company has also earned endorsements from organizations such as the:
Massachusetts Bankers Association
AAA Southern New England
AAA Merrimack Valley
For those who are interested in a policy, or who are current policyholders and who need assistance, the company’s customer services representatives are easy to get in touch with. They can be reached via toll-free phone line during business hours. There is also an email form or a fax that can be sent into the company. Business hours are between the hours of 8:00 a.m. and 9:00 p.m. Eastern time Monday through Friday.
Financial Strength and BBB Grade of SBLI Life Insurance Company
Over the years, SBLI Life Insurance Company has consistently earned high ratings from the insurer ratings agencies. This shows the company’s ongoing financial strength and stability. These ratings include the following:
A+ (Superior) from A.M. Best
A- from Standard & Poor’s
Good from Weiss Ratings
Since 2007, SBLI Life Insurance Company (The Savings Bank Life Insurance Company of Massachusetts) has been an accredited member of the Better Business Bureau (BBB). It has received a grade of A+ from the BBB, on an overall grading scale of A+ to F.
Throughout the past three years, SBLI has closed two complaints through the Better Business Bureau, and no complaints over the past 12 months. Of these two complaints, one centered on issues with the company’s products/services, and one had to do with billing/collections.
Life Insurance Products Offered Through SBLI
SBLI offers many different types of life insurance products so that customers can essentially customize coverage to fit their specific needs, as well as to provide what is needed throughout every stage of a customer’s life. This also helps to provide coverage, no matter what a person’s budget.
Life insurance products that are offered through SBLI Life Insurance Company include the following:
Term Life Insurance Coverage
Term life insurance coverage, provides death benefit protection only, without any cash value or investment build up. Because of this “basic” approach, term life insurance can be quite affordable – primarily if the applicant is younger and in good health.
This type of coverage is oftentimes referred to as “temporary” life insurance. This is because it is purchased for specific amounts of time such as ten years, 20 years, or 30 years. With that in mind, it will be important to have a good idea of how long you will need coverage if this is the type of life insurance policy that you choose.
SBLI offers three different types of term life insurance protection. These are:
Guaranteed Level Premium Term Life Insurance
With the Guaranteed Level Premium Term Life Insurance coverage, premiums are guaranteed to remain the same throughout the entire period of the policy. This particular plan will cover the insured until he or she reaches age 85. Once the guaranteed level premium period has ended, the premium will go up each year until the insured reaches age 85.
The level premium periods that can be chosen include durations of 10 years, 15 years, 20 years, 25 years, and 30 years, and coverage amounts can range between $100,000 to $30 million for those who are under age 70. For those who are age 70 and over, coverage may go up to $10 million.
Yearly Renewable Term Life Insurance
With Yearly Renewable Term Life Insurance, the policy will renew each year. This means that the premium that is paid by the insured will be determined based upon his or her current age. This type of coverage can be extremely affordable in the beginning years, and then increase as the insured gets older. This particular policy will automatically renew every year until the insured turns age 90. There is no medical exam that is required each year to provide proof of insurability. Between the ages of 75 and 90, the amount of the insurance will decrease each year.
Up until the time that the insured reaches age 70, he or she will be allowed to convert the term insurance coverage over into a permanent life insurance policy. This can also be done without the need for a medical exam to prove insurability.
One Year Non-Renewable Term Insurance
An individual may also choose to purchase a one-year non-renewable term life insurance policy. This life insurance coverage will stay in force for only one year. Coverage amounts on this plan can range between $100,000 and $10 million, and applicants age ranges can be between 18 and 90.
Permanent Life Insurance Coverage
SBLI Life Insurance also offers permanent life insurance coverage. With this type of life insurance, there is death benefit protection, as well as a cash value component. The funds that are in the cash value portion of the policy are allowed to grow on a tax-deferred basis. This means that no tax is due on the growth unless or until the policyholder withdraws them.
Permanent policies that are offered via SBLI include:
Continuous Payment Whole Life
The Continuous Payment Whole Life insurance option covers an insured for his or her entire lifetime. This means that the death benefit is guaranteed, and the policy will remain in force – provided that the premium is paid. The cash value will also continue to build up. This particular policy has a maturity age of 121 years old.
Single Premium Payment Whole Life
The single premium payment whole life insurance policy will also remain in force for the entire lifetime of the insured. This policy, however, only required one lump sum premium in order for the policy to be considered paid up.
Because of this, the cash value will get a “jump start” and it will continue to grow at a guaranteed rate of interest over time. The cash can be borrowed or withdrawn for any reason that the policyholder wishes.
Limited Payment Whole Life Insurance
The limited payment whole life insurance policy will also cover the insured for their whole lifetime. With this policy, the premium payments are only for a limited period. In this case, the options are for ten years, 15 years, 20 years, or until the insured is age 65. This policy also has a maturity age of 65 years old.
Other Coverage Products That Are Offered
In addition to life insurance, there are other products that are offered through SBLI Life Insurance Company. These can help the company’s customers to build and / or to protect their wealth. Some of these products include the following:
Annuities
An annuity is essentially an insurance contract that is between an individual and an insurance company. These financial vehicles can offer a guaranteed income for the remainder of a person’s lifetime. This can help to alleviate the worry of outliving your retirement income – which is a major concern of many people today.
There are several different types of annuities. SBLI offers the:
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Optimizer MVA Series Annuity
Both of them are great options for supplementing your retirement income. There are a few different advantages to these annuities that you should take note of if you’re looking for a way to invest your money.
With their SBLI Single Premium Immediate Annuity is the best option for anyone that is looking to get payouts immediately. As you can probably guess from the name, you’ll only make one single payment, and then you start getting checks from the annuity.
With the SBLI Optimizer MVA Series on the other hand, it’s not an immediate payout. You’ll make an investment, which will then start building tax-deferred interest with payouts that will start on a date that you’ll pick. With this annuity, you’ll be able to make some withdrawals without the penalties if you’re ever diagnosed with a terminal illness.@media(min-width:0px)#div-gpt-ad-goodfinancialcents_com-large-leaderboard-2-0-asloadedmax-width:250px!important;max-height:250px!important
Elder Care Insurance
Because so many people are living so much longer today, long-term care has become a big concern as well. Unfortunately, that care can be very expensive. Therefore, many people are concerned about depleting their savings – primarily because Medicare does not typically pay for most kinds of long-term care needs.
SBLI offers SBLI Legacy Protection to help manage all of the necessary aspects of long-term care and estate planning – including legal overview, financial guidance, and nursing care management expertise.
How to Get the Best Premium Quotes on Life Insurance Coverage
When you are seeking the best premium quotes on life insurance coverage – either through SBLI Life Insurance Company or any insurance carrier – it is typically best to work with an independent agency or brokerage that has access to numerous different life insurance companies. That is because you will be better able to compare and contrast many different policies, benefits, and premium quotes, and then to determine which will be the best for you and your needs. This is not only true for when seeking the best life insurance policy, but when seeking other forms of covers as well, such as the best auto insurance companies and policies.
If you are ready to move forward with the purchase of a life insurance policy, then we can help. We work with many of the top life insurers in the industry today, and we can assist you with obtaining all of the pertinent details that you will require. All you have to do is fill out the form on this page, or you can jump over here and let Policy Genius guide you.
We understand that when it comes to life insurance coverage, there are a lot of options to choose from – even if you have been turned down in the past. But it sometimes takes having an ally on your side to help you narrow down what will be the best choices for you and your specific requirements. We will help to get you where you want to go. So, contact us today – we’re here to help.
Are you dreaming of owning a piece of the American Southwest? Arizona, with its vibrant desert landscapes, sunny weather, and diverse cultural attractions, offers an irresistible allure for those seeking a new place to call home. However, before embarking on this exciting journey, it’s essential to understand the homebuying process specific to the Grand Canyon State. From navigating local regulations and financial considerations to finding your perfect abode in a downtown Phoenix condo or a serene house in Gilbert, this Redfin article will serve as your comprehensive guide to buying a house in Arizona.
So, fasten your seatbelts as we explore the steps, intricacies, and tips to make your Arizona homebuying experience smooth and successful.
What’s it like to live in Arizona?
With its year-round sunshine and warm climate, Arizonans enjoy an outdoor-centric lifestyle by hiking, golfing, and exploring the vast desert landscapes. The state is also home to several renowned national parks and monuments, including the breathtaking Grand Canyon and the stunning red rocks of Sedona, providing endless opportunities for adventure and exploration. Arizona is also known for its intense summer heat, and protecting yourself and your property when living there is essential. Check out this article to learn more about the pros and cons of living in Arizona.
Arizona housing market insights
The Arizona housing market is experiencing some notable trends and shifts. The median sale price currently stands at $436,100, showing a 6.2% decrease compared to the previous year. Several cities in Arizona have emerged as competitive real estate markets, including Pinetop, Flagstaff, and Cottonwood. Popular cities in the Phoenix area, such as Scottsdale, Chandler, and Gilbert, are also witnessing significant growth and attracting prospective homebuyers. However, the housing supply in Arizona has decreased by 4.7% year-over-year, indicating a tightening market. These data points suggest a dynamic and evolving housing market in Arizona, with fluctuating prices, competitive cities, and limited supply, all of which have implications for buyers.
Finding your perfect location in Arizona
For several reasons, selecting the perfect location for buying a house in Arizona is vital. First and foremost, Arizona offers diverse landscapes and communities, each with its unique charm and amenities. By carefully considering your desired location, you can align your lifestyle preferences with the area’s offerings. Additionally, the location of your home greatly impacts factors such as commuting time, access to essential services, quality of schools, proximity to recreational opportunities, and potential appreciation of property value over time.
If you’re unsure where to start, using tools like a cost of living calculator can help you determine what cities are within your budget. We’ve put together a glimpse of the five popular cities, so you can get an idea.
#1: Tucson, AZ
Median home price: $330,000 Tucson, AZ homes for sale
Moving to Tucson offers a unique and vibrant experience that blends desert beauty, cultural richness, and a relaxed atmosphere. Outdoor enthusiasts can delve into the picturesque trails of Saguaro National Park, embark on invigorating hikes or bike rides in the nearby Catalina Mountains, or indulge in a round of golf on world-class courses. Embracing its rich cultural heritage, Tucson boasts a thriving arts scene featuring captivating museums, art galleries, and the renowned Tucson Gem and Mineral Show. While the cost of living in Tucson exceeds the national average by 4%, there are affordable Tucson suburbs, ensuring a balance between cost-effectiveness and access to the city’s attractions.
#2: Mesa, AZ
Median home price: $440,000 Mesa, AZ homes for sale
As the third-largest city in Arizona, Mesa is known for its suburban neighborhoods, well-maintained parks, and outdoor activities. Moving to Mesa, you’ll enjoy over 300 days of sunshine each year, making it ideal for outdoor enthusiasts. Explore the nearby Superstition Mountains, go hiking or biking in Usery Mountain Regional Park, or enjoy water sports at the nearby Saguaro Lake. Mesa also offers a rich cultural scene, with attractions such as the Mesa Arts Center, which hosts a variety of performances, exhibits, and festivals throughout the year.
#3: Phoenix, AZ
Median home price: $439,950 Phoenix, AZ homes for sale
Known as the Valley of the Sun, Phoenix is a bustling metropolis with a thriving economy, vibrant culture, and many amenities. With a move to Phoenix, residents can enjoy an abundance of sunshine throughout the year, allowing for a wide range of outdoor activities such as hiking, golfing, and exploring the scenic desert landscapes. Phoenix is home to major sports teams, including the Phoenix Suns and the Arizona Diamondbacks, offering exciting opportunities for sports enthusiasts. Additionally, if you’re looking for affordable Phoenix suburbs, several options provide a more budget-friendly housing market while offering access to the city’s amenities.
#4: Flagstaff, AZ
Median home price: $645,000 Flagstaff, AZ homes for sale
Flagstaff enjoys all four seasons, attracting residents who revel in the mesmerizing hues of autumn, the snowy winters that offer thrilling skiing and snowboarding opportunities at Arizona Snowbowl, and the mild summers perfect for hiking and camping. If you’re a lover of stars, moving to Flagstaff will grant you the chance to experience the Lowell Observatory, where residents can delve into the wonders of the night sky. It’s worth noting that the cost of living in Flagstaff is 14% higher than the National Average. Still, the city’s unique offerings and natural beauty make it a worthwhile investment for those seeking an exceptional living experience.
#5: Scottsdale, AZ
Median home price: $830,000 Scottsdale, AZ homes for sale
Scottsdale is renowned for its world-class resorts, spas, and golf courses, attracting visitors and residents seeking relaxation and indulgence. Scottsdale’s Old Town showcases a charming blend of historic charm and modern sophistication with its trendy boutiques, art galleries, and renowned dining establishments. Moving to Scottsdale can be expensive, with the cost of living exceeding the national average by 13%. If you want to stay on a budget, there are affordable suburbs outside downtown.
The homebuying process in Arizona
If the allure of Arizona has swept you away, and you have your heart set on a specific city or neighborhood, it’s time to dive into the homebuying process.
1. Prioritize your finances
Getting your finances in order is crucial when buying a house in Arizona. You can position yourself for a smooth and successful homebuying journey with careful financial planning and preparation. Start by assessing your credit score and addressing any issues to ensure you qualify for favorable loan terms. Next, determine your budget and calculate how much you can comfortably afford, considering factors like down payment, closing costs, and monthly mortgage payments. Using tools like an affordability calculator can help you determine your budget.
Various programs are available for first-time homebuyers in Arizona, including the Pathway to Purchase, which can assist with up to $20,000 in down payment and closing cost assistance.
2. Get pre-approved from a lender
Securing a pre-approval when buying a home in Arizona can provide numerous advantages. By obtaining pre-approval from a reputable lender, you clearly understand your financial standing and borrowing capacity. This knowledge empowers you to set a realistic budget, ensuring you focus on homes within your price range. Pre-approval also enhances your credibility as a buyer, demonstrating to sellers that you are serious and financially qualified.
3. Connect with a local agent in Arizona
Working with a local agent during the homebuying process in Arizona is of utmost importance. Local agents possess invaluable knowledge and expertise specific to the Arizona real estate market, which can significantly benefit buyers. They are well-versed in the intricacies of different neighborhoods, market trends, and pricing dynamics across the state. So whether you need a real estate agent in Tucson or an agent in Phoenix, they’re here to help.
4. Start touring homes
When touring homes in Arizona, keep a discerning eye and consider key factors that can influence your decision. First, pay attention to the home’s location and neighborhood. Consider proximity to schools, amenities, and commute times to ensure it aligns with your lifestyle. Assess the property’s condition, checking for any signs of wear, structural issues, or potential maintenance needs. Look for natural lighting, functional layouts, and ample storage space that meet your requirements.
5. Make the offer
The offer is a critical aspect of the homebuying process in Arizona, carrying significant weight in determining whether your dream home becomes a reality. Crafting a strong offer is essential to stand out in a competitive market. Consider the listing price, property condition, and local market trends to determine a fair and competitive offer. Your offer should include the purchase price, contingencies, and desired timelines for inspections, financing, and closing.
6. Close on the house
The closing process is a pivotal moment in the homebuying process in Arizona, where all the necessary paperwork is finalized, and ownership of the property is transferred. It’s a critical step that requires careful attention to detail and a thorough review of the closing documents. During the closing, you will sign various legal documents, including the mortgage, deed, and other necessary paperwork. It’s essential to carefully review and understand these documents before signing to ensure you know the terms and obligations.
If you’re new to the process and still have questions, Redfin is here to help. The First-Time Homebuyer Guide goes into more detail about each step in the homebuying process.
Factors to consider when buying a house in Arizona
Due to Arizona’s geographical location, there are distinct factors to consider when buying a home.
Climate and weather
When buying a house in Arizona, it is crucial to consider the climate and weather, as well as the impact climate change is having in the state. Arizona offers a diverse range of climates, with hot summers exceeding 100 degrees Fahrenheit (38 degrees Celsius) in desert areas like Phoenix and Tucson. These cities are also known for their mild and pleasant winters, attracting snowbirds and retired individuals seeking warmer temperatures. On the other hand, the northern parts of the state, including Flagstaff and Sedona, provide a cooler and more moderate climate, with snowy winters and comfortable summers. Homebuyers must take into account their preferences and tolerance for extreme heat or cold when selecting a location within Arizona.
Additionally, the state’s unique desert climate presents both advantages and challenges. Efficient cooling systems and proper insulation are necessary to combat the intense summer heat, while the dry weather increases the risk of drought and wildfires, prompting homeowners to consider shade availability, outdoor living spaces, and landscaping options to mitigate the sun’s impact.
Dual agency
Arizona allows for dual agency in real estate transactions, which refers to a real estate agent representing both the buyer and the seller in the same transaction. In dual agency, the agent acts as a neutral intermediary, facilitating the transaction and ensuring a fair process for both parties. However, it’s important to note that dual agency requires all parties’ informed consent.
Buying a house in Arizona: Bottom line
Navigating the homebuying process in Arizona requires careful consideration and strategic decision-making. From understanding the importance of location to getting finances in order, securing pre-approval, and working with local agents, each step plays a vital role in achieving a successful and satisfying home purchase. By being well-informed, proactive, and adaptable, homebuyers can confidently navigate the Arizona real estate landscape and find their perfect place to call home in this beautiful southwestern state.
Buying a house in Arizona FAQ
What are the requirements for buying a home in Arizona?
To start it off, a down payment is necessary, although the specific amount can vary depending on factors such as the loan type and lender requirements. A good credit score is also crucial, with a minimum score of around 620 often preferred for conventional loans. Income and employment verification is required to demonstrate the ability to repay the mortgage. Lenders assess the debt-to-income ratio to ensure borrowers can manage their monthly payments. It is advisable to conduct a property appraisal and home inspection to determine the value and condition of the property.
What is a typical down payment on a house in Arizona?
A typical down payment on a house in Arizona can vary depending on various factors. Generally, it ranges from 3% to 20% of the purchase price. The percentage often depends on the loan type, lender requirements, and the borrower’s financial situation. For conventional loans, a down payment of around 20% is ideal for avoiding private mortgage insurance (PMI). However, options are available for lower down payment percentages, such as 3% or 5%, particularly for first-time homebuyers or through government-backed loan programs like FHA loans.
What credit score do I need to buy a house in Arizona?
When buying a house in Arizona, the credit score requirement can vary depending on the type of loan and the lender’s criteria. Generally, a good credit score is preferred to qualify for favorable mortgage terms. A minimum credit score of around 620 or higher is typically required for conventional loans. However, loan programs, such as FHA loans, offer more flexibility and can accommodate borrowers with lower credit scores, sometimes as low as 580. It’s important to note that a higher credit score generally improves your chances of securing a mortgage with competitive interest rates and favorable terms.
Fannie Mae has upgraded its economic outlook for 2020, saying it expects the economy to get a big boost from growth in the housing market.
Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research Group said in a report this week that housing helped the economy to grow in the third quarter of 2019 for the first time in over 18 months, and says the momentum will continue into the fourth quarter and on to next year.
The
primary driver of economic growth next year will be consumer
spending, but housing will also function as a positive contributor in
the short term, Fannie said. It noted that sales of both existing and
new homes increased in the third quarter. Housing permits, pending
home sales, and housing starts also increased during the same period.
Still,
Fannie admits that the housing sector still faces challenges,
particularly around supply and affordability, which continue to be a
big obstacle for many prospective buyers.
The
economy is also at risk from the ongoing trade tensions between the
U.S. and China, and political uncertainty elsewhere in the world,
Fannie said. But its economists predict the Federal Reserve will make
at least one more interest rate cut in early 2020, before pausing for
the rest of the year.
“Even
as global uncertainties mount, we continue to expect the domestic
economy to produce solid, if not spectacular, growth,” Doug Duncan,
Fannie Mae’s senior vice president and chief economist, said in a
statement. “As we forecasted, housing supported the larger economy
in the third quarter, and we expect it to continue to play a
productive role through the first half of 2020. Positive
contributions from single-family housing construction, home
improvements, and broker fees pushed residential fixed investment
growth to a robust 5.1 percent annualized pace this past quarter, and
we forecast continued but moderating strength as construction
activity and home sales growth continue at a slower pace.”
With
mortgage rates normalizing, Duncan said Fannie experts to see
refinance activity decline in 2020. The refinance share of mortgage
originations will likely drop from a projected 37% in 2019 to 31%.
Mike Wheatley is the senior editor at Realty Biz News. Got a real estate related news article you wish to share, contact Mike at [email protected]
There was a viral tweet going around from YouTube housing influencer Nick Gerli. You’ve probably seen it. Gerli cites data from a company called AllTheRooms to make the case that the Airbnb/short-term rental market is “crashing” and it will have a big impact on inventory.
Indeed, the chart he shared is alarming.
A nearly 50% drop in revenue in some markets!
But the data looks dubious. I interviewed Jamie Lane, the chief economist and head of analytics at AirDNA. He looked at the AllTheRooms data and ran a mirror analysis with AirDNA’s data and, well, just look.
Revenue per listing is down, but it’s not down by a third or more in those markets, according to AirDNA.
AllTheRooms didn’t respond to my requests for comment, but Gerli, who runs Reventure Consulting, said he was aware of the discrepancies in the data and had reached out to Airbnb “to provide their own data for these cities so we can get the most accurate figures.” (Airbnb itself said in a statement that the data was “not consistent with its own” and added that “more guests are traveling on Airbnb than ever before.”)
Gerli, however, did offer high level thoughts on the situation. His outlook remains bearish.
“Both data sources agree that the Airbnb supply in America has surged over the last 2-3 years since the pandemic started, particularly in cities like Phoenix. In some markets there are now 2-3x more homes listed on Airbnb than for sale, a situation that has robbed the housing market for inventory,” Gerli wrote in an email. “However, now that the Airbnb correction has started, we will likely see struggling Airbnb owners look to sell their properties. Look for the downturn to be worse in cities where 1) the revenues declined the most and 2) there’s the highest surplus of Airbnb inventory relative to homes for sale.”
Lane at AirDNA doesn’t see a ‘crash’ happening, even though revenue is trending down from last year and it is a relatively saturated marketplace in some metros (the number of listings was up 18% over the same period last year).
“I see that as an entirely false narrative,” he said. “The short-term rental industry has very healthy performance right now. If you look at overall occupancies for 2023, the industry is going to run 57%. That compares to a pre-COVID [level] of 55%. So we’re well above pre COVID occupancy levels. We are down from the 2021 highs, but that was a COVID anomaly in terms of industry performance.”
AirDNA expects modest Airbnb revenue declines throughout the rest of the year – a 1% drop for the rest of the year and no growth in 2024.
Let’s dive in a little further. Lane maintains that the fundamentals in STR remain strong – we see lower churn today than we saw pre-pandemic, the travel desire is absolutely real, a large segment of the population is more mobile than ever (thanks, remote work!), and about 20% of listings are private or shared rooms, not entire houses.
More importantly, revenue for most hosts across the country is still strong nationally, reducing the likelihood of forced sellers, Lane said.
“If you look at revenue today, average revenue per listing compared to pre-pandemic, we are 30% higher, and that has barely come down off the highs in 2022. The earnings of short term rental operators have not collapsed by any means.”
But let’s say demand nosedives due to a recession and the numbers no longer pencil out for some operators. What impact would that have on the market?
It’s hard to say, but an STR crash like the one Gerli describes already did happen, back in 2020.
“In 2020, listings fell by 25%, we saw many markets essentially decline by half, with no disruption to the broader housing market,” Lane said.
Inventory, as ever, is key to all this. Currently, there are about 1.4 million short-term rental listings in the U.S. While there are about 600,000 active for-sale listings. Even if all the 1.4 million STR listings hit the market at the same time, I don’t think that would crash the market.
“Active listings in a normal period would be between 2 to 2.5 million,” said HousingWire’s Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami. “Even if all those homes came to market overnight, they would need to not get a bid over 60 days to allow the active inventory to return to historical norms.”
Added Lane: “When you look at major cities, let’s say the 50 largest metros, most of that [Airbnb] inventory is not available full time. Over 50% was available for rent less than 180 days over the previous year. So it’s not full time short term rental investments.”
Lane argued that a flood of Airbnb’s wouldn’t crash heavily saturated markets either.
“So you look at a market like Phoenix and how many new homes are being built any given year, that’s larger than the entire short term rental industry,” Lane said.
The broader housing market needs more inventory any which way it can get it, but I don’t see much coming from non-viable Airbnbs. What do you think? Share your thoughts with me at [email protected].
In our weekly DataDigest newsletter, HW Media Managing Editor James Kleimann breaks down the biggest stories in housing through a data lens. Sign up here! Have a subject in mind? Email him at [email protected]
There was a viral tweet going around from YouTube housing influencer Nick Gerli. You’ve probably seen it. Gerli cites data from a company called AllTheRooms to make the case that the Airbnb/short-term rental market is “crashing” and it will have a big impact on inventory.
Indeed, the chart he shared is alarming.
A nearly 50% drop in revenue in some markets!
But the data looks dubious. I interviewed Jamie Lane, the chief economist and head of analytics at AirDNA. He looked at the AllTheRooms data and ran a mirror analysis with AirDNA’s data and, well, just look.
Revenue per listing is down, but it’s not down by a third or more in those markets, according to AirDNA.
AllTheRooms didn’t respond to my requests for comment, but Gerli, who runs Reventure Consulting, said he was aware of the discrepancies in the data and had reached out to Airbnb “to provide their own data for these cities so we can get the most accurate figures.” (Airbnb itself said in a statement that the data was “not consistent with its own” and added that “more guests are traveling on Airbnb than ever before.”)
Gerli, however, did offer high level thoughts on the situation. His outlook remains bearish.
“Both data sources agree that the Airbnb supply in America has surged over the last 2-3 years since the pandemic started, particularly in cities like Phoenix. In some markets there are now 2-3x more homes listed on Airbnb than for sale, a situation that has robbed the housing market for inventory,” Gerli wrote in an email. “However, now that the Airbnb correction has started, we will likely see struggling Airbnb owners look to sell their properties. Look for the downturn to be worse in cities where 1) the revenues declined the most and 2) there’s the highest surplus of Airbnb inventory relative to homes for sale.”
Lane at AirDNA doesn’t see a ‘crash’ happening, even though revenue is trending down from last year and it is a relatively saturated marketplace in some metros (the number of listings was up 18% over the same period last year).
“I see that as an entirely false narrative,” he said. “The short-term rental industry has very healthy performance right now. If you look at overall occupancies for 2023, the industry is going to run 57%. That compares to a pre-COVID [level] of 55%. So we’re well above pre COVID occupancy levels. We are down from the 2021 highs, but that was a COVID anomaly in terms of industry performance.”
AirDNA expects modest Airbnb revenue declines throughout the rest of the year – a 1% drop for the rest of the year and no growth in 2024.
Let’s dive in a little further. Lane maintains that the fundamentals in STR remain strong – we see lower churn today than we saw pre-pandemic, the travel desire is absolutely real, a large segment of the population is more mobile than ever (thanks, remote work!), and about 20% of listings are private or shared rooms, not entire houses.
More importantly, revenue for most hosts across the country is still strong nationally, reducing the likelihood of forced sellers, Lane said.
“If you look at revenue today, average revenue per listing compared to pre-pandemic, we are 30% higher, and that has barely come down off the highs in 2022. The earnings of short term rental operators have not collapsed by any means.”
But let’s say demand nosedives due to a recession and the numbers no longer pencil out for some operators. What impact would that have on the market?
It’s hard to say, but an STR crash like the one Gerli describes already did happen, back in 2020.
“In 2020, listings fell by 25%, we saw many markets essentially decline by half, with no disruption to the broader housing market,” Lane said.
Inventory, as ever, is key to all this. Currently, there are about 1.4 million short-term rental listings in the U.S. While there are about 600,000 active for-sale listings. Even if all the 1.4 million STR listings hit the market at the same time, I don’t think that would crash the market.
“Active listings in a normal period would be between 2 to 2.5 million,” said HousingWire’s Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami. “Even if all those homes came to market overnight, they would need to not get a bid over 60 days to allow the active inventory to return to historical norms.”
Added Lane: “When you look at major cities, let’s say the 50 largest metros, most of that [Airbnb] inventory is not available full time. Over 50% was available for rent less than 180 days over the previous year. So it’s not full time short term rental investments.”
Lane argued that a flood of Airbnb’s wouldn’t crash heavily saturated markets either.
“So you look at a market like Phoenix and how many new homes are being built any given year, that’s larger than the entire short term rental industry,” Lane said.
The broader housing market needs more inventory any which way it can get it, but I don’t see much coming from non-viable Airbnbs. What do you think? Share your thoughts with me at [email protected].
In our weekly DataDigest newsletter, HW Media Managing Editor James Kleimann breaks down the biggest stories in housing through a data lens. Sign up here! Have a subject in mind? Email him at [email protected]
High above the Las Vegas Strip, solar panels blanketed the roof of Mandalay Bay Convention Center — 26,000 of them, rippling across an area larger than 20 football fields.
From this vantage point, the sun-dappled Mandalay Bay and Delano hotels dominated the horizon, emerging like comically large golden scepters from the glittering black panels.Snow-tipped mountains rose to the west.
It was a cold winter morning in the Mojave Desert. But there was plenty of sunlight to supply the solar array.
“This is really an ideal location,” said Michael Gulich, vice president of sustainability at MGM Resorts International.
The same goes for the rest of Las Vegas and its sprawling suburbs.
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Sin City already has more solar panels per person than any major U.S. metropolis outside Hawaii, according to one analysis. And the city is bursting with single-family homes, warehouses and parking lots untouched by solar.
L.A. Times energy reporter Sammy Roth heads to the Las Vegas Valley, where giant solar fields are beginning to carpet the desert. But what is the environmental cost? (Video by Jessica Q. Chen, Maggie Beidelman / Los Angeles Times)
There’s enormous opportunity to lower household utility bills and cut climate pollution — without damaging wildlife habitat or disrupting treasured landscapes.
But that hasn’t stopped corporations from making plans to carpet the desert surrounding Las Vegas with dozens of giant solar fields — some of them designed to supply power to California. The Biden administration has fueled that growth, taking steps to encourage solar and wind energy development across vast stretches of public lands in Nevada and other Western states.
Those energy generators could imperil rare plants and slow-footed tortoises already threatened by rising temperatures.
They could also lessen the death and suffering from the worsening heat waves, fires, droughts and storms of the climate crisis.
Researchers have found there’s not nearly enough space on rooftops to supply all U.S. electricity — especially as more people drive electric cars. Even an analysis funded by rooftop solar advocates and installers found that the most cost-effective route to phasing out fossil fuels involves six times more power from big solar and wind farms than from smaller local solar systems.
But the exact balance has yet to be determined. And Nevada is ground zero for figuring it out.
The outcome could be determined, in part, by billionaire investor Warren Buffett.
The so-called Oracle of Omaha owns NV Energy, the monopoly utility that supplies electricity to most Nevadans. NV Energy and its investor-owned utility brethren across the country can earn huge amounts of money paving over public lands with solar and wind farms and building long-distance transmission lines to cities.
But by regulatory design, those companies don’t profit off rooftop solar. And in many cases, they’ve fought to limit rooftop solar — which can reduce the need for large-scale infrastructure and result in lower returns for investors.
Mike Troncoso remembers the exact date of Nevada’s rooftop solar reckoning.
It was Dec. 23, 2015, and he was working for SolarCity. The rooftop installer abruptly ceased operations in the Silver State after NV Energy helped persuade officials to slash a program that pays solar customers for energy they send to the power grid.
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“I was out in the field working, and we got a call: ‘Stop everything you’re doing, don’t finish the project, come to the warehouse,’” Troncoso said. “It was right before Christmas, and they said, ‘Hey, guys, unfortunately we’re getting shut down.’”
After a public outcry, Nevada lawmakers partly reversed the reductions to rooftop solar incentives. Since then, NV Energy and the rooftop solar industry have maintained an uneasy political ceasefire. Installations now exceed pre-2015 levels.
Today, Troncoso is Nevada branch manager for Sunrun, the nation’s largest rooftop solar installer. The company has enough work in the state to support a dozen crews, each named for a different casino. On a chilly winter morning before sunrise, they prepared for the day ahead — laying out steel rails, hooking up microinverters and loading panels onto powder-blue trucks.
But even if Sunrun’s business continues to grow, it won’t eliminate the need for large solar farms in the desert.
Some habitat destruction is unavoidable — at least if we want to break our fossil fuel addiction. The key questions are: How many big solar farms are needed, and where should they be built? Can they be engineered to coexist with animals and plants?
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And if not, should Americans be willing to sacrifice a few endangered species in the name of tackling climate change?
To answer those questions, Los Angeles Times journalists spent a week in southern Nevada, touring solar construction sites, hiking up sand dunes and off-roading through the Mojave. We spoke with NV Energy executives, conservation activists battling Buffett’s company and desert rats who don’t want to see their favorite off-highway vehicle trails cut off by solar farms.
Odds are, no one will get everything they want.
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The tortoise in the coal mine
Biologist Bre Moyle easily spotted the small yellow flag affixed to a scraggly creosote bush — one of many hardy plants sprouting from the caliche soil, surrounded by rows of gleaming steel trusses that would soon hoist solar panels toward the sky.
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Moyle leaned down for a closer look, gently pulling aside branches to reveal a football-sized hole in the ground. It was the entrance to a desert tortoise burrow — one of thousands catalogued by her employer, Primergy Solar, during construction of one of the nation’s largest solar farms on public lands outside Las Vegas.
“I wouldn’t stand on this side of it,” Moyle advised us. “If you walk back there, you could collapse it, potentially.”
I’d seen plenty of solar construction sites in my decade reporting on energy. But none like this.
Instead of tearing out every cactus and other plant and leveling the land flat — the “blade and grade” method — Primergy had left much of the native vegetation in place and installed trusses of different heights to match the ground’s natural contours. The company had temporarily relocated more than 1,600 plants to an on-site nursery, with plans to put them back later.
The Oakland-based developer also went to great lengths to safeguard desert tortoises — an iconic reptile protected under the federal Endangered Species Act, and the biggest environmental roadblock to building solar in the Mojave.
Desert tortoises are sensitive to global warming, residential sprawl and other human encroachment on their habitat. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has estimated tortoise populations fell by more than one-third between 2004 and 2014.
Scientists consider much of the Primergy site high-quality tortoise habitat. It also straddles a connectivity corridor that could help the reptiles seek safer haven as hotter weather and more extreme droughts make their current homes increasingly unlivable.
Before Primergy started building, the company scoured the site and removed 167 tortoises, with plans to let them return and live among the solar panels once the heavy lifting is over. Two-thirds of the project site will be repopulated with tortoises.
Workers removed more tortoises during construction. As of January, the company knew of just two tortoises killed — one that may have been hit by a car, and another that may have been entombed in its burrow by roadwork, then eaten by a kit fox.
Primergy Vice President Thomas Regenhard acknowledged the company can’t build solar here without doing any harm to the ecosystem — or spurring opposition from conservation activists. But as he watched union construction workers lift panels onto trusses, he said Primergy is “making the best of the worst-case situation” for solar opponents.
“What we’re trying to do is make it the least impactful on the environment and natural resources,” he said. “What we’re also doing is we’re sharing that knowledge, so that these projects can be built in a better way moving forward.”
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The company isn’t saving tortoises out of the goodness of its profit-seeking heart.
The U.S. Bureau of Land Management conditioned its approval of the solar farm, called Gemini, on a long list of environmental protection measures — and only after some bureau staffers seemingly contemplated rejecting the project entirely.
Documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act by the conservation group Defenders of Wildlife show the bureau’s Las Vegas field office drafted several versions of a “record of decision” that would have denied the permit application for Gemini. The drafts listed several objections, including harm to desert tortoises, loss of space for off-road vehicle drivers and disturbance of the Old Spanish National Historic Trail, which runs through the project site.
Separately, Primergy reached a legal settlement with conservationists — who challenged the project’s federal approval in court — in which the company agreed to additional steps to protect tortoises and a plant known as the three-corner milkvetch.
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The company estimates just 2.5% of the project site will be permanently disturbed — far less than the 33% allowed by Primergy’s federal permit. Regenhard is hopeful the lessons learned here will inform future solar development on public lands.
“This is something new. So we’re refining a lot of the processes,” he said. “We’re not perfect. We’re still learning.”
By the time construction wraps this fall, 1.8 million panels will cover nearly 4,000 football fields’ worth of land, just off the 15 Freeway. They’ll be able to produce 690 megawatts of power — as much as 115,000 typical home solar systems. And they’ll be paired with batteries, to store energy and help NV Energy customers keep running their air conditioners after sundown.
Unlike many solar fields, Gemini is close to the population it will serve — just a few dozen miles from the Strip. And the affected landscape is far from visually stunning, with none of the red-rock majesty found at nearby Valley of Fire State Park.
But desert tortoises don’t care if a place looks cool to humans. They care if it’s good tortoise habitat.
Moyle, Primergy’s environmental services manager, pointed to a small black structure at the bottom of a fence along the site’s edge — a shade shelter for tortoises. Workers installed them every 800 feet, so that if any relocated reptiles try to return to the solar farm too early, they don’t die pacing along the fence in the heat.
“They have a really, really good sense of direction,” Moyle said. “They know where their homes are. They want to come back.”
Primergy will study what happens when tortoises do come back. Will they benefit from the shade of the solar panels? Or will they struggle to survive on the industrialized landscape?
And looming over those uncertainties, a more existential query: With global warming beginning to devastate human and animal life around the world, should we really be slowing or stopping solar development to save a single type of reptile?
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Moyle was ready with an answer: Tortoises are a keystone species. If they’re doing well, it’s a good sign of a healthy ecosystem in which other desert creatures — such as burrowing owls, kit foxes and American badgers — are positioned to thrive, too.
And as the COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated, human survival is inextricably linked with a healthy natural world.
“We take one thing out, we don’t know what sort of disastrous effect it’s going to have on everything else,” Moyle said.
We do, however, know the consequences of relying on fossil fuels: entire towns burning to the ground, Lake Mead three-quarters empty, elderly Americans baking to death in their overheated homes. With worse to come.
The shifting sands of time
A few miles south, another solar project was rising in the desert. This one looked different.
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A fleet of bulldozers, scrapers, excavators and graders was nearly done flattening the land — a beige moonscape devoid of cacti and creosote. The solar panel support trusses were all the same height, forming an eerily rigid silver sea.
When I asked Carl Glass — construction manager for DEPCOM Power, the contractor building this project for Buffett’s NV Energy — why workers couldn’t leave vegetation in place like at Gemini, he offered a simple answer: drainage. Allowing the land to retain its natural contours, he said, would make it difficult to move stormwater off the site during summer monsoons.
Safety was another consideration, said Dani Strain, NV Energy’s senior manager for the project. Blading and grading the land meant workers wouldn’t have to carry solar panels and equipment across ground studded with tripping hazards.
“It’s nicer for the environment not to do it,” Strain said. “But it creates other problems. You can’t have everything.”
This kind of solar project has typified development in the Mojave Desert.
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And it helps explain why the Center for Biological Diversity’s Patrick Donnelly has fought so hard to limit that development.
The morning after touring the solar construction sites, we joined Donnelly for a hike up Big Dune, a giant pile of sand covering five square miles and towering 500 feet above the desert floor, 90 miles northwest of Las Vegas. The sun was just beginning its ascent over the Mojave, bathing the sand in a smooth umber glow beneath pockets of wispy cloud.
On weekends, Donnelly said, the dune can be overrun by thousands of off-road vehicles. But on this day, it was quiet.
Energy companies have proposed more than a dozen solar farms on public lands surrounding Big Dune — some with overlapping footprints. Donnelly doesn’t oppose all of them. But he thinks federal agencies should limit solar to the least ecologically sensitive parts of Nevada, instead of letting companies pitch projects almost anywhere they choose.
“Developers are looking at this as low-hanging fruit,” he said. “The idea is, this is where California can build all of its solar.”
We trekked slowly up the dune, our bodies casting long shadows in the early morning light. When we took a breather and looked back down, a trail of footprints marked our path. Donnelly assured us a windy day would wipe them away.
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“This is why I live here, man,” he said. “It’s the most beautiful place on Earth, in my mind.”
Donnelly broke his back in a rock-climbing accident, so he used a walking stick to scale the dune. He lives not far from here, at the edge of Death Valley National Park, and works as the nonprofit Center for Biological Diversity’s Great Basin director.
As we resumed our journey, the wind blowing hard, I asked Donnelly to rank the top human threats to the Mojave. He was quick to answer: The climate crisis was No. 1, followed by housing sprawl, solar development and off-road vehicles.
“There’s no good solar project in the desert. But there’s less bad,” he said. “And we’re at a point now where we have to settle for less bad, because the alternatives are more bad: more coal, more gas, climate apocalypse.”
That hasn’t stopped Donnelly and his colleagues from fighting renewable energy projects they fear would wipe out entire species — even little-known plants and animals with tiny ranges, such as Tiehm’s buckwheat and the Dixie Valley toad.
“I’m not a religious guy,” Donnelly said. “But all God’s creatures great and small.”
After a steep stretch of sand, we stopped along a ridge with sweeping views. To our west were the Funeral Mountains, across the California state line in Death Valley National Park — and far beyond them Mt. Whitney, its snow-covered facade just barely visible. To our east was Highway 95, cutting across the Amargosa Valley en route from Las Vegas to Reno.
It’s along this highway that so many developers want to build.
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“We would be in a sea of solar right now,” Donnelly said.
Having heard plenty of rural residents say they don’t want to look at such a sea, I asked Donnelly if this was a bad spot for solar because it would ruin the glorious views. He told me he never makes that argument, “because honestly, views aren’t really the primary concern at this moment. The primary concern is stopping the biodiversity crisis and the climate crisis.”
“There are certain places where we shouldn’t put solar because it’s a wild and undisturbed landscape,” he said.
As far as he’s concerned, though, the Amargosa Valley isn’t one of those landscapes, what with Highway 95 running through it. The same goes for Dry Lake Valley, where NV Energy’s solar construction site is already surrounded by energy infrastructure.
What Donnelly would like to see is better planning.
He pointed to California, where state and federal officials spent eight years crafting a desert conservation plan that allows solar and wind farms across a few hundred thousand acres while setting aside millions more for protection. He thinks a similar process is crucial in Nevada, where four-fifths of the land area is owned by the federal government — more than any other state.
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If Donnelly had his way, regulators would put the kibosh on solar farms immediately adjacent to Big Dune. He’s worried they could alter the movement of sand across the desert floor, affecting several rare beetles that call the dune home.
But if the feds want to allow solar projects along the highway to the south, near the Area 51 Alien Center?
“Might not be the end the world,” Donnelly said.
He shot me a grin.
“You know, one thing I like to do …”
Without warning, he took off racing down the dune, carried by momentum and love for the desert. He laughed as he reached a natural stopping point, calling for us to join him. His voice sounded free and full of possibility.
Some solar panels on the horizon wouldn’t have changed that.
Shout it from the rooftops
Laura Cunningham and Kevin Emmerich were a match made in Mojave Desert heaven.
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Cunningham was a wildlife biologist, Emmerich a park ranger when they met nearly 30 years ago at Death Valley. She studied tortoises for government agencies and later a private contractor. He worked with bighorn sheep and gave interpretive talks. They got married, bought property along the Amargosa River and started their own conservation group, Basin and Range Watch.
And they’ve been fighting solar development ever since.
That’s how we ended up in the back of their SUV, pulling open a rickety cattle gate off Highway 95 and driving past wild burros on a dirt road through Nevada’s Bullfrog Hills, 100 miles northwest of Las Vegas.
They had told us Sarcobatus Flat was stunning, but I was still surprised by how stunning. I got my first look as we crested a ridge. The gently sloping valley spilled down toward Death Valley National Park, whose snowy mountain peaks towered over a landscape dotted with thousands of Joshua trees.
“Everything we’re looking at is proposed for solar development,” Cunningham said.
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Most environmentalists agree we need at least some large solar farms. Cunningham and Emmerich are different. They’re at the vanguard of a harder-core desert protection movement that sees all large-scale solar farms on public lands as bad news.
Why had so many companies converged on Sarcobatus Flat?
The main answer is transmission. NV Energy is seeking federal approval to build the 358-mile Greenlink West electric line, which would carry thousands of megawatts of renewable power between Reno and Las Vegas along the Highway 95 corridor.
The dirt road curved around a small hill, and suddenly we found ourselves on the valley floor, surrounded by Joshua trees. Some looked healthy; others had bark that had been chewed by rodents seeking water, a sign of drought stress. Scientists estimate the Joshua tree’s western subspecies could lose 90% of its range as the world gets hotter and droughts get more intense.
But asked whether climate change or solar posed a bigger threat to Sarcobatus Flat, Cunningham didn’t hesitate.
“Oh, solar development hands down,” she said.
Nearly 20 years ago, she said, she helped relocate desert tortoises to make way for a test track in California. One of them tried to return home, walking 20 miles before hitting a fence. It paced back and forth and eventually died of heat exhaustion.
Solar farms, she said, pose a similar threat to tortoises. And at Sarcobatus Flat, they would cover a high-elevation area that could otherwise serve as a climate refuge for Joshua trees, giving them a relatively cool place to reproduce as the planet heats up.
“It makes no sense to me that we’re going to bulldoze them down and throw them into trash piles. It’s just crazy,” she said.
In Cunningham and Emmerich’s view, every sun-baked parking lot in L.A. and Vegas and Phoenix should have a solar canopy, every warehouse and single-family home a solar roof. It’s a common argument among desert defenders: Why sacrifice sensitive ecosystems when there’s an easy alternative for fighting climate change? Especially when rooftop solar can reduce strain on an overtaxed electric grid and — when paired with batteries — help people keep their lights on during blackouts?
The answer isn’t especially satisfying to conservationists.
For all the virtues of rooftop solar, it’s an expensive way to generate clean power — and keeping energy costs low is crucial to ensure that lower-income families can afford electric cars, another key climate solution. A recent report from investment bank Lazard pegged the cost of rooftop solar at 11.7 cents per kilowatt-hour on the low end, compared with 2.4 cents for utility solar.
Even when factoring in pricey long-distance electric lines, utility-scale solar is typically cheaper, several experts told me.
“It’s three to six times more expensive to put solar on your roof than to put it in a large-scale project,” said Jesse Jenkins, an energy systems researcher at Princeton University. “There may be some added value to having solar in the Los Angeles Basin instead of the middle of the Mojave Desert. But is it 300% to 600% more value? Probably not. It’s probably not even close.”
There’s a practical challenge, too.
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has estimated U.S. rooftops could generate 1,432 terawatt-hours of electricity per year — just 13% of the power America will need to replace most of its coal, oil and gas, according to research led by Jenkins.
Add in parking lots and other areas within cities, and urban solar systems might conceivably supply one-quarter or even one-third of U.S. power, several experts told The Times — in an unlikely scenario where they’re installed in every suitable spot.
Energy researcher Chris Clack’s consulting firm has found that dramatic growth in rooftop and other small-scale solar installations could reduce the costs of slashing climate pollution by half a trillion dollars. But even Clack said rooftops alone won’t cut it.
“Realistically, 80% is going to end up being utility grid no matter what,” he said.
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All those industrial renewable energy projects will have to go somewhere.
Sarcobatus Flat may not be the answer. Federal officials classified all three solar proposals there as “low priority,” citing their proximity to Death Valley and potential harm to tortoise habitat. One developer withdrew its application last year.
Before leaving the area, Cunningham pointed to a wooden marker, one of at least half a dozen stretching out in a line. I walked over to take a closer look and discovered it was a mining claim for lithium — a main ingredient in electric-car batteries.
If solar development didn’t upend this valley, lithium extraction might.
On the beaten track
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The four-wheeler jerked violently as Erica Muxlow pressed her foot to the gas, sending us flying down a rough dirt road with no end in sight but the distant mountains. Five-point safety straps were the only things stopping us from flying out of our seats, the vehicle leaping through the air as we reached speeds of 40 mph, then 50 mph, the wind whipping our faces.
It was like riding Disneyland’s Matterhorn Bobsleds — just without the Yeti.
Ahead of us, Muxlow’s neighbor Jimmy Lewis led the way on an electric blue motorcycle, kicking up a stream of sand. He wanted us to see thousands of acres of public lands outside his adopted hometown of Pahrump, in Nevada’s Nye County, that could soon be blocked by solar projects — cutting off access to off-highway vehicle enthusiasts such as himself.
“You could build an apartment complex or a shopping mall here, and it would be the same thing to me,” he said.
To progressive-minded Angelenos or San Franciscans, preserving large chunks of public land for gas-guzzling, environmentally destructive dirt bikes might sound like a terrible reason not to build solar farms that would lessen the climate crisis.
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But here’s the reality: Rural Westerners such as Lewis will play a key role in determining how much clean energy gets built.
Not long before our Nevada trip, Nye County placed a six-month pause on new renewable energy projects, citing local concerns about loss of off-road vehicle trails. Similar fears have stymied development across the U.S., with rural residents attacking solar and wind farms as industrial intrusions on their way of life — and local governments throwing up roadblocks.
For Lewis, the conflict is deeply personal.
He moved here from Southern California more than a decade ago, trading life by the beach for a five-acre plot where he runs an off-roading school and test-drives motorcycles for manufacturers. His warehouse was packed with dozens of dirt bikes.
“This is my life. Motorcycles, motorcycles, motorcycles,” he said, laughing.
Lewis has worked to stir up opposition to three local solar farm proposals. So far, his efforts have been in vain.
One project is already under construction. Peering through a fence, we saw row after row of trusses, waiting for their photovoltaic panels. It’s called Yellow Pine, and it’s being built by Florida-based NextEra Energy to supply power to California.
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Lewis learned about Yellow Pine when he was riding one of his favorite trails and was surprised to find it cut off. He compared the experience to riding the best roller-coaster at a theme park, only to have it grind to a halt three-quarters of the way through.
“I don’t want my playground taken away from me,” he said.
“Me neither!” a voice called out from behind us.
We turned and were greeted by Shannon Salter, an activist who had previously spent nine months camping near the Yellow Pine site to protest the habitat destruction. She and Lewis had never met, but they quickly realized they had common cause.
“It’s the opposite of green!” Salter said.
“On my roof, not my backyard,” Lewis agreed.
Never mind that conservationists have long decried the ecological damage from desert off-roading. Salter and Lewis both cared about these lands. Neither wanted to see the solar industry lay claim to them. They talked about staying in touch.
It’s easy to imagine similar alliances forming across the West, the clean energy transition bringing together environmentalists and rural residents in a battle to defend their lifestyles, their landscapes and animals that can’t fight for themselves.
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It’s also easy to imagine major cities that badly need lots of solar and wind power — Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Phoenix — brushing off those complaints as insignificant compared with the climate emergency, or as fueled by right-wing misinformation.
But many of concerns raised by critics are legitimate. And their voices are only getting louder.
As night fell over the Mojave, Lewis shared his idea that any city buying electricity from a desert solar farm should be required to install a certain amount of rooftop solar back home first — on government buildings, at least. It only seemed fair.
“Some people see the desert as just a wasteland,” Lewis said. “I think it’s beautiful.”
The view from Black Mountain
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So how do we build enough renewable energy to replace fossil fuels without destroying too many ecosystems, or stoking too much political opposition from rural towns, or moving too slowly to save the planet?
Few people could do more to ease those tensions than Buffett.
Our conversation kept returning to the legendary investor as we hiked Black Mountain, just outside Vegas, on our last morning in the Silver State. We were joined by Jaina Moan, director of external affairs for the Nature Conservancy’s Nevada chapter. She had promised a view of massive solar fields from the peak — but only after a 3.5-mile trek with 2,000 feet of elevation gain.
“It’ll be a little StairMaster at the end,” she warned us.
The homes and hotels and casinos of the Las Vegas Valley retreated behind us as we climbed, looking ever smaller and more insignificant against the vast open desert. It was an illusion that will prove increasingly difficult to maintain as Sin City and its suburbs continue their march into the Mojave. Nevada politicians from both parties are pushing for legislation that would let federal officials auction off additional public lands for residential and commercial development.
Vegas and other Western cities could limit the need for more suburbs — and sprawling solar farms — by growing smarter, Moan said. Urban areas could embrace density, to help people drive fewer miles and reduce the demand for new power supplies to fuel electric vehicles. They could invest in electric buses and trains — and use less water, which would save a lot of energy.
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“As our spaces become more crowded, we’re going to have to come up with more creative ideas,” Moan said.
That’s where Buffett could make things easier.
The billionaire’s Berkshire Hathaway company owns electric utilities that serve millions of people, from California to Nevada to Illinois. Those utilities, Moan said, could buck the industry trend of urging policymakers to reduce financial incentives for rooftop solar and instead encourage the technology — along with other small-scale clean energy solutions, such as local microgrids.
That would limit the need for big solar farms — at least somewhat.
Berkshire and other energy giants could also build solar on lands already altered by humans, such as abandoned mines, toxic Superfund sites, reservoirs, landfills, agricultural areas, highway corridors and canals that carry water to farms and cities.
The costs are typically higher than building on undisturbed public lands. And in many cases there are technical challenges yet to be resolved. But those kinds of “creative solutions” could at least lessen the loss of biodiversity, Moan said.
“There’s money to be made there, and there’s good to be done,” she said.
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It’s hard to know what Buffett thinks. A Berkshire spokesperson declined my request to interview him.
Tony Sanchez, NV Energy’s executive vice president for business development and external relations, was more forthcoming.
“The problem for us with rooftop solar,” he said, is that it’s “not controlled at all by us.” As a result, NV Energy can’t decide when and how rooftop solar power is used — and can’t rely on that power to help balance supply and demand on the grid.
Over time, Sanchez predicted, a lot more rooftop solar will get built. But he couldn’t say how much.
Rooftop solar faces a similarly uncertain future in California, where state officials voted last year to slash incentive payments, calling them an unfair subsidy. Industry leaders have warned of a dramatic decline in installations.
As we neared the top of Black Mountain, the solar farms on the other side came into view. They stretched across the Eldorado Valley far below — black rectangles that could help save life on Earth while also destroying bits and pieces of it.
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Moan believes the key to balancing clean energy and conservation is “go slow to go fast.” Government agencies, she said, should work with conservation activists, small-town residents and Native American tribes to study and map out the best places for clean energy, then reward companies that agree to build in those areas with faster approvals. Solar and wind development would slow down in the short term but speed up in the long run, with quicker environmental reviews and less risk of lawsuits.
It’s a tantalizing concept — but I confessed to Moan that I worried it would backfire.
What if the sparring factions couldn’t agree on the best spots to build solar and wind farms, and instead wasted years arguing? Or what if they did manage to hammer out some compromises, only for a handful of unhappy people or groups to take them to court, gumming up the works? Couldn’t “go slow to go fast” end up becoming “go slow to go slow”?
In other words, should we really bet our collective future on human beings working together, rather than fighting?
Moan was sympathetic to my fears. She also didn’t see another way forward.
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“We really need to think holistically about saving everything,” she said.
The sad truth is, not everything can be saved. Not if we want to keep the world livable for people and animals alike.
Some beloved landscapes will be left unrecognizable. Some families will be stuck paying high energy bills to monopoly utilities, even as some utility investors make less money. Some tortoises will probably die, pacing along fences in the heat.
The alternative is worse.
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Mortgage applications fell 4% for the week ending Dec. 10, large part because fewer borrowers are looking to refi their exiting mortgages, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) survey published on Wednesday.
The decrease was mainly driven by the refi index falling 6.4% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis. Concurrently, the purchase index increased 0.7% from the week prior.
Compared to a year ago, mortgage applications declined across the board. The overall market composite index dipped 30.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis. Refi apps fell 41.4% year over year, and purchase applications decreased 10.3% in the same period.
“Fewer homeowners have a strong incentive to refinance at current rates,” Joel Kan, the MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting, said in a statement.
The trade group estimates that the average contract 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for conforming loans ($548,250 or less) remained unchanged at 3.30%. For jumbo mortgage loans (greater than $548,250), rates decreased to 3.32% from 3.33% the week prior.
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Regarding the purchase market, Kan said mortgage applications increased slightly because a 1.7% rise in conventional applications offset a 1.6% decline in applications for government loans. Would-be homebuyers are finding it hard to compete with FHA and VA loans in a purchase market defined by low inventory. Sellers today are prioritizing cash offers and prospective buyers with conventional mortgage approval, particularly given that the Federal Housing Finance Agency just approved higher loan borrowing limits.
“The strength in conventional purchase activity continues to support higher loan balances, which moved back over $400,000. Housing demand remains strong as the year comes to an end amidst tight inventory and steep home-price growth,” Kan said.
Refinances represented 63.3% of total mortgage applications, down slightly from 63.9% the previous week. VA loans comprised 10.6%, decreasing one basis point. Meanwhile, FHA loans went from 9.9% to 9.6% in the period. The USDA share was at 0.5% of the total.
High mortgage rates forcing sellers to accept lower offers on homes – Zoopla
Research shows 42% agreeing to discounts of 5% or more on asking price – the highest level for five years
Soaring mortgage rates and the cost of living crisis are forcing more sellers to accept lower offers to secure a property sale, according to Zoopla.
The property website latest house price index showed that 42% of sellers were accepting discounts of 5% or more on the asking price of their home in the week ending 18 June – the highest level since 2018 – as buyers are driving a harder bargain.
Meanwhile, 15% of those trying to sell their home were accepting discounts of more than 10% on the initial asking price in the same time period. Buyers are pushing for lower prices because of higher mortgage rates and the cost of living crisis.
The average price of two- and five-year fixed-rate mortgages has hit the highest level for seven months, putting further pressure on borrowers reaching the end of their deals and on the buying power of those looking for a new home.
The latest data from the financial information firm Moneyfacts showed the average two-year fixed residential mortgage rate was 6.26% on Tuesday, up from 6.23% on Monday. The average five-year fixed residential mortgage rate was 5.87%, up from 5.86% on the previous day.
Mortgage rates have continued to climb after the Bank of England increased interest rates by half a point to 5% in June in an attempt to curb inflation.
Zoopla said higher rates would result in a 10-20% hit to buying power – the amount of money a buyer can afford to borrow to purchase a property – compared with when they were at 4%.
Richard Donnell, an executive director at Zoopla, said: “Demand for homes remains but those households looking to move home in 2023 need to be very realistic on pricing and get the view of agents on where to pitch their asking price to secure a sale.”
Buyers can attempt to offset the impact of higher mortgage rates and monthly repayments by either increasing their deposit or agreeing to longer mortgage terms. However, those are not options for all would-be buyers, and the further mortgage rates rise above 5%, the more buyers are squeezed out of the market.
This trend has been borne out in the data so far, with 14% fewer buyers in the market over the last four weeks compared with a year ago, Zoopla’s research showed.
Meanwhile, annual house price growth slowed to 1.2% in June and Zoopla predicted a return to “modest” quarterly house price falls in the second half of 2023.
Average UK house prices are on track to fall by up to 5% by the end of the year, although the drop depends partly on mortgage rates and inflation over the coming months.
A sudden increase in the number of homes for sale would also probably weigh on house price growth, and there are signs that supply is starting to grow at a higher rate. There were 18% more homes listed for sale in the past four weeks compared with the five-year average.
An uptick in supply would boost choice for buyers and give them more room to negotiate, driving larger house price falls.
HousingWire Annual is strategically placed in October to bring the greatest minds in housing together. At HW Annual, they will be mapping out their playbooks for the future. The event serves as a starting line for conquering next year. With less than 100 days left until these leaders meet in Austin, Texas at the Hyatt Lost Pines, sign up today to not only optimize your time at the event, but also to take advantage of some of the lowest rates available. Click the button below to register for the can’t-miss housing event of the season.
At this year’s HW Annual, attendees can catch Sandra Thompson, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Baron Silverstein, president at Newrez, Amory Wooden, chief marketing officer at Anywhere Brands, Frank Martell, President and CEO at loanDepot, Jay Promisco, chief production officer of Sierra Pacific Mortgage, Sarah Gonzalez, president and chief operating officer at Panorama Mortgage Group, Tyler Hodgson, executive vice president of growth at UMortgage and Cindy Keith, chief strategy officer at NFM Lending all on stage for three days of non-stop housing industry knowledge.
Future-proof your business with this year’s powerful HW Annual agenda. From listening to executives at the biggest companies in real estate and mortgage to dedicated panels on growing women in leadership and how to build competitive marketing strategies, you can find inspiration on stage in Austin, Texas.
Be sure to secure your room at the Hyatt Lost Pines by September 11 to stay at a discounted rate. Any rooms reserved after this date will pay full price for their accommodations. The Hyatt Lost Pines sits on hundreds of acres of beautiful Texas hill country. The resort includes several bars and restaurants, golf courses and pools. When you aren’t attending sessions, there are several opportunities to connect and relax on the property.
Plus, when the sessions are over for the day, the fun at HW Annual keeps going. Stay on property at the Hyatt Lost Pines to join us for cocktail receptions and networking events.
Add sessions like, “More Data, Less Vibes,” and “Strategy and Operation Tactics From the Top,” to your schedule. Catch inspirational leaders on stage, discussing the business tactics you need to win the current market.
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HW Annual is HousingWire’s capstone mortgage event, connecting leading professionals from the housing economy seeking to grow, innovate and win market share. This is where strategies are formed, deals are inked and lifelong relationships are solidified. Remember, HW+ members receive special perks like 50% off your admission to HW Annual, so go here to become a member. Haven’t received a discount code yet? Reach out to us at [email protected] Join us in Austin, Texas October 10-12 for community, content and commerce.