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Intercontinental Exchange’s mortgage technology business, which grew significantly in 2023 with the September acquisition of Black Knight, posted an operating loss of $276 million for the full year and $74 million for the fourth quarter.
That compares with a third quarter operating loss of $157 million and fourth quarter 2022 operating loss of $6 million. For all of 2022, the mortgage business had an operating profit of $57 million. Lower transaction volumes contributed to GAAP losses for the business.
The parent company provided pro forma operating results for ICE Mortgage Technology, which treats Black Knight as if Intercontinental Exchange owned it since 2021.
For the fourth quarter, pro forma operating income was $193 million, an improvement versus the third quarter operating income of $172 million and fourth quarter 2022 of $180 million.
But for the full year it fell to $724 million from $868 million in 2022.
The acquisition of Black Knight — which brought together the largest mortgage servicing platform, MSP, with Encompass, the most used loan origination system — closed at the start of September following a legal battle with the Federal Trade Commission. The deal required Black Knight to sell Empower and related assets to Constellation Software and that business was rebranded to Dark Matter. In a separate deal required for regulatory approval, Constellation purchased Optimal Blue as a stand-alone business.
Intercontinental Exchange’s mortgage business added 37 new Encompass clients in the fourth quarter and four new MSP customers. That contributed “to a record for new sales on Encompass and the highest in the last five years for MSP and Encompass combined,” Ben Jackson, president of Intercontinental Exchange and chairman of ICE Mortgage Technology, said during the company’s earnings call.
Among those signing on to Encompass were Raymond James Bank and Carrington Mortgage.
Meanwhile MSP added Capital Mortgage Solutions and CapEd Credit Union (an existing
Encompass customer), to start the fourth quarter, Jackson disclosed.
This year, “a near-term opportunity to drive greater transparency and efficiency includes integrating Black Knight datasets, such as our closing fee data, tax, flood and valuation models into our Encompass and MSP systems,” he continued.
“Another near-term example is integrating our data and document automation platform into MSP, building a digital bridge from origination straight through to servicing, reducing cost, time and errors to onboard loans to the MSP system,” Jackson added.
Fourth-quarter mortgage technology revenue doubled to $502 million from $249 billion, benefiting from the ownership of Black Knight for the entire period.
The servicing business ICE Mortgage Technology acquired from Black Knight provided $219 million of revenue. Another $70 million of revenue came from data and analytics in the fourth quarter, $56 million more than the previous year, also likely due to the addition of Black Knight to ICE’s existing business.
Origination technology revenue slipped to $170 million from $181 million, while closing solutions were basically flat at $43 million versus $44 million one year prior.
Recurring revenue from all sources for ICE Mortgage Technology grew to $397 million from $164 million in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Full year revenue did not increase as much, rising to $1.32 billion from $1.13 billion in 2022.
“While, of course, those recurring revenues are important, a lot of these products are also going to have a transaction component,” Warren Gardiner, chief financial officer, said, noting that last year was the worst for origination volume since at least 1991.
“But we’ve continued to add new customers, the current customer base has continued to add additional products, and we’ve expanded that network. So that when those transactions do normalize, we’re going to be really benefiting from that, not only on the recurring side, but I think on the transaction side as well,” he said.
For this year, consistent with the near-term outlook provided during a call following the Black Knight deal closing, revenue growth for the mortgage technology segment will be in the low to mid-single-digit range on a pro forma basis.
“The low end of our range assumes only a modest improvement in application and origination volumes, while the high end underwrites a more substantial improvement in the double-digit growth range,” Gardiner said.
Source: nationalmortgagenews.com
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Welcome to NerdWallet’s Smart Money podcast, where we answer your real-world money questions. In this episode:
Master self-employment taxes and avoid common tax mistakes with expert strategies for managing your finances year-round.
How do self-employed taxes work? What are some common tax mistakes self-employed people make? And can you really write off payments on a luxury vehicle if you use it for work purposes? Hosts Sean Pyles and Elizabeth Ayoola discuss the intricacies of self-employment taxes and strategies for financial success and IRS compliance to help you understand how to navigate tax season as an independent worker.
CPA and financial strategist Krystal Todd joins them to delve further into the details of self-employment taxes, with tips and tricks on budgeting for personal and professional life, the importance of making quarterly tax payments, and whether to DIY taxes or hire a professional. They also discuss strategies like depreciating assets, the benefits of hiring family members, and navigating the complexities of tax deductions.
Plus: financial strategies for handling unexpected income and managing self-employment taxes, the importance of setting aside funds for unexpected expenses, and the advantages of timing revenue recognition and prepaying expenses for tax benefits.
Check out this episode on your favorite podcast platform, including:
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Episode transcript
This transcript was generated from podcast audio by an AI tool.
Sean Pyles:
As Ben Franklin himself said, in this world, nothing is certain except death and taxes. Taxes, as we all know, can be wildly confusing, and that goes double when an employer isn’t there to help.
Krystal Todd:
We need quarterly payments just of you estimating how much you think you’ll be paying in taxes, and then at the end of the year when you actually file your taxes, they’ll make adjustments based on whatever credits and deductions you’re eligible for, what you’ve already paid, and then you’ll see what you net.
Sean Pyles:
Welcome to NerdWallet’s Smart Money Podcast. I’m Sean Pyles.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
And I’m Elizabeth Ayoola.
Sean Pyles:
Today we bring you episode two of our nerdy deep dive into self-employment. In our last episode, we talked about the importance of budgeting when you’re working for yourself. Obviously here at Smart Money we think it’s a good idea for everyone to budget, but especially if you’re self-employed, you’re going to need to budget for both your personal life and your professional life.
So in this episode, we’re going to answer the most important tax questions self-employed people have, like how do self-employed taxes even work? Is it better to DIY your taxes or hire a pro? And can you really write off payments on a luxury vehicle if you use it for work purposes? Welcome to tax season.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
Womp womp. My favorite part of tax season is when it’s over. Thankfully, I’m getting better at taxes every year and I’m also learning to outsource. Shout out to my tax person. Anyways, yes, it’s February and it’s tax time for all of us. And if you’re a gig worker, freelancer, contractor, or other solo entrepreneur, you need to make sure that you’re doing all the heavy lifting an employer would usually do for you. And you have to do that to avoid mistakes and IRS penalties. Hopefully those who aren’t new to self-employment have withheld enough quarterly taxes throughout the year so they’re not hit with an IRS penalty. New listeners who are about to dip their toes into self-employment are about to learn about how self-employed taxes work.
Sean Pyles:
Yeah, that is no bueno. I know people who, when they started freelancing, had no idea that they were supposed to be paying taxes all year long quarterly instead of saving up for a big payment at the end of the year. The IRS does not look kindly on that, even if it ends up that you overpaid. And by people here, I am absolutely referring to myself because I once found myself in a world of tax hurt back when I was a contractor, and that is a lesson I shall not soon forget.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
It’s good to know I’m not alone, Sean, because I’ve been there too and it wasn’t fine.
Sean Pyles:
Elizabeth Ayoola:
It hurts. It’s a heartbreak.
Sean Pyles:
All right, well, we want to hear what you think too, listeners. To share your ideas and questions around self-employment with us, leave us a voicemail or text the Nerd Hotline at 901-730-6373. That’s 901-730-NERD. Or email a voice memo to [email protected].
So Elizabeth, who are we hearing from today?
Elizabeth Ayoola:
Today we’re going to be chatting with Krystal Todd. She happens to be a certified public accountant, a financial strategist, a money mentor and an entrepreneur. Her resume puts her in a good position to give us the juicy details we need on self-employed taxes.
Sean Pyles:
That’s coming up in a moment. Stay with us.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
Hi Krystal. Thank you for coming onto the podcast.
Krystal Todd:
Yes, thank you so much for having me. Really excited to talk taxes. This is my bread and butter. I love talking about anything money, really.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
No, I’m with you. I’m not going to lie, I do not love taxes, but I do love to understand taxes because I don’t want to pay the IRS more than I have to pay them.
Krystal Todd:
Oh, no. That’s why I’m here.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
Another tax year is upon us, and I think this information is going to be super helpful. So with that said, I’m going to jump straight into the first question I have for you, which is how do self-employed taxes work? And I know this is a big question, but I know I learned the hard way about self-employed taxes and I learned that they’re higher than what you pay when you’re working a traditional job with an employer.
So I want you to tell us why self-employed taxes are higher, especially when the government seems to provide so many incentives for small business owners.
Krystal Todd:
So it’s a double whammy because not only is it higher because we’re paying both sides of the employer tax, but we also have to pay it ourselves. So if you’re coming from a W-2 world into self-employment world, normally in W-2 world, it’s all handled for you. The biggest difference is that you’re having to have full control over paying your taxes, paying quarterly, whereas a W-2, you’re paying every paycheck. It doesn’t feel like that, but that’s what’s going on. And then the self-employment tax. So typically with your W-2 employee, you’ll pay half that piece and then your employer pays half of it, but because you’re self-employed, you are the employee and the employer, so you’re paying 15% in taxes.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
That 15%, I remember the first time I saw it and whipped out my calculator and I was like, “Wait, what? This was a chunk of money.” So I was a little unpleasantly shocked by that number.
Krystal Todd:
Yeah, there is a way to get around it.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
Tell me, tell me.
Krystal Todd:
If you’re just starting out, maybe it wouldn’t be most beneficial. It does depend, and of course you have to always throw a disclaimer out there. Everyone’s situation is different. I’m a CPA, but not your personal CPA, so take everything I’m saying as little seeds of wisdom to go research.
When you’re first starting out, maybe you don’t have your EIN, which is just basically your social security for your business, employee identification number. So it’s like your social security number but for your business, because businesses are their own entity. But when you’re first starting out, maybe you’re not doing all of that. So if you’re in the sole proprietor category, which means you’re just working for yourself, you hired yourself, maybe the next level up is LLC, limited liability company. So you’ve gone ahead and filed for that LLC so you have some protection, but you’re still going to be paying a lot of taxes.
It’s not until you get into the S Corp. And of course there’s a couple of qualifications there, but once you get into S Corp, you can actually pay yourself as a W-2 employee in your business. And then that’s how you circumvent that self-employed tax because even though it’s your business, you’re an employee of the business so it looks like a W-2. And the benefit of that too is especially if you’re self-employed, and I know some people have felt me on this, if you’re trying to get a loan for a car, once they see you’re self-employed, guns are blazing, right? They’re ready to ask you all types of questions. You have to provide so much information. As an S Corp, if you’re paying yourself, you’re going to receive a W-2 from your business so they don’t have to know it’s your business. They just see W-2 and no questions asked. There are some benefits to having an S Corp for sure.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
By the way, for everyone listening, we’re going to go a lot deeper into the different business structures in a subsequent episode, so don’t worry. We’re going to touch on that some more.
So now back to taxes. I know estimated taxes are something that I now do. Didn’t do before, but I remember when I was first researching self-employment taxes, that came up a lot. But I thought, “Hey, I can just pay it in one lump sum,” and I didn’t really dig deeper to read all of the fine details. Can you explain to us what estimated taxes are and how exactly it worked?
Krystal Todd:
Of course. So as I mentioned previously, as a W-2 employee, you’re paying taxes every single pay period. So you don’t necessarily have to worry about that, but as a self-employed individual, you’re not paying any taxes. So what the government has said is, “You’re not off the hook.” You’re not going to pay just one time at the end of the year. We need quarterly payments just of you estimating how much you think you’ll be paying in taxes, and then at the end of the year when you actually file your taxes, they’ll make adjustments based on whatever credits and deductions you’re eligible for, what you’ve already paid, and then you’ll see what you net.
So it’s crucial to pay quarterly taxes, and you can use things out there that help you track your expenses and your income and can even help you calculate that too, so you don’t have to necessarily do it all on your own.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
Absolutely. So tell us, when are the self-employed taxes due and what happens if you don’t pay them?
Krystal Todd:
Yes, they’re quarterly. If you don’t pay them quarterly or they realize that you haven’t paid enough, you will get fined. You don’t have to end up in jail if it was a legitimate accident, so you’ll be fine, but you will get penalized and it can be a little costly. So definitely make sure that you are just getting that done ahead of time. It’s a fresh new year, so new opportunities to make sure we’re staying on target.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
Yes. And for those who maybe are listening and unfortunately missed out on paying quarterly taxes and maybe in April are going to end up being hit with a bill, are there any options in terms of how they can pay it if they don’t have that lump sum cash?
Krystal Todd:
It depends on your situation. Sometimes the IRS will say, “No, you need to make this payment,” and sometimes they’ll work with you depending on the amount. So it does depend on your circumstances.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
What was this I heard about that you can sometimes do a payment plan with the IRS. So is this true?
Krystal Todd:
Yeah, no, it’s true. It’s true. I think it just depends on, like I said, your circumstances. Maybe there’s situations where if you had issues before, they’re a little bit more strict on you, but you can make payments.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
So now we want to get into the mistakes so other people can learn from those mistakes. So what are some common mistakes that you see clients make when it comes to paying their self-employed taxes? So for me, for example, I just wasn’t good at bookkeeping initially. I had my money in too many different accounts, so it was overwhelming when tax season came around to see what my deductions were and just basically my income. So as a CPA, tell us maybe two or three common mistakes you see people make.
Krystal Todd:
The common mistake by far is not making sure that they’re taking all the deductions and credits that they’re actually eligible for. So ultimately, a lot of people will think about taxes as a January through April situation, but it’s a year-round thing. Tax planning is almost more important than actually tax preparation. You want to think about the whole year and ways you can save money, different things you could probably invest in to bring your taxes down. So missing out on tax planning and then trying to just rush everything towards the end of the year is by far the biggest mistake. I’ll see people scrambling for receipts, looking back, and a lot of times if you’re just starting out, typically maybe they won’t have a separate business account as well.
Depreciation is the biggest one that I think people miss out on, not only for things like Airbnb in your home, but also your car. If you’re doing Uber or Lyft, you can get credit for the wear and tear on your car. If you have a computer or any devices that you have, those things are also depreciable or you can actually fully deduct them in certain cases. I definitely think that you should be empowered and doing it yourself, but if your taxes are getting complicated, you’d want to make sure that you’re leaning on a tax professional who will catch those expenses because a lot of people are paying too much.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
Thanks for sharing all of those incredible ways that people can reduce their taxes. Can you tell me about some other deductions or ways that people can reduce their self-employed taxes?
Krystal Todd:
Yeah, so a really neat one is making sure you hire your family in any capacity that you can. Now, of course, there’s some caveats here. You have to make sure you’re paying them a reasonable wage. So if they’re just an administrator, you can’t pay them multiple six figures. It has to be reasonable, but to the extent that it’s reasonable, you can actually hire them on. And I especially love this with kids.
So as an example of my own life, I hire my daughter and she’ll help me with my videos, she’ll help me with setup. She helps me with product development, and she’s been featured in a few of my videos online. So I will pay her. She’s a 1099 worker, so it’s not a W-2, so it’s simple. I just have to give her a check, and what I love about that is that I get to reduce my taxes, and this is more like W-2, but either way, we all get a standard deduction.
If I pay my child up to the standard deduction amount, which was just a little over $13,000 for 2023. If I pay her $13,000, I get to reduce my taxable income by that same $13,000. She pays no taxes on it because of the standard deduction, which basically is the IRS giving you some credits for having a kid or just whatever else is happening in life. They say, “Here’s just one flat rate. You just take that.” So she doesn’t pay taxes on that, and then I can put it into a custodial IRA for her and it’ll grow tax-free because it’s Roth. You’re saving money, they’re not paying any taxes, I mean, that’s a really good tax loophole there.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
For sure, for sure. And speaking of which, since we’re on the topic of deductions, I know sometimes people go a little over the top with these deductions, forgetting that the IRS does audit people. I know recently I’ve seen something floating around on social media about being able to buy a Mercedes Benz, also known as G-Wagon, and write it off using your taxes. And the rules for this are really complicated, so make sure to work with the CPA if you’re thinking about doing it. So is this true? And if it is, what is the catch?
Krystal Todd:
There are some caveats. It must be used in business. You can’t just buy a G-Wagon, you never drive in it. If you’re a realtor, for example, that might make sense. You have an image. If you’re a realtor, you’re selling million-dollar homes, you want to look the part. That might make sense. But if you’re a content creator working at home, you never go in the car to do anything, you cannot do that. In the eyes of the IRS that is illegal, so you have to make sure that it’s being used for business use. It doesn’t have to be exclusively, but if it is half business, half personal, you’ll have to adjust your taxes to account for that.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
So sorry to get into the nitty-gritty, but when you say business use, someone might say, “Oh, I have a meeting, I don’t know, once a month, and I’m driving it to my meeting.” A content creator. Does the IRS get into the details of how frequently you’re using the car?
Krystal Todd:
Yes, and the location. So if you’re driving from your home to a meeting, that doesn’t count. It’s only if you’re going from, let’s say, your primary job to your second job. Then that could actually be considered a deductible expense. So yeah, they’re very particular about what you’re using it for, where you’re driving from, and if you get audited, you better be prepared.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
So can you tell us, on that note, some major red flags or even myths that you hear of when it comes to tax deductions?
Krystal Todd:
Yes. I think that people think they could just deduct anything because it’s eligible. The government makes you go through hoops, especially after the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act where the standard deduction was doubled. They’re really trying hard to make you just take the standard deduction and just take that and go.
If you’re saying, “No, I’ve had more than $13,000 worth of expenses,” you might have. That doesn’t mean they’re all going to be eligible. So for example, for health costs that you’ve spent, maybe you spent $10,000 in health expenses for this year, but the government does not give you dollar for dollar, and if you take that, it has to be itemized. So you might do all this work trying to itemize your deductions and you were better off taking the standard deduction because they make you go through a lot of different hoops. There’s percentages, there’s phase-outs if you’re making a certain amount of money. So it’s super, super nuanced, and just circling back to what we talked about earlier as far as DIY goes, if you’re in that situation, unless you’re going to really put the effort into research, you probably are better off just getting someone who already has done this before and they’re comfortable with it because of all those different nuanced requirements that they have.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
So in the spirit of… Well, I don’t want to say in the spirit of getting audited because I don’t think anyone wants to get audited, but just in case, give us some bookkeeping tips. I’m still refining my bookkeeping because it’s just not my strong area, but what are some bookkeeping tips so that if the IRS comes knocking, people are ready?
Krystal Todd:
I strongly suggest getting software. If you have a software, you’re able to attach receipts directly to it. They’ll organize it for you. If you’re not someone who’s too familiar with income statements and cash flows and all of that, they prepare those documents for you. That by far has dramatically changed my business. And also having separate accounts. You can’t even imagine how many people will dig through their personal account looking for business expenses. Even if you’re just starting out, from the decision you’ve made to take this business seriously, please get your EIN so you can open up your business bank account, and that way everything is just flowing through one account. Lean on these different tools that will organize it for you and just be sure to keep receipts.
I would say you should be at least monthly. All these billion-dollar corporations, I mean, they’re doing things very frequently, but every single month we are balancing the books, we are going over our expenses and then we’re tax planning. So many people wait until the end of the year and then it just becomes a hassle. So to the extent that you can, get it done monthly. That is the best advice I have so you’re not stressing yourself out during these times.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
We’re in a very tech-savvy age, so how are digital receipts? So every time maybe you make a purchase or whatever, just keeping a digital file of your stuff.
Krystal Todd:
Yes, absolutely. And let’s say maybe you’re not ready for the software. That’s what I was doing when I first started out and I wasn’t too sure. Just a simple folder in your computer would work. Document everything in the moment as it happens, that way nothing is slipping through the cracks and you should be in good shape.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
So the last question I have, because in this series we’re trying to cover people who also have how they can manage your finances when they have inconsistent income. So for someone who has inconsistent income throughout the year, maybe they don’t make as much during the beginning of the year, but let’s say halfway through the year they land a huge contract.
How do they budget then for self-employed taxes or estimated taxes, rather? Because I know that’s based on how much you think you’re going to make, but you don’t always know. So maybe you’ve been underpaying for the first half of the year and then the end of the year comes. How do you manage that?
Krystal Todd:
I always say be as conservative as possible. It’s kind of like a dual opinion I have here because on one end, you don’t want to give the government an interest-free loan. That’s essentially what you’re doing when you get a tax refund. But on the other end, you also don’t want to deal with owing money, maybe being penalized and then having to pay that next year. So to the extent that you can, I would say be as conservative as possible when it comes to paying your taxes. Again, there’s different software that’ll help you establish what you should be paying. When you get that windfall, you weren’t really expecting it, right? So I like to live off of my most conservative amount of money.
So let’s say maybe it’s $10,000 a month. If I made $20,000 a month, I will ignore that $10,000 and put it to the side just because you’ll have that extra cushion to keep you protected in the event that you have a windfall you don’t expect. That happened to me last year, actually. I had quite the windfall and I wasn’t expecting it, but I had practiced what I preach and I had some money to the side, so it was okay. So whenever you get those large sums of money, pretend like you didn’t. Just live conservatively and then once a year is done, once you calculate your taxes and you pay it, then you can enjoy the rest. So it’s delayed gratification.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
Oh, I like that as a way of looking at it. And one day when I was complaining about my taxes, I remember someone saying, “The brighter side of that is that you made more money.” So we welcome a windfall, we just have to prepare for those windfalls.
Krystal Todd:
This is a little bit more technical, but something that I love because this again happened to me last year. Let’s say seasonality is something that your company is affected by. Maybe you get a big windfall of purchases or something at the end of the year. In certain circumstances, it might be best to ask them to pay you next year, right?
If you are a cash-basis type of accounting, you won’t get taxed unless you actually receive the money. So maybe you did make that revenue, but if you can have it pushed off to the next year because you didn’t expect that windfall and you don’t want to necessarily deal with the influx of the money you have to pay for those taxes, maybe you can have your customers pay you January 1st or January 2nd. That way you’re not going to be affected by that surprise, and that’s 100% legal. You can delay that or you can bring forward some expenses too.
This only works if, again, you are a cash basis, but if you want to pay something off for the whole year, you’ll be able to deduct that even if the whole year hasn’t actually happened yet. So there’s different ways towards the end of the year to try to get some last minute things in just to further insulate yourself.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
Love that. Those are some really, really good tips and a reminder of why it’s good to talk to CPAs. Do you have any final words of wisdom or anything that people might not be thinking about relating to self-employed taxes that you want to share?
Krystal Todd:
Yes. You are the driver. A lot of times people will shy away from it because it is intimidating, but in the age of information that we’re in right now, there is an influx of free information online. This is an example of one of them. Don’t be paralyzed by fear. Really lean into it because the difference between small business, and I really don’t use that word lightly because no matter if you’re small or big, you have to do the same exact stuff. So why even identify with your revenue or the size of your company? But a business is a business, and these larger companies become larger because they are hands-on and they’re very proactive with how they’re managing their money.
So I suggest that you do so too and do not be afraid of delegation. I, in other areas of life, have not delegated, and that is what comes back to haunt you. So you don’t have to do it all on your own. There are free resources, there are paid resources. Definitely make sure you’re just taking advantage of what you can take advantage of and you’re planning so that you can not be surprised with tax bills at the end of the year.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
Yes, absolutely. Echoing what Krystal said, you do not have to do it alone, and that is something that has made taxes a lot less daunting for me. Thank you, thank you, thank you, Krystal. This was so informative. I have learned so many new things that I’m going to apply when it comes time to do my self-employed taxes, so thank you. Thank you for coming.
Krystal Todd:
You’re so welcome. Thank you for having me, and good luck everybody in this tax season.
Sean Pyles:
Elizabeth, I never thought I’d say this, but that was actually a super interesting conversation about taxes. I am someone who was a planner in all aspects of my life, and like Krystal said, planning ahead with your taxes is so key whether you’re finding deductions, hiring your family, or making quarterly tax payments, but also there is a big difference between planning and scheming. I’m so glad that you guys talked about that viral G-Wagon tax hack because I have seen that so many times on TikTok. I have been really worried about people getting themselves into a world of trouble with their taxes.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
I’m telling you, on the journey of self-employment, I have realized that there are some things that are not too good to be true, but other things are too good to be true, and I think that’s one of them.
So while taxes can be a snooze fest, I think learning about ways to save and avoid penalties will always grab my attention. I love all the tax saving strategies that Krystal shared, and also the deduction red flags to look out for. I mean, for me, this episode was also a reminder about how important it is to talk to a tax professional who has extensive knowledge, and that’s even if you’re a DIY type person.
I feel more confident about filing my self-employed taxes now because of all the information we just got. But Sean, before we go, I do want to mention one development that we didn’t address with Krystal.
Sean Pyles:
What is that?
Elizabeth Ayoola:
Well, starting this year, there’s a new law called the Corporate Transparency Act. And what that says is that anyone with an official business designation, especially a one or two-person LLC, is going to want to be aware of.
This is an effort to stem money laundering and tax evasion in the small business category, and basically you have to file some extra paperwork with the Treasury Department called a Beneficial Ownership Information Report. If you don’t do that, you could be fined $500 and possibly get up to two years jail time, and don’t nobody want two years jail time.
Sean Pyles:
Elizabeth Ayoola:
Nobody. So definitely talk to your tax accountant and or your business attorney about that.
Sean Pyles:
Yourself included, Elizabeth. I do not want you to go to jail, so please get this done.
Well, thanks for that information. Elizabeth, please tell us what’s coming up in episode three of this series.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
Sean, we are all about getting to retirement here on Smart Money, but saving for it can often be an extra challenge when you are self-employed. We’re going to walk listeners through their options and how to make sure you’re planning for the future, even while you’re going into business for yourself.
Ayesha Selden:
If I can get to 10%, a double-digit percentage of my pay, of my gross pay, my pre-tax pay, I’m in the right ballpark. If you are self-employed, then the onus is on you, of course, to put in everything into your own personal retirement plan.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
For now, that’s all we have for this episode. Do you have a money question of your own? If you do, turn to the Nerds and call or text us your questions at 901-730-6373. That’s 901-730-NERD. You can also email us at [email protected]. You can also visit nerdwallet.com/podcast for more information on this particular episode. And remember to follow, rate, and review us wherever you’re getting this podcast.
Sean Pyles:
This episode was produced by Tess Vigeland. I helped with editing, Courtney Neidel helped with fact checking, Sara Brink mixed our audio, and a big thank you to NerdWallet’s editors for all their help.
Elizabeth Ayoola:
And here’s our brief disclaimer. We are not financial or investment advisors. This nerdy info is provided for general educational and entertainment purposes, and it may not apply to your specific circumstances.
Sean Pyles:
And with that said, until next time, turn to the Nerds.
Source: nerdwallet.com
Apache is functioning normally
The Adirondack Mountains are a gorgeous outdoor wonderland, attracting tourists from all over the world. The park covers 20% of New York state (3x larger than Yellowstone!). Perhaps the “ADK’s” most extraordinary natural resources are the 46 “High Peaks” in the park’s northeast corner.
Friend-of-the-blog/pod Tyler led me on one of my first High Peak adventures (hey Tyler, thanks for reading!). We conquered the Dix Range, summiting four peaks in one day, trudging ~15 miles through the mountainous woods over 11 hours
Hiking is Hard Work
It was a draining day. I drank more water than expected and chafed in…uncomfortable…ways. I ate dinner for two that night and slept like a baby and learned many applicable lessons for my next hike.
For example, during our rest breaks at the summits, I observed the other hikers around us. What were they doing that I wasn’t? Some were fit and lean, others a bit overweight. Some had expensive gear, others had gym shorts and sneakers. The pros drank from Nalgene bottles and ate rehydrated meals. The amateurs had Poland Spring bottles and Nutrigrain bars.
All shapes and sizes. There was a broad spectrum between the expertly prepared and the woefully inexperienced. Yet all of these hikers had reached the top. And hopefully they all got back to the bottom, too.
Are You Prepared?
More preparedness requires more research, more time, and more money. But it provides a higher probability of summiting the mountain(s), a more straightforward path, and the mental confidence of knowing you’re prepared.
Less preparedness is easier upfront. But is it easy in the long run? Likely not. “A stitch, in time, saves nine,” as Ben Franklin said. This idea rhymes with the concept of, “Hard choices, easy life. Easy choices, hard life.”
Where do you want to fall on the spectrum of preparedness? That’s totally your call. There is no correct answer in general, but only a correct answer for you.
You’ll hopefully reach “the summit” either way. But your preparedness provides flexibility in how easy or hard that journey will be.
Retirement Works the Same Way
In my experience running The Best Interest and working professionally in financial planning, retirement preparedness works the same way. I received a perfect example last week via email from a blog reader, Jon…
Hi Jesse, my wife and I are 56 and 58 years old, respectively, and on the verge of retirement, I hope. We have about $2M in Traditional accounts, $510K in Roth accounts, and $430K in taxable accounts. 95% of that money is invested in diversified stocks. We’ll both receive significant Social Security benefits (north of $3K/month each at age 67). We live within our means…last year our total outflow of money was just shy of $90,000. Do you think we’re ready to retire? Can we chat with you about retirement readiness?
Jon (and Eva)
Some quick math: Jon and Eva have $2.9M in assets to support an $90,000 annual lifestyle. They’re at less than a 3% annual withdrawal rate, and we haven’t even accounted for their Social Security income. They are more than set!
Do Jon and Eva need professional help? I don’t see how.
Could Jon and Eva benefit from professional help? I’m positive.
It’s like my adventure in the Dix Range. I conquered the mountains! I didn’t need to be more prepared. But I could have (and should have) done many things differently to make my day more manageable and eliminate the probability of failure.
Many of us don’t need intervention. But it would undoubtedly help.
Questions for Jon and Eva
I find it hard to imagine a scenario where Jon and Eva live a failed financial retirement, regardless of professional advice. They’re on course to “summit the mountain.” Still, many critical financial questions come to my mind:
- They’re retiring before 59.5 (the age of normal IRA distributions). What’s their plan for funding those intervening years?
- Fof 99%+ of people on the verge of retirement, a portfolio of 95% stocks is inappropriate. Red flag!
- In general, how do they plan on balancing withdrawals from their Roth accounts (no tax), their Traditional accounts (fully taxable as Income), and the taxable accounts (with capital gains)? Done poorly, they’ll “leak” money to taxes.
- Are they sure waiting until 67 is the optimal Social Security move for both of them? It usually isn’t.
- What’s their healthcare plan before Medicare?
- Do they have any significant financial goals beyond “live our normal lifestyle?” Are they prepared to fund those goals?
- And many more. There are lots of puzzle pieces to retirement and many ways to arrange them.
I’m sure Jon and Eva have answers. However, my experience with similar families is that their answers are rarely optimized. While it’s terrific that they’re better off than most, there’s still room for optimization – and therefore, room for dollars saved and dollars earned.
If they were hikers, they’d be in peak physical shape (peak?!) with plenty of water. I can’t see them failing to get up the mountain. But did they bring a map and compass, just in case? Are they aware those cotton underpants are going to get very uncomfortable? Or that the trailhead parking lot is “by reservation only?”
They’ll reach the summit regardless. But their day will be more annoying than it needed to be. Who wants that?!
Is Preparedness Worth It?
Just as I wrote earlier, I’m asking Jon and Eva,
“Where do you want to fall on the spectrum of preparedness? That’s totally your call. There is no right answer in general, but only a right answer for you.”
Based only on Jon’s short email, I have plenty of questions for them. They could use a sanity check (or more) for retirement preparedness.
But preparedness costs money, time, energy, etc. Do they want to incur those costs to get more prepared? Will they see enough benefit from those costs, or are they beyond the point of diminishing returns?
Perhaps they’re ready to hit the trail as is. They’ll reach their retirement goals regardless. But they might have more annoying financial moments than needed. Who wants that?!
Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed this article, join 7500+ subscribers who read my 2-minute weekly email, where I send you links to the smartest financial content I find online every week.
-Jesse
Want to learn more about The Best Interest’s back story? Read here.
Looking for a great personal finance book, podcast, or other recommendation? Check out my favorites.
Was this post worth sharing? Click the buttons below to share!
Source: bestinterest.blog
Apache is functioning normally
The Adirondack Mountains are a gorgeous outdoor wonderland, attracting tourists from all over the world. The park covers 20% of New York state (3x larger than Yellowstone!). Perhaps the “ADK’s” most extraordinary natural resources are the 46 “High Peaks” in the park’s northeast corner.
Friend-of-the-blog/pod Tyler led me on one of my first High Peak adventures (hey Tyler, thanks for reading!). We conquered the Dix Range, summiting four peaks in one day, trudging ~15 miles through the mountainous woods over 11 hours
Hiking is Hard Work
It was a draining day. I drank more water than expected and chafed in…uncomfortable…ways. I ate dinner for two that night and slept like a baby and learned many applicable lessons for my next hike.
For example, during our rest breaks at the summits, I observed the other hikers around us. What were they doing that I wasn’t? Some were fit and lean, others a bit overweight. Some had expensive gear, others had gym shorts and sneakers. The pros drank from Nalgene bottles and ate rehydrated meals. The amateurs had Poland Spring bottles and Nutrigrain bars.
All shapes and sizes. There was a broad spectrum between the expertly prepared and the woefully inexperienced. Yet all of these hikers had reached the top. And hopefully they all got back to the bottom, too.
Are You Prepared?
More preparedness requires more research, more time, and more money. But it provides a higher probability of summiting the mountain(s), a more straightforward path, and the mental confidence of knowing you’re prepared.
Less preparedness is easier upfront. But is it easy in the long run? Likely not. “A stitch, in time, saves nine,” as Ben Franklin said. This idea rhymes with the concept of, “Hard choices, easy life. Easy choices, hard life.”
Where do you want to fall on the spectrum of preparedness? That’s totally your call. There is no correct answer in general, but only a correct answer for you.
You’ll hopefully reach “the summit” either way. But your preparedness provides flexibility in how easy or hard that journey will be.
Retirement Works the Same Way
In my experience running The Best Interest and working professionally in financial planning, retirement preparedness works the same way. I received a perfect example last week via email from a blog reader, Jon…
Hi Jesse, my wife and I are 56 and 58 years old, respectively, and on the verge of retirement, I hope. We have about $2M in Traditional accounts, $510K in Roth accounts, and $430K in taxable accounts. 95% of that money is invested in diversified stocks. We’ll both receive significant Social Security benefits (north of $3K/month each at age 67). We live within our means…last year our total outflow of money was just shy of $90,000. Do you think we’re ready to retire? Can we chat with you about retirement readiness?
Jon (and Eva)
Some quick math: Jon and Eva have $2.9M in assets to support an $90,000 annual lifestyle. They’re at less than a 3% annual withdrawal rate, and we haven’t even accounted for their Social Security income. They are more than set!
Do Jon and Eva need professional help? I don’t see how.
Could Jon and Eva benefit from professional help? I’m positive.
It’s like my adventure in the Dix Range. I conquered the mountains! I didn’t need to be more prepared. But I could have (and should have) done many things differently to make my day more manageable and eliminate the probability of failure.
Many of us don’t need intervention. But it would undoubtedly help.
Questions for Jon and Eva
I find it hard to imagine a scenario where Jon and Eva live a failed financial retirement, regardless of professional advice. They’re on course to “summit the mountain.” Still, many critical financial questions come to my mind:
- They’re retiring before 59.5 (the age of normal IRA distributions). What’s their plan for funding those intervening years?
- Fof 99%+ of people on the verge of retirement, a portfolio of 95% stocks is inappropriate. Red flag!
- In general, how do they plan on balancing withdrawals from their Roth accounts (no tax), their Traditional accounts (fully taxable as Income), and the taxable accounts (with capital gains)? Done poorly, they’ll “leak” money to taxes.
- Are they sure waiting until 67 is the optimal Social Security move for both of them? It usually isn’t.
- What’s their healthcare plan before Medicare?
- Do they have any significant financial goals beyond “live our normal lifestyle?” Are they prepared to fund those goals?
- And many more. There are lots of puzzle pieces to retirement and many ways to arrange them.
I’m sure Jon and Eva have answers. However, my experience with similar families is that their answers are rarely optimized. While it’s terrific that they’re better off than most, there’s still room for optimization – and therefore, room for dollars saved and dollars earned.
If they were hikers, they’d be in peak physical shape (peak?!) with plenty of water. I can’t see them failing to get up the mountain. But did they bring a map and compass, just in case? Are they aware those cotton underpants are going to get very uncomfortable? Or that the trailhead parking lot is “by reservation only?”
They’ll reach the summit regardless. But their day will be more annoying than it needed to be. Who wants that?!
Is Preparedness Worth It?
Just as I wrote earlier, I’m asking Jon and Eva,
“Where do you want to fall on the spectrum of preparedness? That’s totally your call. There is no right answer in general, but only a right answer for you.”
Based only on Jon’s short email, I have plenty of questions for them. They could use a sanity check (or more) for retirement preparedness.
But preparedness costs money, time, energy, etc. Do they want to incur those costs to get more prepared? Will they see enough benefit from those costs, or are they beyond the point of diminishing returns?
Perhaps they’re ready to hit the trail as is. They’ll reach their retirement goals regardless. But they might have more annoying financial moments than needed. Who wants that?!
Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed this article, join 7500+ subscribers who read my 2-minute weekly email, where I send you links to the smartest financial content I find online every week.
-Jesse
Want to learn more about The Best Interest’s back story? Read here.
Looking for a great personal finance book, podcast, or other recommendation? Check out my favorites.
Was this post worth sharing? Click the buttons below to share!
Source: bestinterest.blog
Apache is functioning normally
The interest rate freeze proposal has just been unveiled by the Bush Administration, a plan which could help as many as 1.2 million borrowers stay in their homes.
“There is no perfect solution,” President Bush said Thursday as he announced the agreement reached among a slew of mortgage industry players. “The homeowners deserve our help. The steps I’ve outlined today are a sensible response to a serious challenge.”
Bush was quick to explain that the plan wasn’t a bailout, claiming the proposed interest rate freeze would only benefit responsible homeowners.
“We should not bail out lenders, real estate speculators or those made the reckless decision to buy a home they knew they could never afford,” Bush said after meeting with industry leaders at the White House. “But there are some responsible homeowners who could avoid foreclosure with some assistance.”
He also noted that thousands of borrowers have been sent letters about their options, and that aid would only come to those who asked for it, urging at-risk homeowners to call the new telephone hotline at 1-888-995-HOPE.
The president had originally given out the wrong phone number for the hotline, which was later corrected by White House staff.
Bush also played a bit of the blame game, saying the Democratic-controlled Congress “has not sent me a single bill to help homeowners.”
Hillary Clinton called Bush’s plan “too little, too late”, referring to the fact that it would exclude the 400,000 homeowners whose mortgage rates have or will reset in the final three months of 2007.
Fed Chief Ben Bernanke released a statement saying, “The streamlined process for refinancing and modifying sub-prime adjustable rate mortgages announced today is a welcome step in helping Americans protect their homes and communities from the consequences of unnecessary foreclosures.”
Meanwhile, the S&P said the mortgage freeze plan may lead to more downgrades on mortgage bonds because loan modifications will lead to reduced payments to investors.
Shares of the top U.S. mortgage lender, Countrywide Financial (CFC), rose $1.68, or 16.12%, to $12.10 on the news.
That said, here are the details regarding the “interest rate freeze proposal” unveiled today:
In order to qualify for an interest-rate freeze, you must have received your mortgage sometime between January 1, 2005 and July 31, 2007, and you need to be facing an interest rate reset sometime between January 1, 2008 and July 31, 2010.
If you fall within this range, you may be eligible to have your interest rate frozen for five years, though you won’t qualify if you are able to make payments at the higher adjustable rate, or if you can’t make payments at the original teaser rate.
The plan is focused on first-lien, 2/28 and 3/27 ARMs for borrowers who are no more than 30 days behind on their mortgage payment.
It only applies to owner-occupied properties, so investment property owners need not apply.
According to a source briefed on the plan, borrowers who have 3 percent or more home equity would also not be eligible for the freeze, and borrowers with credit scores below 660 will be first in line.
The plan identifies three classes of at-risk borrowers:
– Strong borrowers facing an interest-rate reset will be helped into FHA fixed-rate mortgages, and won’t be eligible for an interest rate freeze.
– Borrowers with credit scores below 660 that have not increased by 10 percent since the origination of the mortgage in question will be fast-tracked for a loan modification, though borrowers with higher scores may also qualify.
– And finally struggling borrowers who aren’t able to afford even a modified loan will end up facing foreclosure.
It looks like the proposal will only help a small group of homeowners, though others will receive assistance from individual mortgage lenders and through other government agencies like the FHA.
Source: thetruthaboutmortgage.com
Apache is functioning normally
In this issue
- While the economy continues to expand and added 2.7 million jobs in 2023, signs point to a normalization in the labor market as job growth is expected to moderate in 2024. MORE
- While mortgage rates have moved sideways since mid-December, housing continues to be impacted by higher mortgage rates with total home sales on track to be the lowest since 2012. MORE
- Facing higher borrowing costs, borrowers are paying more discount points to buy down their mortgage rate, but they may not be getting the benefit. MORE
Recent developments
U.S. economy: According to the latest estimate of U.S. economic growth for Q3 2023, the economy grew at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of 4.9%, slightly slower than the second estimate but still the fastest since Q4 2021— and among the fastest growth in the last 20 years. Consumption spending growth was revised down from a SAAR of 3.6% in the second estimate to 3.1% in the final estimate. This was mainly led by a decline in spending on services but remained the largest contributor to growth at 2.1 percentage points. After nine consecutive quarters of negative growth, residential investment growth came in much stronger than the initial estimates at a SAAR of 6.7%.
The labor market remained much stronger than expected in 2023 and defied expectations of a slowdown. The economy added 216,000 jobs in December, bringing the total jobs added in 2023 to 2.7 million.1 While total jobs added in 2023 was lower than the historical highs of 2021 and 2022, job growth was still remarkable given the high interest rate environment the economy faced. The unemployment rate remained unchanged in December at 3.7% compared to November 2023, but moved up 0.3 percentage points over the year.
While job growth remained significant over the year, some indications of a softer labor market are starting to creep in. The labor force participation rate as well as employment to population ratio decreased 0.3 percentage points over the month to 62.5% and 60.1% respectively. Downward revisions to October and November job growth meant the 3-month average job gain in the fourth quarter of 2023 was the lowest since the third quarter of 2019, if we exclude the 2020 recession. However, the torrid pace of job growth was unlikely to be sustained and employment growth is approaching levels consistent with a balanced labor market. Heading into 2024, we might see a moderation in job growth, which would be more consistent with long-run growth in the U.S. labor force. Job openings edged down slightly to 8.8 million in November 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The ratio of job openings to unemployed, a metric that the Federal Reserve has been tracking to gauge the strength of the labor market, declined from a high of around 1.8 in January 2023 to 1.4 in November.
Inflation continues to trend towards the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%. The preferred measure of inflation of the Federal Reserve, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) measure increased at a rate of 3.2% year over year, the smallest annual increase since May 2021.2 While inflation has been moderating as the labor market normalizes, a reacceleration of home prices along with still high average hourly earnings growth at 4.1% year over year, could mean that getting to the 2% target might take longer than expected.
U.S. housing market: The housing market felt the impact of higher rates in 2023 with total annual home sales on track to be the lowest since 2012. Total (existing and new) home sales reached 4.4 million units in November 2023, down 1.2% as compared to October 2023 and 6.2% below November 2022. Total home sales averaged around 4.8 million from January through November 2023. Existing home sales were at 3.8 million as of November 2023 and averaged 4.1 million through November 2023.3 The existing housing inventory grew 15.3% year to date in November but the level of inventory (1.1 million homes available for sale in November) remains extremely low by historical standards.4 The rate-lock effect, which was the main driver of the lack of existing inventory, continued to push buyers towards the new home market. The number of new homes available for sale increased 2.7% year-to-date and was up 2.5% from the previous month. Overall, the sales of new homes averaged 666,000 in 2023 as compared to 637,000 in 2022.5
Falling interest rates have spurred the confidence of both potential homebuyers as well as the homebuilders. The Housing Market Index, which had decreased since August increased in December 2023. While existing home sales increased in November, pending home sales for November were still weak and saw a 5.2% decrease from the previous year. The FHFA Purchase-Only Home Price Index indicated that as of October of 2023, home prices rose 6.1% year to date, and as more home buyers enter the market amidst the lack of inventory, the pressure on prices could increase further.
U.S. mortgage market: Mortgage rates were on an upward trajectory for most of 2023, reaching 23-year highs in October. However, since the last week of October, rates have been declining mainly on the expectation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve along with easing inflationary pressures. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, as measured by Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), fell almost one percentage point from the last week in October through mid-December. Despite the decline in recent weeks, mortgage rates are 13 basis points higher than they were at the beginning of the year. Mortgage activity also declined with purchase applications down almost 12% in 2023 and total applications down 7% even as refinance applications increased 15% over the year.6
Tighter financial conditions and higher overall interest rates are starting to impact mortgage delinquency rates. Total mortgage delinquency rates were up 0.25 percentage points from 3.37% in Q2 2023 to 3.62% in Q3 2023 according to the MBA’s National Delinquency Survey. The delinquency rate on conventional mortgages increased from 2.29% to 2.5% in Q3 2023 while the delinquency rate of VA loans was up from 3.7% to 3.76% over the same period. The largest increase was in the delinquency rate of FHA loans which increased 0.55 percentage points from 8.95% in Q2 to 9.5% in Q3. Interestingly, serious delinquency rates (90+ DQs) went down across the board between Q2 and Q3. Foreclosure starts increased from 0.13% in Q2 to 0.19% in Q3 2023 but remain low compared to its historical average.
Outlook
The U.S. economy exhibited tremendous resilience last year on strong consumer spending. We expect economic growth to slow this year as consumer spending starts to fade. Under our baseline scenario, with a slowing economy, the unemployment rate will see a modest uptick, and inflation will continue to moderate.
With inflation remaining above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%, we do not expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting the federal fund rates immediately. However, it will continue to pause on interest rate hikes. We expect rate cuts in the second half of the year if the job market cools off enough to keep inflation muted. Under this scenario, we expect mortgage rates to ease throughout the year while remaining in the 6% range.
Falling rates will breathe some life into the housing market with some recovery in home sales. However, home sales are expected to grow only modestly due to a lack of inventory in the market. The demand for housing, however, will remain high based on a large share of Millennial first-time homebuyers looking to buy homes, which will push home prices up. We forecast home prices to increase 2.8% in 2024 and 2.0% in 2025 nationally.
Under our baseline scenario, we expect increases in both purchase and refinance volumes this year and into 2025. On purchase originations, higher home sales and growth in home prices will drive the dollar volumes of purchase originations up. However, we do not expect purchase origination volumes to reach the levels seen in 2021 and 2022 as lack of inventory will limit home sales. The drop in mortgage rates will push refinance originations up, as buyers who obtained higher interest rates in 2023 will likely refinance into lower rates. However, rates remaining around the 6% range will not provide enough refinance incentives to millions of homeowners who currently have rates below 6%. And therefore, we expect refinance volume to grow only modestly this year. Overall, we forecast total origination volumes to improve this year and into the next.
January 2024 SPOTLIGHT:
Declining affordability led borrowers to pay more discount points to buy down rates, but our research suggests it may not be worth it
Mortgage rates, as measured by Freddie Mac’s PMMS®, increased significantly in 2023 compared to the record lows of the past few years. On October 26, 2023, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 7.79%, a 23-year high. Since then, mortgage rates have moderated, but remain high by recent historical standards. These higher mortgage rates led many borrowers to make the decision to pay points in order to lower the rate when purchasing a house or refinancing an existing mortgage. During the low interest rate environment, few borrowers opted to pay discount points when obtaining a mortgage, but as rates started creeping up in the early 2022, we saw more borrowers paying discount points to lower their rate.
Using Freddie Mac closing data, we examined how often borrowers pay discount points and how many points they pay. For this analysis, the points we are focusing on are for permanent interest rate reductions throughout the life of the loan.7 To that end, we looked at a borrower profile that roughly matches our PMMS® population: mortgage for a home purchase or refinance of a one-unit, single-family owner-occupied property with a fully amortizing 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. We further restricted our sample to borrowers with conforming loans, and with credit scores 740 or above and a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio between 75 and 80 (inclusive).
We found that the share of borrowers who paid discount points increased in 2023 (Exhibit 1). For example, about 58.8% of purchase mortgage borrowers paid discount points in 2023, compared to 31.3% and 53.6% of purchase borrowers in 2021 and 2022 respectively. The share paying discount points was higher for noncash- out and cash-out refinance borrowers, 59.9% and 82.4%, respectively. Also, conditional on paying points, refinance borrowers tended to pay much higher points: 0.99 points for purchase borrowers compared to 1.16 and 1.76 points for non-cash-out and cash-out refinance borrowers, respectively.
It is interesting to note, however, that the interest rate differential between borrowers who pay discount points and those who do not pay discount points is very small. Through November 2023, the average effective rate on purchase loans for borrowers who did not pay discount points was 6.69% versus 6.86% for those who did pay points. This result seems to suggest that paying discount points may not be worth it from the consumers’ point of view. Indeed, some academic research8 has shown that in many circumstances paying discount points can be a poor financial decision. However, while our tabulation shows that borrowers who do not pay points generally receive lower mortgage rates compared to similar borrowers who do pay points, we do not control completely for borrower observed and unobserved attributes. Therefore, we cannot say with certainty that for any particular borrower, the relationship between discount points paid and interest rate is negative.9
Exhibit 2 compares the quarterly average discount points paid by Freddie Mac borrowers (home purchase, owner occupied, one-unit properties). From 2018 through 2021, borrowers that matched the PMMS® profile, (borrowers with origination LTV between 75 and 80 and FICO score 740 or higher) paid about the same average amount of points compared to all purchase borrowers. Starting in 2022 and continuing through 2023, higher credit quality borrowers tended to pay fewer points compared to all borrowers. In 2023, borrowers that matched the PMMS® profile paid on average about 0.06 less points or about 10% less compared to all purchase borrowers.
Prime borrowers who pay discount points on average have higher incomes and are obtaining higher loan balances when purchasing a home compared to borrowers who do not pay points. For example, in 2023 the average loan amount for purchase loans with points paid at origination was $360,000, compared with an average loan amount of $370,000 for mortgages where the borrowers did not pay points. In 2023, the average annual income of a “no discount points” borrower was $148,000, higher than the $140,000 average annual income for borrowers who paid points.
Our analysis on the closing files data shows that there is a difference in borrower behavior across the U.S. when it comes to paying discount points and origination fees. For example, in 2023 over 70% of prime purchase borrowers in HI, NM, WV, OR, WA, and DE paid discount points when closing on their mortgage while less than 50% of borrowers paid discount points in VT, IA, MA, IL, NE, ND, and WI. Exhibit 3 below shows the breakdown by state in 2023.
Our analysis shows that mortgage borrowers in 2023 were more willing to pay discount points than in previous years, and that the likelihood of paying points was greater for lower credit quality borrowers compared to the high-quality mortgage borrowers captured in our PMMS® profile population. We also saw that borrowers in the Midwest were less likely to pay points compared to borrowers in the Pacific and Mountain West. If interest rates stabilize in 2024, it will be interesting to observe whether borrowers opt to pay fewer points, or if the recent uptick in paying discount points is a more permanent shift in the mortgage market.
-
Footnotes
1 Non-Farm Employment, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2 BEA
3 National Association of Realtors (NAR)
4 From January 1999 through December 2019 the average number of existing homes available for sale averaged 2.2 million, about double the number of homes available for sale in November 2023.
5 U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
6 Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA)
7 For an analysis of temporary buydowns see our previous Research Brief: https://www.freddiemac.com/research/insight/20230731-temporary-mortgage-rate-buydown-activity-spiked-in.
8 See for example: Agarwal, S., Ben-David, I. and Yao, V., 2017. Systematic mistakes in the mortgage market and lack of financial sophistication. Journal of Financial Economics, 123(1), pp. 42-58.
9 For a more detailed analysis see: Mota, N., Palim, M. and Woodward, S., 2022. Mortgages are still confusing… and it matters—How borrower attributes and mortgage shopping behavior impact costs. Fannie Mae Working Paper. https://www.fanniemae.com/media/45841/display
Prepared by the Economic & Housing Research group
Sam Khater, Chief Economist
Len Kiefer, Deputy Chief Economist
Ajita Atreya, Macro & Housing Economics Manager
Rama Yanamandra, Macro & Housing Economics Manager
Penka Trentcheva, Macro & Housing Economics Senior
Genaro Villa, Macro & Housing Economics Senior
Lalith Manukonda, Finance Analyst
www.freddiemac.com/research
Source: freddiemac.com
Apache is functioning normally
Philadelphia is a modern, glittering, cosmopolitan city on the east coast. Settled between massive New York and powerful Washington, D.C., Philly is a keystone of the Northeast Corridor as its state’s nickname suggests.
So as a representative major northeastern city, you would expect it as an expensive place to live. Well, not so fast. While Philadelphia stands as the nation’s sixth-biggest city by population, it’s just the 41st most expensive city in the U.S. among the top 270 largest. The cost of living in Philadelphia is pretty affordable for all you get. In fact, the city’s COL Index is a realistic 111.7, meaning it’s just 11.7 percent more expensive than the national average.
The cost of living in Philadelphia involves a number of expense factors. These include budget items such as housing, utilities, transportation, food and more.
The individual indexes range from nearly 20 percent over the national average for groceries to just 0.4 percent for health care. But regardless of category, including average rent in Philadelphia, the City of Brotherly Love is an affordable place to live.
Housing costs in Philadelphia
With about 30 percent of a household budget going towards housing, paying for where you live will be your single highest expense no matter where that is. But how is the affordability of the literal cost of living in Philadelphia? The answer is simple — not bad.
Despite its size as the sixth most populous city in America, housing in Philadelphia is 16.8 percent more expensive than average.
In fact, the cost of living in Philadelphia for housing is only the 46th most expensive in the nation. That makes it cheaper to live than such cities as Baltimore, Stockton, Flagstaff, Denver and Portland, Maine. Compare that to New York City. Manhattan is just 70 miles from Center City, but its Housing Index is a whopping 442.3.
The average rent in Philadelphia for a one-bedroom apartment is $2,142 a month. That’s just over $500 a month above the national average of about $1,600. The cost of that average Philly one-bedroom rose just 2.52 percent from the same period last year.
Philadelphia’s least and most expensive neighborhoods
Considering there are over 300,000 rental units in Philadelphia, the average one-bedroom figure varies widely depending on where in the city you wish to live. The top four least expensive neighborhoods in Philly sit in Near Northeast Philadelphia.
Melrose Park Garden, Pennypack Woods, East Oak Lane and Burholme all rent one-bedrooms for under $1,175 on average, with Melrose Park Garden the only district in the city under a grand a month. East Falls, a popular residential neighborhood for young professionals just south of Manayunk, is the fifth least expensive at $1,226.
On the flip side, the majority of the most expensive neighborhoods surround the city’s downtown. Washington Square West, Logan Square, Avenue of the Arts South and greater Center City itself all rent a lone bedroom for over $2,300 a month.
Washington Square West, home of the Gayborhood district, is the only region in town where rents top $3,000 monthly. Graduate Hospital, just across Broad Street, saw the highest year-to-year increase in the city at nearly 55 percent.
Home values in Philadelphia
If your life path has moved you from renting to homeownership, Philadelphia is an affordable place to buy as well. The average home — a new construction house with 2,400 square feet of living area for the purposes of this survey — is priced at $426,000.
While that is $115,500 above the nationwide average, Philly ranks an impressive 50th among cities with the most expensive new homes.
Mortgage rates, which by their nature fluctuate wildly, tend to hover around 3 percent.
Food costs in Philadelphia
Compared to other large cities, the price of food in Philadelphia is reasonable but not cheap. Philly’s Food Index is just under 20 percent above the national average. The city falls 16th among all cities, cheaper than some smaller locales like Seattle, Wilmington and suburban DC.
If you know anything about Philadelphians, they are big fans of party foods, backyard barbecues and sandwiches (particularly local faves hoagies, roast pork and cheesesteaks). And as incredible as the restaurant scene is in Philly, locals love to eat at home both in the dining room and on the patio. That means residents buy a lot of family and snack food.
Unfortunately, several of these common grocery items are pricey. For example, the city is among the top five most expensive for popular party items including potato chips, pork sausage and Coca-Cola, and a loaf of whole wheat bread ranks eleventh.
Not only is Philadelphia high nationally, but it’s unsurprisingly more expensive for food than other major cities in Pennsylvania.
For nearly every food item surveyed, Philadelphia is priciest compared to Pittsburgh, Allentown, Scranton and Wilkes-Barre. For example, frozen meal prices are over 30 percent higher than the average of all of the state’s population centers. A dozen eggs are nearly 30 percent higher as well and a head of lettuce is a 14.5 percent increase.
Looking for grocery bargains? They do exist. Shampoo is 5.6 percent cheaper than the state average. And both a bag of potatoes and can of peaches are 3 percent under, with the latter the cheapest in the state. While a bottle of table wine is steep at $12.11, ranked 14th and over $3 above the national average, beer is cheap.
In the town known for the “Citywide Special,” a six-pack runs 58 cents below the national average — the 64th cheapest city for beer in the U.S.
Dining out in Philadelphia
But not all food fun in Philly comes from the kitchen. Philadelphia is known as one of America’s top restaurant cities. No wonder, considering it’s home to the nation’s best pizza, best coffee shop, best chef and America’s best restaurant.
Philly folks love dining out. City households spend on average 45.7 percent of their yearly food budget on restaurants, delivery or take out. That’s 5.6 percent of the entire household budget and translates to slightly over $4,000 a year. Comparatively, that number is just under $2,500 on average statewide and $2,700 nationwide.
Is eating out affordable in Philadelphia? On average, a meal at a cheap restaurant runs about $15. That’s the same as the national price. A three-course meal for two at a mid-range restaurant will leave you with a $55 check, five bucks below the national average. Even a combo meal at Mcdonald’s is the same as the rest of the country at about $8.
Transportation costs in Philadelphia
It’s no secret that commuting in Philadelphia is tough if you’re driving your own car. The city is known as the second-worst for traffic congestion, behind only New York City in the number of hours spent in the car to and from work.
But at least the cost of commuting in Philly isn’t horrifically pricey. The city has a Transportation Index of 13.5 percent, good enough for just the 29th most expensive in America.
Like in many major east coast cities, it’s expensive to own a car. Thankfully, the price of a gallon of gas (unleaded regular including all taxes) in Philly averages $2.43, just 28 cents above average. That last part is key, as Pennsylvania has one of the highest gasoline taxes — currently 58 cents per gallon.
One of the biggest auto expenses in the city is parking. In Philadelphia, monthly parking averages $275 a month. The cheapest lots, in outlying areas, run about $140 a month while lots and garages near or in Center City can run as much as $500.
And while there are no toll roads within the Philly city limits, the Pennsylvania Turnpike runs east/west just north of town. On average, the PA Turnpike charges 13 cents a mile if you pay with EZPass (and about double that without).
However, the city features four toll bridges that run to and from New Jersey: the Walt Whitman, Betsy Ross, Ben Franklin and Tacony Palmyra Bridges. All are free from Philly into Jersey but carry a toll of five dollars to return (except the Tacony Palmyra which is three).
Public transit in Philadelphia
Thankfully, Philadelphia has a robust public transportation system. The city’s transit authority SEPTA offers four subway and elevated train lines, 13 regional rail lines and dozens of bus and trolley routes. Nearly a quarter of Philadelphia workers commute via public transit. The city’s transit score is 68.
All city rapid transit, which includes trolleys, buses and trolley buses, costs $2.50 for a single trip regardless of distance or time of day. That goes down to two dollars when using the city’s new smart card program, SEPTA Key. Those are the same prices for Philly’s rapid rail lines as well, which includes the Broad Street, Market Frankford, Ridge Spur and Norristown High Speed lines subways and elevated trains. A transfer is a dollar, with the first one free.
As with most systems, prices are cheaper when purchased in bulk in advance. A weekly transit pass in Philly runs $25.50 and $96 for a monthly ride pass. Overall, this is one of the lowest prices of any city in its category (when calculated as a percent of income).
SEPTA’s commuter rail network is known as Regional Rail and operates within the city and to the suburbs as well as New Jersey and Delaware. Trains depart any of the 150 stations across the region about once an hour on average. All of its 13 lines pass through the city’s three Center City stations: Suburban, Jefferson and 30th Street (also home of the city’s Amtrak hub).
Prices for regional rail vary depending on distance and day traveling. For travel entirely within the city, a one-way ticket runs $5.25 during the week and $4.25 on the weekend and holidays.
For travel to and from the suburbs, tickets cost up to $6.75 on weekdays and $5.25 on the weekend depending on to and from which “zone” you are traveling. Pricing is higher if purchased on board with cash rather than in advance or with a smart card. Seniors and children riding with adults ride free on any mode while riders with disabilities travel at half price.
Walking and biking in Philadelphia
Philadelphia is also an eminently commutable city without requiring power transport. The gorgeous city streets are highly walkable, with an excellent walk score of 84.
As well, Philly is a haven for bikers with designated bike lanes and bike paths throughout the city and a bike score of 76.
The city also provides a convenient bicycle ride share program called Indego. The program offers over 1,000 bikes at 125 stations throughout the city. Pricing varies from four dollars for an individual half-hour to $17 a month for unlimited hour-long rides.
Healthcare costs in Philadelphia
Pennsylvania Hospital, founded in 1751 by Benjamin Franklin, is the oldest hospital in the U.S. Today there are over a dozen major hospitals in Philadelphia, along with a slew of smaller ones, a number of children’s hospitals and several cancer specialty centers. Philly is a hotbed for quality healthcare.
The Philly healthcare scene’s excellence balances by the breadth of available service. This has kept healthcare prices in the city stunningly low. The cost of living in Philadelphia for healthcare is 0.4 percent above the national average and the 111th most expensive in America.
A visit to a doctor (specifically a general practitioner) is $133 on average. This is good enough to rank 51st nationwide. Need your teeth checked? An appointment with a dentist for a cleaning is just the 141st priciest in the country, nearly 70 cents below average.
The best value in health care in Philly? Prescriptions within the survey are $88 below the national average, the 14th cheapest of all cities.
However, if your furry roommate needs attention, you might be paying a bit more. A veterinary visit (for an annual exam) is the 17th most costly in the nation.
While these numbers are promising, it is difficult to determine an average cost of healthcare overall as needs vary depending on your individual health.
Goods and services costs in Philadelphia
Most everything else that isn’t included above falls as goods and services. Goods covers everything you buy that’s not consumable or isn’t a tangible item. This could be anything from paper clips to potting soil to concert tickets. Services include most visits with professionals that don’t involve health care or your car. This is any personal business trade from dog grooming to plumbing repair, yoga instruction to landscaping.
As far as a goods and service economy, Philadelphia is incredibly affordable for its size. In fact, the cost of living in Philadelphia for goods and services is 5.6 percent above the national average. Despite its ranking as the sixth-largest city in the nation, its goods and services rank is 61st.
There are a number of items that are inexpensive in Philly. For example, a newspaper subscription averages just $14, just the 60th priciest in the nation. An average movie ticket for a first-run film ranks 61st at just $12.
Think it is expensive to get your hair done in a cosmopolitan east coast city? It’s not cheap, but a visit to a salon will run you $61, that’s just the 20th most expensive in the nation. In fact, it’s comparable to a visit to a stylist in Manhattan or Queens, about $23.50 above the national average.
Taxes in Philadelphia
The full sales tax rate in Philadelphia is 8 percent. This represents 6 percent from the state and the remaining 2 percent from Philadelphia County. The county is conterminous with the city, which has no sales tax of its own.
In general, non-sales-taxed items in the state include food (both grocery and dining), medicine and drug store items and most clothing. If you purchase $1,000 of taxable items in Philadelphia, you’ll be paying $80 in sales tax.
The city also charges a sugary drink tax. The 1.5 cents per ounce tax applies to sodas and any non-alcoholic beverage that lists sugar or any sweetener as an ingredient. The proceeds primarily benefit city education and recreation programs.
Philadelphia’s current property tax rate hovers around 1.4 percent. City income wage tax sits just under 3.9 percent. The wage tax applies to all Philadelphia residents regardless of where they work and all Philadelphia-based employees regardless of where they live.
How much do I need to earn to live in Philadelphia
The monthly rent in Philadelphia is $2,152 on average for a one-bedroom apartment. That represents a 2.56 percent increase in similar units year to year.
Experts suggest spending no more than 30 percent of your annual income on housing. Multiplying the rent on average for a one-bedroom by 12, you determine the average yearly rent is $25,824. This means you should have an annual household income of at least $86,080.
However, according to Payscale.com, the average salary in Philadelphia is $69,000. That means that a resident earning the average salaried wage would be budgeted to spend $21,000 a year or $1,750 a month on rent. That’s over $400 less than the average one-bedroom apartment.
Check out our rent calculator to see how much you can afford each month.
Living in Philadelphia
There are a number of factors to consider when moving to, within or around Philadelphia. But regardless of the category, the cost of living in Philadelphia is moderate compared to many cities its size. It’s a budget-friendly city especially when it comes to health care, housing and other channels.
No matter your budget, there’s a perfect Philly neighborhood and comfortable home waiting for you. Check out the great places to lay your head at night in the Philadelphia apartment rental listings or for homes to buy.
Cost of living information comes from The Council for Community and Economic Research.
Rent prices are based on a rolling weighted average from Apartment Guide and Rent.’s multifamily rental property inventory of one-bedroom apartments in April 2021. Our team uses a weighted average formula that more accurately represents price availability for each individual unit type and reduces the influence of seasonality on rent prices in specific markets.
The rent information included in this article is used for illustrative purposes only. The data contained herein do not constitute financial advice or a pricing guarantee for any apartment.
Source: rent.com
Apache is functioning normally
Southern California’s luxury real estate market never sleeps. But this past year, it collectively caught its breath.
Luxury sales slowed down in 2023 — a combination of soaring interest rates, a newly introduced “mansion tax” and an inevitable drop-off from a pandemic market when megamansions flipped like hotcakes.
In 2022, there were 17 home sales above $50 million and 48 over $30 million in L.A. County, according to the Multiple Listing Service. In 2023, there were only five sales over $50 million and 23 over $30 million.
But even in a down year, there were still plenty of headlines. Jay-Z and Beyoncé set the all-time price record in the state of California, while other celebrities sold homes and left L.A. just in time to avoid paying taxes under Measure ULA.
Here are the top sales of the year.
$200 million
History was made in May when Jay-Z and Beyoncé shattered California’s price record, paying $200 million for a concrete compound in Malibu.
The L-shaped house, which topped the previous record of $177 million, looks more like an airplane hangar or supervillain’s lair than a home. It was built by Tadao Ando, a decorated Japanese architect who also designed a home for Kanye West a few miles down the coast. Ando brought in 7,645 cubic yards of concrete to erect the 40,000-square-foot home.
It never officially hit the market, so photos are scarce. The property is perched above Malibu’s Paradise Cove and features concrete hallways and walls of glass that open to a swimming pool and lawn overlooking the ocean.
$60.85 million
Another power couple — Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck — claimed the second-highest home purchase of the year when they shelled out $60.85 million for a five-acre spread in Beverly Crest. High interest rates weren’t a problem; they didn’t need a 30-year-fixed. The pair paid in cash.
The deal marked the end of a year-long house hunt for Lopez and Affleck, and the house boasts an array of amenities that few other mega-mansions can match. Across 38,000 square feet are 12 bedrooms, 24 bathrooms, 15 fireplaces, a movie theater, wine cellar, nail salon and sauna, as well as a 5,000-square-foot sports facility with a boxing ring and pickleball court.
The $60.85-million sale actually came at a discount; the home originally hit the market with a gargantuan price tag of $135 million.
$55 million
Some scratched their heads when Mark Wahlberg unloaded his Beverly Park mega-mansion for $55 million in February. The movie star spent years designing the French-inspired palace, and he originally asked $87.5 million when he first listed it in 2022.
But Wahlberg was a motivated seller. He moved to Nevada last year, and by selling the home in February, he avoided Measure ULA, a transfer tax that took effect April 1 and would’ve charged a 5.5% tax on the sale. At $55 million, Wahlberg’s tax bill would’ve been more than $3 million.
The European-inspired showplace is truly one of a kind, featuring amenities such as a five-hole golf course, driving range, grotto-style swimming pool and skate park. Wahlberg, a native of Massachusetts, also added a Boston Celtics-themed basketball court during his stay.
$52.056 million
Malibu’s second entry on this list comes via attorney Stuart Liner and his wife, Stephanie Hershey Liner, who sold their beach house on Point Dume for just over $52 million.
The Liners have made a fortune flipping houses over the years, including doubling their money on a house they bought from actor Danny DeVito. They scored a hefty profit here as well; records show they paid $21.758 million for the oceanfront home in 2020 before extensively remodeling the place.
The 6,000-square-foot house comes with a swimming pool and tennis court. It sold to Tom van Loben Sels, a partner at Bay Area tax firm Apercen Partners.
$52 million
For years, Villa Firenze was a cautionary tale, an extravagant reminder that while fortunes can be won in Southern California’s lucrative real estate market, you have to be strategic in how you sell to truly cash in.
Hungarian billionaire Steven Udvar-Hazy was not. The airplane mogul built the Italian-inspired mansion in 1998 and listed it for $165 million in 2017, which at the time was one of the most ambitious asking prices in California history.
Clearly overpriced, the house sat on the market for years until it was auctioned off for $51 million in 2021 to biotech entrepreneur Roy Eddleman, who, for some reason, tried the same thing as Udvar-Hazy.
Eddleman quickly attempted to flip the house for a massive profit, putting it back onto the market for $120 million just a year after he bought it. Unsurprisingly, there were no takers, and he died before it sold.
His estate slashed the price on the luxurious villa, which features 40-foot palm trees, 20-foot ceilings and a two-story library complete with a secret passageway that leads to a bedroom and bar.
After a year of price cuts, it finally sold in February for $52 million, just $1 million more than Eddleman paid for it at auction two years prior.
Source: latimes.com
Apache is functioning normally
By comparison, agency net MBS issuance in 2021, when interest rates were half of what they are today, came in at $870 billion, according to Amherst. Net issuance in MBS represents new securities issued less the decline in outstanding securities due to principal paydowns or prepayments.
Spread expansion
Adding to the woes in the agency MBS market are outsized spreads, with the spread between the 30-year fixed mortgage and the benchmark 10-year Treasury hovering around 2.9 percentage points in early December, when historically that spread has ranged between 1 to 2 percentage points. That wide spread has squeezed margins on agency MBS, with 6% coupons at yearend 2023, for example, trading at a fraction of a percentage point above par, down from nearly 10 points above par at the end of the first quarter of last year.
Amherst Chairman and CEO Sean Dobson said the shrinking margins in the agency MBS sector are a byproduct of an over-supply of paper and a greatly reduced investor balance sheets for absorbing the debt. A major purchaser of agency MBS until last year was the Federal Reserve, he explained, which is now allowing up to $35 billion of MBS to roll off its balance sheet each month.
The reduced role of the Fed and other investors in the agency MBS market is acting as a type of governor on rates, preventing them from getting much downward traction. As origination volume increases, and related MBS issuance goes up, so does the supply of MBS for sale in the market — creating downward pressure on prices, assuming buyer demand remains repressed.
Andrew Rhodes, senior director and head of trading at Mortgage Capital Trading, said a loan originator is trying to estimate where their end investor is going to be buying the loan, “so whether it’s the whole loan or the securitization, they are trying to figure out exactly what that price is going to be.”
“Then the independent mortgage bank (IMB) can originate the loan to that level because that’s how they’re really managing that margin,” he added. “And if all of a sudden, your investor that you thought was going to be spending 103 or 104 [for that loan or MBS] is now at 102, that’s a big hit to that origination volume that you thought was going to be getting a point or two higher in price.”
Dobson said heading into the end of 2023, the securitization market “is structurally impaired right now because the normal sponsor [investor] base is absent.”
“Some of them are gone forever, and some of them are basically going to have to rebuild capability,” he said. “…This is speculative to a certain extent, but should rates go down, and should a lot of [new MBS] supply get created because of refinancing activity, the market is going to have a really hard time with that.
“…So, now the question is, what’s the new level that gets it [MBS] to clear when the normal sponsors [investors, such as the Fed] are offline, and that new level is an excess return that’s now something like 50 basis points wider than corporate bonds.”
Amherst projects that in 2023, the pull-back of the Federal Reserve as well as the banking sector from the agency MBS market will result in a combined $425 billion in excess MBS that will need to be absorbed by other investors, such as money managers and foreign investors.
“I think the Fed will not sell MBS but rather is prepared to keep letting the portfolio run off, even if they start cutting rates,” said Richard Koss, chief research officer at mortgage-data analytics firm Recursion.
“The Central Bank has expressed its interest in reducing its role in the mortgage market and would rather cut rates more if needed, rather than slow down the process of reducing its holdings of MBS,” Koss added.
Bank contraction
In addition to the reduced role of the Fed in the MBS market, the banking industry and other investors also have pulled back from MBS purchases in the wake of financial pressures sparked by rising rates — as well as plans by regulators to tighten bank capital-reserve rules.
“The problem is … the benchmark of fair [MBS] value was set when the GSEs [government-sponsored enterprises, Fannie and Freddie] could buy [MBS], when the banks could run huge balance sheets, when the REITs [real estate investment trusts] could run big balance sheets, and when the regional banking system wasn’t [impaired],” Dobson said.
Over the past year, a number of large banks have collapsed — among them Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First Republic Bank and Signature Bank.
“I think there are seven or eight banks total that exited warehouse lending this year, [such as Comerica and Fifth Third Bank],” said Charley Clark, a senior vice president and mortgage warehouse finance executive at EverBank (formerly known as TIAA Bank). The unit does warehouse and MSR lending “and really anything that relates to lending to IMBs [independent mortgage banks],” according to Clark.
The top 15 warehouse lenders as of the end of the third quarter of this year had extended nearly $80 billion in warehouse line commitments, representing about 80% of the market, according to an Inside Mortgage Finance report.
“We were not part of this, but there were definitely funding and liquidity issues [for banks this year], not only just liquidity issues in general, but the cost of funding on the margin,” he added. “So, it was not only hard to find deposits, but they’re expensive.
“And if you look at something like warehouse lending [to IMBs], the spreads are very tight. If you’re a bank that’s having liquidity and funding issues, what are you going to cut? You’re going to go to the lower spreads to cut, right?”
Other sectors
The narrative is similar for the private-label residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) market.
A yearend forecast report by the Kroll Bond Rating Agency (KBRA) projects that RMBS issuance in 2023 will come in at about $52 billion, down nearly 50% from 2022 and $10 billion below KBRA’s original projection for the year issued in November 2022. KBRA includes prime, nonprime, credit-risk transfer transactions and second-lien offerings in its RMBS analysis.
“[Reduced] mortgage volumes and continued spread volatility in a rising rate environment contributed to a meaningful issuance decline [in 2023],” KBRA’s recent forecast report states.
Ben Hunsaker, portfolio manager focused on securitized credit for Beach Point Capital Management, said for real growth in the housing market to occur, mortgage originations need to increase substantially along with higher securitization volumes, “and it doesn’t seem like that’s highly likely right now.”
“In the case where the Fed cuts [the benchmark rate by] 250 basis points, I’m not sure that’s necessarily a scenario where housing volumes are great and housing prices are strong because that would probably be pretty correlated with a really weak consumer or some recessionary-type outcome,” he added. “And then you have to have wider spreads [due to increased risk], which means the value of creating those mortgages and securitizing them is again hampered.”
If there was one bright spot in the secondary market in 2023, it was the mortgage-servicing rights (MSR) sector, which performs better in rising-rate environments because mortgage prepayment speeds slow to very low levels and returns from parked escrow deposits also rise — both of which help to pump up the value of MSRs. Trading volume in the MSR sector in 2023 is on track to slightly exceed 2022’s $1.1 trillion mark, according to Tom Piercy, chief growth officer at Incenter Capital Advisors(previously Incenter Mortgage Advisors).
“For 2022 [on MSR trading volume], my numbers were right around 1.1 trillion, and I expect 2023 to be slightly greater than that,” Piercy said. “However, I think it [trading volume] was front-end loaded over the first six to seven months of the year … but we continue to see the capital commitments to invest in MSR both from your traditional bank, and nonbank servicers, as well as the MSR investors.
“And so, I’m still quite bullish on where we are today, as we forecast the capital and the ability to absorb the MSRs in the market.”
Source: housingwire.com