Investing in real estate is some of the oldest and most reliable financial advice in the books. Few other assets can compete with real estate’s vast array of benefits. These benefits include tax advantages, appreciation, relative impunity to market shifts, and even the potential for passive income.
But even if you have every intention of investing in real estate, it can be challenging to get started. After all, even a modest home usually requires a substantial down payment. And it can take years to save up those five-figure sums. The term “real estate investor” may bring to mind a multi-millionaire who manages several properties, leaving you feeling overwhelmed enough to give up the ghost entirely.
Fortunately, it is possible to invest in real estate with little or no money, even if you aren’t swimming in discretionary income. For instance, with an Opportunity Fund or REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) you can get your foot in the door even if you can’t afford to purchase an entire property. There are also a host of ways to leverage your own home. These include house hacking, renting vacation space on Airbnb, and more.
In this post, we’ll break down everything you need to know about how to invest in real estate. We’ll go over some of the most common types of real estate investing. We’ll also break down how they can help you make money. And we’ll explain how you can begin, no matter how much capital you have in hand.
Why Invest in Real Estate?
Before we dig into the meat of the post, let’s take a moment to backtrack. Why is real estate investing such a well-worn piece of financial advice?
You’ve probably heard that diversifying your portfolio of real estate investments is essential. But your “portfolio” doesn’t just have to live on the stock market! Real estate investing gives you, as the name suggests, a real, tangible asset. And it’s much less vulnerable to the capriciousness of the market.
Real estate investing can help you not only build home equity but also generate passive cash flow. Both through the process of appreciation and the more intentional, hands-on approaches we’ll study further below. And owning your own home can help you reap financial benefits while simultaneously providing for one of your most basic needs.
How to Invest in Real Estate with Little Money
When a down payment might cost as much as $60,000, it’s understandable that many first-time property shoppers feel overwhelmed. They say you have to spend money to make money. Yes, but that’s quite a hefty figure for the average American earner.
To be sure, some real estate investment strategies require a good deal of cash upfront to be workable. But there are other tactics that don’t necessitate such a large lump sum to begin with. This means you don’t have to be a real estate mogul to be a property owner. We’ll break down various strategies at both ends of the spectrum below.
Types of Real Estate Investing
Let’s get into the nitty-gritty. What types of real estate can you invest in?
There are three main types of investment properties available to real estate investors.
Residential properties are probably the ones you’re most familiar with. They are exactly what they sound like: buildings used by individuals and families as residential living spaces. These properties include single-family homes, duplexes, apartments, condominiums, and townhouses, and multi-family homes (so long as they’re being used residentially and don’t exceed four units).
Commercial real estate are properties used to conduct business. They may include offices, storefronts, retail spaces, farmland, and large multi-family houses or apartment buildings.
Industrial real estate are properties that serve industrial business purposes, such as factories, power plants, or storage and shipping warehouses.
Furthermore, there are both active and passive forms of real estate investing.
Active investing is, well, active. It requires a good deal of time, energy, and commitment from the investor. Active investing may become a part- or even full-time job for the investor. They usually share ownership with few (or no) other people and thus bears a lot of responsibility for the success of the investment.
Passive investing, on the other hand, allows the investor to reap the benefits of investing without taking on the pressure and responsibility of full ownership of a tangible property. In most cases, passive investing involves supplying capital to a larger investment pool. You earn capital gains on loan interest through dividends paid to shareholders.
We’ll go into it all of this in more detail, including specific ways you can invest in real estate, both active and passive.
How Real Estate Investing Can Help You Earn
Before we break down the specific ways you can get started investing in real estate, let’s talk about how it can help you make money. (After all, that’s the whole point!)
You can invest in real estate in several ways, depending on what type of investing you’re participating in.
Equity and appreciation
Purchasing real estate equips the owner with a “hard asset”; the tangible property or building. Owning this kind of asset confers equity, or value. It isn’t as vulnerable to the fluctuations of the market as stocks, bonds, and other securities. Furthermore, property has a longstanding history of increasing in value over time, or appreciating.
On the contrary, other types of purchases (like automobiles) depreciate, or lose value. Thus, purchasing a property may allow you to earn income passively simply through the process of appreciation. It more or less ensures that the cash value of your home is a safe and stable part of your overall net worth.
Rental income
Chances are, you’ve had to pay rent to a landlord at some point in your life. Well, if you become the landlord, someone’s paying you the rent. And as long as that rental price eclipses your total expenses, including your mortgage and maintenance costs, the rest is profit!
Aside from managing the investment property, you can also collect rental income by sharing your space on platforms like Airbnb or house hacking, which we’ll explain below.
Sale profit
This happens when you buy a home with the intention to fix it up and sell it down the line (also known as “house flipping”.) It’s the difference between your sale cost and your purchase cost (minus all the expenses put into maintenance and improvements) is pure profit.
Loan interest
The interest charged on home and property loans can increase the value of real estate investments made through REITs, investment platforms, and private equity firms.
Ways to Invest in Real Estate
Now we know a bit about the different types of properties available to investors and how those real estate investments stand to help you earn cash.
So, what are the specific ways to go about real estate investing? There are several in both the “active” and “passive” categories.
Active:
House flipping, or rehabbing, is when an investor purchases a property with the sole intent of fixing it up to sell it later on.
Wholesaling is similar to flipping houses, but less work intensive. Wholesaling occurs when an investor purchases a property they believe is underpriced, so they can quickly sell it to another investor at a profit.
Rental properties give investors a long-term way to draw profit from their investments, though they do require lots of hands-on management and maintenance over time.
Airbnb, Vrbo, and other vacation rentals can often be listed for substantial per-night prices. They can be especially lucrative in high-demand travel destinations.
Passive:
Private equity funds pool the assets of many investors, which creates a larger, more powerful investment fund. These funds are usually overseen and allocated by a dedicated manager. They may have high minimum investment thresholds and requirements to join.
Opportunity funds also pool investors’ assets, but with the specific purpose of making investments in qualified Opportunity Zones. These are low-income, up-and-coming communities that would benefit from private investments and economic development.
REITs are companies that invest in commercial properties. Private investors can purchase shares of the company and earn income on capital gains in the form of dividends.
Online REIT platforms can make real estate investing accessible to beginning investors, often carrying no net worth or accreditation restrictions. They may allow you to invest in specific properties or in pre-built, diversified portfolios of real estate.
We’re going to break down these different investment options in even more detail below. But first, let’s start a bit closer to home—literally.
Starting with Your Own Home
One of the most straightforward ways to invest in real estate is probably already on your financial to-do list, anyway: purchasing your own home.
Purchasing a home of your own allows you to kill two birds with one stone. You’re taking care of the basic need of shelter, while also leveraging the purchase to reap a host of financial benefits.
Here are just a few ways that owning a home can help you save and earn money.
Build equity: As discussed above, property ownership confers relatively immutable equity to the purchaser—that is, your home is a fairly safe, tangible asset to add to your overall investment portfolio.
Receive tax benefits: Certain homeowners’ expenses, including real estate taxes and home mortgage interest, are tax-deductible. And if you sell your home, you may exclude up to $250,000 of capital gains (or $500,000 if filing jointly) from your taxes.
Take advantage of appreciation: Even accounting for the 2008 crisis, the cost of homes and other properties have steadily increased over time for the past 50 years. So, the home you purchase today will likely be worth more than the price you paid for it in the future.
Stop paying rent: Although you’ll likely still have a mortgage payment and other expenses to cover as a homeowner, you won’t be paying rent to live in another person’s property. It’s a cost that is essentially entirely wasted, since you aren’t building home equity in the rental property.
Keep the value of your home improvements: When you own a home of your own, any improvements you make will add to the property’s total value, beefing up your asset as well as beautifying your living space.
House Hacking
Another way to make money by purchasing your own home is known as “house hacking“. It’s a real estate investment strategy wherein you leverage rental income from your primary residence to live there cost-free.
The term was originally coined by entrepreneur and author Brandon Turner, who wrote “The Book on Investing in Real Estate with No (and Low) Money Down” and “The Book on Rental Property Investing.”
House hacking may be done, for example, by purchasing a duplex. The investor rents out one unit at a price that covers the mortgage cost while living in the second unit. Some homeowners have also used space-share platforms like Airbnb to offset their housing costs in the same manner.
Real estate investors can use this strategy to pay off the property and even create a profit margin. This will eventually allow them to invest in more rental properties. Thus, house hacking is a great way to combine the personal financial benefits of homeownership with the long-term earning potential of other types of property investment.
Buying a Home Without a Huge Down Payment
Given the recent trends in the housing market, you may feel daunted by the prospect of becoming a homeowner. In 2023, the U.S. housing market experienced significant challenges, with home prices rising to near-record highs.
But there are many incentives and programs designed to make this large investment more feasible for first-time home buyers.
FHA (Federal Housing Administration) Loans may allow borrowers to purchase a home with a down payment as small as 3.5% of the purchase price and with credit scores as low as 580. (You may also be approved for an FHA loan with a lower credit score, but your minimum down payment may be higher.)
The USDA also offers low-cost loans to low- and moderate-income households purchasing homes in qualified rural areas.
Down Payment Assistance Programs offered by local governments and private firms can provide grants, loans, and educational materials to prospective home buyers
Many other financial institutions and organizations also have special incentives for those purchasing their first homes or low-income families in the housing market. Make sure you check with your local housing authority to learn more about what’s available in your area.
Active Investment Opportunities
Want to get hands-on? Here are the details on some of the most popular and accessible active real estate investment opportunities.
House Flipping
If you’ve ever watched more than thirty minutes of HGTV, chances are you’re at least passingly familiar with the idea of flipping houses. It’s basically where you purchase a home with the express intent of fixing it up and selling it (at a higher cost) later.
House flipping is a great way for investors to earn a significant profit. However, they do need to know how to complete the flip successfully without incurring too many costs. Expenses can quickly eat into the investment’s return.
Finding a Home to Flip
House flippers have to be able to recognize a home that may be slightly undervalued but would be able to sell well given the proper upgrades. This involves both an understanding of the area’s desirability and the types of improvements that generate increased home value.
House flippers are responsible for the entire cost of the home purchase. They must also pay for all the upgrades, which they may either do themselves or hire out to professionals.
Either way, flipping houses incurs a hefty up-front cost, and it does come at a risk. Even after you make all the improvements, it’s possible that the house will languish on the market.
This can mean racking up maintenance, taxes, and other expenses for the real estate investor. However, a properly executed, short-term flip can create a substantial profit margin in a relatively small period of time.
Wholesaling
Like house flippers, wholesalers purchase homes with the intent of selling them quickly. But, they aren’t planning to do any heavy lifting along the way.
Instead, wholesalers find properties that are undervalued for their market. They scoop them up and resell them to other investors at a price closer to their true value. Thus, earning the difference as a profit.
Rental Properties
While managing rental properties may seem like a straightforward and reliable way to earn income, it’s one of the most work-intensive approaches on this list. It does require enough up-front capital to purchase the property (or properties) in the first place. However, landlords do stand to see substantial and steady returns in exchange for the work and effort they put into their properties.
After purchasing a viable property, which needs to be well-maintained, in a desirable location, and well-advertised, landlords are responsible for filling that property with qualified tenants. This can involve a time-consuming and labor-intensive screening process.
After all, as a landlord, you’re giving your renters the keys to your investment—literally! It can be a very risky move if you don’t take the time to ensure your tenants are well-qualified.
Finding & Qualifying Tenants
Along with running a standard background check, landlords may also conduct interviews with and request credit reports from prospective renters, all of which takes time. And don’t forget: every month your rental property is unfilled is a waste of potential income.
Once you do find qualified tenants, you’ll be responsible for a host of obligations unless you hire a property management company. You’ll need to provide maintenance and repairs. You’ll also need to stay on top of rent collection and record-keeping. It can quickly become unwieldy once you have several properties.
You’ll also need to be sure you’re in compliance with all the renters’ rights that exist in your jurisdiction, including laws that regulate the eviction process. Of course, you’ll need to put in the work to find good renters and a well-maintained property in the first place. When done so, managing rentals can provide a smooth and steady source of income for relatively little active work.
Seller Financing
Want to buy an investment property with no money down? Look into seller financing or a land contract. This is where the seller acts as the bank. You make your mortgage payments, including interest, to the seller.
After a few years or so, you will have enough equity in the home to get a bank loan. You can then make a lump sum payment to the seller.
Private & Hard Money Lenders
Private money lenders generally charge between 6% to 12% on the money borrowed. Hard money lenders usually charge 10% to 18%. Hard money loans are not from banks. They are from individuals or businesses aimed at financing real estate investments for a return on their money.
Hard money loans are used by investors who don’t qualify for conventional financing. They are typically used to fund renovations. Once the house is finished or has some equity in it, the borrower then refinances to a conventional mortgage with a lower interest rate.
Airbnb, Vacation Rentals, and Space Sharing
Managing a traditional property, wherein renters sign a multi-month lease, is not the only way to make money from an investment property. Platforms like Airbnb have revolutionized the real estate market. They allow homeowners (and sometimes even renters) to make money by renting out their space on a temporary, per-night basis as a vacation rental.
What’s more, you don’t necessarily have to rent out an entire home or unit to participate. A private room, or even a couch in a shared living room, is acceptable for some travelers using these services.
Airbnb and other vacation rental platforms make it simple for a novice renter. You don’t need to have a huge amount of know-how to start earning money this way. In fact, you don’t even necessarily have to “invest” in any property at all. Some landlords may allow their renters to list their housing on Airbnb as a sublet.
Airbnb Laws
However, as this new form of investment property has expanded, it’s created housing crunches in some cities. It’s resulting in “Airbnb laws,” or short-term rental legislation. These laws may limit your ability to use your housing in this way.
Always check your local regulations before you list your space on Airbnb or another of these types of platforms. If you don’t own the space, ensure that short-term sublets are allowed. Check your lease or ask your landlord directly.
Real Estate Investing Groups and Passive Investing
You may have noticed that many of the active real estate investment opportunities listed above do require substantial upfront capital to get started. You can’t wholesale or flip a house if you can’t purchase the house in the first place!
Furthermore, these active strategies generally involve a high level of skill, effort, and responsibility. It may not be feasible for those committed to other full-time careers.
Fortunately, there are still other ways to get involved with real estate investing, even if you don’t want to own or manage tangible property. (Or if doing so is out of financial reach for you right now). These passive investment tactics can help you glean the benefits of real estate investing without taking on quite as much of a fiscal and physical burden.
Private Equity Funds
A private equity, or PE fund, pools contributions from various investors to make larger investments. They’re often limited liability partnerships. That means there are fixed periods during which investors do not have access to their holdings.
Instead, PE funds allow investors to earn gains on debt and equity assets passively, without putting in much active work or research. Asset allocation and investments are managed by a dedicated individual or group. They earn money through annual fees as well as profit sharing.
PE funds come in various types, including the following:
Core equity funds generally invest in established commercial properties. They don’t carry risks like needing major improvements or experiencing losses for lack of consumer demand. The core strategy is simultaneously the least risky among PE funds and, typically, the least gainful.
Core plus equity funds generally follow the core strategy, but take a few more risks on properties that may require minor upgrades. This leads to a higher risk-return ratio on average.
Value added equity funds may invest in commercial properties that require substantial upgrades or new management to operate at their full potential. They may also seek to sell the property after improvements are made to create an additional profit margin.
Opportunistic equity funds offer the highest potential rewards, along with the highest risk. Investment properties purchased via these funds may need new construction or even land acquisitions. The payoff of such a new business venture is all but guaranteed. Furthermore, these developments take time, which means your investment capital may be tied up for longer. However, when they pay off, opportunistic equity funds see some of the best returns of the bunch.
Although PE funds are powerful real estate investment engines, they do often have high minimum investment requirements, generally not less than $100,000. Some funds may also be limited to accredited or institutional investors who can demonstrate available means.
Opportunity Funds
Opportunity funds operate on a similar model to private equity funds but are specifically used to make investments in qualified Opportunity Zones. These are economically distressed areas designated by the state and certified by the Secretary of the U.S. Treasury. Opportunity funds are legally required to invest 90% of their assets into properties in these Opportunity Zones.
Because these areas tend to be up-and-coming (and because tax benefits can incentivize investors to support them), opportunity funds often see substantial capital gains for their investors. And taxes incurred on those gains can be deferred until December 26, 2026.
That means the longer the investment is held before that date, the lower your overall tax liability will be. And opportunity fund investments held for at least ten years prior can expect their capital returns to be permanently excluded from capital gains taxes.
Of course, this strategy requires parting with your investment capital for a significant period of time. It’s best for those who can afford to put down the money to play the long game. If you can, however, investing in one is a great way to see substantial returns for almost zero effort.
Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)
A real estate investment trust(REIT) is a company that invests in commercial properties. As an investor, you purchase shares of this company just as you would any other. You earn income through its debt and equity assets in the form of shareholder dividends.
REITs operate similarly to mutual funds. They provide an excellent way for the average earner to experience the benefits of real estate investing. You don’t have to have a huge amount of capital to get started, as minimum investment requirements may be quite low.
However, they may carry high investment fees, especially in the case of private REITs (i.e., those not publicly traded on the stock market). Fees at these companies may run as high as 15%. REITs may also be illiquid and keep your money locked up for longer periods of time.
Online Real Estate Investment Platforms
In this digital, all-sharing-all-the-time age, most of us have already heard of crowdfunding. Real estate investments are no exception to the rules of the new millennium.
Online real estate investment platforms have begun springing up. They can make real estate gains achievable for average investors who may not have the towering net worth or accreditation status necessary to buy into more formal funds. Depending on the specific company, you might be able to choose specific investment properties to fund or buy into a diversified portfolio of investments.
Fees and minimum investment requirements are relatively low on real estate crowdfunding platforms. For instance, Fundrise lets you get started with just $500. That is much less than you’d have to pay to get in on most types of active investments! Check out our full review of Fundrise here.
Ready to Get Started Investing in Real Estate?
As you can see, there are several ways to start investing without saving up a five- or six-figure sum. And if you do it right, your investments can actually help you reach those high savings goals. You can then fund other types of investment projects!
However, as with any financial objective, planning and strategizing is key. Saving up as much capital as possible will help you get the best return on your investment once you’re ready.
You can’t allocate your assets without first keeping track of them, and to achieve that, you need to create a budget. If you’re in debt, aggressively paying it off will free you of a weighty financial anchor, so check out these powerful debt relief options.
Finally, if you intend to purchase property either to live in or as an investment opportunity, your credit score matters. It’s as simple as that. If your credit score isn’t quite where you want it to be, take these steps to raise it. Doing so will allow you to get the best interest rate once you’re ready to make the big purchase.
Savings bonds are a cornerstone of conservative investing, offering a secure and reliable means to grow one’s wealth over time. Yet, many people remain unclear about the intricacies of this financial instrument.
In this article, we aim to demystify this valuable financial tool by delving into its core characteristics, advantages, and practical applications. Whether you’re an individual seeking to diversify your investment portfolio or a professional aiming to optimize your financial strategies, understanding the ins and outs of savings bonds can be a game-changer.
What is a savings bond?
Savings bonds are a low-risk, U.S. government-backed investment that you can buy to help raise funds over time. When you purchase one, you are loaning money to the government. In return, the government promises to repay the amount you invested with interest.
Electronic savings bonds are simple to buy, safe to invest in, and affordable. You receive interest payments, and the bonds purchased can go to many purposes later, such as qualified education expenses. The purchase amounts range from a minimum investment of $25 – $10,000. However, there are maximum purchase limits per calendar year depending on the type of bond you purchase.
How do savings bonds work?
Think of a savings bond as a loan to the government. While there are a few rules, the main idea is that the government promises to pay back your loan through interest payments.
The government sets the interest rate for the loan, which doesn’t change for the bond’s duration. You buy these bonds at face value.
Savings bonds offer fixed terms, meaning they mature at a specific date. Once they reach that state, you can redeem them for their total value – plus interest.
The type of bond you purchase determines the maturity date. Some can take up to 30 years, while others take much less time.
Different Types of Savings Bonds
There are two main types of savings bonds in the US today, both a fixed rate, while paper bonds are slowly being phased out.
The U.S. Government issues two main types at face value: Series I Bonds and Series EE Bonds. Below is an overview of what each entails.
Series I Bonds
A Series I U.S. Savings Bond is a type of bond that offers a fixed interest rate that adjusts for inflation. The bonds are sold at face value, meaning that the price you purchase savings bonds for is what it is worth once the bond reaches maturity. With I Bonds, you can protect your investment from the variable inflation rate.
The government sets the I Bond inflation rate twice annually, once for each upcoming six-month period.
The current interest rate is 5.27% for I Bonds issued between November 1, 2023 to April 30, 2024.
I Bonds can earn interest for up to 30 years, unless you decide to cash them out beforehand. You can buy them from the U.S. Treasury using a TreasuryDirect account, or purchase paper bonds using your IRS tax refund.
Series EE Bonds
Series EE Savings Bonds are savings bonds that earn interest regularly for up to 30 years. The government guarantees that the Series EE Bond doubles in value in 20 years, even if it needs to add money at 20 years to reach that number.
Series EE bonds differ from I bonds in multiple ways. Primarily, they are not inflation adjustable. The second is that new EE bonds are only available for electronic purchase.
The government applies the bond’s interest rate to a new principal every six months. A principal is the sum of the previous principal and the fixed rate of interest in the past six months.
As of 2005, new EE Bonds earn a fixed interest rate set on the day you buy a bond. After 20 years pass, the government may adjust the interest on it.
When should I consider a savings bond?
You can buy a savings bond anytime, depending on your finances and long-term investment goals. There are multiple reasons why buying bonds is a good idea for later, however, such as:
Their low-risk nature
They generate a stable and low-risk investment
The interest earned on them is exempt from state and local taxes
Any investor with $25 and above can buy them
Bonds pay back, helping you plan for the future
Enjoying the stability of a fixed rate of interest announced twice annually
Are savings bonds worth it?
Savings bonds are worth the investment if you are looking for a stable way to increase your money at a reliable, fixed rate. If you want faster and higher returns, saving bonds may not be your best option. Remember that you do have to pay federal taxes as the bonds accrue interest, but not state or local taxes.
Ultimately, the selling point for purchasing a savings bond is a stable and safe return on your investment. Not all investments you make come with a guarantee as solid as the one you can get from the government.
The TreasuryDirect website also lets you send an announcement to someone to let them know you purchased a savings bond for them as a gift.
How do I redeem my savings bonds?
Redeeming a savings bond is usually an uncomplicated and seamless process. If you purchased your bonds electronically, such as the Series EE or Series I bonds, you could cash them in through your online TreasuryDirect account. Once you do so, you will receive your money in a checking or savings account of your choice in a few business days.
If you purchased older paper savings bonds, you could redeem them at financial institutions where you have an account. The option to cash in a bond at a bank or credit union depends on how long you had an account with them.
For older series of savings bonds, like HH bonds, you can’t redeem them through banks or credit unions. The FAQ section will cover HH bonds, as the government no longer issues them.
For HH Bonds, you must complete a specific form called the FS Form 1522. Once completed, you must mail the bond with a certified signature and direct deposit information to the Treasury Retail Securities Services.
Early Withdrawal Penalty
Sometimes, a circumstance may force you to withdraw your savings bond early. Although not advisable as savings bonds are long-term investments, you still have options when something unexpected happens.
Series EE and Series I savings bonds have an early withdrawal penalty if you redeem them less than five years after their issue date.
So, if you cash in the bond before the five-year mark, you receive the principal amount plus the interest earned up to that point minus the interest accrued in the past three months.
After the five-year mark, there are no penalties for redeeming your savings bond. You can receive the total value of the principal and interest earned.
Savings Bonds vs. Savings Accounts vs. Certificates of Deposit (CDs)
A savings account and a CD are financial products that banks and credit unions offer. With a savings account, you can deposit money and earn interest on electronic bonds over time. A CD is when you keep a specific amount of money with the bank for a timeframe in exchange for fixed interest rates.
Although savings accounts and CDs are low-risk investment options, they are not backed by the government like savings bonds. And unlike savings bonds, you must pay federal, state, and local income taxes for CDs and savings accounts.
Benefits and Drawbacks of Investing in Savings Bonds
In terms of benefits, an electronic bond comes with low-risk, guaranteed returns backed by the government. You can use them as a future nest egg, for retirement, or to fund a child or grandchild’s education. Moreover, they come with tax benefits. The federal government allows exemptions on state and local taxes and are simple to buy and later redeem. Keep in mind that you do have to pay federal income tax on them in some cases.
One drawback to electronic bonds is the time it takes to make a solid amount of interest like a money market account. Additionally, they do not offer the potential for capital gains, only from the interest accrued over time. Finally, if you do not have a Series I bond, you do not have sufficient protection against inflation.
Bottom Line
Bottom line: Savings bonds are an excellent investment option if you are looking for guaranteed returns by the United States government. Although it takes time to get their full benefit, they are a reliable way to save money, helping you plan for the future or pay tuition for college. You don’t have to worry about a variable interest rate, and the interest payment is always stable.
Frequently Asked Questions
Where can I purchase savings bonds?
You can purchase savings bonds online from the U.S. Department of the Treasury through their online platform, www.treasurydirect.gov. Buying from the treasury guarantees safety and security. Paper bonds can only be purchased for Series I U.S. savings bonds. Additionally, you can only pay for a paper bond using a tax return.
What is an HH savings bond?
HH savings bonds offer semi-annual interest directly to the bondholder. They were only available as a paper bond by exchanging Series EE or Series E bonds. The government discontinued them in 2004, and they are no longer available for sale. However, some HH bonds are still redeemable depending on their year of purchase.
When can I redeem my savings bonds?
Savings bonds can be redeemed after a minimum holding period, which is typically one year. However, if you redeem the bond before it is five years old, you will lose the last three months of interest as a penalty. Bonds reach their full face value at maturity, which is usually 20 to 30 years from the issue date.
While average mortgage rates increased by a single basis point this week, they should move lower going forward in 2024 as inflation cools and the Federal Reserve reverses course, Freddie Mac said.
The Primary Mortgage Market Survey put the 30-year fixed at 6.62%, compared with 6.61% one week prior and 6.48% one year ago. It is the first increase in 10 weeks.
The 15-year FRM moved down 4 basis points to 5.89%, compared with 5.93% the prior week and 5.73% for the same period in 2023.
“Between late October and mid-December, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage plummeted more than a percentage point,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a press release. “However, since then rates have moved sideways as the market digests incoming economic data.”
Zillow’s rate tracker has the 30-year FRM at 6.26% on Thursday morning, up 1 basis point from the prior day but down 3 basis points from the previous week’s average.
“The latest economic data is stronger than expected, meaning fewer policy rate cuts than previously thought could be in the cards for 2024,” said Orphe Divounguy, senior macroeconomist at Zillow Home Loans in a Wednesday evening statement.
Divounguy pointed to a couple of trends that might not be beneficial to rate movements. The tight labor market is likely to be a boon for housing, but it could also put less downward pressure on bond yields. The U.S. Treasury is expected to borrow $816 billion in the first quarter, likely bringing upward tension on those yields.
“While the last FOMC meeting sent rates falling at the end of 2023, market participants and the Fed will be looking for more disinflation in the new year,” Divounguy said. “Otherwise, Treasury yields could surge back up, pulling mortgage rates up with them.”
The benchmark 10-year Treasury, which had gotten back down to 3.79% on Dec. 27, was close to the 4% mark as of noon on Thursday morning.
“Given the expectation of rate cuts this year from the Federal Reserve, as well as receding inflationary pressures, we expect mortgage rates will continue to drift downward as the year unfolds,” Freddie Mac’s Khater said. “While lower mortgage rates are welcome news, potential homebuyers are still dealing with the dual challenges of low inventory and high home prices that continue to rise.”
But signs of change are emerging. December’s lower mortgage rates led to a 5% year-over-year increase in net new listings, real estate brokerage HouseCanary said.
“With that said, any market turns are likely to be slow,” said HouseCanary CEO Jeremy Sicklick in a press release. “The mortgage rate lock-in effect is going to keep many would-be sellers who secured pre-pandemic mortgage rates of sub 5% little incentive to move, meaning low inventory will be a continuing trend.”
Broker, Fulfillment, Servicing Software Products; Housing for the Aging Population
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Broker, Fulfillment, Servicing Software Products; Housing for the Aging Population
By: Rob Chrisman
Thu, Dec 28 2023, 10:54 AM
If someone reports their company for tax evasion in the U.S., he or she will receive 30 percent of the amount collected. Have you ever loaned someone money and had them not pay you back? Here’s one thing that you can do to them (IRS’ 1099-C). While we’re on the general topic, despite strong retirement savings, Fidelity Investments’ Q3 2023 analysis reveals a surge in hardship withdrawals and 401(k) loans, addressing short-term financial challenges. By the numbers: 3 percent took hardship withdrawals (up from 1.8 percent in 2022). 8 percent tapped into 401(k) loans (compared to 2.4 percent last year). The silver lining? Retirement balances are on the rise, and savings rates remain steadfast. For those planning retirement, consider suggesting reverse mortgages as a game-changer. They offer an alternative, allowing access to funds without swiftly depleting hard-earned savings. If you haven’t set up reverse division at your shop, well, 10,000 people a day turn 62. Today’s podcast can be found here, and this week’s is sponsored by Gallus Insights. Mortgage KPIs, automated at your fingertips. Gallus allows you to go from data to actionable insights. If you can use Google, you can use Gallus. Hear an Interview with attorney Brian Levy on the NAR lawsuits and the implications for housing finance moving forward.
Broker and Lender Software, Products, and Programs
Are you a compliance nerd? A group of mortgage industry veterans has launched a software company for loan servicing that is getting a lot of attention. Keep your eyes and ears open for MESH software (Mortgage Enterprise Servicing Hub), which is their brand name for a series of software products aimed at loan servicers. The first product runs hundreds of compliance rules on loan portfolios daily, so servicers have a daily review of all loans against everything the CFPB, Agencies and States can throw at them. Look up “MESH Auditor”.
It’s time to start planning for the year ahead! Join the Computershare Loan Services (CLS) team from January 22 – 24 in The Big Easy for MBA’s Independent Mortgage Bankers Conference. With CLS’ originations fulfillment, co-issue MSR acquisition, subservicing, and mortgage cooperative, IMBs can streamline their operations, minimize expenses, and maximize profits. Contact the CLS team today to schedule a meeting in New Orleans.
Ring in the new year with a kinder outlook by joining us for the highly anticipated “Kind Mindset” event presented by Kind Lending. Taking place on January 16th, 2024, at The Buckhead Club in Atlanta, GA, this immersive event is designed to empower attendees with valuable insights on growth, success, and mindset. With an impressive lineup of speakers, including Kind Lending’s CEO/Founder, Glenn Stearns, and special guest Captain Charlie Plumb, 6-year Prisoner of War and former Fighter Pilot, this event promises to be a transformative and inspirational experience. Get ready to cultivate a “Kind Mindset” and embark on a journey of transformation and success. Register today.
Aging, Down Payments, and Housing Demographics
Do you think getting old is hard? The U.S. Census Bureau released a report showing that about 4 million U.S. households with an adult age 65 or older had difficulty living in or using some features of their home. About 50 million, or 40 percent, of U.S. homes had what were considered to be the most basic, aging-ready features: a step-free entryway into the home and a bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor. About 4 million or 11 percent of older households reported difficulty living in or using their home. The share increased to nearly 25 percent among households with a resident age 85 or older. Over half (about 57 percent) of older households reported their home met their accessibility needs very well, but only 6 percent of older households had plans to renovate their home in the near future to improve accessibility.
In general, Zillow expects home prices to remain roughly flat in 2024, with only a 0.2% increase in its housing market index. Existing home sales are expected to fall further to 3.74 million. Zillow does mention that this forecast does not take into account the latest forecast from the Fed, and the expectation for big rate cuts in 2024.
Falling mortgage rates have put some spring in the step of the homebuilders, according to the latest NAHB / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. As one would expect, with mortgage rates down roughly 50 basis points over the past month or two, builders are reporting an uptick in traffic as some prospective buyers who previously felt priced out of the market are taking a second look. With the nation facing a considerable housing shortage, boosting new home production is the best way to ease the affordability crisis, expand housing inventory and lower inflation. But builders have lagged production for so many years…
Non-builder loan officers find the builder world a tough nut to crack. Many, if not most, big builders are dealing with the mortgage rate issue by subsidizing buy-downs. Builders generally build free upgrades into their models, and these funds are being used to buy down the rate. The builder gets full price for the house, loses a few points on the mortgage, which might have instead gone to upgraded countertops or something else.
Even if one can get approved for a loan, buying can still be prohibitively expensive. Receiving help from family and friends for that crucial down payment can be a major turning point for many consumers. In fact, nearly 2 in 5 homeowners (39 percent) have received down payment assistance, according to LendingTree’s Mortgage Down Payment Help Survey, of nearly 2,000 U.S. consumers. 78 percent of Gen Z homeowners reported some financial support for a down payment, mostly from their parents. 54 percent of millennials have received down payment help, followed by 33 percent of Gen Xers.
Almost a third (31 percent) of Americans think putting down 20 percent for a down payment is obligatory. However, 59 percent of current homeowners say their down payments were less than 20 percent of the home’s purchase price, and just 29 percent put down 20 percent or more. One in 10 Americans never took out a mortgage, while 15 percent had a mortgage but have since paid it off. Baby boomers are the most likely to have paid off their mortgages, at 29 percent.
As anyone shopping for a home can tell you, it’s slim pickings out there. For many years we have been seeing the biggest squeeze in the starter home category. It appears that for years part of the problem is a lack of confidence to move up to the next category. People in starter homes are staying put, which is keeping homes off the market.
Capital Markets
It was another slow news day yesterday without any meaningful economic data or news to move sentiment. However, investors are laden with optimism as a soft-landing for the economy comes into view and seem to be throwing caution to the wind with over 150 basis points of Fed Funds easing fully priced in for next year. In accordance with that, benchmark bonds rallied to fresh highs yesterday after the U.S. Treasury sold $58 billion in 5-year notes to excellent demand. The strong auction exposed some short positioning, and it invited additional late buying. That followed Tuesday’s $57 billion 2-year Treasury auction that attracted a record number of indirect buyers to snap up high yields before the Fed’s anticipated rate cuts, which are fully priced in to begin at the March meeting in just over 80 days. Yields on benchmark treasuries have dropped to levels not seen since the summer.
Today has a fuller calendar than the past two sessions in regard to economic news. We are under way with initial jobless claims (+12k to 218k, a little higher than expected), continuing claims, advanced economic indicators for November (goods trade balance, retail inventories, and wholesale inventories), none of which moved rates. Later today brings the NAR’s Pending Home Sales Index for November, Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, and another large amount of supply from the Treasury, headlined by $40 billion 7-year notes. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices worse a few ticks (32nds), the 10-year yielding 3.81 after closing yesterday at 3.79 percent, and the 2-year is down to 4.25.
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CAAS, TPO, Tech, LOS Products; Fitch on First American’s Hack; Freddie and Fannie Forecasts
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CAAS, TPO, Tech, LOS Products; Fitch on First American’s Hack; Freddie and Fannie Forecasts
By: Rob Chrisman
Wed, Dec 27 2023, 10:54 AM
Susan Toste writes to Ira Selwin who sends me (see how these things work?), “Can you believe it is 364 days until Christmas and people already have their lights up?” Goldman Sachs asks interviewees, “How many square feet of pizza are eaten in the U.S. each year?” (The trick is to work through the logic, not necessarily come up with the right answer.) Learning math is something that everyone does, to one degree or another, and doesn’t typically go onto a resume. (I learned math a whole different way than they do now in China or Japan.) What’s on your resume? How about Scapulothoracic Hypermobility? The Financial Times reports that “Banks (worldwide) shed 60,000 jobs in one of worst years for cuts since financial crisis.” I regularly receive questions about the number of LOs who have left our business. “Plenty” doesn’t ever satisfy the person asking the question, but I don’t know the exact number. Many LOs gradually scale back the number of states in which they’re licensed but continue originating: how do you count them? But a decent source is the NMLS site: knock yourself out. Anyone searching for a new company home can post their resume for free at www.lendernews.com where employers can view them for a nominal charge of $75. Today’s podcast can be found here, and this week’s is sponsored by Gallus Insights. Mortgage KPIs, automated at your fingertips. Gallus allows you to go from data to actionable insights. If you can use Google, you can use Gallus. Hear an interview with Gallus Insights’ Augie Del Rio on how lenders are benchmarking and leveraging data to make more informed analytical decisions.
Broker and Lender Programs, Software, and Products
Amazon was able to fulfill the one billion purchases made during its cyber deals event thanks to automated decision systems developed by its Supply Chain Optimization Technologies team. Much like Amazon, Dark Matter Technologies’ Empower LOS uses process automation to drive down costs and make loan production faster and more efficient. With solutions for retail, wholesale and correspondent lenders, Empower’s all-in-one functionality provides users with lights-out automation, unrivaled efficiency and exceptional borrower and user experiences in a new era of mortgage lending. Explore how Empower can transform your business.
“Did you know yesterday was National Thank You Note Day? At Optimal Blue, we couldn’t think of a better opportunity to express our sincere gratitude for our clients and partners across the industry. This includes 3,500+ originators, 1,200 lender companies (including 64 percent of the top 500 lenders), 2,400 broker companies, 260 investors, and 70+ industry vendors. While we didn’t drop handwritten cards in the mail, we are packaging up plenty of product innovations to send to you in 2024. In fact, we plan to bring you even more innovation in the coming year. And as a company that already averages 300+ product enhancement releases annually, this is not a commitment we make lightly. On behalf of the entire Optimal Blue team, we wish you a happy New Year. We can’t wait to tackle the year ahead as your trusted partner.”
“AFR Wholesale® is excited to present a unique opportunity that benefits you and your clients: the Jingle Bell Float Down. From now until 12/29/2023, lock your loans with us and enjoy the security of our special offer. With the Jingle Bell Float Down, you can lock your loan for up to 30 days. When the loan goes for final review, we’ll adjust to the current day’s rate, ensuring you get the best deal without falling below your locked price. This offer applies to all AFR’s loan programs and is available through the Correspondent Non-Delegated, Correspondent Table Funded, and Brokered Channels. *Please note, some exclusions do apply. Ready to lock in your loans? Visit the AFR Loan Center now! To learn more about this exciting opportunity, connect with AFR: visit here, email us, or call: 1-800-375-6071. Don’t miss out on this special offer: Contact AFR today!”
Tired of high fixed costs and low retail volume? Thinking of adding a correspondent channel but not sure how to do it efficiently? Blue Water (“Blue Water Financial Technologies Services, LLC”) has a comprehensive Correspondent-as-a-Service (CAAS) solution that allows firms of any size to quickly go from 0-60… fast. NonQM, Seconds, Whole Loans and/or regular way agency loans and MSRs are ALL supported. Ingest multi-seller tapes, price different product types, access agency pricing + LLPAs and price them quickly and automatically! Manage AOT, manage investors, optimize for pools, and analyze commitments all within the same system. We’ll help you integrate with your LOS for point and click onboarding, and with integrated transfer and exceptions remediation tools operations have never been easier or more reliable. From pricing, valuations, transactions, transfer, QC, to boarding, Blue Water makes it easy to scale up your origination business. Connect with our expert Sales Team.
First American: Fitch Weighs In
As reported last week in this Commentary and continuing yesterday, on Dec. 22, FAF announced via an 8K SEC filing that on Dec. 20 it had experienced a cybersecurity incident and decided to isolate certain systems. The company is actively working to restore operations and has retained outside third parties and notified law enforcement and regulatory authorities.
Last week’s cyber incident is supposedly unrelated to the May 2019 cyber incident where FAF reached a $1 million settlement with the New York Department of Financial Services in late November 2023. Four years!? Title insurance companies routinely work with sensitive personal information including bank records, and therefore data protection is critical to their operational success. The same, of course, can be said for mortgage banks, credit unions, and banks.
Gerry Glombicki, CPA, CISSP, CCSP, CISA, ARM, and a Senior Director at Fitch Ratings, writes, “First American Financial Corporation’s (FAF) recently disclosed cybersecurity incident is unlikely to affect the company’s ratings in the near term due to the significant headroom in the ratings, according to Fitch Ratings. However, the ratings could be impacted the longer business operations remain constrained, if the investigation shows weak corporate governance or risk management, or material adverse information is disclosed.
“Fitch does not believe that the recent cyber incident will materially affect FAF’s capital position or financial performance because the company is the second largest U.S. residential title insurer and a leader in the commercial title market. However, future rating actions cannot be completely ruled out until the incident is resolved and all relevant information is disclosed.
“Fitch affirmed the ratings of FAF’s senior debt ratings at ‘BBB’ and the company’s title insurance operating subsidiaries Insurer Financial Strength (IFS) ratings at ‘A’, all with a Stable Rating Outlook, on Aug. 24, 2023.”
Fannie and Freddie’s Thoughts on 2024
Many will say that economic forecasting is like driving a car blindfolded and getting instruction from a person looking out the rear window. But that doesn’t stop people and companies from taking periodic stabs at it.
If you’re hoping that lower borrowing costs will boost activity, Fannie Mae’s right there with you. But home sales will only marginally rise higher. Mortgage rates will average 6.7 percent next year, close to levels seen this summer. The housing market will see some upside in the coming years, but persistent challenges will limit a bigger shift, according to Fannie Mae’s latest forecast. “Total home sales in 2024 will come in at about 4.8 million, largely flat compared to this year’s expected level, followed by a jump to 5.4 million in 2025.
“The drivers of slow sales are well known at this point: unaffordability, lock-in effects, and a lack of existing inventories freezing much of the housing market. While we believe these dynamics will slowly dissipate over time, they will remain obstacles in 2024. Still, existing home sales will undergo a slow recovery starting next year, after they hit a likely low point in October, at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.79 million. Meanwhile, sales of new homes have also continued benefiting from the housing shortage, as well as builders’ willingness to provide mortgage buydowns.
“This trend continues into our 2024 forecast, in which we expect new home sales to decline from current levels only slightly due to a modest economic contraction,” according to the report.
While the shift in monetary policy has spurred a sharp drop mortgage rates this quarter, Fannie Mae noted a limit to how far these rates will fall: it projects that the 30-year fixed rate will average 6.7 percent in 2024, before falling to 6.2 percent in 2025. That’s down from the current level of just below 7 percent, after they soared close to 8 percent earlier this year.”
Fannie’s somewhat friendly competitor also sent out its outlook. If you don’t want to take the time to click on the link: economic growth lower than 2023, unemployment higher (stop me if you’ve heard this before), mortgage rates are expected to be in the 6-7 percent range during the year, and Freddie thinks that home prices will rise more than 6 percent. For the tens of millions of Millennials who don’t own a home yet, for-sale inventory is expected to remain depressed, and Freddie sees a slight increase in dollar volume for purchase originations while refinancing is stagnant. Lastly, Freddie believes that the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting rates. All pretty safe bets.
According to the ICE First Look at November mortgage performance data report, mortgage delinquencies remained historically low in November, despite a seasonal rise. While default rates remain low overall, past-due FHA loans hit a 9-year high in November (excluding a surge at the start of the pandemic) and early-stage VA delinquencies reached their highest non-pandemic level since 2009; both segments bear close watching in the months ahead. Fewer serious delinquencies, combined with low foreclosure referral rates, contributed to Foreclosure starts and active foreclosures running 23 percent and 24 percent below 2019 levels, respectively. Prepayments fell again amid the usual seasonal pullback in home purchases, combined with the residual effects of elevated interest rates.
Capital Markets
As expected, this week began with a quiet start in the bond markets. There isn’t a whole lot to report, aside from the U.S. Treasury completing a solid $57 billion 2-year note sale in the early afternoon yesterday. Additionally, the FHFA Housing Price Index was up 0.3 percent month-over-month in October after increasing a revised 0.7 percent in September. The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index was up 4.9 percent year-over-year in October after increasing 3.9 percent in September.
Forecasts by “the smartest guys in the room” about a housing price collapse have proven to be entirely wrong. The S&P 10-city composite rose 5.7 percent, up from a 4.8 percent increase in the previous month, and as noted above the 20-city composite rose 4.9 percent. Sure, some over-inflated markets, like San Francisco, saw a small decline, but the strength in home prices came despite a sharp rise in mortgage interest rates in October. We all know that the average rate on the 30-year fixed loan crossed 8 percent before Halloween, the highest level in more than two decades. Rates, however, dropped steadily through November and more sharply in December, with the 30-year fixed rate now hovering around 6.7. That should help prices.
Much like yesterday, the domestic highlight of today’s calendar once again will be Treasury supply, headlined by $26 billion reopened 2-year FRNs and $58 billion 5-year notes. As for economic news, it consists of just Richmond Fed’s manufacturing and services indexes and Dallas Fed Texas services, both for December, and both due out later this morning. The MBA’s mortgage application survey won’t be published but will be back next Wednesday morning and will consist of two weeks’ worth of stats. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices a touch better/higher than Tuesday’s close and the 10-year yielding 3.86 after closing yesterday at 3.89 percent.
Employment for AEs
Logan Finance Bucks Mortgage Industry Trends with Strong Q4 Growth! As the year-end fast approaches, Logan Finance finds itself in a thriving environment sparking growth that has more than doubled over the last two years. “There’s a great need for Non-QM lending and we are positioned well to handle the influx of new business,” says Aaron Samples, Logan’s Chief Revenue Officer. TPO partners, if you missed the year-end pricing special announcement, see our LinkedIn profile at Logan Finance Corporation. Mortgage broker clients can get rate discounts of up to .375 on select loan products through the end of December, so bring your deals to Logan! Logan’s growth is also fueling several new hires including Wholesale and Correspondent industry veterans Nick Pabarcus and Dave Weatherford, who will focus on recruiting and growing our network. And speaking of hiring, Logan Finance is looking for Non-QM superstar AEs, so contact Aaron Samples for hiring information. Learn more about Logan’s growth at Loganwholesale.com and Logancorrespondent.com.
“Spring EQ’s TPO division continues to experience rapid growth as demand for home equity solutions accelerates. To meet this demand, Spring EQ is excited to announce a new second lien program designed for Correspondent partners. Eligible delegated and non-delegated sellers will now have the opportunity to take advantage of Spring EQ’s competitive suite of products, including fixed-rate second mortgages and adjustable-rate HELOCs. Explore Spring EQ job postings and come join our growing team of fun and experienced mortgage professionals! At Spring EQ our primary focus is second mortgages. So, think of us first for all your seconds. Want to become a Spring EQ Correspondent partner? Click here to get started.”
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The U.S. Treasury’s proposed interest rate freeze plan will likely only help three percent of subprime borrowers currently stuck in adjustable-rate mortgages, the Center for Responsible Lending said today.
Based on the nonprofit organization’s analysis of recent industry data, loan modifications will only prevent about 118,000 foreclosures among the 3.7 million subprime borrowers holding ARMs.
“The Treasury plan will be a welcome relief for those it helps, but given the magnitude of today’s economic woes, the plan won’t help nearly enough to avoid further widespread economic damage from foreclosures,” a release from the center said.
Of the loans studied, industry data revealed that for every loan modification made by a lender, 7 times as many foreclosures are initiated, and that number nearly doubled to 13 to 1 for subprime ARMs.
The group also slammed mortgage lenders for crediting themselves for executing “repayment plans” in which homeowners’ monthly mortgage payments actually rise, while terms on the loan don’t necessarily change.
And noted that lenders have no obligation to report the outcome of modifications, pointing out that Countrywide said most of its mods “involved deferring overdue interest or adding the past due amount to a loan,” not lowering mortgage rates or reducing loan balances.
“The most effective policy for significantly reducing foreclosures would be permitting court-supervised modifications of distressed mortgages—but homeowners are specifically excluded from such relief under current bankruptcy law,” said Eric Stein, senior vice president of the Center.
“Legislation to remove this barrier is now moving through both the House and the Senate. Congress has the power to prevent 600,000 homes from being lost to foreclosure, at no cost to the national Treasury,” said Stein.
“We urge Congress to pass this necessary legislation, both for homeowners and the nation’s economy.”
American Securitization Forum Proposes Changes to FHA Secure
In related news, a study circulated within the American Securitization Forum said the current FHA Secure program is positioned to help only about 44,000 subprime borrowers, or five percent of those who are more than two months behind on their payments.
The group said revised guidelines would help 607,000 subprime borrowers, or 68 percent of those who are severely delinquent, by offering the program to borrowers in fixed-rate mortgages, among other situations.
The changes would also open FHA Secure to borrowers who became delinquent for any reason and who made any six monthly payments since the loan was originated and three on-time payments after a rate adjustment.
Federal Reserve left its key short-term interest rate unchanged again Wednesday, hinted that rate hikes are likely over and forecast three cuts next year amid falling inflation and a cooling economy.
That’s more rate cuts than many economists expected.
The decision leaves the Fed’s benchmark short-term rate at a 22-year high of 5.25% to 5.5% following a flurry of rate increases aimed at subduing the nation’s sharpest inflation spike in four decades. The central bank has now held its key rate steady for three straight meetings since July.
That provides another reprieve for consumers who have faced higher borrowing costs for credit cards, adjustable-rate mortgages and other loans as a result of the Fed’s moves. Yet Americans, especially seniors, are finally reaping healthy bank savings yields after years of paltry returns.
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Is a soft landing in sight? What the Fed funds rate and mortgage rates are hinting at
Will the Fed raise interest rates again?
The central bank didn’t rule out another rate increase as it downgraded its economic outlook for next year while lowering its inflation forecast. In a statement after a two-day meeting, it repeated that it would assess the economy and financial developments, among other factors, to determine “the extent of any additional (rate hikes) that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2% over time.”
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a news conference, noting the Fed’s key rate is “at or near its peak.”
while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high after rising 1.4% following the Fed’s signals that it’s probably done lifting rates and is forecasting three cuts next year. The 10-year Treasury was down to about 4% from 4.21% on Tuesday.
Last month, Powell said high Treasury yields, if persistent, likely would constrain the economy and require fewer Fed rate increases,
In its statement Wednesday, however, the central bank didn’t acknowledge the recent decline in Treasury yields, suggesting yields are still relatively high and could spike again, crimping the economy.
“Tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation,” the Fed said, repeating the language of its previous statement.
Is inflation really slowing down?
The Fed’s middle-ground approach may have been cemented Tuesday by a mixed report on the consumer price index. The good news was that overall inflation barely budged in November amid falling gasoline prices, pushing down annual price gains to 3.1% from 3.2%, still well above the Fed’s 2% goal.
The Federal Reserve System is the U.S.’s central bank.
When does the Fed meet again?
The first Federal Reserve meeting of the new year will be from Jan. 30 through 31.
Federal reserve calendar
Jan. 30-31
March 19-20
April 30- May 1
June 11-12
July 30-31
Sept. 17-18
Nov. 6-7
Dec. 17-18
The U.S. economy was strong in the third quarter as consumers continued to spend despite high interest rates and inflation.
The value of all services and products generated in the U.S., or GDP, rose at a seasonally adjusted 4.9% for the year in the months spanning July to September, according to the Commerce Department. That was more than twice the 2.1% increase in the previous quarter and the most aggressive pace of growth since the end of 2021 when the economy surged back from a recession sparked by the pandemic.
a recession over the next year, down from the 61% odds forecast in May.
Barclays predicted a loss of roughly 375,000 jobs by the middle of next year. But consumer spending remains robust despite high inflation and interest rates that are making credit card use and consumer loans more expensive. And that may help stave off a recession, says Barclays economist Jonathan Millar.
What does FOMC stand for?
The FOMC is the Federal Open Market Committee, the voting body responsible for setting interest rates. The 12-member committee includes seven members of the Board of Governors and five of the 12 Reserve Bank presidents.
What causes inflation?
Inflation can have many roots. Typically, it’s caused by “a macroeconomic excess of spending over the economy’s relative ability to produce goods and services,” said Josh Bivens, the director of research at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank based in Washington D.C.
That means more people are wanting items and services than there is adequate supply, leading producers to raise prices.
“If everyone in the economy, tomorrow, decided they weren’t going to save any money from their paychecks, and they’re just going to spend every last dollar out of the blue, they would all run to the stores and try to buy things,” Bivens said. “But, producers haven’t produced enough to accommodate that big surge of across-the-board spending. So, you would see prices bid up.”
Inflation can also happen when there are too few producers, or there aren’t enough employees to provide the coveted products and services, Bivens said.
Finally, economies also have some “built-in inflation” to help keep inflation in check. In the U.S., that target is 2%, meaning businesses can raise prices 2% annually year and that shouldn’t overburden consumers. That’s also the typical cost of living raise offered by employers.
Inflation meaning
Inflation is the term for a “generalized rise in prices,” according to Josh Bivens, head of research at the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank based in Washington D.C.
Everything from food to rent can become costlier due to inflation. But it is the overall impact that determines what the inflation rate actually is.
“Inflation, though, really is meant to only refer to all goods and services, together, rising in price by some common amount,” Bivens said. The Federal Reserve’s inflation goal is 2%, which means businesses can hike prices by 2% a year and that shouldn’t cause consumers financial distress. Cost of living increases to workers’ pay are also expected to meet that target to ensure consumers can adequately deal with the rising costs of goods and services.
What is CPI?
In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) ‒ a measure of the average shift in prices for different products and services ‒ was 3.1%, down slightly from the month before.
Annual inflation is down dramatically from the 9.1% in June 2022 that marked a 40-year high but remains above the 2% target the Fed sees as the level that signals the rate of price increases is under control.
Why is CPI important?
The Federal Reserve watches two key aspects of the economy, price stability and maximum employment, and those are the main factors it takes into account for its interest rate decisions. The CPI is a primary measure the Fed looks at to help determine if prices are “stable.’’
What is the difference between CPI and core CPI?
Core prices don’t count the volatile costs of food and energy items, giving a more accurate window into longer-term trends.
Are wages going up in 2024?
If you’re deemed a top performer at a company that is offering raises, you’ve got a pretty good chance of getting a pay boost next year.
About 3 out of four business leaders told ResumeBuilder.com they intended to give raises. But half of those company executives said only 50% or less of their staff members would see a pay hike, and 82% of the raises would hinge on performance. For those who do manage to get the salary boost, 79% of employers said the pay hikes would be greater than those given in recent years.
Are U.S. Treasury yields rising?
Not recently.
The 10-year Treasury yield was above 5% in November when the Fed kept rates steady for the second consecutive month the first time it had left the key rate unchanged two months in a row in almost two years.
That led to mortgage rates spiking to almost 8% and pushed up other borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. Stocks meanwhile sank close to a recent low, leading Fed Chair Jerome Powell to say such financial pressures could achieve the same cooling effect on the economy as additional rate hikes.
But in the following weeks, 10-year Treasury yields dipped to 4.2% and stocks rebounded. That might make the Fed resist rate cuts in case the economy heats up and causes the broader dip in prices “to stall at an uncomfortably elevated level,” Barclays says.
Barclays and Goldman Sachs forecast that rate cuts won’t happen until the spring, and that there will be only two, to a range of 4.75% to 5%, with more cuts implemented in the next two years.
When will inflation go back to normal?
It may take a little while.
Inflation’s decline likely “won’t show much progress in coming months,” Barclays wrote in a research note.
Overall price hikes have eased significantly since peaking at 9.1% in June 2022, a four-decade high. And in October, broader inflation as well as core prices experienced a dip, leading to a lower 10-year Treasury yield.
But core prices, which exclude the volatile costs of food and energy, will probably rise 0.3% each of the next three months, Goldman Sachs says. Used cars and furniture have been getting cheaper as the supply-chain shortages of the pandemic end. Meanwhile, health care, auto repairs, car insurance and rent continue to get more expensive, as employers pay higher wages to attract workers amid a labor shortage lingering from the global health crisis.
What is core inflation right now?
Core prices, which leave out the more volatile costs of food and energy, bumped up 0.3% in November, slightly more than the 0.2% uptick seen the previous month. That kept the yearly increase at 4%, the lowest rate since September 2021.
New inflation tax brackets
Inflation may also impact the amount of taxes you have to pay.
The Internal Revenue Service said in its annual inflation adjustments report that there will be a 5.4% bump in income thresholds to reach each new level in next year’s tax season.
In 2024, the lowest rate of 10% will apply to individuals with taxable income up to $11,600 and joint filers up to $23,200. The top rate of 37% will apply to individuals earning over $609,350, and married couples filing jointly who make at least $731,200 a year.
The IRS makes these adjustments annually, using a formula based on the consumer price index to account for inflation and stave off “bracket creep,” which happens when inflation shifts taxpayers into a higher bracket though they’re not seeing any real rise in pay or purchasing power.
The 2024/25 increase is less than last year’s 7% increase, but much more than recent years when inflation was below the current 3.1% inflation rate.
Will Social Security get a raise because of inflation?
Yes, but it will be a lot less than what recipients received in 2023.
The cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, to Social Security benefits will be 3.2% next year. That’s roughly one-third of the 8.7% increase given in 2023, which marked a forty-year high.
The 2024 COLA hike is above the average 2.6% raise recipients have received over the past two decades, but seniors remain concerned about being able to pay their expenses as well as the increasing possibility Social Security benefits will be reduced in coming years, according to a retirement survey of 2,258 people by The Senior Citizens League, a nonprofit seniors group.
How does raising rates lower inflation?
The federal funds rate is what banks pay each other to borrow overnight. If that rate increases, banks usually pass along that extra cost, meaning it becomes more expensive for businesses and consumers to borrow as rates rise on credit cards, adjustable rate mortgages and other loans. That’s why the funds rate is the key mechanism used by the Federal Reserve to calm inflation.
Simply put, companies and consumers don’t borrow as much when loans cost them more, and that means an overheated economy can cool and inflation may dip.
Will credit card interest rates continue to rise this holiday season?
The Fed’s string of rate hikes, aimed at easing the highest inflation in four decades, are a big reason credit card interest rates have reached record highs just in time for the holiday season.
Some retail credit cards now charge more than 33% interest, topping a 30% threshold that stores and banks were previously able to bypass but seldom did – until now.
“They can charge that much,” said Chi Chi Wu, a senior attorney at the nonprofit National Consumer Law Center. “Credit cards can actually charge whatever they want. It’s a little-known fact.”
The domino effect of a high benchmark rate and soaring credit card interest could put many Americans in financial straits this holiday season.
Though some consumers are paring back to deal with high prices, rising debt and shrinking savings, the average shopper expects to spend $1,652 this year on holiday purchases, according to the consultancy Deloitte, more than was typically spent in the last three years.
A lot of the buying will be done with credit cards. In an October poll of 1,036 shoppers by CardRates.com, nearly 4 in 10 respondents said they intend to have holiday credit card debt in the new year.
The nation’s collective credit card debt was $1.08 trillion, at the end of September, a record high. And the average interest rate was 21%, the highest ever documented by the Federal Reserve.
Savings account impact of high rates
The upside to the Fed’s string of rate hikes has been that consumers were able to earn good interest on their savings for the first time in years. Even when the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, savers can do well.
Unfortunately, most account holders aren’t making the most of that potential opportunity.
Roughly one-fifth of Americans who have savings accounts don’t know how much interest they’re earning, according to a quarterly Paths to Prosperity study by Santander US, part of the global bank Santander. Among those who did know their account’s interest rate, most were earning less than 3%.
But consumers have time to make a change that could enable them to make more from their savings.
“We’re still a long way from (the Fed) beginning to cut rates,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at financial services platform Bankrate. “This is great news for savers, who will continue to enjoy inflation-beating returns in the top-yielding, federally insured online savings accounts and certificates of deposit. For borrowers, interest rates staying higher for a longer period underscores the urgency to pay down and pay off costly credit card debt and home equity lines.”
The string of Fed rate hikes that began in March 2022 has made it costlier for consumers to borrow as interest rates on credit cards and other loans increased dramatically.
At the same time, inflation has made daily needs more expensive, pushing more Americans to lean on credit cards to get by. But lenders have become more reluctant to issue new cards, so in the midst of the holiday season, more shoppers are seeking higher credit limits, experts say.
In October, the application rate for higher limits rose to 17.8% from 11.2% in the same month the previous year, and from 12.0% in 2019, New York Fed data showed.
For some consumers, a higher limit on a card they already have is about their only option.
“After COVID, inflation and interest rates went out of control … people have less emergency funds for car repairs or buying presents,” said Brandon Robinson, president and founder of JBR Associates, which specializes in retirement strategies. “What they’re doing is using more credit card utilization – over 30% or well over 50% of their credit card allowance – and then can’t get approved for another card because their credit rating is down.”
Inflation is leading more Americans to work multiple jobs
The number of Americans working at least two jobs is at its highest peak since before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to federal data, an uptick that may reflect the financial pressure people are feeling amid high inflation.
Almost 8.4 million people had multiple jobs in October, the Labor Department said, a figure that represents 5.2% of the laborforce, the highest percentage since January 2020.
“Paying for necessities has become more of a challenge, and affording luxuries and discretionary items has become more difficult, if not impossible for some, particularly those at the lower ends of the income and wealth spectrums,” Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate, told USA TODAY in an email.
People may also be moonlighting to sock away cash in case they’re laid off since job cuts typically peak at the start of a new year.
What is the Federal Reserve’s 2024 meeting schedule? Here is when the Fed will meet again.
What is the mortgage interest rate today?
Mortgage rates are falling, so is it time to buy?
It depends.
First of all, the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its actions have an impact. For instance, when the central bank was steadily boosting its key rate, the yield on the 10-year treasury bond went up as well. Because those bonds are a gauge for the interest applied to an average 30-year loan, mortgage rates increased.
But over the past six weeks, mortgage rates have been declining, averaging 7% for a 30-year fixed mortgage. That’s down from almost 7.8% at the end of October, according to data released by Freddie Mac on Dec. 7.
That may be giving some wannabe homeowners the confidence to start house hunting. For the week ending Dec. 1, mortgage applications rose 2.8% from the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
“However, in the big picture, mortgage rates remain pretty high,” says Danielle Hale, senior economist for Realtor.com. “The typical mortgage rate according to Freddie Mac data is roughly in line with what we saw in August and early to mid-September, which were then 20 plus year highs.”
So, many potential buyers may still need to sit on the sidelines, waiting for rates to drop further, says Sam Khater, chief economist for Freddie Mac. Hale and many other experts believe mortgage rates will dip next year.
Interest rate projection 2024
The Fed is expected to cut interest rates next year, though markets and economists disagree about how many rate cuts there will be.
Futures markets forecast there will be four or five rate cuts in 2024, amounting to a quarter of a percentage point each. The cuts, they predict, should start by spring, and ultimately drop interest rates as low as 4% to 4.25%.
But core prices, which leave out the volatile costs of food and energy and are the metric followed more closely by the Fed, ticked up 0.3% in November, higher than the 0.2% increase the month before. That might make the Fed more hesitant to nip rates in the immediate future.
Goldman Sachs and Barclays expect there to be only two rate decreases in 2024. And Fed Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned in recent public remarks that it was “premature” to talk about rate cuts.
November inflation report
Inflation dipped slightly last month, with falling gas prices mitigating the impact of rising rents.
Consumer prices overall increased 3.1% from a year earlier, slightly below the 3.2% rise in October, according to the Labor Department’s consumer price index. That slower pace moves the inflation rate nearer to the level, reached in June, that was the lowest in over two years. Month over month, prices increased a slight 0.1%.
Core prices, however, which leave out the more erratic costs of food and energy and which are more closely monitored by the Fed, increased 0.3% in November after rising 0.2% the previous month. That means core inflation’s yearly increase remained at 4%, though it’s the lowest level since September 2021.
Time flies (see joke at bottom), and here we are at Pearl Harbor Day already. “I’m a multitasker. I can listen, ignore, and forget all at the same time!” Occasionally someone will accuse me of having a sense of humor. If true, it can be traced back to my parents, but a portion of it came from watching Norman Lear’s shows like All in the Family, Sanford and Son, Maude, The Jeffersons, and movies like The Princess Bride (“as you wish”). Mr. Lear died yesterday, but his impact will be long felt. Audiences loved his shows. Does your customer love you, no matter the price? That’s the case with Coke. The average price of a 12-ounce can of Diet Coke in a package of 12 was 34 cents in 2018 but hit 56 cents per can in October 2023, a 65 percent increase. In general, Diet or regular, prices have shot up: The average price of a Diet Coke at a restaurant hopped up from $2.05 to $2.77. Inflation at many levels is impacting rates, including Treasury and mortgage-backed securities: STRATMOR’s current blog is titled, “How Treasury Auctions Influence Mortgage Rates”. (Today’s podcast can be found here, and this week’s is sponsored by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite’s three core products, nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics, unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process. Hear an interview with United One’s Sean Higgins on the vendor status of full-service mortgage, credit reporting, fraud solutions, appraisals, title insurance, and loan closing support.)
Lender and Broker Products, and Services
Revolution Mortgage estimates that they can save up to $20,000 in cost on verifications with TRUV over competitors. Femi Ayi, EVP Operations shares how he estimates he is saving 80 percent on his verification costs with Truv in this recorded event. Let’s talk about our documentation costs and those giant monopolies that are out there laughing at customers and increasing prices because they have a particular monopoly. You want to lower your manufacturing costs. Contact TRUV today to discuss how we can help you with your income, employment, insurance, and asset verifications.
“Are you struggling with declining production volumes and increasing costs per loan? Look no further. Outsourcing accounting is the elegant answer to this common challenge faced by independent mortgage banks. Whether you lack accounting expertise in-house or have a new team with no mortgage experience, the Richey May Client Accounting and Advisory Services (CAAS) team is here to provide the support you need. Our team consists of industry experts who can customize a solution to meet your specific needs in this volatile time, without requiring any additional training. Whether you need help transitioning to loan level accounting, a fully outsourced function, or industry training for your controller, we’ve got you covered. Contact Richey May today!”
Missed the chance to meet with Planet at IMN’s SFR Forum West? Connect with Planet’s commercial team to explore how our expertise enhances Single-Family Rental investments. Managing $100B+ in assets, we offer top-tier service, savings-focused strategies, and complimentary access to proprietary tools. Unlock the full potential of your investments: schedule your meeting now or call (585) 512-1030. Discover the Planet difference today!
Chief Sales Officer at Deephaven Tom Davis will join Rob Chrisman on a webinar you won’t want to miss. In today’s market, originators need Non-QM to fully serve borrowers and to stay competitive. Learning how to utilize and market Non-QM isn’t difficult when you partner with the right lender. Please find out how easy it is by attending the webinar on December 12th! Register now.
Nobody wants to be sold, they want to be served. Serve every homeowner in your database and get busy investing in relationships. Eric Spottswood, Regional Market Manager at Prosperity Home Mortgage did. Here’s what he had to say: “Recognizing that staying top of mind is crucial for securing repeat business, Milestones provides an excellent opportunity to consistently engage with our clients and reinforce those valuable connections with a one-stop home management platform. The bonus of having my team and our partners prominently featured in the portals is the icing on the cake. It’s not just a product I endorse – I actively use my own hub, and I’m thoroughly impressed with it! Milestones delivers the client engagement tools you need to retain every client you have. Book a demo today.
STRAMOR Tech Survey
Lenders, there’s still time to participate in the Digital Innovations Survey of STRATMOR Group’s Technology Insight® Study. Whether you are well on your way with your digital plans or are thinking through what to do in 2024, you’ll want the data that is only available from this study. This survey takes less than 10 minutes and participating lenders receive the survey report for free. Don’t miss your chance to have data on the key digital capabilities and the benefits and barriers to the digital technology available in the mortgage market today: take the Digital Innovations Survey now!
FHA and Ginnie Mae News
FHA announced new loan limits for calendar year 2024 its Single Family Title II forward and Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) insurance programs. FHA published Mortgagee Letter 2023-21, 2024 Nationwide Forward Mortgage Limits, which provides the maximum mortgage limits for FHA-insured Title II forward mortgages. These new loan limits are effective for case numbers assigned on or after January 1, 2024. Mortgagees may view the list of areas at the “ceiling” and areas with limits between the “floor” and “ceiling” along with lists that can be sorted by state, county, or Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) or by calendar year on the Maximum Mortgage Limits web page.
Mortgagee Letter 2023-22, 2024 Nationwide Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) Limits, which provides the Calendar Year (CY) 2024 maximum claim amount for FHA-insured traditional HECM, HECM for purchase, and HECM-to-HECM refinances. The maximum claim amount for FHA-insured HECMs for all areas, including Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, in CY 2024 will be $1,149,825; 150 percent of the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s (Freddie Mac) national conforming limit of $766,550. This new maximum claim amount applies to case numbers assigned on or after January 1, 2024.
FHA published Mortgage Letter (ML) 2023-23, Updates to the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage Program. This ML updates and streamlines Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) servicing policy to enhance the program’s financial stability and improve overall performance. These changes reinforce FHA’s commitment to serving seniors choosing to age in place in their own homes through the HECM program. Loan officers and down payment assistance program providers can visit the DPA One website for more information and to request a demo.
In Multiclass Participants Memorandum (MPM) 23-03, Ginnie Mae announced an optional early closing date for multiclass transactions beginning in December 2023. This option will allow sponsors to close transactions either on the Closing Date specified on the Ginnie Mae REMIC monthly calendar available on Ginnie Mae’s website or on the Business Day immediately preceding such specified Closing Date (an “early Closing Date”). Those sponsors choosing an early Closing Date must notify Ginnie Mae no later than the Final Structure Date and be aware that document delivery requirements outlined in the Ginnie Mae Multiclass Securities Guide (the “Guide”) will apply equally to the early Closing Date. All other transaction dates on the REMIC calendar will remain the same, regardless of the type of Closing Date chosen. For information on capitalized terms used herein, but not defined, refer to the Guide currently in effect, found on the Ginnie Mae website.
In All Participants Memorandum (APM) 23-13, Ginnie Mae announced revisions to its definition of High Balance Loans. These revisions align with the increased conforming loan limits recently announced by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA).
PRMG TPO Resource Center Updates 23-12 includes updates to Training/Instructional Material, VA Forms, Appraisal Forms, Second Mortgage Product Forms and Information, Non-QM Product Forms and Information, Updates on Bond/Housing Authority/DPA Products, Compliance and Quality Control Information.
Capital Markets
In any market scenario, it is crucial for lenders to analyze the best execution options to maximize profitability when selling loans in the secondary market. Determining what execution is most efficient and profitable will have a big impact on the bottom line. In MCT’s latest whitepaper, Optimizing your Best Execution Loan Sale Analysis, they provide insight into determining your company strategy, delivery options, retain release decisions, and more. Download the whitepaper or join MCT’s newsletter to stay up to date on the latest educational content.
MAXEX is now offering daily mandatory bids on bulk pools of Agency-eligible NOO and second home loans. Like our industry leading MAXEX Conforming flow program, get competitive pricing from five leading institutional buyers and avoid costly Agency LLPAs, all through a single contract and a single, standardized clearinghouse. MAXEX buys to agency guidelines via your existing bulk trading process. Visit here to learn more.
Taking a look at rates, which have improved, as the debate rages over when next year the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates we learned yesterday that American employers unexpectedly cut back hiring in November, according to data from ADP. It’s yet another sign of the labor market softening, but don’t read too much into it before tomorrow’s payrolls number, history shows it’s a very bad guide. Despite pullbacks in hiring and spending, the service sector expanded at a faster pace last month on improved business activity.
Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. tells us that U.S.-based employers announced 45,510 cuts in November, a 24 percent increase from the 36,836 cuts announced one month prior but 41 percent lower than the 76,835 cuts announced in the same month in 2022 and marks the first time cuts were lower than the corresponding month a year ago since July. So far this year, companies have announced plans to cut 687k jobs, a 115 percent increase from the 320k cuts announced in the same period last year. The job market is loosening, and employers are not as quick to hire. The labor market appears to be stabilizing with a more normal “churn.”
Today’s economic calendar also includes weekly jobless claims (220k; continuing claims 1.86 million), and wholesale inventories and sales for October. The U.S. Treasury will then announce the details of next week’s mini-Refunding package, estimated to be consisting of $50 billion 3-years, $37 billion reopened 10-years, and $21 billion reopened 30-years. And Freddie Mac will release its Primary Mortgage Market Survey. We begin the day with Agency MBS prices worse than Wednesday night by .125-.250 and the 10-year yielding 4.17 after closing yesterday at 4.12 percent; the 2-year is at 4.61.
Employment
Did you know that Houston, TX is the top area for TSAHC down payment assistance loans? Also, did you know that Mortgage Financial Services TPO (MFStpo) is the only wholesaler both TSAHC and TDHCA down payment and closing cost assistance programs to the mortgage broker community. MFStpo pioneered TSAHC for brokers and until recently, TDHCA was only available to retail LO’s. Brokers are growing with MFStpo by serving more families and referral partners and adding LO’s by recruiting with these programs. MFStpo is actively seeking to enhance support for brokers in the Houston market by hiring an experienced Account Executive. By making TSAHC and TDHCA DPA easy for brokers, MFStpo presents a compelling opportunity for AEs today. Notably, MFStpo also excels in non-DPA loans with great rates and a strong support team. Reach out to EVP John Hudson at 817.247.4766 for more info on this exciting opportunity in Houston!
“PrimeLending LOs have an exciting new mortgage solution to offer their customers looking to save money, increase home value and protect the planet: Green Home Loans from PrimeLending. It’s clear that energy efficiency is not just a trend; it’s a priority for the modern homeowner. According to a 2023 study by Thumbtack, 71 percent of homeowners consider sustainability a top priority, yet only one-third can afford the upgrades. Green Home Loans from PrimeLending is here to bridge the gap by helping borrowers finance green improvements immediately. With more than 400 mortgage solutions in our arsenal, including eco-friendly programs, we’re committed to helping our LOs not only beat the competition, but lead the way in offering the latest mortgage alternatives. If you’re looking for a sustainable career, your future may be at PrimeLending. Contact Nic Hartke for more information.”
“If you ask 50 people for their outlook on the Mortgage and Housing market in 2024, you’ll get 50 different responses (and we can attest to that!). Regardless of market conditions, our team at Pezian Search Group wants to make sure that YOUR organization is properly prepared for what’s next. Since 2010, we’ve spent much of December consulting and partnering with new and existing clients to discuss their outlook, upcoming needs, and to strategize ways to ensure ongoing success. We also take the time to uncover our candidates career goals and prepare them for growth, and we’d love to do the same for you. Reach out to us directly and let us show you how we can be a value add for your organization and in your career search. You can also connect with us on LinkedIn, and view all of our current openings here.”
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All investments carry some risk, but the difference between speculating and investing is the amount of risk involved. Speculative investments are typically short-term, and far riskier than traditional investing products and strategies, and may involve the risk of total loss.
Investing typically indicates a more long-term approach to making a profit, with an eye toward managing risk.
Defining Investing and Speculation
Speculating often describes scenarios when there’s a high chance the investment will deliver losses, but also when the investment could result in a high profit. High-risk, high-reward investments include commodities, crypto, derivatives, futures, and more.
In contrast, investing generally refers to transactions where an individual has researched an asset, and puts money into it with the hope that prices will rise over time. There are no guarantees, of course, and all types of investing include some form of risk.
Examples of Investments and Speculative Investments
Assets that are thought of as more traditional types of investments include publicly traded stocks, mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), bonds (e.g. U.S. Treasury bonds, municipal bonds, high-grade corporate bonds), and real estate.
Even some so-called alternative investments would be considered more long-term and less speculative: e.g., jewelry, art, collectibles.
Assets that are almost always considered speculative are junk bonds, options, futures, cryptocurrency, forex and foreign currencies, and investments in startup companies.
Sometimes it isn’t as simple as saying that all investments in the stock market or in exchange-traded funds or in mutual funds hold the same amount of risk, or are “definitely” classified as investments. Even within certain asset classes, there can be large variations across the speculation spectrum. 💡 Quick Tip: Before opening an investment account, know your investment objectives, time horizon, and risk tolerance. These fundamentals will help keep your strategy on track and with the aim of meeting your goals.
The Traditional Approach to Investing
When it comes to the more traditional approach to investing, individuals typically buy and hold assets in their investment portfolios or retirement accounts, with the aim of seeing reasonable, long-term gains.
Traditional forms of investing focus on the performance of the underlying business or organization, not on the day-to-day or hour-by-hour price movements of an asset.
For this reason, more traditional investors tend to rely on various forms of analysis (e.g. fundamental analysis of stocks) and analytical tools and metrics to gauge the health of a company, asset, or market sector.
Speculation: A High-Risk, High-Reward Game
The difference between speculating and investing can be nuanced and a matter of opinion. (After all, some investors view the stock market as a form of gambling.) But when traders are speculating, they are typically seeking super-high gains in a relatively short period of time: e.g., hours, days, or weeks.
In the case of commodities or futures trading, the time horizon might be longer, but the aim of making a big profit fairly quickly is at the heart of most speculation.
Speculators may also use leverage, a.k.a. margin trading, to boost their buying power and amplify gains where possible (although using leverage can also lead to steep losses).
The Psychology of Investing vs. Speculating
The psychology of a typical investor is quite different from that of a speculative investor, and again revolves around the higher tolerance for risk in pursuit of a potentially bigger reward in a very short time frame.
Long-Term Investing
Speculating
Taking calculated or minimal risks
Willing to take on high-risk endeavors
Pursuit of reasonable gains
Pursuit of abnormally high returns
Willing to invest for the long term
Willing to invest only for the short term
Uses a mix of traditional investments and strategies (e.g. stocks, bonds, funds)
Uses single strategies and alternative investments
Infrequent use of leverage/margin
Frequent use of leverage/margin
Historical Perspectives on Investing and Speculation
The history of investing and speculating has long been entwined. In the earliest days of trading thousands of years ago, most markets were focused on the exchange of tangible commodities like livestock, grain, etc. Wealthy investors might put their money into global voyages or even wars. Thus many early investors could be described as speculators.
But investing in forms of debt as a way to make money was also common, eventually leading to the bond market as we know it today.
The concept of investing in companies and focusing on longer-term gains took hold gradually. As markets became more sophisticated over the centuries, and a wider range of technologies, strategies, and financial products came into use, the division between investing and speculating became more distinct.
Recommended: What Causes a Stock Market Bubble?
Speculation History: Notable Market Bubbles and Crashes
The history of investing is rife with market bubbles, manias, and crashes. While the speculative market around tulip bulbs in 17th-century Holland is well known, as is the Great Financial Crisis here in the U.S. in 2008-09, there have been many similar financial events throughout the world — most of them driven by speculation.
What marks a bubble is a well-established series of stages driven by investor emotions like exuberance (i.e., greed) followed by panic and loss. That’s because many investors tend to be irrational, especially when in pursuit of a quick profit that seems like “a sure thing.”
Some classic examples of financial bubbles that changed the course of history:
• The South Sea Bubble (U.K., 1711 to 1720) — The South Sea company was created in 1711 to help reduce national war debt. The company stock peaked in 1720 and then crashed, taking with it the fortunes of many.
• The Roaring Twenties (U.S., 1924 to 1929) — The 1920s saw a rapid expansion of the U.S. economy, thanks to both corporations’ and consumers’ growing use of credit. Stock market speculation reached a peak in 1929, followed by the infamous crash, and the Great Depression.
• Japanese Bubble Economy (1984 to 1989) — The Japanese economy experienced a historic two-decade period of growth beginning in the 1960s, that was further fueled by financial deregulation and widespread speculation that artificially inflated the worth of many corporations and land values. By late 1989, as the government raised interest rates, the economy fell into a prolonged slowdown that took years to recover from.
• Dot-Com Bubble (1995 to 2002) — Sparked by rapid internet adoption, the dot-com boom saw the rapid growth of tech companies in the late 1990s, when the Nasdaq rose 800%. But by October 2002 it had fallen 78% from that high mark.
Key Differences Between Investing and Speculating
What can be confusing for some investors is that there is an overlap between investing in the traditional sense, and speculative investing in higher risk instruments.
And some types of investing fall into the gray area between the two. For example, options trading, commodities trading, or buying IPO stock are considered high-risk endeavors that should be reserved for more experienced investors. What makes these types of investments more speculative, again, is the shorter time frame and the overall risk level.
Time Horizon: Long-term Goals vs. Quick Gains
As noted above, investors typically take a longer view and invest for a longer time frame; speculators seek quick-turn profits within a shorter period.
That’s because more traditional investors are inclined to seek profits over time, based on the quality of their investments. This strategy at its core is a way of managing risk in order to maximize potential gains.
Speculators are more aggressive: They’re geared toward quick profits, using a single strategy or asset to deliver an outsized gain — with a willingness to accept a much higher risk factor, and the potential for steep losses.
Fundamental Analysis vs. Market Timing
As a result of these two different mindsets, investors and speculators utilize different means of achieving their ends.
Investors focused on more traditional strategies might use tools like fundamental analysis to gauge the worthiness of an investment.
Speculators don’t necessarily base their choices on the quality of a certain asset. They’re more interested in the technical analysis of securities that will help them predict and, ideally, profit from short-term price movements. While buy-and-hold investors focus on time in the market, speculators are looking to time the market. 💡 Quick Tip: How to manage potential risk factors in a self-directed investment account? Doing your research and employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging and diversification may help mitigate financial risk when trading stocks.
Real-World Implications of Investment vs. Speculation
To better understand the respective value and impact of investing vs. speculating, it helps to consider the real-world implications of each strategy.
The Impact of Speculation on Markets
It’s important to remember that speculation occurs in many if not all market sectors. So speculation isn’t bad, nor does it always add to volatility — although in certain circumstances it can.
For example, some point to IPO shares as an example of how speculative investors, who are looking for quick profits, may help fuel the volatility of IPO stock.
Speculation does add liquidity to the markets, though, which facilitates trading. And speculative investors often inject cash into companies that need it, which provides a vital function in the economy.
Strategic Approaches to Investment
Whether an investor chooses a more traditional route or a more speculative one, or a combination of these strategies, comes down to that person’s skill, goals, and ability to tolerate risk.
Diversification and Asset Allocation
For more traditional, longer-term investors, there are two main tools in their toolkit that help manage risk over time.
• Diversification is the practice of investing in more than one asset class, and also diversifying within that asset class. Studies have shown that by diversifying the assets in your portfolio, you may offset a certain amount of investment risk and thereby improve returns.
• Asset allocation is the practice of balancing a portfolio between more aggressive and more conservative holdings, also with the aim of growth while managing risk.
When Does Speculation Make Sense?
Speculation makes sense for a certain type of investor, with a certain level of experience and risk profile. It’s not so much that speculative investing always makes sense in Cases A, B, or C. It’s more about an investor mastering certain speculative strategies to the degree that they feel comfortable with the level of risk they’re taking on.
The Takeaway
One way to differentiate between investment and speculation is through the lens of probability. If an asset is purchased that carries a reasonable probability of profit over time, it’s an investment. If an asset carries a higher likelihood of significant fluctuation and volatility, it is speculation.
A long-term commitment to a broad stock market investment, like an equity-based index fund, is generally considered an investment. Historical data shows us that the likelihood of seeing gains over long periods, like 20 years or more, is high.
Compare that with a trader who purchases a single stock with the expectation that the price will surge that very day (or even that year!) — which is far more difficult to predict and has a much lower probability of success.
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While investors can buy both secured bonds or unsecured bonds, the main difference between the two is the amount of risk for the investor. Secured bonds are secured with collateral, e.g. by an asset or assets of commensurate value. Unsecured bonds are not secured with collateral, but investors who buy these bonds put their faith in the creditworthiness of the issuing company.
An example of a secured bond might be a mortgage bond, which is secured by the value of the underlying mortgage as well as the payments on that mortgage. An unsecured bond might be issued based on the promise of revenue. For example, a municipal bond that’s issued to raise money for a new hospital.
Key Points
• Secured bonds have collateral backing, reducing risk for investors, while unsecured bonds rely on the creditworthiness of the issuer.
• Secured bonds may be backed by physical assets or income streams, such as mortgage bonds or revenue bonds.
• Unsecured bonds, like U.S. Treasury Bonds, depend on the issuer’s creditworthiness and are riskier than secured bonds.
• Secured bonds offer the benefit of potential collection from issuer assets in case of default, but the process can be complex.
• Investors should consider their risk tolerance and goals when choosing between secured and unsecured bonds for their portfolios.
What Are Secured Bonds?
A secured bond is one that has an asset as collateral to back up a person’s investment. This asset can be something physical, such as a piece of property or equipment, or an income stream. A government agency might issue bonds to raise money to build a bridge, which is a common example of how bonds work.
In the government bridge-building example, the bonds could be secured — but, in this case, not by the bridge itself; rather, by the future revenue stream that will be generated after construction is complete when a toll will be charged for people to drive over that bridge.
This type of bond can sometimes be referred to as a revenue bond. These are often considered non-resource — meaning that, if the source of revenue dries up, the investor often doesn’t have an ability to get paid.
And a bond can actually be secured by both a physical asset and an income stream. An example of bonds that are secured by both is a bundle of mortgage loans. This has the physical property being mortgaged by borrowers as collateral, as well as the income stream that comes in when people make their mortgage payments.
A key benefit of choosing a secure bond is that, if the entity issuing the bond defaults on making payments to bond purchasers, then the investors can attempt to collect from the assets of the issuer to get their money.
The process isn’t necessarily as straightforward as an investor owning or buying bonds in default might like, however, in part because the collateralized assets may not be significant enough in worth to cover the totality of what’s owed — and in part because issuers may challenge the investors’ right to those assets. So, in reality, it can take weeks to months, or even longer, to actually get bond-related money from an issuer in default.
Investors who want to purchase secured bonds typically seek them out from corporations and municipalities. That doesn’t mean, however, that all corporate bonds are secured; in fact, many of these types of bonds are in fact unsecured.
💡 Quick Tip: Before opening any investment account, consider what level of risk you are comfortable with. If you’re not sure, start with more conservative investments, and then adjust your portfolio as you learn more.
What Are Unsecured Bonds?
Unsecured bonds are those that don’t have assets backing them. Instead, investors are given the “full faith and credit” of the entity issuing them that the bonds will be paid upon, as promised. U.S. Treasury Bonds, for example, are considered unsecured (although these are also considered one of the lowest risk investments available).
If the issuer of an unsecured bond defaults, owners of these bonds would still have a claim on the issuer’s assets, but are paid only after holders of secured bonds are paid.
From a risk and return perspective, it might seem as though secured bonds present a lower risk because they have collateral behind them. There may be some truth to that, but investors wanting low risk often buy Treasury bonds — unsecured investments — because the U.S. government has made all scheduled payments over the past 200+ plus years.
When choosing what bonds to buy, here’s guidance: as a generalization, debt that’s considered riskier will offer more attractive interest rates. Those backed by entities with strong economic profiles will have relatively lower rates. And, although “secured” sounds more reliable than “unsecured,” the reality is that a secured bond of “junk” quality is actually riskier than an investment grade unsecured bond.
A person’s goals when investing, including when choosing bonds, should help to guide which ones make sense to purchase.
Check out SoFi’s Investing 101 Center for strategies, news, and resources.
Secured vs Unsecured Bonds
There are pros and cons to investing in both secured and unsecured bonds. Investors would be wise to take everything into consideration. Here’s a quick look at the pros and cons
Secured vs. Unsecured Bonds: Pros
Secured bonds
Unsecured bonds
Security
Potential for higher returns
Low default risk
May be more choices on the market
Good diversification assets
May be a good middle-ground investment for less risk-averse investors
Secured vs. Unsecured Bonds: Cons
Secured bonds
Unsecured bonds
Subject to interest rate risks
Higher-risk
Not completely risk-free
More volatile
Lower potential returns
Subject to interest rate risks
Benefits of Investing in Bonds
In general, investing in either secured or unsecured bonds can have some benefits. Namely, that they provide a source of income, and can reduce portfolio volatility to certain degrees. But there are some differences, too.
Benefits of Investing in Secured Bonds
Bonds pay a fixed interest rate, typically paying investors twice a year, which creates the income that a bond holder may want. Plus, because they are typically lower in risk than stocks, they can help to reduce the overall levels of risk in an investor’s portfolio.
Because a person’s risk tolerance plays a significant role in the type of investing that is best for them, investors can determine their risk tolerance as a way of analyzing the degrees of risk that feel comfortable for them. Again, secured bonds are among the safest investments out there — but they’re not completely risk-free.
Benefits of Investing in Unsecured Bonds
The main benefit of investing in unsecured bonds versus secured bonds is the potential for higher or better returns. Since unsecured bonds are riskier, there’s a potential for higher rewards — the old adage is true, that there’s a correlation between risk and reward.
While unsecured bonds aren’t the riskiest investment on the market, they tend to be riskier than their secured counterparts.
How Bonds Factor Into Asset Allocation
Savvy investors typically create diversified portfolios, which contain a mix of assets, often including stocks and bonds with varying levels of risk and reward.
Diversification is the financial version of not putting all eggs in one basket, with asset allocation referring to the amount of money invested into each type of asset class within a person’s portfolio.
Individual investors can each decide what asset allocation makes the most sense for them, perhaps including 60% stocks and 40% bonds, as just one example.
Factors involved in determining asset allocation include an investor’s
• Financial goals
• Risk tolerance
• Investing timelines (when retirement is looming, for example, asset allocations may be different than for a younger investor)
By looking at these factors, along with possible investment options and their historical performances, an investor can choose a mix of assets that seem to dovetail best with his or her unique goals, challenges, and overall financial situation.
💡 Quick Tip: How to manage potential risk factors in a self-directed brokerage account? Doing your research and employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging and diversification may help mitigate financial risk when trading stocks.
Asset Allocation Models
There are four broad asset allocation models that can be shared to show varying investment strategies. Some, but not all of them, typically include bonds.
Capital Preservation Portfolio
As the name suggests, an investor creating this type of portfolio wants to preserve capital, and is averse to losing money, even short term.
This can be the type of portfolio created for investors who have short-term goals (meaning, those intended to be accomplished within one year), such as someone building an emergency fund, or saving to buy a car. Investors with capital preservation goals might put an entire portfolio in a money market fund because stocks and bonds alike can have short-term losses.
Income-producing Portfolio
Investors using this strategy typically focus on generating income, rather than portfolio growth, often because they will be living off investment income to some degree. For example, someone who is already retired might invest in income producing vehicles to supplement a monthly pension.
This person’s portfolio might include bonds, whether secured or unsecured, from government entities or corporations with a history of steady profitability. Other elements of the portfolio might include shares of stocks that pay dividends and/or real estate investment trusts. Investing in I bonds is another possibility.
Growth Portfolio
As a third investment model, a growth strategy can be chosen by people who want long-term portfolio growth. These investors may be willing to take more risk than those who fit into one of the two previous models described if they believe they can receive higher returns.
This investor may still be working and therefore not need to have their portfolios generate income yet. A portfolio focusing on growth may largely or even fully have stock investments.
Balanced Portfolio
This type of portfolio can be a blend of an income-producing and a growth portfolio. People of all ages along the investment journey may choose to use a balanced approach to manage portfolio volatility, and this type often contains a mix of common stocks with investment-grade bonds.
This type of portfolio, in other words, is created to balance assets that grow over time with less volatility with those that can produce growth.
Stock and Bond Allocation “Rule”
Financial professionals sometimes use formulas to determine the best mix of stocks and bonds in a portfolio for an investor. One such “rule” is to subtract the investor’s age from 110.
The number that remains may indicate the percentage of a portfolio that should go into buying stocks. So, while a 30 year old may use this to put 80% of funds into stocks, a 60 year old — using the same formula — would put in only 50%.
The remainder could be invested into a more conservative choice: bonds. Because different people have different risk tolerances, this is not a hard and fast rule; rather, it’s a starting point when deciding how aggressive or conservative an investor wants a portfolio to be.
💡 Recommended: Conservative Investing Explained
The Takeaway
Secured bonds and unsecured bonds differ in one key way: One is secured by collateral, and the other is not. That plays a role in how risky each type of bond is, and thus, can inform an investor’s strategy. Both types of bonds may have a place in an investor’s portfolio.
Portfolios may be rebalanced more often if an asset class experiences a significant change, with the goal always being to keep an investor’s portfolio on track with stated goals. Bonds of all types can be a part of that, but it may be best to consult with a financial professional for advice.
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For a limited time, opening and funding an Active Invest account gives you the opportunity to get up to $1,000 in the stock of your choice.
FAQ
What is the difference between secured bonds and unsecured bonds?
The main difference between secured bonds and unsecured bonds is that secured bonds are secured by collateral, whereas unsecured bonds are more or less dependent on the issuers’ creditworthiness.
What does it mean when a bond is secured?
A secured bond refers to the fact that the issuer of the bond has put up some sort of collateral. In that case, the bonds are less risky, because if the issuer defaults, the collateral can be sold to pay back bondholders.
What is the purpose of an unsecured bond?
Unsecured bonds allow companies or organizations to borrow money without putting up any collateral – which can be extremely helpful if they don’t have any. That makes them riskier, however, than secured bonds.
SoFi Invest® The information provided is not meant to provide investment or financial advice. Also, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investment decisions should be based on an individual’s specific financial needs, goals, and risk profile. SoFi can’t guarantee future financial performance. Advisory services offered through SoFi Wealth, LLC. SoFi Securities, LLC, member FINRA / SIPC . SoFi Invest refers to the three investment and trading platforms operated by Social Finance, Inc. and its affiliates (described below). Individual customer accounts may be subject to the terms applicable to one or more of the platforms below. 1) Automated Investing—The Automated Investing platform is owned by SoFi Wealth LLC, an SEC registered investment advisor (“Sofi Wealth“). Brokerage services are provided to SoFi Wealth LLC by SoFi Securities LLC, an affiliated SEC registered broker dealer and member FINRA/SIPC, (“Sofi Securities).
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For additional disclosures related to the SoFi Invest platforms described above, including state licensure of Sofi Digital Assets, LLC, please visit www.sofi.com/legal.
Neither the Investment Advisor Representatives of SoFi Wealth, nor the Registered Representatives of SoFi Securities are compensated for the sale of any product or service sold through any SoFi Invest platform. Information related to lending products contained herein should not be construed as an offer or prequalification for any loan product offered by SoFi Bank, N.A.
Financial Tips & Strategies: The tips provided on this website are of a general nature and do not take into account your specific objectives, financial situation, and needs. You should always consider their appropriateness given your own circumstances.
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