snowball

On November 9th, 2022, the average lender was quoting 30yr fixed rates well over 7%.  On day later, that figure dropped to 6.625%.  It was one of the best individual days for rates on record and it was driven by an economic report that showed an unexpectedly large drop in inflation. Inflation and several other key sectors of the economy had pushed the Federal Reserve to hike rates at the fastest pace in decades.  When it looked like the data might provide some relief, rates quickly moderated. Strangely (or so it seemed at the time), the Fed was highly reluctant to read too much into several months of generally more palatable data.  They said it was too soon to draw any conclusions other than “it’s a start.”  With that, markets hesitated to push longer term rates any lower until the data made an even stronger case of that. Unfortunately, the data since then has made a case for rates to turn around and head right back up toward previous highs.  February has been particularly brutal in that regard and today was just the latest example.  In fact, today’s reports aren’t typically regarded as top tier motivations for rate movement, but the market is so defensive to begin with that it doesn’t take much of a bump to create a snowball of momentum. The average 30yr fixed quote for a top tier scenario was around 6.75% on Friday and was up to 6.87% by Tuesday afternoon.  More than a few lenders are already back to 7%.