Mortgage rates eased slightly this week, enough to reheat the homebuying momentum as the market heads into a traditionally busy season of the year, according to Freddie Mac. 

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.88% for the week ending March 7, according to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey. That’s a drop from the previous week when it averaged 6.94%. A year ago, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.73%. 

The average rate for a 15-year mortgage was 6.22%, down from 6.26% last week and up from 5.95% last year.

The slight drop in borrowing costs led to a nearly 10% jump in mortgage applications, indicating that buyer interest is strong as the market heads into the spring homebuying season, according to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association Weekly Applications survey.

 “Evidence that purchase demand remains sensitive to interest rate changes was on display this week, as applications rose for the first time in six weeks in response to lower rates,” Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khater said. “Mortgage rates continue to be one of the biggest hurdles for potential homebuyers looking to enter the market. It’s important to remember that rates can vary widely between mortgage lenders, so shopping around is essential.”

If you are looking to take advantage of the current mortgage rates by refinancing your mortgage loan or are ready to shop for the best rate on a new mortgage, consider visiting an online marketplace like Credible to compare rates and get preapproved with multiple lenders at once.

SOCIAL SECURITY: COLA INCREASING BUT MEDICARE COSTS RISING TOO IN 2024

Market waits for rates to drop 

While the Federal Reserve has said that the plan to reverse interest rate hikes is still in the works, the timeline for when those cuts will begin has been unclear. A reversal in interest rates is crucial in creating more affordability for buyers also dealing with record home price gains. 

However, housing supply is improving, according to a recent Redfin report. New listings rose 13% from a year earlier nationwide during the four weeks ending March 3, the most significant increase in nearly three years. And home prices have also lost some momentum. Roughly 5.5% of home sellers dropped their asking price, the highest share of any February since at least 2015, while the share of affordable homes on the market has increased, according to Realtor.com.

“Mortgage rates remain stubbornly high, and since there is no indication that the Fed will set interest rates meaningfully lower in the short term, it is unlikely that mortgage rates will fall much this year,” Voxtur Analytics Senior Vice President David Sober said in a statement. “If a potential homebuyer is waiting for a lower rate, with house prices still rising overall, they probably won’t get the deal they want anytime soon.”

If you’re looking to become a homeowner, you could still find the best mortgage rates by shopping around. Visit Credible to compare your options without affecting your credit score.

AMERICANS LIVING PAYCHECK TO PAYCHECK OWN 60% OF CREDIT CARD DEBT: SURVEY

Buyers should shop for the best rate

Despite the continued increase in rates, homebuyers could save on borrowing costs by shopping for the best rate with the right lender.

When mortgage rates are high, borrowers can save more by shopping around. Mortgage rate variability more than doubled in 2022 when rates exceeded 7%, according to Freddie Mac research. Borrowers who shopped for five different rate quotes could have saved more than $6,000 over the life of the loan, assuming the loan remains active for at least five years.

“The increase in rate dispersion means that consumers with similar borrower profiles are being offered a wide range of mortgage rates,” Genaro Villa, a macro and housing economics professional for Freddie Mac, said in the research brief. “In the context of today’s rate environment, although mortgage rates are averaging around 6%, many consumers that fit the same borrower profile could have received a better deal on one day and locked in a 5.5% rate, and on another day locked in a rate closer to 6.5%.”

If you are ready to shop for a mortgage loan or are looking to refinance an existing one, you can use the Credible marketplace to compare rates and lenders and get a mortgage preapproval letter in minutes.

SECURE 2.0: OPTIONAL PROVISIONS KICK IN TO HELP RETIREMENT SAVERS WITH EMERGENCIES AND STUDENT LOAN DEBT

Have a finance-related question, but don’t know who to ask? Email The Credible Money Expert at [email protected] and your question might be answered by Credible in our Money Expert column.

Source: foxbusiness.com

Apache is functioning normally

I didn’t know how to pronounce Les Miserables until 2017. Now I know all the songs. My wife bought us tickets to the show for my birthday this year. What a triumphant masterpiece! 99% of children dislike art museums, musicals, and reading the news. But many adults find beauty or intrigue in those same ideas.

One day more!

A similar “boring-to-not-boring” transition happens in personal finance. The problem is that the fun doesn’t last. We had fun getting our personal finances under control. We got hooked on that fun. It lasted for months or even a few years. Money went from a scary unknown to an exciting area of optimization.

But then we got it all figured out and…well, the thrill is gone as B.B. King sang. And thus you find yourself here, on a .blog domain. Who uses .blog?!

Don’t despair. The lack of financial fun is a good thing. It’s a sign that your finances are in a great place.

But I still find fun financial things to think about and learn. There are a few traditionally “boring” topics that I find exciting. I’ll share them below, and maybe you’ll be intrigued too.

Get to Know Your Taxes

Can it get more boring than taxes?!

Actually, I like taxes. Over the past two years, I’ve realized that the tax code is half puzzle and half game, and I love puzzles and games.

The rules are well-defined (but there are a lot of them). I certainly do not know all the rules, but the more rules I learn, the better my “strategies” become.

The “pieces” interact in different (and sometimes surprising) ways. There are always multiple ways to “solve” a tax problem. Some solutions decrease this year’s taxes, and others decrease future taxes. Sometimes, we trade off lots of effort and paperwork to save a few bucks; is that a worthwhile trade?

If you’re a young W2 worker (like me), there’s not too much to know. Our tax scenario is fairly simple.

But if you’re a retiree earning Social Security income, making IRA withdrawals, realizing short and long-term capital gains, earning interest, dividends, and more, you’ve got an interesting puzzle before you! The interactions on a simple 1040 Federal Tax return can be quite complex and involve thousands of tax dollars per year.

If you’re a business owner or a real estate investor, the “puzzle” intensifies! This is why a good CPA accountant is worth their weight in gold.

To be clear, tax planning is not about cheating the tax system. When accountants tell me they’re “aggressive,” I take it as a euphemism for “I bend the tax code until it breaks.” That’s bad—and usually illegal. Avoid that. If you’re an honest accountant, please find a different word than “aggressive.”

But working with a tax professional who 1) knows the “rules” of the tax code and 2) enjoys optimally “solving the puzzle” you bring to them…well, odds are they can solve your puzzle much better than you can alone.

Pro tip: starting this year, review your 1040 Federal Tax Return (or your country’s equivalent)…try to go line-by-line, and if you don’t understand what a particular line item means, look it up.

Wait. For A Decade or Two.

The Best Interest is a big proponent of long-term investing, which, as you might have noticed, includes the verbiage “long-term.

We’re not talking weeks or months. We measure in decades. We beat a slow-tempo’d drum of basic tenets, like “buy and hold” and “diversify” and “don’t look for needles, buy the whole haystack.“

BORING!

To spice things up, I like to remind myself (and you) of market history. One of my favorite cautionary tales is that returns are never promised, and we’ve suffered decades of zero returns.

In that article linked directly above, I put together this chart:

WOW! Multiple ~20 year periods of zero return?!

As I’ve realized in hindsight, there’s a problem with that chart. Everything is factually correct, but the chart presents data differently than most people think. I inflation-adjusted the data. In other words, the chart does not measure dollars and cents. It measures purchasing power.

There have been multi-decade periods when investors’ purchasing power was stagnant. Their accounts increased in value, but inflation ate the entirety of those gains.

Most of us, though, measure our accounts in dollars and cents. We understand the reality of inflation, constantly knawing at our purchasing power. But we don’t inflation-adjust our conception of the world. If $1.00 grows to $2.00, we see exactly that. We don’t say, “…but inflation was 14%, so really it’s like I only have $1.86.”

To fix this problem, I reconstructed the plot to show nominal dollars.

If you read my primer on accounting for inflation in retirement, the chart above lives in “the convenient world” while the chart below lives in “the true world.”

The lesson: it’s realistic for your diversified stock portfolio to go through a ~5+ year period of negative nominal returns. If you’re unlucky, it might stretch out to 10+ years!

Now that’s exciting (in the same way BASE jumping is exciting).

It’s a far stretch from the lazy shorthand of “the S&P returns 10% year!” that too many FinFluencers use. I’ve been guilty of that shorthand, and I understand its usage when calculating 30-year compound math.

I despise that shorthand, though, when I hear it used to explain expected stock market returns to a new investor. New investors need to know that stock investing is not a smooth ride. It’s not always up and to the right. It involves years – if not decades – of what feels like wasted time.

5 years is a long time. 10 years, per math, is longer. Are you excited to stay the course that long through thick and thin?

Important note: this analysis looked at a lump sum investment. Dollar-cost averaging, though, smooths this ride out immensely! In fact, DCA actually takes advantage of bad times and volatility. I’m a huge fan of DCA’d monthly contributions through thick and thin.

Know Your Flow

Cashflow is the cinder block of personal finance.

It’s boring and basic and plain and every other synonym thereof.

But it’s also foundational.

You cannot build strong personal finances without healthy cash flow, and you won’t know if you have healthy cash flow unless you measure it.

Buy Protection

Speaking of BASE jumping…

The exciting part of extreme sports is “the jump” itself. But it’s someone’s job to consider the “boring” questions like,

  • “Is that parachute packed correctly?”
  • “Can that bungee cable support a 300-pound man?”
  • “If he doesn’t make it and lands in the pit of burning tires, what’s the rescue plan?”

Ok. That’s kind of funny. But on a more serious note, about the modern miracles of CPR and AED?

Christian Eriksen is a Danish soccer player, currently on the roster for Manchester United. On June 12, 2021, Eriksen had a cardiac arrest during a national team game against Finland. 50 years ago, he would be dead. But because the training staff is both CPR-trained and well-equipped with a automated external defibrillator (AED), Eriksen’s heart was shocked (one shock!) back to life. He’s still plays today.

No pulse. But someone was prepared.

A similar cardiac arrest happened to Damar Hamlin in a Buffalo Bills football game in January 2023. Again, an AED shocked his heart back to life. He’s alive and well and still playing football.

No pulse. But someone was prepared.

These might be 1-in-10000 events. Easy odds to ignore, right? But asking, “What happens if…” can lead you to some life-saving answers. A little preparation goes a long way.

The personal finance world skews less life-and-death than cardiac arrest, but some of the financial “Q&A” will point you toward:

  • A well-funded emergency fund.
  • Life insurance (term only!)
  • Home and auto insurance
  • Disability insurance
  • An umbrella insurance policy

If you’re unsure what kind of insurance you do (or don’t) need, ask yourself:

If something bad happened on [this axis], do I have the assets needed to pay for it?

  • If I died, would my family have the assets and cash flow to continue our desired lifestyle? If not, you need life insurance.
  • If I got disabled and couldn’t work…
  • If my house burned to the ground or got swept away in a hurricane…
  • If I got sued when the mailman trips on my sidewalk…
  • Etc. etc.

If you don’t have the assets to cover your liability, you need insurance.

You Made It. Go Live Life!

If everything in your finances feels boring, that’s a good thing. You’ve reached the top.

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There are plenty of nuanced topics to nosedive into.

Or, you can just go live your life. Go check out a musical or a museum. Another story must begin!

Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed this article, join 8000+ subscribers who read my 2-minute weekly email, where I send you links to the smartest financial content I find online every week.

-Jesse

Want to learn more about The Best Interest’s back story? Read here.

Looking for a great personal finance book, podcast, or other recommendation? Check out my favorites.

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Source: bestinterest.blog

Apache is functioning normally

I might get a little sentimental today. This is the 20th anniversary of my — well, really our — weekly column. In addition to feeling old, I also feel grateful.

It was actually slightly more than 20 years ago that I was living in Southern California, working as a freelance writer, when an editor from the Orange County Register called. The paper was launching a monthly regional magazine targeting owners of luxury homes — think Laguna and Newport Beach — and he wanted a column that would be the antidote to potentially pretentious content.

“So,” I said, “you want a column that is not about rich homeowners and their chichi architects and their museum-quality art collections and the exquisite homes they build on the bluffs overlooking the Pacific and how the whole experience was one giant lovefest, and they had money left over?”

“Right,” he confirmed, “a reality column.”

He’d found the right writer. At that point, I had built two homes from the ground up, had the debt and cortisol levels to prove it, and had an arsenal of frustrations.

Still disbelieving, I added, “You want me to write about the tile mason with the drinking problem, the neighbors who won’t speak to you because you’ve had an outhouse and a Dumpster parked in your front yard for three months, the dogs who got so fed up with the construction they ran away in search of a rescue, and about how the remodel took three times as long, cost three times as much, and you weren’t speaking to your spouse at the end?”

“Exactly,” he said. “Sprinkle in some advice. Be the girl next door who has the same problems as everyone else but is two steps ahead, because you’ve made the mistakes and know who to call.”

Eighteen months later, my then-husband and I moved from Southern California to Colorado — just one of my many moves. And soon, I had a syndicated column. That former editor congratulated me, then ominously added: “It’s great to have a weekly column, but one day, you are going to run out of ideas.”

Until then, a dry well hadn’t been on my worry list. I flashed back to when I was in kindergarten and got in trouble for talking too much in class. I wound up in the principal’s office with my mother to discuss “the problem.” When the principal asked why I talked so much, the answer was easy. “I just have so many important things to say,” I said, which was unintentionally hilarious.

So here we are 20 years and 1,040 columns later, and I still have things to say and no shortage of topics. Because I have never been able to see where home design stops and home life begins, my columns are about both. Here’s a brief look back at some of the moments we’ve been through together:

The calamities: You were there when my two custom seven-foot sofas arrived with the upholstery fabric inside out, when the back patio in our new Colorado home fell three feet into a sink hole, and when our rescue dog on his first night with us tested our commitment on the one-day-old living room carpet. (Who gets a new dog and new carpet on the same day?)

The many moves: You were there through 10 houses and nine moves, including the move to Florida, where I had a stint as a live-in home stager and moved six times in four years.

The life changes: You were there when I sent each of my children off to college, entering some sort of self-imposed dorm-decorating contest in which I was the sole contestant. You were there through my divorce and remarriage, the loss of two parents and the gain of three grown stepchildren.

The micro and macro: Together, we’ve covered the minor (how to choose drawer knobs and tea towels) and the major (the meaning of home and belonging and how to leave a meaningful legacy.

www.marnijameson.com.

Source: mercurynews.com

Apache is functioning normally

We haven’t talked enough about ISM Manufacturing this week because Thursday’s PCE data was the first report in more than 2 weeks that mattered.  Thus, the focus was on what came first as opposed to what has a track record of moving markets.  It didn’t help that ISM Manufacturing was separated from its usual top tier companions (all scheduled for next week).  Nonetheless, we now have a fresh reminder not to sleep on ISM Manufacturing!  The 47.8 vs 49.5 result has been enough for a decent rally to the best levels in more than 2 weeks.

Why the question mark?  This is only one day spent beyond the walls of our recent holding area.  It’s not over either.  The range breakout not only needs technical confirmation, but also fundamental confirmation from weaker econ data next week.  If ISM services were to tell a different story, markets would likely pay much more attention to that. 

On that note, how correlated are ISM services and manufacturing?  The question came up on MBS Live this morning and it led to the following charts.  In the bigger picture, the two are well correlated because both speak to general economic momentum. 

In the shorter term, the two are surprisingly divergent, however, thus suggesting that next week’s ISM Services data is anyone’s guess.

 

Source: mortgagenewsdaily.com